Rip Curl WSL Finals - Trestles Forecast Update
Plot twist.
The start of the waiting period for the Rip Curl Finals at Trestles is fast approaching, and we've had a curve-ball thrown into an otherwise unchanged outlook of long-range S/SW groundswell pulses.
That curve-ball is tropical storm Eleven-e, which has formed to the south-west of Mexico. Eleven-e is due to reach Hurricane strength over the coming 24-36 hours while tracking west and moving into Trestles' swell window. Name-wise we could be looking at Lee though this is still up for grabs.
The global weather forecasting models are still divergent regarding the intensity of the forecast Hurricane so let's run through the pros and cons of such a system.
With it being much closer in proximity to Trestles, the surf will be consistent with a wide variation of wave sizes and periods. For viewers, this is much more favourable compared to the slow and lully conditions usually seen when long-period energy arrives from the Southern Ocean.
There's also a good chance the Hurricane swell will come in larger than the expected long-range energy, with a possible peak to 4-6ft due on Sunday.
The downsides are the short-lived nature of the swell, with it being mostly a one-day event (which, in any case, is all the WSL needs), while the lower-period sets will create a trickier, less predictable lineup for competitors. Again, not too bad.
The direction is also expected to come in much more squarer (towards pure south) making the right faster, sectiony, and likely shorter in length.
Winds for the Hurricane swell look generally favourable with light morning breezes ahead of fresher W/NW sea breezes, while local conditions for the long-range S/SW groundswell next Wednesday/Thursday are a touch dicey with onshore S/SE-SE winds.
What this all points to is a possible Finals Day on Sunday Californian time (Monday Australian time), though we'll continue to monitor the strength of the predicted Hurricane along with any changes to the size, local winds, and timing.
Comments
Curve-ball in a lot of ways. It's gonna change heat strategy entirely.
First big score usually controls the heat at Trestles, but when there might be many more heat-winning waves come through, you can't ride the priority like that.
How does Europe normally go off these kind of systems. Hurricane epsilon looked epic but anyone got experience with smaller systems like this.
"making the right faster, sectiony, and likely shorter in length."
Doesn't sound great, sounds like it could turn into an air fest where one big air gets a high score and wins a heat.
Combined with shorter period swell= more waves=more chances to keep trying airs to stick that big one.
Call me old school but id much rather see a combo of some big wraps, reo's combined with some variety, like lip line floaters, with maybe the odd air to mix things up.
I think most people, except the brazzo's would rather see real surfing than the little air pop's they love to do
Sounds maybe similar to the first year they had it there,...was a hurricane close by for that one too if i recall and it was kinda solid and a bit junky but way more entertaining than last years dribble.
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush
Would E-NE 'sea breezes' be offshore?
Aghh, sorry, W/NW. Edited. East Coast brain.
Hey Craig, I've been checking out your facebook account lol... you're a friend of Chris Scurrah (aka Scuzz). He's a legend, love him to bits :) My favourite person in the world, he has taken me to the most perfect empty waves ever and such a humble person.
Ha, nice!
A peninsula boy
Mt Martha, but a long time ago, has lived in Padang for over 20 odd years.
The more curve balls the better! Anything to make this disaster setup entertaining.
Jacks a wave magnet in those unpredictable line ups! Bring it on I say!
yeah dbut.
Been watching that from Morrocco.
You should score in Portugal.
I’d chop lefty off to surf Trestles with no one out, but it’s sooooooo fluffy that even at a decent size just won’t barrel.
Even if you did get a pit out there I doubt it would score
"should I stay or should I go"
........- The Clash.
Hurricane Jova looks pretty good if it behaves as modelled.
I'm seeing a light/mod NW-W flow which isn't bad for Trestles- runs cross shore down the line with the rights. Air wind for the lefts.
Could be a morning land breeze effect as well.
Jova, how good! Yep morning land breezes for sure.
Hey Craig, while we're on hurricanes, how's that medicane looking for Tunisia this week, looks like it will light up!?
At this stage it looks to be a weak low, the remnants of the system bringing all the flooding to Greece. Nothing overly significant at this stage.
Interesting news re tour next few years for Margs event , an applicaton for use of North Point for up to 4 days during the 31 day ( including set up and dismantle ) Margs event period
Planning application status currently , proposed 2024-2028 events
Bay crew love a comp
Cheers MH.
Great Intel!
I love it.
Tropical Storm Jova is going to get all.. Jovial.
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
Are these types of swell common for Trestles, or have the WSL just scored a massive stroke of luck to end an otherwise pretty bad year?
Fairly common it seems.
If I had a block of magic wax I know which break name I'd be chanting Thurs/Fri and it wouldn't be Trestles
Give us a hint !
Bahahaha.
Proper. So basically very likely going to be ON ~2am AEST Monday 11th?
Yep.
Bewdy
Rough Timezone for us. At least we’ll get to see the final couple of heats (sorry title match) at a reasonable hour.
……..wonder how much more cringy the Woz will try to make it this year? Anyone remember the boxing style intros on a stage from last year?
It looks like Hurricane Jova will steal the show for this year's Lowers event.
Tropical Storm Jova is currently deepening south of the Baja Peninsula, with it forecast to reach hurricane strength while tracking west-northwest, into southern California's swell window. At its peak it'll reach major hurricane strength (category three) while aiming a tight fetch of strong to gale-force S'ly winds towards California.
The forerunners of the hurricane swell are due to arrive later Saturday with a peak due Sunday morning (Monday Australian time) to a consistent 6ft out of the S'th (double-overhead) across Lowers, easing slowly through the day while tending more S/SW in direction.
There's the chance for the odd bigger clean-up set at the peak of the swell, but otherwise we're looking at consistent quality surf under light, local land breezes and weak afternoon W/NW sea breezes.
All in all this makes for an action packed Finals Day and fatigue may play a part in the crowning of the WSL Title IMO.
sick. Favours Jack Robbo imo.
My first thought was, it also favours Ethan. Then I thought further and it also favours Griffen, oh and Fil goes alright in 6 foot rights too.
…….should be a good battle.
…..tbh I think the Women’s is the one to watch for me.
WSL have published the judging criteria, and the first 3 points are about innovative and large airs, so I'd say Ethan already has the biggest disadvantage, no matter the conditions.
I wouldn't put too much stock on that Jono, the published criteria rarely means anything concrete in terms of scoring.
can lowers handle 6-8ft ?
Yeah, just.
Might be some ducking and weaving to find the good ones.
Like a stoner Nostradamus I predicted it was going to pump.
And the WOZ are going to pump it to their best corporate ability.
Although I don't think I'll be setting my alarm.
Hope they spread the show over two days, so everyone can ride clean waves in the mornings....
Pickles v c Moore final for the women
So would they be kicking off 12:30am Monday morning for us?
2am I believe.
Why start at 9? Wouldn’t you want to get it done before sea breezes?
They probably just to maximise crowds.
This forecast couldn't be good for Ethan could? Anyone know how he is fairing?
Seems to putting his back into it judging by the warmup clips posted on here. I'm sure he'll be sweet.
The way Phil surfed and won sunset I’d say the forcast suits him to a tee.
was watching a recent vid and i thought Mick Fanning was the stand out surfer ....and i know hes retired but he was ripping..
The forecast for Trestles is going to see a series "ho hum surfed heats leading into the weekend with slight increase in interest by the punters. There will be a moderate to high use of the word "super" by the commentators and the competitors. Bands of "waffle" will also stream through in the commentary box as they continually report on nothing happening. Finally there is a high to very high chance of airs being over scored by the judges for the Brazilian surfers, peaking in the finals.
A certain tabloid site has a rumour of not running on that hurricane swell?
JMD saying Sat or Sun in an Instagram story that's just gone up.
Cabo would be pumping all those right hand point breaks could be all time depending on the winds. When I was there they said September is the best time (we were there in March).
Imagine worrying about a swell coming in too big for a spot at the crowning moment of world surfing!
HA! Exactly. Especially when 'too big' is less than 2m.
At least it’s reliable-should be more surfable than Brazil, Supertubos, El Salvador etc. No barrels but hopefully some rail surfing and no one air claim waves!
In Oceanside at the moment what size we looking at for the weekend they are calling category 5 for Jova now
Craig's on leave at the moment, so I've just taken a quick look of the data and it looks like the hurricane has been tracking a little faster than original models predicted, which means the arrival time has sped up - the leading edge is now due to show later Friday (local time), and therefore Saturday should see building energy with the peak perhaps occurring that afternoon (not Sunday).
So - if the hurricane swell is deemed a better swell source than the southern-hemi long period groundswells - this suggests Saturday is a good contender for the event to run (Sunday will also have hurricane swell but we'll probably be on the backside of the pulse).
Sunday our time would be handy.
Definitely! Hard explaining to the boss u cant work because u stayed up all night watching the surfing!
Overnight, the Woz issued a yellow alert - 24 hrs notice - so it looks like Saturday local time could be it.
Tropical storm Eleven E …. EE ….. is that a sign from above
haha niiice!!
Beauty
Currently 6pm Friday night (local CA time), and buoy data is showing small long period S'ly swells (Tp 14-15 seconds) but with associated swell heights of only 2ft (near shore) and 3ft (offshore).
Suffice to say, we'll be expecting things to increase over the coming 12 hours in order for Saturday to be a viable option.
Hopefully they run tomorrow morning.
Also, how come there is no computer model forecasts for the America’s?
There are... just not publicly available :)
The betting sites are saying sunday am (their time,) , is game on... That's when the biggest amount of swell hits?
Or just bums on seats ?
A call by about midnight AEST - will they go? Will we stay up?
A bit excited as I've never watched this event before, you can all tell me its boring now.
If you can ignore the philosophical objection that they are not risking imminent death, it is very entertaining compared to most comp days. The surf is good. Every competitor is top quality and a bona fide contender. A world title is on the line.
Fark i'm hell confused hey.
Is it possible start tonight or tomorrow?
12:30am Sunday - First Call. About 5 hours from now.
Ahh shit! Thanks Burleigh!
Assuming we’re on tomorrow morn, is it weird to wake up and have a beer at 2am.
This is my “grand final” after all.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/conspiracy-theory-wsl-running-finals-182...
And while you wait for the surfing…SailGp Saint-Tropez is on today at 9.30. It’s fantastic viewing.
We don’t want to fall asleep before surfing starts