Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 20th February)

Best Days: Early Saturday morning, Monday when winds start shifting, Tuesday in southern corners, Wednesday morning

Recap

Tiny waves yesterday gave way to a mix of long-range NE trade-swell and NE windswell this morning under offshores before a shallow SE change pushed through.

This week and next week (Feb 19 - 26)

The movement and development of a deepening surface trough off the Northern NSW Coast and the combination of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia moving into the mix tomorrow has been slowed somewhat. Also the absorbtion of Marcia into the trough and resultant Tasman Low now looks to sit further north than ideal for us which will reduce the swell potential for our region while also push back the timing.

Through tomorrow inconsistent levels of NE trade-swell should continue at an inconsistent 2-3ft across open beaches, while Sunday and Monday should offer more size and consistency as a building NE windswell also comes into the mix.

North-east facing beaches should offer more consistent 3ft sets Sunday ahead of bigger 3-4ft+ sets Monday morning ahead of an afternoon S'ly change.

Winds will be N'ly ahead of the change, swinging temporarily W'ly through the middle of the day Monday ahead of the change, so a surf from mid-late morning looks to be the pick.

Once the change moves through the NE windswell will back away, but we should see some acute N/NE groundswell filling in Tuesday from the Tasman Low reaching a peak in intensity through Sunday, aiming a fetch of NE gales towards us.

This swell will only really impact north facing beaches with any size, with inconsistent 4-5ft sets due at its peak. S'ly winds in the wake of Monday's change should favour these locations, so Tuesday is worth taking a day off for.

After Sunday the Tasman Low is now forecast to push back up the Northern NSW coast, out of our swell window and with this we'll see the swell back away steadily from an inconsist3 3-4ft Wednesday morning with light variable winds early.

Longer term it will be back to pulses of NE windswell into the end of the week, but we'll have another look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!