Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th April)

Best Days: Southern corners Tuesday morning, protected spots Wednesday and Thursday mornings, Friday morning, Saturday morning, late Sunday and Monday

Recap

Friday's solid S/SE swell continued to drop from a small clean 2-3ft on Saturday morning before becoming tiny to 0.5-1ft into Sunday. Today the coast was near flat but a new E/NE swell should have been seen into this afternoon.

This week (Apr 7 - 10)

This afternoon's increase in E/NE swell from a deepening but south-east tracking Tasman Low through the Tasman Sea is expected to peak this evening and ease through tomorrow from an inconsistent 2ft to possibly 3ft at north-east facing beaches.

Winds will be fresh from the S/SE though as a surface trough moves in from the west and starts to deepen off the NSW South Coast. Southern corners will be the pick and a weak S/SE windswell should develop through the day to 2-3ft or so across south facing beaches.

The low is expected to deepen through Wednesday with a fetch of S/SE gales developing just to our east-northeast and with this we should see some good E/SE swell spreading off the low into us. The swell should build to 3-4ft across open beaches and peak Thursday to a better 3-5ft across open beaches.

Winds will improve Wednesday with a S/SW tending S/SE breeze, favouring southern corners, with a better SW tending S/SE wind Thursday.

The low should weaken through Thursday and push off to the east resulting in the swell easing Friday from 3-4ft or so under W/SW tending E/SE winds.

Longer term we're expected to see a strong node of the Long Wave Trough strengthening across the southern Tasman Sea over the weekend.

What this will do is strengthen and aim a series of vigorous polar fronts up through our southern swell window, through the Tasman Sea.

The strongest of this progression is forecast to project a fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW winds through our southern swell window, generating a large S/SW groundswell for later Sunday and Monday in the 6ft+ range, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.