Rip Curl WSL Finals - Trestles Early Forecast
We're fast approaching the final event of the CT season, not a showdown at Pipeline, nor Teahupoo, but the high-performance playing field that is Lower Trestles.
Before we get into the forecast: The latest news is that Ethan Ewing is on the mend from his back injury and "doing everything he can to compete at Trestles." It's an astounding recovery, and his chances increase the deeper into the waiting period the contest goes. That said, the early outlook is quite positive for the Californian cobblestone pointbreak.
Trestles is located in San Clemente, on the southern Californian coastline, and open to South Pacific swells arriving from the south-southwest to south. Anything further west of south-west is blocked by the the Channel Islands, and at this time of the year the region picks up distant, long-period groundswells from strong Southern Ocean storms.
That equals inconsistency though very defined sets when they do wrap into the cobblestone point.
Predominantly a long running right, swells with with a bit more west in them favour the left, though it is shorter.
The prime swell window sits just east of a line drawn south of Tahiti. This provides unobstructed access to polar frontal systems and mid-latitude storms, and with a travel time ranging between seven to ten days, depending where the swell generating fetch is positioned.
With the waiting period kicking off in eight days (Friday September 8th), this means any storms firing up from now through the coming week will be generating swell for the event which runs until Saturday the 16th. This gives us a good idea on the outlook.
Firstly, a strong mid-latitude low that's currently generating a large S/SW swell for Teahupoo (arriving in Tahiti late Friday at a tow-only size) will arrive just before the start of the waiting period later next week.
Following this, there'll be a couple of days of minimal swell generating activity and this will result in small, easing mid-period swell for the opening day of the waiting period, Friday 8th, then bottoming out through next weekend.
More promisingly, we've got a great swell producer due to develop well east of New Zealand and south of Tahiti early next week. This will be a polar low which will have a couple of embedded fronts spawning off it as it stalls in Trestles prime swell window.
An initial, strong polar front projecting north-east should produce a moderate sized S/SW groundswell for mid-week, most likely Wednesday 13th, that looks to build to 3-4ft after lunch. Follow up activity looks generally weaker but persistent, with surf ebbing and pulsing either side of the 4ft range due through the middle to end of the waiting period.
Keep in mind they only need one day to complete the contest.
Winds are too hard to nail down this far out but the most likely scenario is for light morning land breezes ahead of afternoon sea breezes.
Comments
Will Toledo still wait for the small ones on a 3-4ft day?
i know you're just being silly but i have to go back to that pumping brazil contest where he just dominated in hollow rights that, if memory serves, must've been at least 6 feet, possibly even up to 8
Just is scared of hollow reef breaks - The Box, the poo, and I reckon throw in Cloudy as well. Just say it, he is a whimp for a supposed world champ which he is not, he is the wozzel champ.
He also won at Margaret river when it was like 8 foot - but yeh he is definitely nervous about shallow heavy water reef breaks - as most sane people are but his job as a pro is to master that fear and charge!
Boomswell comes early ,
5 days from Tahiti to Trestles.......
So says your competitor.
Thanks Craig. Is Trestles (at this time of year) an easier spot to be accurate with swell forecasts due to its reliance on these long period swells? (say when compared with the East coast Oz)
100%, mainly due to the large travel distance and time.
Oh man, I've been amping for this contest all year!
Said no one.
Is that you Filipe?
He doesn't have time to post here, he's busy dodging set waves.
LOL
Why are all swells landing just before each contest?
Run everything forward a week next year wos.....
EE fresh batch of boards..
Go jack !go EE! Go Griff! Next gen stepping up to the plate!
Shorter event windows this year
Gotcha,
Wow, the whole condensing format favours no one.
There will be waves Trestles is a magnet.
It’s a magnet for shit waves with minimal power and hollowness, perfect world championship decider conditions. Pondi is better
Ha, ha can't add anything else!
Swell arriving early was odds on!
I love that you're forecasting a swell to arrive after lunch in 14 days time.. legend!
Hahaha.
I kind of hope the surf is 1-2 foot onshore mush. Yes Toledo will win but the chances of that are high anyway. Anything to shadow this location in doubt for deciding future world titles would be welcome
I like this thinking.
Amen
Can’t script this
You'd be extremely brave to bet against Toledo at 3-4ft Trestles.
Edit: that second storm looks pretty good. Hope Huey highballs it and sends a few bigger sets EE's way.
This biggest gamble is the time between sets and how many waves in a set.
These swells travel so far
Sometimes the waves get lost along the way.
One heat pumps one heat is sleepy.
Swell angle and swell decay are also big factors
all the same dialogue you guys said about Carrisa last year and she was thrashed . Toledo will lose in the final . Griff will despatch Joao in the lead up and make short work of the champ .
Watching this event will be like seeing your mate out with your ex ..don’t really want watch but will cast an eye over it occasionally..
I was going to write something along the lines of...... And the world champion of the shittest year of waves goes to......
To his credit he won sunset , and other events and would probably take out the title off points alone.
I'm kinda done with the fil hate.
He has surfed so well this year.
*
Sorry Lanky I haven't. He has to look at least like he is trying at the poo if he is to be at the top of the tree. That was really whimpy what was it 1.5?
Memlasurf,
You have at him ,
I had these questions 10 years ago. He surfed great at sunset this year.
I like that he's on quads. Yeah nah he doesn't go...........
9 pointes , 9 pointes
Not at Teahupoo.......
I was more so having a dig at he average run of waves for the year, so far..
Was anywhere maxing..?
But, If Fil takes out the title it won't because of what he did at Chopes...
IMHO the best condition's for Toledo to excel these days is actually overhead conditions not big but just that nice 4 to 5ft range.
Its no longer his airs or real small wave surfing thats his strength its his big wrapping carves off the lip.
Of course those condition's also suit many others too.
Great observation indo, I really enjoy watching fil .he has surfed great this year.
Also bit over the Fil neg. Fil surfed good against hog. He’s no charger, but he’s contributed to surfing in a huge way.
Hope they run on the last day, give Ethan an extra week of rehab.
Come on EE!!
I agree about Filipe. It’s probably fair to say he does not like heaving slabs. But, he started the year by making the quarters at Pipe and then he won at Sunset so suggesting he only excels in small waves is just plain wrong.
His problem is hollow lefts- his Dad has now come out and openly admitted his skill set and mindset is not up for it at Chopes.
He does OK at small Pipe (this year) but struggles at proper Pipe.
He's fine at Sunset.
I used to like Fil, but between the way he acted after that Jacko Baker heat at Bells this year, and his refusal to have a dig in hollow waves I’ve lost all respect for him. I don’t care how good he is at J bay, Sunset or Trestles, he’ll always have an asterisk next to his world title(s).
Btw, not an anti brazzo bias, I love Gabe, Yago and Italo.
Fil has a quick style and an amazing air game no doubt. But he has never inspired me to surf. I can’t explain it really. His style is so flicky, double : triple pump bottom turns etc. However when I watch most of the other world champs especially guys like JJ it’s often like muuwwahh I would love to surf like that. Maybe it’s just we have been spoiled with the world champs we have had in the past
I'm glad his carry on at Bells hasn't been forgotten. That was so bad.
Funny how he didn’t carry on in the same manner after the Tahitian wildcard completely pantsed him at 3ft chopes.
1 heat where he got beaten by a guy thats been retired for over 10 years and a recovered drug addict.
Toledo was holding on for dear life in the tubes that heat, hog was twice as good as him.
every other heat he's had out there he has hardly caught a wave. He deserves everything he gets.
All power to you EE!
Can't wait to see how Pickles goes.
Same, hope she kills it. She has been looking sharp over the last few days up the coast
I'll watch some pretty pointless mid-season heats, but switched off Trestles finals when it was on last year. It is such a bad event.
So our 14th?
At this stage yeah.
That’s the only reason I’m watching hopefully pickles can repeat a Steph like performance and win the title..actually all the Aussies
Saw Jack training last week with the HPC crew doing whip-ins at 1.5' Kingscliff. The airs he was doing in those little waves were mental with a 90%+ completion rate. I wouldn't write him out of this....
Good call SL 67.
If there are sets and he gets on a roll, he could do a Steph.
hmmm , some late mail , cheers SL67.
Should be a be a bit of value too.
As FR said 'you'd have to be a brave man to bet against Fil at 3/4ft Trestles'... It's probably going to be a donation to the bookies but you never know. $10 on the nose it is.
jack can do it !
So can EE!
So can Griff !
Two people in the final 5 who didn't even make the cut last year.
Exciting.
He seems pretty amped up after Chopes, I’d put a lobster on Jack for the win.
100% Coops. If self confidence is a factor he’s going to slay
I wonder if ELO will be quietly watching , whilst drinking out of a red cup with his fil shirt on ?
US ( not HAW ) has had 1 world champ other than slater in the last 30 years. I’m pitching for a beyond the grave Elo manufactured Grif dubious points win
But I’m ok with that, I like the boy
Such a SHIT end to a season.. Ditch this shit wave altogether, bring back Cloudbreak or another world class reef... I can even watch this break... yuuuuuk
Don't hate the player, hate the game. If hollow lefts are more important, then they should be worth more points. Fil has just collected more points during the year, that is all. Not sure why so much hate towards the guy. The article was just about Trestles forecast.
Steph is an amazing surfer who isn't good at hollow lefts either, but it wouldn't be nice to see so much negativity towards her for that reason or "asterisks" next to her world titles.
Some funny jokes about it are entertaining, but rhe world needs constructive criticism, not plain bullying.
Regardless of the conditions, this format is the biggest anti-climatic climax in world sport
You ever watched test cricket ?
I have .....LOL
Base ball is pretty slow as is American football.
Goes with the country putting the show on .
Ethan's back works.
Impressive.
And here's a promising curve-ball.
A hurricane now looks to generate some moderate to large sized, consistent S'ly swell for the start of the waiting period. Update tomorrow!
Phwoar sick! Thats ideal for a comp instead of a super distant swell source. Might even stay up now
haha, well, we'll see!
What's "large sized" in height?
Probably double overhead, 6ft sets.
The sacrificial GOAT has finally broken the curse of Elo and all 10 Logan’s Heroes will be able to break out of Camp Lemoore under Jessie miler Schultz’s watch and compete in some good waves
The sacrificial GOAT has finally broken the curse of Elo and all 10 Logan’s Heroes will be able to break out of Camp Lemoore under Jessie miler Schultz’s watch and compete in some good waves
Thanks, still can't get my head around wave heights... I've always measured wave height from where I stand surfing, face height... don't get how waves are measured from the back, like we don't surf the back of the wave, so why isn't double overhead 12ft if I'm 6 foot tall? Ok, old school maybe and your quite welcome telling me I'm "not with it"
We don't measure from the back either, ie slabs have no back but can have 12ft faces.
Just go with the convention most Aussies are used to, ie half the wave face. 6ft face = 3ft wave, 12ft face = 6ft wave = 2x overhead.
Yeah ok, I get it... but... is a slab wave has no back and a 12ft face, then how do you measure the size?
The amount of skid marks in your wetty
Ha, that's clever and funny, I like it, but doesn't answer the question.
From the face and then halve it :)
@PJbyron: you can’t really think about it super mathematically.
If it helps, just call it knee, shoulder, head, double OH high.
I don’t know how they keep track when you’re getting into the proper 15-20 foot realm.
yeah thanks @solitude, I always call size by knee, chest, head high etc. But it still does my head in a bit, this back of the wave thing, lol. And yeah, I notice when it's serious big the size is more determined by the face height so that's confusing for me.
No not at all. I’m talking about legit surfer’s 15 feet (not 30 foot faces). At that scale I don’t know how they call it (as I’ve never experienced it). It’s one of those things I guess that if you’ve lived it, you know….
……same is said for smaller surf. It’s not about the ‘back of the wave’ or whatever, you ‘just know’………there’s a lot of nuance, eg. There’s 4-6 foot and then there’s really heavy 4-6 foot - I don’t think it can really be explained apart from time in the water.
Just like looking at a wave and knowing what direction the swell is, the feeling before a storm, that sense the wind has changed, you know it by being around it and paying attention to it.
The only crew who talk about wave face height are yanks and brits.
Anyway, probably doesn’t need to be over thought, it is what you reckon it is.
Or in the case of Shippies, it has no front.
That crazy pic you guys posted the other day for wave of the day was about 1 foot of face and 15 foot of back!
Stoked, I'm actually starting to get pretty frothy for this.
Can Trestles handle double overhead?
Yeah, check the latest video, near 2x overhead there. Some 4-5ft sets on take off. Looks like we might see a peak to 5-6ft on the biggest ones.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/reels/2023/09/04/watch-finals-day-warm-ses...
Is the new curve ball ok for the winds?
Not ideal but the other groundswells now look to arrive with lingering onshore S/SE winds. So they'll probably run Sunday regardless.
S/Dr wind usually mean fog town marine layer stuff. Brutal really.