Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Fri 24 Dec)

This week and next (Dec 24 – 31)

Central QLD: High pressure surge and possible tropical low/cyclone next week offers plenty of surf potential to end the year.

Tiny surf is expected to continue over the Christmas weekend and into early next week.

Next week offers a major pattern change for the QLD coast as a dominant high pressure system drifting E of Tasmania sets up a strong high pressure ridge along the coast. This should see 20-30knot SE winds start to develop north of Fraser Wed. This alone should see short period 2ft windswell develop later Wed on the Bundaberg to Gladstone breaks, extending Northwards to CQ during Thurs. 

The curve ball is a tropical cyclone or low crossing from the Gulf. 

Models have been interested in the start of the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) as the year ends, suggesting a tropical low tracking across the Northern Territory into the Gulf of Carpenteria and then across Cape York Peninsula into the Coral Sea towards the end of next week.  Major models significantly diverge on the fate and surf potential of the tropical low once it enters the sphere of the Coral Sea. 

EC maintains the low inland through the QLD interior, with a limited fetch infeeding into the system, tracking down the QLD coast and possibly stalling on the SEQLD coast as the system washes out. 

That suggests a steep increase in local E/NE swell possibly Thurs into Fri as the infeeding fetch tracks down the CQ coast past  Fraser Island into the SEQLD swell window. Under that scenario CQ would see surf build quickly into the 3-4ft range Thurs, possibly building further from the E on Fri before it eased quickly New Years Day as the fetch moved out of the swell window.

GFS stalls the low off the North QLD coast, with another separate low possibly undergoing cyclogenesis west of Vanuatu. The cradling high sees a long fetch of E/SE winds form across the Coral Sea, with excellent potential for fun E swell to eventually develop through the region, favouring the Burnett coast for most size. Size should build into the 2-3ft range Thursday, building further Fri.  Modelling shows the fetch extending and strengthening as any potential cyclone drifts down into the cradling high pressure ridge, maintaining fun waves into the first week of Jan.

Have a great Xmas!