Early Forecast: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal
The MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal
March 6th - 16th, 2024
All dates are local Portugal time
After the high that was the Hawaiian leg of the Championship Tour, with dreamy days at both Pipe and Sunset, Portugal looks set to serve a slap of reality. Often prone to troubling weather, particularly this late in the surf season, the waiting period is playing to seasonal script: lots of swell, lots of wind, little of it good.
The contest may well end up another scrap-fest in brown-water closeouts, but then again, it was during one of those scrap-fests that Callum Robson scored an esky last year.
Let's dive in and try to pin down some figures.
Before we do, however, a quick refresher.
The beach at Superturbos is angled to the west-southwest while also being tucked in behind the Peniche headland that stretches out to the north-west. The swell window is open to swells from the south around to the northwest, though sheltering reduces size as the swell direction moves north of west.
The wave owes its shape to offshore bathymetry so there's a sweet spot for size: Too small and the energy doesn't feel the undulations, so it breaks like any other suburban beachbreak, yet if it gets too big the place gets overrun by energy. The Goldilocks size is 4-6 foot - up to 8 foot if it's perfect
Offshore is north to south-east, and it can tolerate cross-shores when under about 15knts or if the primary direction is running away from the wind.
This coming weekend, just before the start of the waiting period, a large northwest groundswell will arrive, though winds will be cross-onshore, hard on Saturday, less so on Sunday, yet either way spoiling what otherwise would've been a great warm-up swell.
The funky weekend wind - and Portugal cops them a bit at this time of year - will be thanks to the swell-generating storms projecting south and proximate to Portugal's coast, bringing lots of swell and lots of westerly winds too. Ideally, North Atlantic storms spawning off North America swing east and then north-east, providing generous amounts of north-west swell, and with the storm remaining distant the local winds are more liable to blow northwest to northeast.
Alas, we're seeing a pattern where North Atlantic storms swing in from the north and keep tracking south-east towards Portuguese waters.
Knowing this, the key will be finding the windows of lighter, more favourable winds in between the frontal systems.
Token shot of pumping Supertubos - this one with boats! (WSL)
On the heels of the weekend's large surf, a new west-northwest swell is due on Tuesday, which is the day before the start of the waiting period. The swell will ease into Wednesday and likely provide the Woz with something they haven't had this year: action on the first day of the waiting period.
Starting out with 4-6ft waves and cross-offshore wind from the south, Wednesday is one of the more settled days in the immediate period. Unless the forecast does an about-face, we should expect that to be a contest day.
Similarly, Thursday should also be clean-ish, and though some reinforcing swell will make landfall the size will be slightly down on the day before.
The outlook beyond here becomes harder to pin down. One thing we can be sure of is that the North Atlantic Ocean will remain active, multiple storms will spawn off Newfoundland, though whether they stay at arms-length and allow good wind or advance on Portugal with storm winds remains to be seen.
We'll have more idea on the exact timings of the incoming swells, sizes and local winds over the coming week so keep an eye on the comments and an updated forecast article.
Comments
Thanks Craig , can't hardly wait.
Sounds like a great warm up event for Bells and Margies.
Who doesn't love this stormy, unpredictable shit.
Looking forward to this one. It was a proper test for the surfers last year, sizey unpredictable swell keeping a hiding and high score in the mix. Steve's Alf Garnett like write ups are the highlight of Portugal though, grey seas, clouds etc. Even managed to get an early dig in during the Pipe comp this year so looks like it could be vintage Supertubos commentary.
"Starting out with 4-6ft waves and cross-offshore wind from the south, Wednesday is one of the more settled days in the immediate period."
Supertubos faces WSW, so that would have to be a southerly with a ton of E in it.
Hopefully south-east, we'll see as things are still quite fluid.
Yawn, wake me up for teahupoo and cloudbreak
I don't get the hate for the wave. One of my favourite waves on the east coast could be considered a wedging close out shorie. Although this has no breakwall.
But, won't be watching it. Looking forward to the write up though!
I don’t think anyone hates the wave.
It’s just rarely good for the contest.
Those times that it was pumping were epic.
Too fickle, particularly as it will be end of winter, early spring.
Its strangely mesmerising to watch. You dont know whats coming.
Its a total crap shoot.
I think part of it is aesthetic for me.
After watching those beautiful blue Hawaiian waves, to be transferred to cold, grey, brown-water, gloomy close-outs is just a visual slog.
It's not inviting or easy on the eye.
We've just come from two very challenging arenas, for the third start, I would like to see these guys/gals actually surf, you know, rip.
Lets see how good they can surf, not how well they can dodge close-outs and find a corner.
Sure it's a challenge, but I want to see some high performance surfing now, 3 comps in.
I also just can't help but think that if you are at a location with 8ft of swell and it's 90% closing out, you're at the wrong frigging spot.
Find somewhere handling the swell, for the love of God.
Other than that, I love it.
No, I'm really going to try and see the good in it.
It's the smell of Peniche, which makes it great!
The possibility of a heavy beachy pit or bad injury when it's 8ft and closing out, and the guts/stupidity it takes to paddle over the ledge, is still more entertaining to me than how well they handle a big boring burger like Sunset.
I agree it's the wrong spot though and I'd happily see it replaced. Along with Sunset, Bells, Margs, El Salvador, Brazil, Trestles... Jeez they really run some shit events / I really prefer watching heavy barrels.
Put puerto Escondido in around June July instead.
Very consistent.
Barra as a backup venue for a massive swell.
Exaclty!
It really does seem like a contest of luck and thats not in anyones interest.
Snapper or dbah now could’ve provided the high performance canvas we’re seeking. Seems a shame not to be going there anymore
Totally agree, Snapper would be better. Better still Lakey Peak.
Tons of fish in the area.
There's these canals theat run through the town that fill with fish.
Kinda like mullet,
Helps of them everywhere.
They have a pretty cool fish market in the center of old Town.
Great place to visit as There's always waves some where there .
Ha!
I love how everyone has their back to the wave in the photo !
Typical heat last year- JJF vs Rio Waida.
JJF caught 8 waves and the best he could manage was a pair of 4's in a losing performance in gloomy, messy close-outs.
Really?
After watching Motel Hell, thats the best we can offer a surfer of JJF's calibre?
Any Goat sightings yet FR?
Mate, if the GOAT doesn't show (my call) he will leave it until the last moment.
True to Goat form indeed.
We shall see.
That forecast won't have him packing his bags enthusiastically.
Kind of place he can sneak out of a few tubes and cause an upset, or just blame the conditions again in the event of a loss.
Slats can’t lose!
@FR
"I also just can't help but think that if you are at a location with 8ft of swell and it's 90% closing out, you're at the wrong frigging spot.
Find somewhere handling the swell, for the love of God."
I am simultaneously glad and disappointed that they don't move it to one of the half a dozen spots nearby that I can think of that would be pumping
Loving the forecast... big, messy, stormy shit, just like we mortals get to ride. True test if who is a real surfer. It's a great tour schedule... keeping it real (until finals day when spinning wins).
LOL,
Lately i feel that even if for the most part of the event...if the waves are crud for most of the event.
....if finals days are good then all is forgotten from a spectators perspective.
Peniche , for the most part has really short windows, it's hard to run 2 events there I feel.
4 full days of contest just doesn't fill the Peniche swell windows
Hard to run 2 events in any locale and have great waves for both
True!
I like to see the surfers in big, beautiful Hawaiian waves under blue skies, who doesn't. But I also like to see them in conditions that won't make a postcard. Solid and barely makeable where the average punter is thinking fuck that. If it's cold and grey with the waft of sardine all the better. Low scores aren't an issue for me, it's a level playing field. As Robson showed last year, fortune favours the brave in these places.
I have absolutely no idea what is going on with the ISA games. This repechage format is bewildering to me.
I look forward to watching the warm up sessions with the pros and local Joe's giving it a go.
Those waves from Italo & others last year were great.
KON says head to the otherside of the headland if necessary for many more options.
Models now going 15-18ft for the Thurs/Fri swell! Of course, with howling onshores.
There's been lots of changes every day of late... this event is gonna be a wild ride from a forecasting POV.
Think it might run Ben day 1?
Yep.
The crew must be rooted after surfing 29 heats in the ISA games and then jetting out last minute to Portugal.
Any further updates on swell/wind for the event?