The waiting period has begun and the outlook for the event hasn't changed much at all. We can, however, start to zero in on the specifics.

In short, there's a ton of swell inbound thanks to an overactive Atlantic Ocean, but the storm track is pushing a little too far east, clipping the Portuguese coast. This will bring persistent onshore winds that will play havoc as the organisers seek to kick things off. The conditions will finally improve through the final days of the event window.

The outlook into the end of this week isn't ideal with strong, onshore winds expected through Day Two (which kicks off this evening Australian time), easing a little tomorrow but remaining moderate to fresh out of the south-southwest.

Moving into the weekend, onshore west-southwest winds will persist on Saturday as the swell reaches a temporary low point.

A new, large westerly groundswell is expected Sunday, generated by a broad low forming in the Atlantic today, with a great fetch of strong to gale-force winds due to project east-northeast towards the United Kingdom.

Broad, strong low generating Sunday's swell

Large 8ft surf should be seen across Supertubos but the main issue are the local winds. Early, variable south-southeast breezes are likely, though quickly shifting SW through the morning and freshening. This will create lumpy, deteriorating conditions that will remain average into Monday as winds shift west-northwest. Regardless, they'll probably look to run on Sunday in tricky, solid conditions.

Tuesday and Wednesday will provide much cleaner conditions as winds finally swing offshore from the northern quadrant along with a reinforcing, mid-period west-northwest swell to the 6ft range on the sets. The contest organisers will be attempting to get as many heats run as possible during these two days.

The final day of the waiting period - Thursday, Match 16th - may see a larger westerly groundswell filling in but we'll continue to monitor this.

Supertubos 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs