Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 16th August)

Best Days: Every day until the swell becomes smaller Monday and Tuesday morning

This week and next (Aug 17 - 26)

We're currently seeing fun levels of S/SW groundswell impacting the islands, generated by a flurry of mid-latitude frontal activity west-southwest west WA over the weekend.

Swell magnets open to south swell should be picking up 6ft to possibly 8ft sets, smaller on the Bukit reefs due to the southerly direction.

Wednesday and Thursday should see the swell hanging around the same size as reinforcing pulses of similar sized long-period S/SW groundswell energy fill in. There may be ebbs and pulses moving around each phase of swell and the tides, with a drop in size due Friday.

A new consistent mid-period S/SW swell is due Saturday, generated by a weakening but north projecting polar front from the Heard Island region yesterday, towards us today.

The shorter-period swell will arrive through Saturday and not refract into more protected spots as well, with a touch less size than the models are forecasting expected. South swell magnets should kick back to 6ft to occasionally 8ft, easing steadily through Sunday and Monday, bottoming out Tuesday morning.

Moderate to fresh E/SE trades are due through the rest of this week (variable early each morning) with lighter SE winds from Sunday into early next week.

Into next week we've got a couple of long-range and inconsistent SW groundswells due across the region.

These will be generated by a strong but distant polar fronts firing up between South Africa and Heard Island. The large distance between us and the swell source will result in a fair bit of swell decay and loss of consistency.

The first pulse should build later Tuesday and peak Wednesday to an inconsistent 5-6ft across exposed breaks, with a secondary slightly larger kick Thursday to 6ft to possibly 8ft. A drop in size is then due Friday, steadying through the weekend. Beyond this there's nothing too significant on the cards, but check back Thursday for an update.

Wilko and Gabriel Medina escape the doldrums for a tropical swell salvation. The latest instalment of The Search is live now.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph