It's one of the strongest N'ly local fetches we've seen in a while and will consequently deliver a punchy, sizeable NE windswell during the middle of the week.
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We’ve got a strong, expansive front passing through the Tasman at present will which supply some small pulses of S swell over the coming days. High pressure over NSW is moving NE into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow presently developing.
High cells are now tending to move NE as they enter the Tasman, bringing N’ly episodes which were rare through our triple La Niña but are becoming common as we enter El Niño proper. Small, combination swells and some light wind periods pad out the rest of the week with a more entrenched N’ly episode next week.
The high pressure belt is behaving in typical spring fashion- tracking NE as it enters the Tasman with episodic N’lies. We’ve got a small fetch out of Cook Strait at present from a decaying low pressure system, and small, compact low about to enter the Tasman. Combined with some swell from a tradewind band feeding into a long trough we’ll see concurrent small swells from these sources.
A tradewind band thickens up in the South Pacific over the weekend and tilts more E/NE as winds feed into a long trough. That should see E'ly swell bump up a notch into Tues and Wed.
Strong SE surge brings plenty of short range swell with E'ly tradewind swell continuing to chug away
High pressure is now close to New Zealand, with an advancing trough and cold front bringing a fresh S’ly change, expected to generate a strong SE surge up the sub-tropical coast as a new high moves into the Bight and strengthens. Once the new high high moves into the Tasman over the weekend it’ll set up a blocking pattern but we’re expecting a few small S pulses leading up to that although winds look fickle. E’ly trade-wind swells continue at small levels into the short/medium term.
A tradewind band has slowly weakened and contracted eastwards but is expected to remain slow moving this week, maintaining a fun signal of E-E/NE swell.
A mixed bag still expected this weekend with residual S swell trains and building E-E/NE swells from a broad, angular tropical depression centred around New Caledonia.
We still have a large (1032hPa) high slow moving over NSW directing light N’lies over temperate NSW and SE winds in the sub-tropics, extending out to a tradewind fetch adjacent to New Caledonia. A slow moving frontal progression is gradually working it’s way clear of New Zealand longitudes while sending pulses of S’ly groundswell our way.
A big dominant high (1032hPa) is sitting over SE Australia, with a series of powerful fronts passing well to the south and the progression slowed in New Zealand longitudes. The high is slow moving, setting up a dichotomy with N’ly winds across temperate NSW and a more SE flow in a ridge along the sub-tropics. Across all regions we’ll see pulses of S’ly groundswell this week from the deep fetches located in the Far Southern Tasman.