South African Storm Sending Long Period Swell To Indo

Stu Nettle picture
Stu Nettle (stunet)
Swellnet Dispatch

On the weekend, South Africa's coastline, particularly the Eastern Cape, was inundated by large waves that struck on Saturday, peaked later that day, and began abating on Sunday.

All weekend and continuing into today, the South African Weather Service has been warning small vessels "to seek shelter in harbours, bays or inlets", while the "public is advised to be aware of large waves along the beach and harbours/ports".

The waves caused damage to coastal properties and the loss of one life.

Though it was reported on some channels as a tsunami, the cause of the waves was a mere mid-latitude low that brushed the south-east of the country. Albeit, an exceptionally broad and deep mid-latitude storm - the hectopascals dipping down to approx. 970 hectopascals.

The storm reached maximum intensity just off South Africa's coast which meant both the waves were large and unruly, while the storm surge was significant. A storm surge is when the ocean surface is raised higher than surrounding areas owing to particularly low atmospheric pressure. They're usually associated with cyclones, however the same forces apply in any strong low pressure system.

If the cyclone or storm crosses land then the storm surge will follow, which is what happened in South Africa late on Saturday. With abnormally large waves breaking on top of the surge, the whitewater then reached areas far beyond the tide zone.


Cheeseball thumbnail on an otherwise good video

Today, the storm is dissapating, the weather service reducing the warnings issued, however the story of this storm will continue for a while yet. For one, the storm fired a direct hit up the 500 km wide Mozambique Channel which will light up the southern shores of the Comoro Islands, and is strong enough to penetrate deep into the Arabian Sea. Together with swell moving up Madagascar's east coast, the storm will arrive as long period swell to fringing coastlines that usually only see whitewater from short period monsoons.

Moving east into the Indian Ocean and the swell will similarly arrive deliver long period waves - think: 21+ seconds - from the French Indian Ocean islands through Lakshadweep and the Maldives, across Sri Lanka's southern shores, and then into the Bay of Bengal, including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. I even saw Thailand-based Bert Burger readying himself for the swell which will lose little steam as it moves between the Nicobar Islands and Aceh, Indonesia's western-most province, towards Thailand.

Often dormant corners of the Arabian Sea will cop a long period strike from the swell

Fair to say that it's Indonesia where most surfers will be anticipating the coming swell. However, it's worth including a disclaimer that, being extremely long period, the swell may behave in unpredictable ways.

Waves that like a lot of period - Lances Right and Nemberala to name just two - will respond well, as will many quiet waves on less dynamic coasts that will benefit from increased refraction as the period stretches upwards of 20 seconds.

By the same token, reefs in smaller bays and compartments, or those that have outside bomboras, may suffer from the uncommon period. A more southerly-focused swell that's due to arrive at the same time may help the cause. If nothing else, it'll fill the gaps between infrequent sets of the long period swell.

As for numbers, the western tip of the archipelago will feel forerunners on midday Friday in the vicinity of 21 seconds (currently forecasting 21.9 seconds), with Bali expecting foreunners around 25 seconds on Friday, before settling into 19 - 20 seconds through Saturday. Meanwhile, further east, Roti will also experience foreunners around 25 seconds before also settling into a swell of 19-20 second period.

It's worth noting that, in Bali, the storm swell is being considered the secondary swell as the aforementioned southerly swell may be more dominant, yet in Roti the storm swell and its extreme period is the dominant swell - there'll be a very long wait between sets.

Although it's aimed towards Indonesia, side energy from the swell will also strike Australia coming in from the WSW with a reduced size and elongated period. Currently, Swellnet's Margaret River data point is forecasting 25 seconds swell at 0.2 m on Thursday, rising marginally in size, dropping marginally in period as the day goes on.

Elliston is currently producing similar numbers in period and size, albeit 24 hours later.

A Great Circle route links Baia Formosa in north-east Brazil with Nemberala in eastern Indonesia meaning that, despite being near 17,000 kms apart, a strong enough storm off the former would reach the latter.

A swell that diagonally crosses the Indian Ocean from the temperate latitudes of South Africa's Eastern Cape to the equatorial climes of Nusa Tengarra travels approximately 10,000 kms. Ostensibly, that'd appear the maximum swell range for Indonesia, however taking into account Great Circle routes, Indonesia's theoretical swell window widens even further.

Hypothetically, it's possible for a storm to track off Baia Formosa in Brazil's far north-east - also Italo Ferreira's hometown - travel south-east, and if it's strong enough move past Capetown and out into the Indian Ocean, with the Great Circle route then taking it in a north-east direction towards Nemberala where it will arrive 16,908 kms later.

Theoretical? Yes.

Possible? Not really.

Comments

nicko74's picture
nicko74's picture
nicko74 Monday, 18 Sep 2023 at 3:08pm

Do we have any estimates on size when it starts filling in on the Bukit? More so on the 25 second storm swell.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Monday, 18 Sep 2023 at 3:20pm

Wow! 25seconds?? That could be interesting for a couple of little setups, even at .2m.
Amazing in that video how much damage those seemingly innocuous little surges can do. They carry so much volume of water.
Good luck to anyone in Indo. Would be a great time to get off the beaten track and explore a few little nooks and crannies.

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy Monday, 18 Sep 2023 at 5:49pm

Hi Stu, that's a great write up. A swell period of 20+ seconds at 2m typically suggests powerful, organized waves. Yet, the forecast predicts a wave height of just 6 feet. While swell period is a key indicator, other factors like local bathymetry, secondary swell and trade winds also influence the final wave size. Given the high period, one might expect larger waves on the Bukit. Does the Surf Forecast Swell Train Analysis provide accurate predictions of wave heights for this swell? Or is there uncertainty on this one?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 11:35am

Hey BfB, there's some element of uncertainty, as alluded to in the article, but also because the computer generated forecast gives a 'best fit' for a large chunk of coastline, when the swell may do unpredictable things owing to bathymetry and whatnot.

This is always the case with computer generated forecasts: they may be excellent for a certain size/period mix - and we try to tweak all data points to allow for the most common scenario - but when it starts moving outside those parameters then they become less reliable and better used as a gauge for what's happening (rather than dialling in perfectly accurate height for example).

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 1:23pm

Hey Stu,
Thanks for shedding light on the intricacies of computer-generated forecasts. It's always fascinating to understand the nuances and challenges behind the predictions we often take for granted. Your insights provide a valuable perspective on the balance between technology, human judgement and the unpredictable nature of the ocean.
And on that note, sounds like I should pack a quiver of boards for this weekend. Because, you know, I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't!

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Thursday, 21 Sep 2023 at 8:26pm

ChatGpt has officially entered the comment thread via the BfB haha. Nice.

Brian from Brissy's picture
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Brian from Brissy Saturday, 23 Sep 2023 at 1:08pm

Hhahahahaha nailed it Ben, significantly more eloquent than BFB

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 18 Sep 2023 at 7:10pm

At 3:59 in the linked vid you can see a car doing a rock jump.

Shaggydagz's picture
Shaggydagz's picture
Shaggydagz Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 11:31am

A surplus in the 2nd hand car market this week over there I'd say
Get em sold before rust gets hold of em....

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 6:56pm

As cars, they make surprisingly good boats.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 7:50am

It's not just the ex-minesite 79 series that have gone below the water table...

mr mick's picture
mr mick's picture
mr mick Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 6:13pm

Haha, should put it in the fails compilation

Chipper's picture
Chipper's picture
Chipper Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 9:17am

Arabian Sea? Anyone ever sussed out that zone and prepared to speak about it???

savanova's picture
savanova's picture
savanova Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 11:22am

Wow some people just get attracted to dangerous situations like moths to a flame.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 1:07pm

Last Saturday near Cape Town. Not great surfing, though the water footage is enjoyable.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 1:24pm

Wonder if you ever get kelp caught to the leggie there?

boneroni's picture
boneroni's picture
boneroni Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 6:54am

The guy on the sponge certainly had the right idea for that spot!

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 1:31pm

Must be cold water with that much kelp. Stu will the situation in certain areas mean that the bombs are real bombs and the south swell is in the OK size? Would be tricky on more gnarly breaks.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 1:37pm

Probably a better question for Steve or Craig, though that'd be my read on it - particularly in the Java, Bali, Lombok stretch, which'll cop the SW swell and is still open to the S swell.

So, a likelihood for significantly bigger yet very inconsistent sets.

dandandan's picture
dandandan's picture
dandandan Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 8:36am

Those are the scariest days to surf at your limit. I remember a day at Impossibles that was 6-8 on the sets and out of nowhere a much, much bigger wave came through , but thankfully not top to bottom and in very deep water. Only two waves like that the entire swell, but it was enough to make us all very cautious. Probably the prettiest big wave I have ever seen on reflection.

Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 1:38pm

Swell peaked at 8m and 20.5 seconds about ~ 3000km east of the cape of good hope yesterday morning. That’s open ocean waves.

pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongstth... Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 8:38pm

That South African storm will be giving the locals free reign next year. Jbay off for 2024 https://www.wavescape.co.za/surf/j-bay-cancelled

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 8:58pm

Geez the tour doesn't even exist yet for 2024 and they've already potentially lost one of their best events.

pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongstth... Tuesday, 19 Sep 2023 at 9:54pm

IOC is all an excuse. Sports and Recreation department is a joke in SA. Yet they'll keep the amby-pamby Punta Roca cobblestone excuse for a point. And what is crazier is the WSL were recently freaking out over the popularity of the upcoming slabfest and shootout so reckoned they had to step up the pace...so much for that

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 6:23am

Is that confirmed?

It appears it's cancelled due to an absence of public money yet Kouga Municipality were a minor sponsor.

"The Corona Open J-Bay is proudly supported by Corona, Shiseido, YETI, Surfline, True Surf, Kouga Municipality, and Sealand Gear."

Surfalot67's picture
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Surfalot67 Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 8:59am

"In a country like Australia, state governments are falling over themselves to host more WSL events in an already congested lineup of events in Australia because they appreciate what this does to the local economy, with a huge economic injection when thousands of local, state and overseas visitors come to a town for 10 days."
The author must have missed the part where the Qld State Government gave the WSL the finger a few years back....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 9:16am

Yep.

The tourism benefits of pro surfing have probably been wildly overstated and thus we see the business model of pro surfing shown to be incredibly vulnerable and completely at the mercy of govt underwriting.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 9:43am

Here in Wollongong, the council just announced we'd be getting public e-scooters.

Might not appear to have much in common with pro surfing, but after visiting Melbourne and Canberra and seeing tens, if not hundreds, of scooters laying around like rubbish, or high up trees after a late night game of toss the caber, while finding out this is the case almost everywhere they go, it's hard to believe a council could be sold this pup.

Wollongong is small, maybe 5kms wide where the city is, and in any case no tourists are going to West Wollongong anyway. Most will head up the coast, which is serviced by a bus and train line. Still, the e-scooter company came in and made promises about increased tourism etc etc and the council bit.

In relation, pro surfing - sun, surf, tanned young athletes - is an easy sell.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 11:32am

Definitely- it was good enough to hook Dirk and Natasha Ziff.

Problem is in the long term trying to find a return on it.

Schedule was released Sep 19 last year- any delay this year would suggest bad news.

If J-Bay can't pay it's way then it's hard to see how the CS would be sustainable- absent going back to classic bums on seats bigtop surfing at city beachbreaks.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 1:44pm

I heard on the latest Stab podcast it is going to be released Wednesday (so tomorrow for us in Aus)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 11:58am

Lessons from the past: Melbourne saw the intersection of tech naivety and Australian respect for property -

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/obike-responds-to-criticism-of-bi...

MrBungle's picture
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MrBungle Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 4:27pm

Someone needs to use the new bike lanes they paid for!

palmymick's picture
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palmymick Monday, 25 Sep 2023 at 3:52pm

Don't underestimate the desperation of local Councils in 'solving' (or being seen to make efforts to solve) traffic issues without adequate infrastructure budgets. 'Micro-mobility' is our new savior to congestion...apparently

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 8:41am

Any on the ground reports from Mentawai's?

Pngy's picture
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Pngy Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 5:38pm

Windy and small

southernraw's picture
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southernraw Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023 at 11:00pm

Holyyyy.......!!

Jelly Flater's picture
Jelly Flater's picture
Jelly Flater Thursday, 21 Sep 2023 at 12:12am

…Faaark

- set at 16:15
& 17:35 onwards cpl of nice ones and jordy

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Thursday, 21 Sep 2023 at 10:40am

How's strength / period of this System now
Still as strong as first thought ?

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Thursday, 21 Sep 2023 at 8:06pm

Three South African navy personnel have died and a senior officer is in a critical condition after seven crew members of a submarine were swept off its deck by big sea waves as a helicopter attempted a "vertical transfer" of supplies.

The defence department said the accident happened on Wednesday as an Air Force Lynx helicopter was attempting what's known as a "vertrep" - or vertical replenishment - of supplies to the SAS Manthatisi submarine on the ocean surface off the coast of Cape Town.

The operation was immediately called off and a rescue effort was launched

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Thursday, 21 Sep 2023 at 10:20pm

no sign of it arrived yet in the swell nets,
i am listening in, radars out

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Thursday, 21 Sep 2023 at 10:38pm

That 25second energy has just shown up on the UWA buoys on the Sth Coast over here.
Not big but it's there.
https://wawaves.org/

boneroni's picture
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boneroni Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 6:59am

Great write up Stu. Super interesting. Thanks!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:05am

Swell just starting to show on the Bukit .

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:58am

Ulus is 3 foot, with long waits on sets

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:59am

20cm at 20sec in full flight.

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 11:52am

Hey Ben,

20cm at 20sec in full flight? That's a head-turner! I'll be dropping some daily updates on this swell event, offering data points to juxtapose with the "Surf Forecast Swell Train Analysis". Having surfed for 40 years across the globe, I've seen my fair share of swells, but this one's got me stumped (and the computer models), as well as Stunet. I've got Big Wave mates claiming we could see 8-10 Hawaii size at the peak, while other forecasts are dialing it down. Just goes to show, even with all our modern science, Mother Nature still loves to keep us on our toes. Or should I say, off our algorithms?

yourightgeezer's picture
yourightgeezer's picture
yourightgeezer Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 10:26am

Any possibility of an updated indo forecaster notes plz legends?! Interesting and confusing mix of swells incoming :)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 11:22am

Craig's back Monday, will be updated Tuesday.

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 5:00pm

Ok so hightide ulus was 4 foot on sets, long waits and didn’t appear to be any 21 seconds long period swell (well not noticeable)

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:04pm

can we see some charts, some hindcasting , synoptics , wams type stuff please?

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:08pm

I can't see any sign of the swell on the dotr wa buoys, only on the uwa buoy 20.48s , did anyone happen to see anything on the dotr buoy? who was surfing the swell, anyone this arvo or something from the beach ?

Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 9:04pm

I didnt make the beach today.
0.69m @ 19.3s in Bunbury Caml.
https://www.southernports.com.au/bunbury/weather-tides/beacon-3/waves

Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 9:05pm

.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:11pm

Cams Caml.

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:16pm

I got his number , but I will try the cams thanks udo!

nicko74's picture
nicko74's picture
nicko74 Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:19pm

A few longer lines coming through secrets to temples sections at the bottom of low tide to maybe the turn of the tide. Nothing noticeable in size though. As a side note Ozzie Wright was out at temples putting on a clinic on hands free tube wrangling.

PKsswellnet's picture
PKsswellnet's picture
PKsswellnet Saturday, 23 Sep 2023 at 9:57am

The long duration waves were at my fav novelty spot in WA at first light yesterday. Long long long walls, fast moving and easy paddle ins at what is usually a bit of a fat burger. Long waits between pulses of 3 wave sets.
If I had just looked at the Naturaliste swell buoy wave heights and duration I would not have bothered going to that spot other swell bouys indicating the 20s duration. With the long duration size was twice what local swell buoy would indicate combine that with the thicker waves, had some real drive to it.

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy Saturday, 23 Sep 2023 at 1:10pm

6-8 foot sets at Ulus, epic to watch Jim Banks in the single fin comp… really ramped up today

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Saturday, 23 Sep 2023 at 1:28pm

Been watching for 15 minutes on the web cam.
Not sure who's out but no one has got anything good and there's some beautiful waves being missed.

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Sunday, 24 Sep 2023 at 12:03pm

20 seconds period, nothing new.
that reminds me of that question what's the biggest swell period ever?

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups Saturday, 7 Oct 2023 at 2:40pm

That's a good question.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 24 Sep 2023 at 6:20pm

?si=tSEZwm05CzjUbzC8

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 26 Sep 2023 at 6:30pm

Ments was a solid and very powerful 8ft clean up sets on Sat afternoon. 5-6ft in between and every 20 min 4-6 wave sets at 8ft. Dropped pretty quick come Sunday. Back down to around 6ft/6ft+ sets. Maybe a freak set wave in the 6-8ft class early Sunday morning.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Tuesday, 26 Sep 2023 at 6:31pm

Thats what my mate reckoned too Don.

Did you find a wave?

donweather's picture
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donweather Wednesday, 27 Sep 2023 at 11:54am

Yeah we found a few. My mates copped an 8ft set on the head and got super rattled so we found a more manageable wave.

I didn’t even attempt going out into the 8ft break. It was way above my pay grade.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 29 Sep 2023 at 9:01am

Another video from J-Bay and Bruce's. Check 4:30 for the damage to the J-Bay dune front, some houses in precarious situations, plus some enormous waves, before visiting Cape St Francis and copping a back-of-the-napkin explanation on sand flow.

frog's picture
frog's picture
frog Friday, 29 Sep 2023 at 1:38pm

Interesting how the sandflow from inland to ocean was so important to the sandbanks.

Stability on land can mean erosion on the beach.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 29 Sep 2023 at 1:46pm

In a natural - that is, untouched - system, the dunes are always in flux: moving about by the wind, acting as a barrier to big seas, always shifting between the nearshore zone and the dunes themselves.

There are very few beaches left in Australia like that, and none in urban areas. Building on the foredune has been the catalyst for all the changes that came later. When cycles shifted and big seas threatened property, authorities didn't condemn the buildings and move them inland, but build hard barriers with rock and concrete, or planted insidious weeds such as marram grass to stabilise the dunes.

All of that comes at the cost of less sand exchange and worse sandbanks.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 29 Sep 2023 at 4:46pm

Absolutely. His presentation showing photos from the 60's and 70's and the width of the beach, size of the dunes is just so great teaching of the differences that development on the coast has done there. Fascinating about the 'sand river' and the mechanism of flow.

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Friday, 29 Sep 2023 at 3:11pm

great video , was going to post it myself , stunet already done it

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 29 Sep 2023 at 4:05pm

Those cloudbreaks at 7:50 - anyone ever surfed those?

Thank you to the fellow presenting this, it gives us a picture of how big the impact has been.

frog's picture
frog's picture
frog Friday, 29 Sep 2023 at 5:21pm

Great set of videos. The build up, footage, commentary and sense of awe and history is so well done.

Watch all 3 on a big screen without distractions.