Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Fri 23rd Dec)

This weekend and next week (Dec23-Dec30)

Central QLD: Active surf pattern ahead as low pressure forms in Coral Sea

Nothing much expected for the Xmas weekend as surf takes a breather. Tiny surf less than a foot and light E’ly winds make for a better fishing than surfing weekend.

By Boxing Day the broad blocking pattern will be setting with a dominant, slow moving high in the Tasman and low pressure expected to form along the monsoon trough line in the Coral Sea and in the South Pacific near the North Island. That will see at least dual swell producing fetches aimed at the Eastern Seaboard (see below).

Expect 20 kt winds to form in the Capricorn Channel Boxing Day with surf building during the a’noon into the 1ft range.

Further increases then occur Tues-Thurs with surf building into the 2-3ft range at open exposures on the Capricorn Coast, smaller elsewhere.

Later next week surf will depend on the movement of low pressure in the Coral Sea with at least one major model seeing low pressure hovering in the Southern Coral Sea as we go through the NY weekend and into the first week of Jan. 

Under that scenario we’re looking at solid 3-4ft surf across the NYE weekend and holding into the first couple of days of Jan with continuing SE winds.

There is low confidence in timing and size due to models struggling to resolve the complex low pressure development along the monsoon trough line.

Get ready for an extended surf pattern and expect daily revisions as we dial in the movement and strength of the E’ly fetches developing next week and into the New Year. 

Happy Xmas everyone and have a great weekend!