Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Wed Jan 29th)

This week and next week (Jan 29-Feb7)

Central QLD: Surf every day for at least a week

Fun waves continue. 

The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. Still plenty of uncertainty there, with any large swell subject to extremely low confidence in specifics. We’ll see E’ly tradeswells continue across CQ into and over the weekend and early next week at a minimum. More significant E’ly swells are still on the table but contingent on low pressure developments next week.

A slow build in E’ly swell is expected for next week as high pressure sits in the Tasman, with a broad SE’ly wind field established in the Coral Sea and one, two or three low pressure systems stretched out along the monsoon trough line from the Coral Sea into the South Pacific.

Following that we’ll be hoping one of the tropical low pressure centres starts to slide southwards into the Tasman Sea. Models are still all over the place regarding this prospect although the latest EC run is suggesting such a scenario which may see better quality and sizier E swells later next week and into the weekend. Major revisions are still on the table as well so keep options open if you can. 

At a minimum we’ll see a long lasting E’ly swell generated from the tradewind band into next weekend. 

Keep tabs on the f/cast notes and comments below the line- we’ll be seeing lots of model fluctuations as this highly dynamic monsoon phase evolves over the next week.

Seeya Fri.