South African Storm Sending Long Period Swell To Indo
On the weekend, South Africa's coastline, particularly the Eastern Cape, was inundated by large waves that struck on Saturday, peaked later that day, and began abating on Sunday.
All weekend and continuing into today, the South African Weather Service has been warning small vessels "to seek shelter in harbours, bays or inlets", while the "public is advised to be aware of large waves along the beach and harbours/ports".
The waves caused damage to coastal properties and the loss of one life.
Though it was reported on some channels as a tsunami, the cause of the waves was a mere mid-latitude low that brushed the south-east of the country. Albeit, an exceptionally broad and deep mid-latitude storm - the hectopascals dipping down to approx. 970 hectopascals.
The storm reached maximum intensity just off South Africa's coast which meant both the waves were large and unruly, while the storm surge was significant. A storm surge is when the ocean surface is raised higher than surrounding areas owing to particularly low atmospheric pressure. They're usually associated with cyclones, however the same forces apply in any strong low pressure system.
If the cyclone or storm crosses land then the storm surge will follow, which is what happened in South Africa late on Saturday. With abnormally large waves breaking on top of the surge, the whitewater then reached areas far beyond the tide zone.
Today, the storm is dissapating, the weather service reducing the warnings issued, however the story of this storm will continue for a while yet. For one, the storm fired a direct hit up the 500 km wide Mozambique Channel which will light up the southern shores of the Comoro Islands, and is strong enough to penetrate deep into the Arabian Sea. Together with swell moving up Madagascar's east coast, the storm will arrive as long period swell to fringing coastlines that usually only see whitewater from short period monsoons.
Moving east into the Indian Ocean and the swell will similarly arrive deliver long period waves - think: 21+ seconds - from the French Indian Ocean islands through Lakshadweep and the Maldives, across Sri Lanka's southern shores, and then into the Bay of Bengal, including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. I even saw Thailand-based Bert Burger readying himself for the swell which will lose little steam as it moves between the Nicobar Islands and Aceh, Indonesia's western-most province, towards Thailand.
Fair to say that it's Indonesia where most surfers will be anticipating the coming swell. However, it's worth including a disclaimer that, being extremely long period, the swell may behave in unpredictable ways.
Waves that like a lot of period - Lances Right and Nemberala to name just two - will respond well, as will many quiet waves on less dynamic coasts that will benefit from increased refraction as the period stretches upwards of 20 seconds.
By the same token, reefs in smaller bays and compartments, or those that have outside bomboras, may suffer from the uncommon period. A more southerly-focused swell that's due to arrive at the same time may help the cause. If nothing else, it'll fill the gaps between infrequent sets of the long period swell.
As for numbers, the western tip of the archipelago will feel forerunners on midday Friday in the vicinity of 21 seconds (currently forecasting 21.9 seconds), with Bali expecting foreunners around 25 seconds on Friday, before settling into 19 - 20 seconds through Saturday. Meanwhile, further east, Roti will also experience foreunners around 25 seconds before also settling into a swell of 19-20 second period.
It's worth noting that, in Bali, the storm swell is being considered the secondary swell as the aforementioned southerly swell may be more dominant, yet in Roti the storm swell and its extreme period is the dominant swell - there'll be a very long wait between sets.
Although it's aimed towards Indonesia, side energy from the swell will also strike Australia coming in from the WSW with a reduced size and elongated period. Currently, Swellnet's Margaret River data point is forecasting 25 seconds swell at 0.2 m on Thursday, rising marginally in size, dropping marginally in period as the day goes on.
Elliston is currently producing similar numbers in period and size, albeit 24 hours later.
A swell that diagonally crosses the Indian Ocean from the temperate latitudes of South Africa's Eastern Cape to the equatorial climes of Nusa Tengarra travels approximately 10,000 kms. Ostensibly, that'd appear the maximum swell range for Indonesia, however taking into account Great Circle routes, Indonesia's theoretical swell window widens even further.
Hypothetically, it's possible for a storm to track off Baia Formosa in Brazil's far north-east - also Italo Ferreira's hometown - travel south-east, and if it's strong enough move past Capetown and out into the Indian Ocean, with the Great Circle route then taking it in a north-east direction towards Nemberala where it will arrive 16,908 kms later.
Theoretical? Yes.
Possible? Not really.
Comments
Do we have any estimates on size when it starts filling in on the Bukit? More so on the 25 second storm swell.
Wow! 25seconds?? That could be interesting for a couple of little setups, even at .2m.
Amazing in that video how much damage those seemingly innocuous little surges can do. They carry so much volume of water.
Good luck to anyone in Indo. Would be a great time to get off the beaten track and explore a few little nooks and crannies.
Hi Stu, that's a great write up. A swell period of 20+ seconds at 2m typically suggests powerful, organized waves. Yet, the forecast predicts a wave height of just 6 feet. While swell period is a key indicator, other factors like local bathymetry, secondary swell and trade winds also influence the final wave size. Given the high period, one might expect larger waves on the Bukit. Does the Surf Forecast Swell Train Analysis provide accurate predictions of wave heights for this swell? Or is there uncertainty on this one?
Hey BfB, there's some element of uncertainty, as alluded to in the article, but also because the computer generated forecast gives a 'best fit' for a large chunk of coastline, when the swell may do unpredictable things owing to bathymetry and whatnot.
This is always the case with computer generated forecasts: they may be excellent for a certain size/period mix - and we try to tweak all data points to allow for the most common scenario - but when it starts moving outside those parameters then they become less reliable and better used as a gauge for what's happening (rather than dialling in perfectly accurate height for example).
Hey Stu,
Thanks for shedding light on the intricacies of computer-generated forecasts. It's always fascinating to understand the nuances and challenges behind the predictions we often take for granted. Your insights provide a valuable perspective on the balance between technology, human judgement and the unpredictable nature of the ocean.
And on that note, sounds like I should pack a quiver of boards for this weekend. Because, you know, I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't!
ChatGpt has officially entered the comment thread via the BfB haha. Nice.
Hhahahahaha nailed it Ben, significantly more eloquent than BFB
At 3:59 in the linked vid you can see a car doing a rock jump.
A surplus in the 2nd hand car market this week over there I'd say
Get em sold before rust gets hold of em....
As cars, they make surprisingly good boats.
It's not just the ex-minesite 79 series that have gone below the water table...
Haha, should put it in the fails compilation
Arabian Sea? Anyone ever sussed out that zone and prepared to speak about it???
Wow some people just get attracted to dangerous situations like moths to a flame.
Last Saturday near Cape Town. Not great surfing, though the water footage is enjoyable.
Wonder if you ever get kelp caught to the leggie there?
The guy on the sponge certainly had the right idea for that spot!
Must be cold water with that much kelp. Stu will the situation in certain areas mean that the bombs are real bombs and the south swell is in the OK size? Would be tricky on more gnarly breaks.
Probably a better question for Steve or Craig, though that'd be my read on it - particularly in the Java, Bali, Lombok stretch, which'll cop the SW swell and is still open to the S swell.
So, a likelihood for significantly bigger yet very inconsistent sets.
Those are the scariest days to surf at your limit. I remember a day at Impossibles that was 6-8 on the sets and out of nowhere a much, much bigger wave came through , but thankfully not top to bottom and in very deep water. Only two waves like that the entire swell, but it was enough to make us all very cautious. Probably the prettiest big wave I have ever seen on reflection.
Swell peaked at 8m and 20.5 seconds about ~ 3000km east of the cape of good hope yesterday morning. That’s open ocean waves.
That South African storm will be giving the locals free reign next year. Jbay off for 2024 https://www.wavescape.co.za/surf/j-bay-cancelled
Geez the tour doesn't even exist yet for 2024 and they've already potentially lost one of their best events.
IOC is all an excuse. Sports and Recreation department is a joke in SA. Yet they'll keep the amby-pamby Punta Roca cobblestone excuse for a point. And what is crazier is the WSL were recently freaking out over the popularity of the upcoming slabfest and shootout so reckoned they had to step up the pace...so much for that
Is that confirmed?
It appears it's cancelled due to an absence of public money yet Kouga Municipality were a minor sponsor.
"The Corona Open J-Bay is proudly supported by Corona, Shiseido, YETI, Surfline, True Surf, Kouga Municipality, and Sealand Gear."
"In a country like Australia, state governments are falling over themselves to host more WSL events in an already congested lineup of events in Australia because they appreciate what this does to the local economy, with a huge economic injection when thousands of local, state and overseas visitors come to a town for 10 days."
The author must have missed the part where the Qld State Government gave the WSL the finger a few years back....
Yep.
The tourism benefits of pro surfing have probably been wildly overstated and thus we see the business model of pro surfing shown to be incredibly vulnerable and completely at the mercy of govt underwriting.
Here in Wollongong, the council just announced we'd be getting public e-scooters.
Might not appear to have much in common with pro surfing, but after visiting Melbourne and Canberra and seeing tens, if not hundreds, of scooters laying around like rubbish, or high up trees after a late night game of toss the caber, while finding out this is the case almost everywhere they go, it's hard to believe a council could be sold this pup.
Wollongong is small, maybe 5kms wide where the city is, and in any case no tourists are going to West Wollongong anyway. Most will head up the coast, which is serviced by a bus and train line. Still, the e-scooter company came in and made promises about increased tourism etc etc and the council bit.
In relation, pro surfing - sun, surf, tanned young athletes - is an easy sell.
Definitely- it was good enough to hook Dirk and Natasha Ziff.
Problem is in the long term trying to find a return on it.
Schedule was released Sep 19 last year- any delay this year would suggest bad news.
If J-Bay can't pay it's way then it's hard to see how the CS would be sustainable- absent going back to classic bums on seats bigtop surfing at city beachbreaks.
I heard on the latest Stab podcast it is going to be released Wednesday (so tomorrow for us in Aus)
Lessons from the past: Melbourne saw the intersection of tech naivety and Australian respect for property -
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/obike-responds-to-criticism-of-bi...
Someone needs to use the new bike lanes they paid for!
Don't underestimate the desperation of local Councils in 'solving' (or being seen to make efforts to solve) traffic issues without adequate infrastructure budgets. 'Micro-mobility' is our new savior to congestion...apparently
Any on the ground reports from Mentawai's?
Windy and small
Holyyyy.......!!
…Faaark
- set at 16:15
& 17:35 onwards cpl of nice ones and jordy
How's strength / period of this System now
Still as strong as first thought ?
Three South African navy personnel have died and a senior officer is in a critical condition after seven crew members of a submarine were swept off its deck by big sea waves as a helicopter attempted a "vertical transfer" of supplies.
The defence department said the accident happened on Wednesday as an Air Force Lynx helicopter was attempting what's known as a "vertrep" - or vertical replenishment - of supplies to the SAS Manthatisi submarine on the ocean surface off the coast of Cape Town.
The operation was immediately called off and a rescue effort was launched
no sign of it arrived yet in the swell nets,
i am listening in, radars out
That 25second energy has just shown up on the UWA buoys on the Sth Coast over here.
Not big but it's there.
https://wawaves.org/
Great write up Stu. Super interesting. Thanks!
Swell just starting to show on the Bukit .
Ulus is 3 foot, with long waits on sets
20cm at 20sec in full flight.
Hey Ben,
20cm at 20sec in full flight? That's a head-turner! I'll be dropping some daily updates on this swell event, offering data points to juxtapose with the "Surf Forecast Swell Train Analysis". Having surfed for 40 years across the globe, I've seen my fair share of swells, but this one's got me stumped (and the computer models), as well as Stunet. I've got Big Wave mates claiming we could see 8-10 Hawaii size at the peak, while other forecasts are dialing it down. Just goes to show, even with all our modern science, Mother Nature still loves to keep us on our toes. Or should I say, off our algorithms?
Any possibility of an updated indo forecaster notes plz legends?! Interesting and confusing mix of swells incoming :)
Craig's back Monday, will be updated Tuesday.
Ok so hightide ulus was 4 foot on sets, long waits and didn’t appear to be any 21 seconds long period swell (well not noticeable)
can we see some charts, some hindcasting , synoptics , wams type stuff please?
I can't see any sign of the swell on the dotr wa buoys, only on the uwa buoy 20.48s , did anyone happen to see anything on the dotr buoy? who was surfing the swell, anyone this arvo or something from the beach ?
I didnt make the beach today.
0.69m @ 19.3s in Bunbury Caml.
https://www.southernports.com.au/bunbury/weather-tides/beacon-3/waves
.
Cams Caml.
I got his number , but I will try the cams thanks udo!
A few longer lines coming through secrets to temples sections at the bottom of low tide to maybe the turn of the tide. Nothing noticeable in size though. As a side note Ozzie Wright was out at temples putting on a clinic on hands free tube wrangling.
The long duration waves were at my fav novelty spot in WA at first light yesterday. Long long long walls, fast moving and easy paddle ins at what is usually a bit of a fat burger. Long waits between pulses of 3 wave sets.
If I had just looked at the Naturaliste swell buoy wave heights and duration I would not have bothered going to that spot other swell bouys indicating the 20s duration. With the long duration size was twice what local swell buoy would indicate combine that with the thicker waves, had some real drive to it.
6-8 foot sets at Ulus, epic to watch Jim Banks in the single fin comp… really ramped up today
Been watching for 15 minutes on the web cam.
Not sure who's out but no one has got anything good and there's some beautiful waves being missed.
20 seconds period, nothing new.
that reminds me of that question what's the biggest swell period ever?
That's a good question.
Ments was a solid and very powerful 8ft clean up sets on Sat afternoon. 5-6ft in between and every 20 min 4-6 wave sets at 8ft. Dropped pretty quick come Sunday. Back down to around 6ft/6ft+ sets. Maybe a freak set wave in the 6-8ft class early Sunday morning.
Thats what my mate reckoned too Don.
Did you find a wave?
Yeah we found a few. My mates copped an 8ft set on the head and got super rattled so we found a more manageable wave.
I didn’t even attempt going out into the 8ft break. It was way above my pay grade.
Another video from J-Bay and Bruce's. Check 4:30 for the damage to the J-Bay dune front, some houses in precarious situations, plus some enormous waves, before visiting Cape St Francis and copping a back-of-the-napkin explanation on sand flow.
Interesting how the sandflow from inland to ocean was so important to the sandbanks.
Stability on land can mean erosion on the beach.
In a natural - that is, untouched - system, the dunes are always in flux: moving about by the wind, acting as a barrier to big seas, always shifting between the nearshore zone and the dunes themselves.
There are very few beaches left in Australia like that, and none in urban areas. Building on the foredune has been the catalyst for all the changes that came later. When cycles shifted and big seas threatened property, authorities didn't condemn the buildings and move them inland, but build hard barriers with rock and concrete, or planted insidious weeds such as marram grass to stabilise the dunes.
All of that comes at the cost of less sand exchange and worse sandbanks.
Absolutely. His presentation showing photos from the 60's and 70's and the width of the beach, size of the dunes is just so great teaching of the differences that development on the coast has done there. Fascinating about the 'sand river' and the mechanism of flow.
great video , was going to post it myself , stunet already done it
Those cloudbreaks at 7:50 - anyone ever surfed those?
Thank you to the fellow presenting this, it gives us a picture of how big the impact has been.
Great set of videos. The build up, footage, commentary and sense of awe and history is so well done.
Watch all 3 on a big screen without distractions.