Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 3rd February)

Best Days: Saturday and Sunday.

Recap: 

Fun conditions were on offer across the open beaches on Tuesday, with options in the 2-3ft range, remaining clean until just before lunchtime under peristent offshore breezes. Today, the surf has faded, however breezes once again remained offshore for the best part of the morning.

This week (Thursday 4th - Friday 5th):

Breezes are due to increase from the south this evening with the passage of a front moving over the region.

With these gusty southerlies we should south facing beaches build this afternoon and evening to a low quality peak on Thursday morning at around 2ft. Due to the local nature of this windswell, the low quality surf should subside just as quickly as it arrived, fading steadily throughout the day.

A more substantial southerly groundswell is then expected to pulse across south facing beaches on Friday, building to the 2-3ft range at the magnets, while open beaches pick up long range east/northeasterly energy.

An elongated but relatively weak northeasterly fetch has been working on the Tasman Sea over the past few days as a developing low and ridge over New Zealand interact with each other. As a result, east/northeasterly energy from this fetch is due to build to a peak on Friday in the 2ft range across open beaches.

The morning session looks to be under a light southerly breeze, before an easterly seabreeze develops during the afternoon, again easing late.

This weekend (Saturday 6th - Sunday 7th):

This northeasterly fetch is due to intensify later this evening and into the early hours of Thursday morning as the pressure gradient tightens between a developing central Tasman low and the stubborn ridge over New Zealand. 

Northeasterly fetches of 25-30kts are currently blowing and are set to increase into Thursday with core fetches up to 35kts.

As a result, open beaches should see ebbs and pulses between 2-3ft of east/northeasterly swell on Sunday.

The lingering southerly groundswell however is expected to fade on Saturday morning from the 2-3ft range across the south swell magnets, further on Sunday from the 1-2ft range.

Conditions should be clean and fun each morning of the weekend with light/variable-offshore breezes preceding a northeasterly seabreeze each afternoon.

Next week (Monday 8th onward):

Small hints of southerly swell should pulse across south facing beaches on Monday off the back of a smaller, weaker frontal progression which is due to move south of Tasmania on Saturday. As for size, it’s only expected to be modest with occasional sets in the 1-2ft range.

Meanwhile, small amounts easterly energy off the tail of the weekend’s swell should also be breaking across open beaches, again just in the 1ft+ range.

Before the easterly energy dries up altogether however, a small east/southeastelry fetch over Cook Strait, although smaller and weaker than previous models runs, still looks to provide a subtle pulse to around 1-2ft of sideband energy on Tuesday.

The pattern of light offshore breezes during the early morning sessions continues into next week, with north/northeasterly seabreezes becoming gusty each afternoon.