Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 11th May)

This week and next week (May11-20)

Central QLD: Solid surf pattern unfolding as low drifts through Coral Sea

Plenty of Surf on the menu with increasing size through today.

No great changes to the front end of this weather/surf event, which is starting to kick into gear now. The latter stages have been wound back a few notches, reducing the expected wave heights over the peak of the swell although we are still expecting big surf. Let’s take a look at it.

A large 1037 hPa high is occupying the Central Tasman Sea with a solid ridge established along most of the East Coast. A long interior trough and developing trough/low off the North QLD coast are tightening the pressure gradient along most of the ridge, bringing fresh onshore winds and a deep E’ly pattern to the majority of Tasman Sea and Central/Southern Coral Sea. A trough forms a surface low later today off the NQLD coast, drifting south through Thurs and Friday before fading out and tracking back NE towards New Caledonia.

Expect building swell in the short run with size heading north into the 4ft range, under fresh E’ly winds.

That size builds further into Fri with size in the 4-6ft range although winds will from the E, although they will ease through the day as local pressure gradients ease. 

The weekend will still have a heap of swell as the low drifts off towards New Caledonia. Expect surf in the 4-6ft range through Sat, with light winds, with a N’ly bias.

Sunday sees more light winds with surf easing back during the day, with size dropping back down to the 3ft range during the day. There should be plenty of great waves over the weekend.

Into next week and a weak trade flow through the Coral Sea sees light winds and fun surf through CQ, especially Mon and Tues, before it dribbles away to not much to end the week.

Check back Fri for the latest.