Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Friday 20th Novermber)

Best Days: Sunday afternoon, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday

Recap: Nothing of significance with small to tiny swells and unsurfable conditions

This weekend (Saturday 21st - Sunday 22nd):

Early stages of the weekend look pretty ordinary in terms of surf, with a small mix of southerly energy providing options in the 1-2ft range for the south swell magnets.

Breezes are likely to be light/variable for the best part of Saturday tending light easterly throughout the afternoon.

Sunday holds better prospects with a solid southerly groundswell on the cards. A strong and broad frontal progression is due to move to the south of Tasmania on Saturday morning and across southern parts of the Tasman Sea throughout the afternoon/evening.

Core west/southwesterly breezes of 35-45kts are expected to generate a southerly swell which should build to the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches on Sunday afternoon. This swell will have an element of west in the mix hence the range in sizes. However, periods in the 16 second range should aid in refraction, allowing open beaches to receive a small amount of energy.

Northwesterly breezes are likely to be dominating across all coasts in the morning, persisting throughout the day. It’s looking good for a surf before the working begins once again, so pencil it in.

Next week (Monday 23rd onward):

A second pulse is due to fill in on Monday morning generated by a second front due to move south of Tasmania on Sunday. The surf should build from the 3ft range in the morning to the 3-4ft range by the afternoon at the more exposed south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere.

The wind outlook continues to look great for a wave with light westerlies persisting throughout the morning. A light northeasterly breeze has a moderate chance of kicking in around Bicheno, but even then, it’s impacts will be subtle.

The surf is then expected to fade from the 2-3ft range throughout Tuesday morning, however favourable northwesterly breezes will continue, allowing for plenty of opportunities for a smaller wave.

The northwesterly airstream is expected to continue throughout Wednesday, although potentially becoming fairly fresh. Conditions are expected to be clean, but some surrounding topography wouldn’t hurt, just to take the edge of those gusty breezes.

A broader, but less defined frontal progression moving over the Southern Ocean on Monday is expected to provide yet another pulse for Wednesday, with the surf likely to build to the 3ft range at the south swell magnets.

All this frontal activity, plus more later in the week is as a result of the long wave trough becoming more active over eastern Australia. Later in the week and into the following weekend we can expect more solid southerly energy generated by these frequent fronts.

Generally speaking the westerly airflow is only set to continue with occasional periods of light northerly breezes. There should be plenty of opportunities for a wave in the coming days.

More details next week.