Surf City El Salvador Pro - Long Range Forecast
Following all the kerfuffle at the Surf Ranch event, the Wozzle will be hoping the internet shifts its attention from judging hoopla to the actual surfing at the next event in El Salvador. It may even happen before the first hooter blows with good waves due through the lead up period.
The waiting period kicks off next Friday, the 9th of June. The start time translating to midnight Friday Australian Eastern time - only the most ardent Aussie fans need apply for this one.
La Libertad, the boulder strewn right-hand point where competition is being held, has an enormous swell window. Ostensibly it's open to the whole Southern Pacific, with SW to S/SW groundswells being the most favourable for producing fast, walled-out rights. Too west and it's slow, too south and the sections will get ahead of the surfer - as we saw through some days of competition last year.
To open affairs, a strong mid-latitude low that's currently projecting towards Chile will generate a moderate to large S/SW groundswell for the first half of next week, providing a couple of great warm-up sessions.
For the opening day of the waiting period, a smaller, inconsistent background swell from south-east of New Zealand looks to provide infrequent 3-4ft sets, with a better, more S/SW swell due to arrive into the second day of the waiting period.
This swell will be generated by another mid-latitude low forming west of Chile, projecting strong to gale-force S/SW winds up through El Salvador's southern swell window - see image below. More consistent 4ft+ waves should be seen from this source along with light morning offshore winds and manageable sea breezes from the south-southwest, coming from behind the wave.
Now, starting later this weekend, the recent purple patch of Southern Ocean frontal activity under Australia will transition to the east, with a great polar frontal progression due to develop south-east of New Zealand. This will then continue eastwards while broadening in scope, generating a prolonged yet inconsistent S/SW groundswell event.
The inconsistency is a product of it forming 10,000kms away from El Salvador. The travel time will be 9-10 days, with it due to arrive towards the end of the waiting period.
That will be through the middle to end of the following week, with the long-period forerunners due to arrive later Tuesday El Salvador time, building further Wednesday, peaking into the afternoon and then easing slowly Thursday.
Infrequent but strong sets to 4-5ft+ should develop through Wednesday, easing from a similar size on Thursday. Due to the broadening nature of the system, reinforcing pulses of southerly groundswell from the same system are due into the end of the waiting period.
At that point, we're looking too far away to have real confidence in the wave size, yet it's enough to know that the trends are positive therefore the outlook is too. We'll hone in on wave size at the end of the waiting period as we get closer.
Local winds look favourable through most of the period, though a trough may interfere with things Wednesday week, but this is too far away to have any confidence.
We'll continue to monitor the South Pacific over the coming fortnight for any major upgrades to the swell potential.
Comments
Nostradamus
What's the next calamity for the WSL? An organization already plagued with bad luck and poor timing for decent waves, controversial and inept judging, even when waves are pool perfect, and ongoing negative publicity. Maybe an earthquake in El Salvador will shake things up even more. Can't script that. Shit happens, as do magical days, or horrible waves...such is the nature of surfing. But at least this forecast looks a little more hopeful. Thanks Craig. Good luck all.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us7000k58f...
Such a fun wave, one of my favourites.
Will be great to see some original surf heats again besides the artificial bullshit in the wave pool ..( should be used for training only ) not competing..
After reading through some of the thousands of comments about the wavepool event, it occurred to me that wsl should make the wavepool like the nba or mlb all-star games, which happen at midway through those pro league seasons. The event wouldn’t count towards end of year results, but could be a specialty event.
Waves at the start, flat through the middle, with a bang at the end.
I've been in El Salvador since December. There's been swell since the start of May although Punta Roca needs heaps more swell than the other breaks here. I'll surf it if it's a weekday and the swell is above 1.6m because that overwhelms my local wave.
It's crowded but a really good wave. I always get at least a couple of good ones but it never comes easy. Best at mid to high tide and in the morning.
The circus is already in town with the ISA games and I've seen a certain CT pro at my local point a couple of times. It's meant to be pumping on Tuesday but it will be packed with pros no doubt. I'll probably go for a paddle though. It's only a few minutes down the road.
It's a really good place for surfing but for all Aussies reading, it's no Indo. More expensive too.
Que es de Gallo ?
Anyone watching the ISA event there? Lots of top names relegated to the repercharges in what's looking like quite good waves
Yeah i just happened to watch half of JJFs heat against a German, a Pol and another European country i can't remember. Quite bizarre.
It's good seeing an event broadcast that doesn't have all the Woz shiz shoveled down your throat...even though some of the same commentators (and worst i'd say).
Actually found myself watching a bit of the Fiji Pro (did anyone know this was a thing) of windsurfing today and yesterday and it was kinda sick. Big unruly cloudbreak and windsurfers getting skittled on the shishkebab section.
I enjoyed it 100 times more than the tub comp, even though i had no idea what was going on and the coverage was shonky and the commentary alot more ruthless and gritty. Was great!
It's not rocketscience. Put the best surfers in the best forking waves!!
Is that ISA being broadcast somewhere live?
It's been on Youtube FR.
I'd caught the second half of the final this arvo and thoroughly enjoyed the solid cloudbreak vision. Commentary was interesting to say the least. Worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/live/mfU6UT1y2bI?feature=share
*Fiji windsurfing final
I'm just watching bits of the ISAs on their website. Mainly interested in how the kiwis are going but just checked in now and the heat in the water is Joao, Filipe, Kahli Vaast and another guy. Pretty high calibre surfing. Interesting to note how many CT stars haven't progressed very far
JJF just got knocked out overnight too and for some reason both Caroline Marks and Carissa Moore pulled out of their heats this morning
Jordy looking good on warm up
Timed his run poorly as the judges without acknowledging to the public and surfers, revert to scoring chop hop reverses over seamless rail surfing.