Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 28th October)

Best Days: Thursday morning and Friday morning.

Recap: 

A strong southerly swell increased throughout Tuesday to the 3-4ft range at exposed south facing beaches, however the quality was poor as a gusty southerly breeze dominated throughout the day. More protected southern corners offered smaller cleaner options.

Conditions improved today with period of light/variable winds along southern parts of the coast. South facing beaches were offering clean peaks in the 2-3ft range before breezes swung onshore and had an impact on the quality.

This week (Thursday 29th - Friday 30th):

Poorly aligned frontal activity over the past few days will maintain an element of southerly energy for south facing beaches on Thursday with peaks in the 2ft range. Light southeasterly winds in the morning look to be light enough to go variable allowing conditions to be clean. As the day progresses, breeze should tending north/northeasterly, although remaining light.

Similarly, Friday is likely to hold in the 2ft range as yet another front moves across the Southern Ocean today. Breezes are looking good for the morning session, prevailing from the northwest at first, increasing from the north/northeast later in the day.

This weekend (Saturday 31st - Sunday 1st):

A strong ridge over the Tasman is likely to interact with a deep low pressure trough moving over inland Australia causing the pressure gradient to tighten along the east coast of mainland Australia. As a result, a northerly airflow will increase just off the coast of NSW and over eastern parts of Bass Strait on Saturday morning whipping up a north/northeasterly swell increasing in the afternoon to the 2-3ft range at open beaches.

The window of opportunity is looking brief on Saturday morning, before the aforementioned breeze increases.

Sunday morning will see the peak of this swell with open beaches offering options in the 3ft range, gradually fading throughout the day. Fortunately, northwesterly breezes will prevail early leading to clean/workable options preceding a late morning/early afternoon seabreeze.

Next week (Monday 2nd onward):

A gusty southerly change will move up the coast on Sunday evening generating short range southerly swell, likely peaking on Monday morning. South facing beaches are likely to be greeted with poor quality peaks in the 3-4ft range in the morning, accompanied by fresh southerly breezes. Only the protected southern corners will have workable options, but expect a fair discrepancy in size.

Much stronger and broader fetches associated with this change will be working on the Southern Ocean throughout Saturday night and Sunday steering westerly core winds of 50-55kts.

This intense system is likely to whip up a solid southerly groundswell due Tuesday morning where south facing beaches should see long period sets in the 4ft range. Unfortunately a straight easterly breeze will be impacting virtually all coasts for the majority of the day making it tricky to find a clean wave. 

Wednesday morning holds better prospects of light/variable-offshores int he early morning as the swell fades.

More detail to come in Friday’s notes.