Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Fri 7 Jan)

This week and next (Jan7 – Jan14)

Central QLD: A few small pulses next week, favouring open, exposed breaks.

The remnants of ex TC Seth have slowly fizzled out on the edge of Fraser Island, with the decaying low dragging in a generally light N’ly flow along the Capricorn Coast and tiny/flat surf being the result.

That pattern is expected to continue over the weekend. 

A new high slides into the Tasman early next week, with a ridge re-strengthening along the QLD coast. 

This sets up a good coverage of tradewinds through the Southern and Central Coral Sea, extending out to New Caledonia, where a tropical low located between Fiji and Vanuatu is located. 

The good news is that set-up is expected to provide a couple of rideable pulses of surf for the region, especially the most open breaks on the Burnett coast.

The bad news is compared to Wednesday’s notes, windspeeds in the tradewind fetch are down a notch so surf potential is diminished likewise. 

The Coral Sea source should see surf lift a notch into the 1-1.5ft range Tues, bigger 2ft sets on exposed breaks, holding into Wed. Winds will be SE/ESE and moderate during this time.

A slightly stronger pulse of longer period swell for the exposed breaks is expected Fri. This will be generated by stronger winds in the swell window as the tropical low moves south early next week. Wave models are likely under-calling this source, with some 2ft, 2-3ft sets on the favourable tide stages likely at exposed breaks. More sheltered spots on the Mackay and Capricorn coasts are likely to stay in the 1-1.5ft range.

Longer term and models are toying with the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later next week. With such a long lead time confidence is very low in making any surf predictions from this scenario. Check back Mon and we’ll have a much better idea how this is shaping up.

Have a great weekend.