Vivo Rio Pro: Forecast Update

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Dispatch

The best day of the Rio Pro waiting period may have already been run, with the WSL's visit falling in between swell episodes.

The week leading up to the contest pumped - as has been the case at many venues this year - and a reinforcing S/SE swell provided fun, clean 3-4ft waves to kick off the event, but we're now in the doldrums. The reduced waiting period of ten days doesn't help, but there is a swell due on the final days of the waiting period.

The surf is due to remain tiny to flat until Wednesday, when a small southerly swell arrives.

The source was a small, weak and brief fetch of strong S'ly winds on the western flank of a polar low yesterday. It'll be inconsistent with sets building to the 2ft range due through the day, with the rare bigger one possibly in the mix.

Conditions will be clean in the morning ahead of relatively weak sea breezes. Whether they run or not depends on whether they want small and clean waves, or a bigger swell with onshore winds - which will arrive later in the week and is discussed below. Keep in mind, the contest needs two more days to run.

Thursday looks like a lay day as the swell fades away, ahead of the aforementioned new swell building through Friday, the second last day of the waiting period. The source of the swell will be a close-range trough pushing up the South American east coast, with initially strong S/SW winds, easing as the trough pushes more into the Atlantic Ocean.

The trough will bring unfavourable winds to the coast as it builds Friday, onshore and moderate to fresh from the SE - messy yet contestable - though there's a good chance for more favourable easterly breezes early-mid morning. The sets should build to 4-5ft+ due through the day, easing steadily Saturday from 4ft.

Conditions look better Saturday morning with offshore NE winds, which will swing to gusty E/SE through the day, as the swell continues to wane in size.

With workable back to back days at the end of the waiting period, our hunch is the WSL might focus on the last two days of the waiting period, though it won't look especially good for viewers at home.

We can only hope for better surf in J-Bay thanks to a continuation of active Southern Ocean frontal systems.

Comments

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 8:07am

Karma is killing the Woz.
If they get skunked at JBay surely ELo knows to put the cue in the rack.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 12:17pm

I can think of a much better place to put it.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 1:49pm

It's hilarious isn't it.
You couldn't plan this year;s horrible conditions and missed swells if you tried!

stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 5:05pm

Conspiracy theory - they have perfectly planned and timed the events to miss good conditions at each location in order to sell more wave pools and create the WSL wave pool circuit

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 5:15pm

Haha!

tyzee63's picture
tyzee63's picture
tyzee63 Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 7:16pm

haha!

3vickers's picture
3vickers's picture
3vickers Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 8:14am

thx for the update craig- poor woz can’t seem to buy a trick of late

hackonayak's picture
hackonayak's picture
hackonayak Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 8:28am

If you're waiting for good waves in Brazil ...you might want to get a monthly rental apartment.... Brazil needs to be dropped off the tour for a location than isn't a 3rd world quality wave starved shit hole..

moronifeifosa's picture
moronifeifosa's picture
moronifeifosa Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 8:32am

I get why we need the Brazil stop on tour, but why won't they come down here to Florianopolis? pretty consistent with better waves than itauna (not barrinha, but looks like wsl is ignoring that wave for some reason)

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 9:43am

Logic and foresight have no place in the WSL. They couldn't organise their way out of a paper bag. Want proof? They timed G-Land with the worst possible tides / phase of the moon, got shit waves, and now they're like "Yeah G-Land doesn't really make sense for us right now". No G-Land, No Ments, No Cloudbreak, No Snapper. But we get a wave pool, Rio, and the finals at Trestles.

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 10:21am

You’d hope someone looks at tide and moon chart’s before working out the schedule in an organisation that relies so much Mother Nature???

Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 2:51pm

HAHA - great summary

pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 11:28am

Well, it's pretty flat this week around here in Floripa too... :( Brazil has lots of really fun beach breaks, but not consistent magical point breaks, like other spots on tour. Our beach breaks are no worse than the Northern Beaches, IMHO.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 12:19pm

Yep just beach breaks.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 12:01pm

Not impressed by your forecast here Craig.
Haven't you got a magic swell wand or something?

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 1:26pm

Craig just has the starter kit. Maximum three ocean basins.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 at 1:28pm

Ha.

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 1:59am

WSL is a circus with the ring masters being the air show tricksters! JJF got a 9 for one such trick on a 3ft grovel wave & the Brazilian boyz love a little closeout beachie to push their trolleys on! Give me waves of consequence to view ie: Cloudbreak, The End of The Road, Pipe, Sunset J-Bay, Snapper behind the ROCK @ 4ft++& G-Land in a solid off the Ice shelf swell any day compared to Kelly's TUB, Rio, & a 2 turn closeout in WA (when NTH Point & THE Box bekon!!!).The WOZ seems to be shooting itself in the foot oh & by the way the volume is on mute when Big Pete & Joey Turdpell Chris Corte etc are spewing their verbal diarrhea! PLEASE!

Greebs's picture
Greebs's picture
Greebs Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 1:04pm

Turdpell! But should be Turdpull

therealneil's picture
therealneil's picture
therealneil Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 7:43am

Turdpail
ie shit bucket

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 8:42am

Yea it’s funny, skating or motor cross are like let’s make this ramp bigger and crazier to appeal to the masses, surfing is going the opposite direction. Is it supposed to be in the “extreme or action” sport category or not really.

scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 6:47am

Woke SL is becoming less relevant year by year care factor zero these days . Way too many shit stops on the tour to even come close to call it a dream tour . Brazil just another puss beachbreak

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 12:33pm

What is the correlation between their 'wokeness' and the places they choose to hold the tour?

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 12:36pm

Not a lot considering the human rights abuses in El Salvador alone.

scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 1:20pm

Nothing just having a dig how they big note themselves with all the equal gender stuff then don't have equal numbers on tour,, woketards at work in US . As for Brazil has it ever been pumping ever for a comp there .

JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 6:56am

The whole tour is just a waste of time and money now. I used to like tuning in to the events but have completely lost interest. They either need a complete overhaul (the primary focus of which would be to run in good waves) or they need to fold.

RockyIsland's picture
RockyIsland's picture
RockyIsland Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 7:48am

Bring on the WSL longboard tour in 10 to 12 ft Bells start end of August/Start of Sept...that could be entertaining with no leg ropes and single fin logs.
Get Joel Tudor to commentate

frog's picture
frog's picture
frog Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 8:25am

The Ziff family fortune is now worth $15billion. They can afford a loss making WSL.

So it would be better to have a loss making dream tour at the best spots in peak swells that everyone loves than a loss making snooze tour in small beachbreaks with Turps trying to convince us that tired old spins and bunny hops are exciting and progression.

Either way they lose money they can afford. But the dream tour option would at least come with a sense of pride and core audience positivity.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 8:23am

That's a great and fair point!

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 9:07am

Or the Ziff's could pull out and cure hunger in some countries.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 9:14am

That as well :/

mpeachy's picture
mpeachy's picture
mpeachy Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 9:19am

Someone floated on here a while back the idea of having a subscription channel which picks up all surf-related events (including bodyboarding, longboarding, challenger events etc.) so there's always content.

I reckon I would pay for that if it meant going back to dream tour days, when we didn't have to have wave pools and finals in crap waves to make money.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 9:50am

The way WSL handled Bethany Hamilton after she spoke up and had some questions regarding the new transgender rule says everything you need to know about the WSL.

Bethany is the most inspiring women in surfing yet when it was international womens day and the surfed had to choose a women who inspires them, Hamilton was nowhere to be seen.

According to BL and others, her name was not allowed as she spoke up about the transgender rule introduced in surfing.

Fuck the WSL

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 10:49am

A travesty the way she's been treated.

Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 11:39pm

No,
She issued a statement saying that she is boycotting the WSL.
They didn’t boycott her. It was her choice.
BL is brain dead

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 10:18am

OMG! She issued a statement as the only female pro surfer to make a stand against the WSLs bat shit woke crazy transgender rule.
She was the only one brave enough to make that statement even though the majority agreed.

And that's how they re-pay her. By banning the most inspirational surfers name off the back of jerseys in International women's week even though she was selected by more than one surfer.

Go woke, go broke WSL

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 1:01pm

The WSL aren't going broke cos they've gone "woke", they are failing because they suck in basically every aspect of their organisation.

"She was the only one brave enough to make that statement even though the majority agreed." How would you know, fella?

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 2:34pm

You be happy for your daughter who has trained her whole life in a sport to compete against a biological male that has only tested for one year at a certain hormone level? I wouldn’t be.

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 2:48pm

Did you hear her argument? Bethany is a simpleton.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 2:58pm

So you support the WSL transgender rule regarding trans women competing against women?

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 3:32pm

Sure, why not. What's gonna happen is not what she's saying's gonna happen, or what you think is gonna happen though, so relax already.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 3:43pm

I’ve found him. I’ve found the problem

pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongstth... Wednesday, 28 Jun 2023 at 3:55pm

Slab assaults gaining ground sparked by Cape Fear. I foresee a tour in the long run. 2 photographers, one in the pond, one on the bricks, Coconut Rothman, Carol and the likes in the booth. Don't need many stops, 4 - 6 will do. Look what Tim and Nathan are feeding us; come on blokes, let's step it up. IT WILL happen fellas. Optimism abounds

dean maddison's picture
dean maddison's picture
dean maddison Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 8:35am

WSL contest update for Brazil should read off forever, next update never.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 8:36am

Ha!

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 9:22am

Craig, I know it's still a bit far out but I'm seeing a sleepy Southern Ocean for the starting few days of J-Bay ? What's your take on it ??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 10:26am

It's way too early to speculate Seal. It'll chop and change quite a bit.

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 12:12pm

Ok thanks, let’s hope for some decent surf for a change

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 10:06am

I think I have figured this tour schedule out...the WSL openly said they are about creating content....Then I scrolled down their webpage and found the inspirational fly on the wall content titled "Enjoy Corona Lay Days" the latest episode presser is "Corona Lay Days gives you an inside look at what Championship Tour star Tatiana Weston-Webb and her friends get up to when competition pauses and the lay day begins."

so to create this type of content...you need what.....you guessed it...lay days....so lets put the comps in breaks that will allow us to create maximum content.

they are way smarter than us

Derrick's picture
Derrick's picture
Derrick Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 11:46am

The tour is unwatchable. Snapper, Bells, Cloudbreak, Taihitii, G-Land, J-Bay and then cap it off with a finish in Triple Crown Hawaii. Longer event windows. That’s the only way I could watch it all. But then nobody cares what I think, I’m just a spectator. Time for the Florence Rebel tour, much more watchable and entertaining.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 12:10pm

That would be the ultimate Derrick. Proper triple crown to finish would be epic.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 2:02pm

It's a pinnacle of surfing the triple crown. But wait, we now have the Olympics instead, and.... Trestles.

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 3:24pm

LIV surf tour?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 3:57pm

Just as a heads up:

Now that the organisers have waited until the end of the period, Steve won't be able to write a recap for the final two days. He's headed to FNQ on AL.

If there's some sizzle, he'll write an article when he returns next Tuesday.
If it fizzles, we'll see y'all at J-Bay.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 4:06pm

Couldn't have timed it better. Well played Steve.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Friday, 30 Jun 2023 at 1:22am

First Slaters mystery illness sees him missing Brazil.
Now FRs hols just happen to coincide with this snoozefest called a comp.
I smell a rat!!
Have a hell time FR!

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 3:59pm

For shizzle.

Way ahead of you.

3vickers's picture
3vickers's picture
3vickers Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 7:45pm

thx stu - enjoy your hols steve

….i’m hoping for some epic surf in a ct sometime soon- just to stop the whining and complaining that’s going on everywhere here

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Thursday, 29 Jun 2023 at 8:53pm

a journalist, worn down by city noise... wrote a book after moving to N.Qld.

"We cannot always trust in ourselves and in the boldest of our illusions. There must be trial. "
"Whosoever looks for the relation of sensational adventures, exciting situations, or even humorous predicaments, will assuredly be disappointed."
FREEBook "The Confessions of a Beachcomber" by E J Banfield published in 1908
Reference https://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks/e00056.html

Preface
"If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer.
Let him step to the music which he hears."--THOREAU

julioadler's picture
julioadler's picture
julioadler Friday, 30 Jun 2023 at 12:16am

On a happier note, Saturday might be a good surprise if the direction is good enough.
Low tide in the morning, with very little change through the day.
Expect an air show in the finals if the wind doesn't blow too hard (south winds would be great for flying in the lefts).