The Mobile Generation
Had a fun surf with a twenty-something fella the other day. Good laugh, nice chat, shared a shred. Nothing unusual, right?
Wrong.
Highly unusual, at least for the most part. Unless you are surfing Byron Bay with achingly cool hipster gals, the twenty-something is becoming a rarity around here in the ocean. Almost a lost generation.
Why?
For the same reason single mums are sending kids to school out of the backs of cars. There's nowhere to live and what housing there is has become crushingly expensive.
My new pal came up here for work from the South Coast somewhere. His search for a place to live was in vain. “Couldn't find anywhere mate,” he tells me. “A single bed shitbox in Casino was 500 bucks a week!”
So he lives in his van.
Another mate who I'll call Bob, a smooth and skilful surfer, lives in a Troopy, migrating between the North Coast where he works as a glasser and South Australia where he drives tractors for broad acre agriculture. The problem is not work, there's plenty of that, but putting a roof overhead.
The housing crisis is in full swing and the numbers are brutal. According to CoreLogic, in the past twelve months there's been a 32% increase in rental costs in Byron Shire, 28.4% in Ulladulla, and 26.1% in Buderim on the Sunshine Coast. If you show up to the rental properties available in Ballina Shire you'll find long queues. Sharply dressed work-from-homers step out of new Teslas, offering hundreds above the listed price and paying twelve months up front. It's a vicious Darwinian game and the deepest pockets get the kill. Losers leave town or live in cars, if they are lucky. The housing crisis, according to Ballina State MP Tamara Smith, has now become a “full-blown emergency”.
This coastal town is flooded with new money. Big money. Be careful reverse parking as a scratch on a new Audi or Range Rover will set you back hundreds if not thousands.
A coastal farmhouse in 1974 cost five bucks a week rent with milk included. The same place now will be upwards of $800 a week. Blocks of land on the North Coast that sold for $40,000 in the year 2000 are now expected to fetch $850,000. The speed of change is dizzying.
Inter-generational wealth is the deciding factor for living on the coast, and it will continue into the future. The effects will be profound. As yet, we haven't even attempted to grapple with them.
When you price the working class, and now even the middle class, out of the coast, surfing level declines concomitantly. Wealthy boomers and tech bros in Teslas might keep coastal cafes booming but they drag down the overall level of surfing. We've seen that in Sydney, which used to be a hotbed of surfing talent, but now struggles to produce QS-level surfers.
Former blue collar suburbs like Bondi and Manly have long been the province of the wealthy. “Surf peasants,” as my old boss and Manly legend Lester Brien called them, largely split for the country during the early-70's Country Soul migration, dragging a lot of the surfing talent with them and seeding the growth of world class surfers in the regions from their progeny. The remaining spirit and energy of the punk era begat the “bastard desire” of Sydney's last great flowering as a source of Australian surfing talent. The decline since Tom Carroll, Damien Hardman, Barton Lynch, etc etc strode the world stage, has been precipitous.
Some neoliberal optimists claim wavepools will fill the void. I profoundly disagree.
My son and his crew surf, for free. Right now, they are frothed on skateboarding. Last Saturday, he and three of his friends started at Ballina skatepark at 7am. They skated until 11am. We shifted to Lennox skatepark and they went from 12 till 3. We drove to Mullum and went from 4.30 till 6.30. Hundreds, maybe thousands, of reps through the day. The cost? Thirty bucks in fuel, twenty bucks in hot chips.
The cost to run a similar program at URBNSURF, Australia's only commercially available wavepool?
I make it $1,699 for six hours for four twelve-year old boys.
John John Florence's will be not springing up out of the urban fabric for that cost.
Many, many more will be lost due to being priced out of the coast then will be gained from having wavepools nearby, unless private corporations out of the goodness of their hearts start giving away expensive man-made waves for free. Maybe in the next lifetime but not in this one, despite all the glossy PR 'social inclusivity' spiels they put out.
Human migrations and convulsions are nothing new and some explanations have been attempted.
Jared Diamond in his 1997 book 'Guns, Germs, and Steel' posits a bio-geographical framework to understand and explain the differing fates of human societies through history. Peoples with access to high carbohydrate vegetation that could be turned into crops, and wild animals that could be domesticated, were able to form societies with surpluses and thus form powerful states that were immune to animal-borne diseases and had access to superior technology. They prospered and conquered others.
Via similar reasoning, surfing nations rise and develop cultures when the confluence of affordable coastal living, available waves, and young people with the time and means to pursue it converge. No-one could argue that a fundamental shift in those factors is now occurring and that Australian surfing is in the death throes of what could loosely be termed its 'Morning of the Earth' era as a result.
History is full of happy accidents when circumstances converged to create the conditions of great art, or scientific advancement, or musical hotbeds. Take the North Coast in the 70's and 80's for example. Depopulated, depressed rural economies offered dirt cheap living, the welfare state enabled surfers to survive, even thrive for next to nothing in semi-communal living arrangements, augmented by cash work or small scale drug growing and selling. Ironically, that Utopian ambition led to the dominance of Australian competitive surfing. Those times in our very recent history are now over and the results are becoming manifest.
In California, the results have been manifest for a generation. Its elite surfers are all dynastic; born into it if you will. Kolohe Andino: pro surfer father. Conner Coffin: born to wealth and connection. Likewise Griffin Colapinto. Kanoa Igarashi was determined by his parents to be a pro surfer from before his birth. Dane Reynolds was the last outlier: born inland at Bakersfield to non-surfing parents and discovered surfing in a non-structured, working class milieu. There are no more Dane Reynolds coming down the pipeline.
That's the macro level. At the individual level, it's people who can't afford to put a roof over their head. For now it's fine for my South Coast pal and Bob to be mobile. Van life ain't all it's cracked up to be - it's cramped and stinky and sucks when it rains- but it beats paying a landlord an arm and a leg every week. It's fabulous living the nomadic life, until it ain't. Usually the day you realise the real estate sitch is a game of musical chairs and with each passing year there are fewer chairs and they cost more. The end game is not pretty when the music stops.
Will there be a correction that enables the Mobile Generation to settle down?
Otherwise...what? Shanty towns, refugee camps, a reverse dust bowl migration where surfers head inland en masse because they can't afford to live near the coast?
Don't laugh. "Money can't buy happiness", sung Jordan Davis, but it can buy dirt. Increasingly, if that dirt is anywhere near the coast you'll need to be born rich to afford it.
// STEVE SHEARER
Comments
Well that cheered me up.
The article may have been depressing, but your comment first off the rank certainly made me laugh.
Same here in west oz. Homeless (vanlife) crew everywhere. Litter and shit everywhere. Fly season approaching….
i whipper snippered a fresh French vanlifer shit all over my chaps recently while trying to tidy up their digs in a remote SW surf carpark... mmm mmmmm epic
This generation has been totally shafted, beyond a shadow of a doubt. I posted this in the House Price thread but it seems relevant here. Take away for those unable to access.
“The rules of the home-ownership game are rigged in favour of existing home owners. That’s because they far outnumber aspiring home owners. And they’re not willing to give up their tax and other privileges to help the younger generation.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/vested-interest-how-the-home...
At a time when family homes are worth tens of millions and have had their value increase by orders of magnitude, it is time to bring in a capital gains tax for houses in the top 10% of the range.
What a load of BS.
Care to expand on that Robo?
No point, have think about it what you wrote not the article.
The quote was from a highly regarded economic journalist. My suggestion on a capital gains tax on high value properties is pretty mainstream also, so I have no.idea what you find so objectionable. Unless of course you are planning on selling your $10 million family home.
I personally mourn the loss of really characterful panelvans - Holden HGs and WBs, Ford XWs and XBs, the Chrysler Valiant Vans and even little things like Escorts. The boxes on wheels don't do it for me, though they have more space. The great old vans don't have to be lairy Sandmans or Drifters - just an honest car-based pannelly with a bench front seat. First surf beast in my surfing life was a mate's light pastel blue HG, explored some way out of the way tracks looking for a wave, survived without a scratch when we hit a road excavation going 50mph too.
$5 for a replacement carby, $10 for a harmonic balancer, fan belts still existed in a couple of milk bars on the way to the surf, etc etc - affordable freedom.
100% agree FR It changes the demographic hugely
My old man used to say you can’t eat a house
The insidiously pernicious neoliberal economic dogma has destroyed public housing and allowed real estate agents and property speculators to exploit the situation; nothing more nothing less. The dogma and its destruction of humanity will persist unchecked in the absence of revolution.
Agree... Sad state of affairs...
I'm lucky and am in, but more good fortune and timing than any life skill.
This is true for most cunts, and doesn't stop anyone from fully exploiting every possible advantage. Go ahead and make money off the backs of others but why is it essential to be an absolute profiteering cunt of a pig to your fellow humans and community.
Silly old fucking low skilled workers and trades bought up the coast for a song decades ago. It's not good enough to be average any more.
yep there are a lot more bmw, mercs, and Audi on the sunny coast. no rentals avail, house prices have doubled and a lot more people around...I escaped Bondi in 1988 to live in a slow country coastal town of Maroochydore to surf in warm water, buy cheap ciggies, avo's and mango, smoke a few j's, well that's a distant memory..not many groms at my local, just bloody retired 70yr old mal riders hmmmm
House prices could be a factor in Oz not being as dominant on the Tour these days but similar to Narrabeen maybe the rest of the surfing world just caught up as interest has grown. Oz used to have a massive percentage of the World surfing population but now days it’s a lot more diluted. WA probably has Australia’s best waves and house prices there are a lot more affordable than the East Coast.
It's only a matter of time before Margret river land prices go through the roof
"Markup River" has been overpriced for years
Mark it up Rip Off i nicknamed it
Yeah more people should move to west Aus.. that would piss heaps of those west Aussies off they love the joint a little too much
That's why I'm in favor of climate change
One point that should be made is that while parts of the Northern Beaches were working class areas into maybe the early 70s the majority was well established middle class by the 60s when my family arrived there. In considering the most successful surfers from there between Midget's generation through to Tom Carroll's most were from middle class homes. Of the three mentioned Barton came from Mosman and Tom came from Newport, hardly working class areas. Damien came from North Narrabeen which was also fairly mixed by then. This is not to deny that working class surfers were in the mix nor that some were very successful. The point is that the narrative of surfing as a working class sport tends to be over stated.
Recently I have been thinking about this on the Mornington Peninsula, Finbob will know better than me but I remember in the later 80's early 90's there were individual towns with shops owned by people who lived in or close to the town and young adults could afford to buy close enough to where they grew up, I think this really had changed by the late 90s. Now I don't see my children ever being able to purchase a house any where near where they grew up, maybe with an inheritance...
honest to god, the only answer down here - inheritance...
Southern MP is farked
Yep I started a business in my home town on the MP and purchased a house close by in '95. It was still affordable up until about 2010. People were snapping up homes sub $150k (sub 80 until 95) until about 2000. We sold our family home (built 1952) in Blairgowrie in 2010(???) for $260k. Nothing has been done to it and it would be worth 1.5+. I do love the Ninch but it's a different place now. Full of entitled fuckwits. Lots of crew moved away 10yrs ago to warmer (and colder) waters. Not sure where I would go if I moved.
Hang on ... Chips = $20!!!! Jesus.
The housing crisis is not the story here!!
food budget for rhe day Clif, for 4 boys.
I think, 3 lots of XL chips.
chicken mania
You hang out with them the whole day? Good cunt
Haha we had to get into bmx because like fuck would our dads take us on the skatepark tour.
Similar itinerary but we had to pedal
Therefore more chicken and chips consumed
Byron. Not surprised.
It is what it is, it's happening all over the world not just Australia.
Property is a limited resource especially coastal with every increasing demand prices will always rise, only real way to help would be to release huge amounts of land and keep doing it to the point where there is too much land and not enough buyers.
But i dont think any of us want that.
Obviously there is many other factors too as talked about in housing thread.
"Rarely is supply a problem".
https://theconversation.com/zoning-isnt-to-blame-for-australias-soaring-...
"It is the liberalisation of finance and the treatment of housing as an investment product that got us into this mess. Further liberalisation of planning regulations is unlikely to get us out."
It may not be a problem in the sense there is enough properties (which is completely questionable anyway in many areas), but the supply is still limited and the demand is very high, which pushes up prices
Especially in areas like Byron where supply barely increase's but demand always increases.
If supply far out strips demand prices would not be anywhere near as high as they are, it's basic economics.
If it was entirely tied to supply and demand though, then you have to take in to account that for every sea-changing boomer, there is a house left available for someone else in the city. So why have we not see a corresponding drop in prices in those metro areas that people have been fleeing over the past 18 months?
VEEEERY GOOD POINT
Reverse dust bowl migration?
Tom Joad would go!
From ABS the mean age of regions is quite interesting, where the youngest are following education and the oldest retiring near the coast ...
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population-...
The areas with the youngest median ages contained or were located near higher education campuses, including:
Shortland - Jesmond (26.0) in Newcastle, Wagga Wagga - North (29.0) and Tamworth - West (30.3), which are all within major regional centres
Kensington (26.3 years), which contained the University of NSW, and neighbouring Kingsford (27.0)
The areas with the oldest median ages were regional areas on or near the coast, including:
Tea Gardens - Hawks Nest (63.4 years) near Port Stephens
Tuncurry (61.1) on the mid north coast
Sussex Inlet - Berrara (59.2) on the south coast
Is it possible that young people need to get a degree these days to get most jobs, then they get settled in non-coastal areas where they study, and just never get hooked on surfing?
This is not to say that they could afford to live on the coast even if they wanted, but maybe on the whole they've just written it off as an option.
I am sure that I have paid off at least one person's house by renting near the coast for 30 years. Saving a deposit has always been difficult, to do it whilst renting and when the cheapest 1br unit is coming along to half a million is getting insane.
Things are expensive these days. Surfing is still cheap compared to most things. Chips included.
Surfing is cheap, but gives you considerably more joy than most things.
The cheaper you go the better it gets in my experience.
Dunno about some of that Steve, but as usual a good thought provoking article
Plenty of young chargers in this area. Funnily enough, outside of one or two of them, the 16yr old generation seem to be more interested in charging slabs and big stuff than surfing in comps.
I do feel for those being priced out of their homes and communities though, and covid cannot have helped nor the skyrocketing cost of buying dictating rents need to rise as well. One of my best mates in the Forster region has just copped the ass end of it, and struggled to find another rental. Our population increasing about 12 mil in my life must be a huge factor.
On the one hand I really get the frustration of people and them feeling peeved at those moving in. I personally hate the blow out in units and the new housing estates here, and when the surf is crowded I wish they would all piss off and things went back to what they were 25 years ago.
On the other hand, and touching on the privileged point, I've lived in my neck of the woods next to the beach all my life, and my folks were pretty poor at first. We were lucky in that respect. My dad worked his backside off though, did uni in his 30's part-time and we started to have a little bit of coin when I was mid teens to help us stay here.
Rent wasn't cheap when I moved out at 18, compared to wages, and I chose to live in a shitty joint just to be near the beach rather than move out of the suburb. I then worked my ass off 12-16 hrs a day for years, going to uni at nights, while many of my mates didn't and just cruised. I'm still here because of that and most of my mates are not. After 25 yrs of driving shitty cars, I thought why not and lashed out and bought a nice one. I guess my point is that whilst you might rightfully want them to p/o, I'm not sure it's fair to cast negative aspersions on people buying nice homes in nice areas and driving nice cars. I suspect most of those Tesla and Range drivers in their 40's and 50's worked like I did and earnt them - rather than receiving them through privilege. Many are probably successful small business owners who have gone through the mill and probably deserve to enjoy the spoils.
I also think the point now is going to be that from now on if anyone wants to live on the beach, or in a nice area near the beach, for most they are going to need to work hard, or be lucky that their folks did. I don't think its been much different for a few decades in Sydney, its just now moving out.
Nice post FrazP, where are you located?
Cronulla GF.
Good luck to you Fraz.
no judgement intended, just an observation on the Tesla's and money.
Unfortunately, those people who can pay overs crowd out the local families.
.... great piece as always Steve.
why or how are the aching cool hipster gals of byron immune? (sugar daddy's?)
Onlyfans
(I hope ;) )
The achingly cool hipsters are the kids of the wealthy sea-changers. That's why they're so pervasive - they don't have to work like the locals do.
This issue has so many dimensions to it, and I think the generalisations don't really help anyone understand the vagaries of the coastal demographics or the housing situation.
"Unfortunately, those people who can pay overs crowd out the local families."
I think it's important to acknowledge that the local families come in many shapes and sizes. In this part of the world, there are a bunch of local families who could buy the town's housing supply several times over, such has been their success in the surf industry. At least they could have pre-covid. A lot of others are cashing in their chips and moving to cheaper places with a healthy bank balance to live on. Others are selling and buying back into better houses.
We're kinda local having only been here for 20-odd years - where I'm originally from, which is where I used to be a fully-fledged local, it was 30 years to get your stripes.
We bought our current house by selling our first house and then buying an old knockover which we reno'd (2 kids under 5 in a 10sq house) then upgraded to our current one in a good part of town over 10 years ago before it went berserk. We worked hard, and borrowed a stack of $ to do it. The only people we diddled out of a house were the cashed-up buyers from Melbourne and the investors. We've got decent cars...finally, in our mid-50s, though they're second-hand.
I don't deny our timing was lucky, but I think it's a bit lazy to throw generalisations around about "local" families.
WTF do you mean work hard and earned it. So the person commuting 3 hours each day to clean toilets at the airport is not working hard, yet the middle manager sitting at home answering emails and in online meetings all day is busting their ass.
The point being is the position you end up in is mostly based on luck (opportunity or born with it) and to take the attitude you earned everything your have and let others eat cake is piss poor.
I should add that, there are things like discipline, work ethic and so on which you should be proud of if you used them to reach your goals, but the term i earned it and deserve it is entitled garbage.
Have a think about what you are saying Pato. I am not sure you get what I was saying and why. First, I didn't say anything about deserving it. What I said was some of the people driving nice cars to the beach/able to buy near the beach 'worked like I did and earnt them - rather than receiving them through privilege'.
Also, I wasn't sledging the bloke cleaning toilets. I did the same for several years as a second job. My point was more directed to those who might look down on the people with nice cars and a house on the beach - and to say to them - hey we might have just earnt it.
I don't understand why its poor for me to think its really good that I have worked my ass off and got my self into a position to be able to afford a home on the beach.
'worked like I did and earnt them - rather than receiving them through privilege'
There'd be a thousand theses out there which would do a good job of rendering that statement indefensible.
Really? Go ahead.
I tried to edit but couldn't, its good that your worked hard and achieved goals and that is something worth striving for, its more the term earned it, which I implied as deserved it that I was having a go at.
The thing I've come to realise more as I get older is complacency gets you in the end.. I'm glad that I followed a similar path and worked hard, circumstance bought my parents to the coast and I'm so glad it did, I've watched our town change and up till the virus sweeping through it was an influx of Chinese that started to desecrate our little corner. The Tesla drivers will hopefully keep them at bay for a while. The opportunity is always there it's just a willingness to want it and while I'd rather not see the gentrification happening and the little surf towns remain cheap and affordable if you were around early enough to experience a bit of your own Morning of the Earth count yourself very fortunate.
I'm part of a Chinese family, I'm an Aussie, and I surf. But I don't see how I'm desecrating any little corners of the coast. Nor do I see why you'd want Tesla drivers to keep me at bay. What you're saying sounds like racism to me.
Deep, the comment by Nine that you replied to was more than likely referring to foreign investment in the Australian property market and not Australians of Chinese descent.
It is not racist, it's just facts that foreign entities can buy real-estate in Australia.
North-Americans are the ones we should be looking at before the Chinese if these figures are representative of housing real-estate investment ratios.
https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/can-foreigners-buy-investment-prop...
"Investors from the United States ($19.6 billion) were the biggest buyers of Australian real estate for the second consecutive year, followed by investors from Canada ($13.3 billion), Singapore ($9.8 billion), Hong Kong ($9.3 billion) and China ($6.1 billion)."
Shits fucked. My shotbox house in NZ has gone up in value over 200% since I bought it. 15 years ago. Houses on the beach used to be around a cuply hundy grand. Now you can't touch one for under 2 mill. Wages haven't moved in decades, the only way I can survive is by doing FIFO work out of OZ. Hasn't worked out to well lately I tell ya. Haven't seen the missus and kids for months, surfed about twice in the ocean in 12 months. Slept in my own bed 10 times in the last year. Successive govts in NZ and OZ have screwed the younger generation right royally. Politicians are so far removed from being public servants it's not even funny.
That’s rough, hope your hanging in there.
So where is the money coming from to pay the prices?
- Quantitative Easing (Reserve Bank 'printing money'). NZ$100 over here during Covid.
- Record low interest rates.
- Flexi working. People selling $$$ houses in the city to move to the beach.
*NZ$100billion
Lol is that what Robertson meant when he said the COvid fund was “replenished”
Australians really would be better off with a government like China's which acts on the principle that houses are for living in, not for speculation, and implements policies promoting steady and healthy development of the real estate market, making cities and towns places that all people can enjoy living and working in, wouldn't they.
I'm guessing you're taking the piss here cause that ain't China's RE market.
Thought you might have something to say about that Clif! Nice ideas though eh? :)
Nice comment lucky. Chinese also are expected to have about 30 percent deposit. Government policy can certainly make a difference to increasing house prices. Maybe the coming interest rate rises?
A generational tradgedy fostered by self interested pollies, investors and boomers.
I feel for the coming generations, my kids included. And it's not limited to just the coastal districts
Yeah the boomers stuffed the county, they worked saved their money bought a house or 2 if lucky, didn’t piss their money up the wall travelling around the world on cheap air flights, then rinse and repeat cause they have given up trying, oh and they have a inheritance to leave their kids, rotten arseholes.
Well said.
My mum lived in a garage for a couple of years whilst her dad built their fibro house at the same time as working his mechanic shop during the day. One of first homes in the Wanda area and largely surrounded by sand. Mum worked as a cleaner when I was a kid to put food on table. Often didn't see dad as he was working or at uni. My grand parents and boomer parents clearly destroyed the country the bastards - or perhaps they knew it wasn't right to think it's the job of government or others to provide more than the basics.
House affordability in this area has been tough for 50 years. It's no different now. Just have to do what the boomers did if you want to live here - make sacrifices, work hard and work your way up.
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/breaking-news/multi-millionaire-who-boug...
credit to blackers on the house thread.
My Oldies have done well financially. Yep, they worked there asses off and took a lot of risks to get where they are. You need to reward people for doing that. That`s their choice to go without things to make themselves financially secure in the future (hopefully). Don`t understand people slagging off at people with money who have worked hard and gone without to get where they are.
Hopefully, Oz will always reward people who want to work hard to achieve.
No doubt Ox. I'm not slagging them at all. Your oldies like many of ours have worked their arses off and I wouldn't take that away from them by any means. They have also been incredibly fortunate and lucky in comparison to our current generations looking to own their own home.
your parents even more so cause they happened to buy by the beach.
food for thought If you are lucky to be a homeowner in sydney when the medium house price is over a million bucks in the last 12 months alone you have just seen your asset increase by 20%. thats over $200,000 in 12 months for doing nothing. the average annual wage is what $70k?.
unless your parents are cashed up - doesn't matter how hard a worker you are... you have got buckleys getting in the market, that's the reality.
there is a very serious problem. Most boomers understand this, are deeply concerned about it and what it means for their grandkids and children.
Hey Bonza, I think as troppo points out below that is just not right. I don't think it was any/much easier when I was starting off. I was shitting I'd never be able to stay put. I was shitting that interest rates were 12% and if they went up I was stuffed. I had in my mind that house prices were so high they couldn't possibly go up as no-one could afford them now. I had to have a second job to afford it.
100% Robo, both my parents worked their arses off for what they have, had nothing to start with, Dad even had no choice but to go to Vietnam and saw his mates die.
Touched a raw nerve there did I Robo?
I percieve that it was/is people of the boomer generation that have overseen this mess we are in regarding housing affordability
and did not eat smashed avo on toast!
F@#ken boomers.... Made the most of the uneven playing field dealt to them by the govt.
Invest in stocks and leave housing to house people.....
Yeah that 'government' no doubt - that damn government helping the boomers with - a couple of wars, the recession we had to have, dirt roads, monstrous taxes (0.60c in the dollar in the 80's for $30k and $0.46c for $17k), monstrous interest rates, 10% plus unemployment (30% plus for youngsters), needing to work two jobs, many parents not being able to afford kids to go past yr 9 (when most boomers left school) etc. etc.
Stocks might be decent advice though boogie. I am thinking the property bubble has to burst - although I have been thinking that for 30 years.
Tell yourself whatever helps u sleep at night fraz.... Doesnt change the sad reality that is todays housing crisis and more so.... Tomorrows housing crisis.
All the while boomers get richer. Systems fucked......
How would you handle things if you were in charge Boogie?
Genuinely interested in the solution.
I would have thought that would be pretty obvious - back away from mechanisms which promote housing as a speculative asset/ investment class.
Yeah that damned 'system' must be what's holding you back!
China as an example....? Jump on You tube and do a search for tofu dreg construction and housing. You can enjoy your new house until it collapses on your head and then the government will sweep it under the carpet.
When your'e finished have a look at China's fake food if you really want to cringe at the poisoning going on.
House prices are just driven by money supply. Governments printing more than ever before in history combined with cheap interest rates.
Unfortunately it’s not real gains - just a massive loss in your purchasing power. Still, holding debt is still the best hedge while they keep printing….. pity the best time to buy a house is always last year
Yeah funny forever they were crying poor as soon as Covid hits they are printing truck loads haha.
Guy that works for me was buying a IP years ago, choice was one in Byron for $200k or one in Ballina for $100k, his Mrs wanted the Byron one, he said f that not spending more than 100k lol.
Still owns the Ballina one, moral of the story always listen to the the Mrs haha.
$1.2M plus v $600k or less now.
You’ll barely get a two bed, one bath, ultra basic townhouse for $600 k in Ballina now.
Starting at 800-850 in central Ballina.
Still cheaper than Byron though.
Crazy as that might be, it sounds like a bargain from an NZ perspective.
Isn't NZ the most expensive in the world?
With examples like your neck of the woods, it gives me the horrors imagining how far Australian prices could go.
I saw a done up Victoria era villa (like it was very well done up and quite big but still a fucking villa) in the neighbourhood where I grew up go for 7mil
I mean I think they had put a pool in can’t remember
But 7mil!?!?!? Beverly Hills prices fucks sake
Interesting to note I lived on the blurred border of two suburbs - both expensive now but when I was at school a controversial cartoon was made about the cheaper one haha
Hey Andy, I understand your point, and its a shit sandwich for the coasts that used to be cheap. For me though, the prices you are quoting, well that was the cost in Cronulla 25years ago. Average wages were 1/3 of now and interest 10%, not 2%. I could have moved away from the coast to Heathcote or Helensburgh for 1/4 of the price but chose not to. I am asking this honestly - Is it 1/4 of the price 40 mins inland from Ballina? If so, maybe that has to be the 'in'.
As Troppo points out, the stats don't actually help an argument that its harder now, then it was back then - at least for us in Sydney.
Here's a really interesting site - if you go down near the bottom, there's a graph which shows the cost of servicing a mortgage in Australia: 1970-2020, average monthly mortgage repayments (P+I) in inflation adjusted dollars.
Unless I've missed something which is highly possible, it's 4X more expensive to service a mortgage now than 50 years ago in Sydney, twice as expensive in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, etc etc.
https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/australian-house-prices-over-the-l...
printers measures 3 letters
Don't know bud. Can only comment on experience - so 25 years ago - $600k townhouse x 10% interest is $60k p.a. in just interest. That is 1.75 times the average income at the time. $3mil townhouse now x 2% interest is $60k p.a. in interest or a bit less than the average income now.
Great charts there Andy.
To answer your question, if you go 40 minutes inland and you compare similar quality houses like-for-like, you're looking at paying maybe 2/3 or 3/4 of the price, that's comparing Lismore to central Ballina.
However the bonus is that there are still quite a few original unrenovated houses in Lismore (which are generally prone to serious flood), so as an entry-level buyer that's absolutely the "in", as long as big floods don't go over the floorboards and you can afford the insurance.
Not always the case though, and of course you pay the purchase price accordingly.
Like you say, you have to re-asses your expectations.
Though all the data I've read shows that when you take everything into account, interest rates and the whole shebang, it's a magnitude of order more difficult to service a loan now.
That's not a huge diff. I thought it would be a lot more Andy. You are prob $3mill around here for a nice house and if you are prepared to go 45 mins inland you are talking $1mil (give or take) so its about 1/2 price or less. In saying that its still $1mil. 11mil more people to compete with doesn't help and to me anyway, it seems like there are a lot more people interested in the beach then there was when I was a kid. Syd is getting overcrowded, and if people want the coast they have to move away - do you buy something ordinary out west in Syd for just over $1mil or do you take that $1 mil to Ballina and live is a sweet home and town- which I think is partly why you guys are copping the price explosions. I've got 3 kids, one adult and two late teens so I am not unsympathetic to housing costs.
Only 600K? What is it, a granny flat? He must've bought a real lemon.
600K is an empty plot in Cumbalum these days. (up from $300K 2 years ago). Almost anything with a livable house on it is pushing $800K.
Well, the Troopy has certainly gone up in value.
Hahaha, probably could sell if for new price now :)
I have one, half an engine but runs like new, $100K (BB price), has nice mural
Calling BS on this one!!!
Classic story of old dudes whinging about "back when I was a Boy..."
Here's the facts:
Average house price 1990 $185k 2021 $680k
Interest 1990 17% 2021 2.5%
Average repayment on above: 1990 $31500 2021 $17000
Average income 1990: 27,000 2021 $100,000
Summary is in the 1990's, property was not even affordable to the average Joe. Now it is. You just need to have half an act, and have your sh#t together!
I graduated from uni in 1991, and got a starting salary of $30,000. People graduating now are on more than double that, maybe triple.
It all works of affordability, and now is no less affordable than it ever was. Maybe much more affordable, hence the buy up causing the price lift.
Maybe for the freeloaders who want to travel the country in vans and live off centrelink, this isn't attractive.... Good! go get a job.
But this current property boom has happened with the immigration border closed, so when aussies overseas start coming home next year, it might get interesting.
Saw an interesting stat last week that one in seven buyers is an aussie overseas. Waiting to come home.
Those numbers don't look right. Sources?
Probably City/Metro prices. He would know though, he went to Uni.
Regarding the current average wage: He's taken the average wage for full-time workers only, not including part-timers - whose % has grown markedly with industrial changes - or contractors, and his figure appears to be from last year when many lost their jobs which skewed the number upwards.
The more accurate figure, including part-timers, is about $67K.
Gee Stu, we can skew figures all day. Do we add back when there were a lot more single income homes and add in all th $0 to the average. PT is a lot to do with peoples wishes around family or other responsibilities, not around bosses dictating.
Guess you could if you wanted to give a false impression.
I wasn't having a shot, just don't know what gives the best real impression though Stu. I am not sure that figure you mentioned works as a comparison as there are lot of variables at play. Maybe Average Family Household income which now seems to be around $160k p.a. Median household income (families and non families) is about $116k (figures courtesy Dr Google). I suspect the single income homes back in the boomers day would mean they were less.
I mean some of the guys are just looking at $price to purchase home v income - but that fails to take into account the difference in interest rates. It might be better to look at $repayments per month compared to income.
Not to mention the fact that those are average figures across the whole population - an average figure that is driven upwards by wealthy older Australian's who are now raking in a largely passive income from their property investments.
Plenty of starting wages for full times jobs (even tertiary educated) are still around $45-50K. I know a couple of people my age (early 30's) earning over $100K but the number has probably gone down since the mining crash.
Well said Troppo. Went teaching in the late 70’s to wherever the Education Dept posted you. Being a single male I was posted to Blacktown for 3 years. Most teaching grads now wont leave their LGA for casual work, refuse to go country and complain about their Uni debt.
19% interest rates on a $50 000 home loan in the early 80’s earning $12 000 per year
There was also significant wage growth in line with higher interest rates. So year on year your repayments became much easier.
Very simplistic troppo. Whilst the peak interest rate in 1990 was around 17% (and historically quite high before that) it was back down to around 6-7% within 2 years, then hovered round that figure 6-8% until the GFC in 2008 then rapidly dropped to the low levels we have now. You need to look at the total cost of servicing the loan across its life versus the actual appreciation (or in very rare instances depreciation) of the asset that the loan has purchased in this case a home in that same time frame and I think most people would agree that anyone (inlcuding myself) whom purchased property in the 80s and 90s got extremely good value for money and excellent returns for the investment. Ill need to crunch the numbers but I dont think we can really say that for people whom will be stepping into the property market now for the first time.
Those figures are so wrong its not funny!
Heard a good stat once - "something" like the cost to keep a roof over your head (rent or mortgage) is normally between something like 45-60% of disposable income. Once it hits 60% prices or rent drop. The % cycle follows the property boom cycle.
I think at 60% things kick in to lower as its not sustainable - movement/migration, construction/supply etc
Seems like we are at 60%....
Fuck your rubbery and just plain wrong figures. I call BS on your post.
From a quick google -
Median AU house price now is $995,000, (units are $650K but you are comparing against $185K HOUSE median in 1990).
Even for a unit - 2.5% on $650K for 25 years is $35,400/year, where did you get $17K from?
17% interest rate peak in 1988 but dropped rapidly to 6% by 1991
More relevant is median house price to median wage, $28K in 1990 vs $60K now, so wages double, house prices x5.
So, BS on it being more affordable now. And what about when interest rates go up again? People on median wages borrowing $1M+ will be screwed
Gidday Scroty,
no need for the agro mate.
The figures aren't wrong. It's probably naive to think good old Google gives the correct info every time. Worth digging a bit deeper.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the average wage in 1991 was $25428.
https://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/free.nsf/0/FAE37DAF57F82D9DCA25...$File/63020_AUG1991.pdf
Average wage in 2021 is $90324.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-work-hours/average...
The average house price you indicate above is for all capital cities. It doesnt take regional into account. The correct average house price is $835,700.
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/residential-property-...'s,rose%20by%20%2452%2C600%20to%20%24835%2C700.
Interest rate history is here:
https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/historical-data.html.
Agree, many people will be in trouble if and when interest rates go up - which they have too sooner or later.
All I was trying to say is it's not any harder making a go of things now than it ever was. We all at some point had to knuckle down, make some sacrifices, work hard and commit.
As for the van life crew - all power to them. May they get many uncrowded waves, and may they be respectful to the locals and the environment.
Hey Scroty, I do understand people are frustrated.
Just from personal knowledge interest rates were not 6% in 1991, they are documented (google search I did) at 12%. I took a loan in 1993 and fixed in at 10%, so I know. My strong personal recollection also is we hit about 6-7% interest 2003ish (and doctor google suggests they ranged between 6.5% and 8% 2000-20005)
If you just do the math - $600k townhouse back even in 2003 (which would be a pretty shitty joint here even back then) x 6% interest is $36k p.a. in just interest. That is about 0.75 times the average income at the time ($50k from google). $1.8 mil would buy that townhouse now x 2% interest is $36k p.a. in interest which is about 0.4 times the average income now ($90k).
So the actual re-payment cost on interest only is far less as a percentage of income now. You just might be paying it off for a bit longer. You would need to back on getting pay rises etc. You are very correct about what happens if interest rates go up though. Scary stuff. It could be carnage, a bit like back in the 90's when the boomers were getting smashed and many had to have two jobs to put food on the table.
Hope you are getting some waves.
Calling bs on these made up figures!!!!
Your source????
Aunty beryls dementia based memories dont count....
This is the perfect example of using certain statistics for confirmation bias lol.
Um, my own mtge documents. I mean it really is odd the way a few of you, and it's just a few, just attack, deny and falsify like you just have this need to whinge, find fault in others and blame others instead of accepting responsibility and doing your best to be good and achieve what you desire.
Sugar, the messages we got as kids was warm bed, a full tummy and folks that loved you was the gold.
We are one of the luckiest countries in the world with opportunities most others don't have, yet it's somehow the 'government', boomers, people who worked hard and others holding you back. Yeah right.
The geographical triangle between Ballina, New Brighton, and Lismore (including Byron) currently has 154 available rentals.
So there's no "SUPPLY" problem. Brought this up years ago in the poltico thread. Got howled at by you steve. Funny how times change.
https://www.realestate.com.au/rent/in-byron+bay,+nsw+2481%3b+ballina+-+g...
Just had a look SD, you are spot on! Rentals keep pace with the market in real time, so what's offered is a reflection of the current market, and there are 154 properties available!
It's just that rental prices are more than when we were grommets!!
Not rocket science.
People earn more, people can afford more.
Simple.
Land prices have doubled in goonollabah in 5 months.
Not all the van lyfers
are Aussies that can't afford to rent, many of them are driving 80k troopys with all the fruit and what about the rich South American and euro kids , not exactly homeless just on a extended holiday on papas money, surfing and potentially working many totally clueless , carpark camping , shitting everywhere , fires in summer , cunts in the surf , but hey looking cool on the Instagram
Northwest had a horror winter of them and now upon southwest as the weather / surf changes
Local shire does fuck all regulation , easier to hassle locals that own dogs or have a bushy firebreak than the illegal camping issues
Coming to a beach near you ...
Local shire doing fuck all about the illegal camping issues.
Are you annoyed by wrong behaviour (rubbish and so on) or the actual illegal camping?
Nothing wrong IMO with illegal but respectful camping, but happy to hear other opinions,
I been living in my van for 10 years
I have had one parking infringement at Tuncurry,was happy to pay it, I don't get hassled by rangers,I don't park in stupid stops(in front of people's houses etc)
Whenever I pull up to park I will clean up any rubbish
Couple of thoughts on this one;
Housing situation is fucked. Not sure how anyone gets in without mum and dad’s money to help. Not sure how this is ever resolved now.
The local rippers, they still exist but is a QS warrior or even higher still a path anymore? Tour seems unstable, sponsors dumping surfers all over the place, the QS or is it the Challenger series is hard to understand.
The lack of mid-20’s surfers, the next gen of spawn living at the beach is developing. There are plenty of groms all though out Sydney.
Skating, far more inclusive and easier to learn. No wanker longboarders taking every drop in, every skate park half pipe and bowl tends to have elders that share the ramps and take equal turns with the groms.
The mobile generation- yeah, I’m in. I prefer to live in my car than in my home. Simple, cosy, quickly cleaned and often a good view. With Queensland climate and Australia amazing public amenities I cannot think of any house that would be better than my wagon.
Yep, I'm in too.
Not working half the week to pay rent in a shitbox with junkie neighbours.
Put some AT tyres, battery/fridge/basics (shovel to bury shit!!!!) on a Scoobaru and now I dive and surf and work, instead of working to rent.
Similar situation down here on the Surf Coast. Lots of obviously well off people paying big money for property. Average workers (especially in hospitality) have very little hope of buying or renting. Van life not much fun down here in the cooler months either. Surely negative gearing must have a significant effect on pushing up prices. It is madness the taxpayer subsidizing investors to buy more houses, while first home buyers struggle to get a foot in. There's nothing wrong with having an investment property, but not subsidized by the government. I know there are other factors. The impossible dream for most young people now.
“ Surely negative gearing must have a significant effect on pushing up prices. It is madness the taxpayer subsidizing investors”
I also struggle to understand what is the benefit of this policy for the country? Taxing actual labour itself more than investment seem madness to me.
I wonder how much of this is self subsidy from the people in power with no regards to adverse consequences for the country?
Negative gearing hardly plays a part in these scenarios with interest rates as low as they are. Good luck finding a house that isn't positively geared
Locally negative gearing has established a pool of holiday rental properties as well as some that are only used a few weeks in the year by their owners. This creates some price pressure but probably has a greater effect on rents. It is hard to accept a housing policy that forces low paid workers to live in vans while probably 25% of the housing stock is unoccupied out of holiday periods.
In WA maybe, but in Melbourne and Sydney the difference between rent and mortgage is huge.
Negative gearing was a reactionary policy to high interest rates back in the day. It was pushed into law about the time when the issue was already resolving itself. When enough wealth has been transferred to the boomers in power and rent prices start stabilise to a useful level regarding salaries, maybe they will finally start looking for the next reactionary policy (that sounded a bit pessimistic....)
It's a bit like gas exploration on the east coast, that would have been useful 15-20yrs ago when gas export prices started going bananas. But now solar and storage prices are heading to the bottom, our government will wait until it's over to capitalise.
Lucky cuntry indeed
Toilet paper , shit, toothpaste spit , doing the dishes or laundry in the toilets at the beach ,sleeping in and then parking up in the best spot at the beach carparks all day , parking up with groups and taking over beach carparks and or parks and again being hassling arseholes in the surf.
There is illegal camping and there is just not giving a fuck about where you are camping and the other people who live there and or use that space
Be clean , be low key , show some respect for the local crew and might be cool but It's wearing thin at the moment , going to be a long summer
Yep, Campbell, agree than being low key is important when i stay for free in a place where others paid tax to build the local amenities I’m enjoying. . Picking up the occasional rubbish on the beach does not hurt either.
Fully agree! I'm sorry for the brazen(ilen) wankers that give the rest of us a bad name.
First rule of sneaky beach carpark camping: You do not tell anyone about sneaky beach carpark!
Second rule of sneaky beach carpark camping: You do not tell anyone about sneaky beach carpark!
Third rule of sneaky beach carpark camping: If a local says stop, you stop!
Fourth rule of sneaky beach carpark camping: Never more than 2 days.
Fifth rule of sneaky beach carpark camping: Avoid weekends and holidays unless it's absolutely pumping!
Sixth rule of sneaky beach carpark camping: No shirt and no shoes!
I worked for DPAW in Margaret River for years a few years back.... and I agree with everything you just said... ugghh toothpaste spit... what a trigger!!!! Literally shitting 2 metres from their cars, shit ticket blowing in the wind, uncovered steamers everywhere... oh and a toilet 100 metres away - but oh so hard to waddle that far... There was a spot they'd all congregate and on one trip through the bush in my guvvy vehicle there was a pile of trash at least a metre high... Absolute disrespect and disregard for anyone but themselves... Taking every park at redgate beach... every day.... rubbish just chucked and piled up in the drop toilets - either on the floor or in the toilet itself... and abuse if you asked them to clean up after themselves... 99% international crew not aussies... I used to have fun blasting my whipper snipper or roaring my chainsaw all around their vehicles first thing in the mornings - although once i whipper snipped a fresh steamer all over my legs and boots...let's say i wasn't so polite that day.
I'm in Torkool now and winter isn't so bad here - but the balmy ish summer temps are coming - so i guess it'll escalate here soon too...
oh that toothpaste spit - why is it so triggering???!!!!
https://lovelorne.com.au/adopt-a-worker/?fbclid=IwAR33O2cVepnP2ftzX0WJX5...
It's probably still available to you but with compromise.
Places like Geraldton or Streaky Bay still seem affordable by today's standards with surf.
Just not going to have the nice things that come with East Coast surfing.
Beautiful sub tropical locations, close to other places,farmers markets,backpackers,existing surf industry, alternative culture and cities.
But didn't this happen to the original hippies from Byron years ago? Didn't they go inland years ago for the same reasons due to the current people their that are now the people not liking the changes?
I think owning a property has been very well marketed in Australia that your some sort of failure if you don't own one
Sure, it's great to have your own house and security but places like Germany tend not to follow our way of thinking and mainly rent?
Probably invest their money other ways with higher return.
People bag the boomers but a lot struggled to get a property too and where paying a lot higher interest rates than today when their average was closer to 10%.
The total cost to pay off that house in the 20-30 years with interest is huge.
In Germany (and a few other European Countries) if you buy and sell a house within 10 years, you pay massive tax on any profit. Removing the financial incentive for quick turn around of houses for an 'inflated' market price.
6% Stamp Duty is not to be sneezed at. And that's not off the capital gains, but off the full value (correct me if I'm wrong).
I think the really scary thing is people having recently bought expensive property at record low interest rate, only to see that potentially skyrocket as the Covid-era money printing sparks big inflation. Also, building your own home (own two hands and a mate who's a builder) is tricky at the moment due to the cost and scarcity of building materials.
Otherwise, I think home ownership can still be done, but it does involve hard work and sacrifice and balls.
It's all relative then til now.
The one thing that hasn't kept up is people wages.
Last 10 years people have got fuck all in most cases. Yet the big companies are still killing it.
Oil and gas is great example. Some of the new Enterprise Agreements are as low as $38/ hour for working away in a shit hole going past half of what wages where 10 years ago.
You can get more working in the city in an average job.
And yet the companies are still killing it.Add in freedom of movement with international workers coming into Australia and watch wages further deteriorate as they are prepared to work for less compared to the shit holes they have come from.
Too many registered voters with a vested interest in negative gearing. My idea would be normal levels of tax for any property on top of your principle dwelling. And tax the church. And make sure the Reinharts of the world are actually paying more tax than me.
Wait, are there unregistered voters? I got a call from the federal voting office to put me back onto it 2 weeks after they approved my unemployment, after the rona first stopped outgoing flights..... I'd got out of it the first time when I learned they'd cancelled my aus drivers license for unpaid fines when I'd been fucking around Europe for 3yrs! I'm pissed off that we're the only country with enforced voting outside of North Korea, and I have to waste my time throwing a dummy vote for a party that will give its 'preference' to one of the big two assholes
Aaaand then what happens when you hit 60 and your still renting?
Your fucked.
Unless you have invested wisely
Until you need to into a nursing home, it will be free.
I guess this might explain the tsunami of adult learners round here. Hardly any groms.
In regards to the concept of Byron being a depressed rural backwater in the 60's, well this is something to think about. There probably still are affordable coastal communities in Australia, particularly in the far north and west of the country. Similar to Byron in the 60's, they are economically depressed, isolated areas. Go there if you want a cheap house I'd say. The only thing is it's hard to guarantee you'll get a job or decent surf.
Same in NZ. You could move to Patea, which has half decent waves and is not that far from good waves. The place is cheap as chips. Work from home online and you'll be in.
Great article
Over 20 years ago l had a crack to by land
Admittedly prices tops just over 100 k in most places from ballina to geralton and sw to margies. At that time one rule no more than 20 kms from a wave. Finally settled here 20 kms west of Yamba . Didn’t pay much and these days the same block is worth a lot more but back then there was no work. Then that was ok l was surfing travelling and working out of a van. The van wasn’t a troopy worth 70 k ( more than a block of land back then ) but a large one so travelling was reasonable comfortable. Admittedly saved heaps for a couple years and lucked into so lucrative construction jobs ( glad l took on a real job as a 17 year old ) get it ?. Anyway Yamba was the sticks and now it isn’t. That has been going on for ever( would be good advise to broaden your search ) Hey never give up on a coast life. Just give up on a caffe latte and settle for a remote bay ( king island 40 hectares for 400 k )
Anyone with more than one home is accountable for this problem, In my small coastal town in 2021 school teachers, nurses and essential workers struggle to afford anything beyond a basic roof over their head while the local realestate agent show boats around town in his new $250k European car to express how successful they are. Anyone investing in coastal realestate that doesn't plan to live and contribute to a local community should be well aware of the stress they place on that community.
Apparently the answer to the housing crisis is too flatten a huge section of rainforest and turn it into more urban sprawl destroying the natural beauty of the place. The irony of it all is the new suburb is being snapped up by the same investors that caused the problem in the first place.
The humble person is being forced from their communities by the greed of the wealthy. But thats progress right? WTF
It's not progress, merely a fact of life. If you are a boomer or even a little younger and not wealthy by now you were lazy or an idiot.
What an ugly display of amorality.
@jack sprat.
The perfect (and sad)quote to put on the epitaph of the great australian dream.
Pure greed from boomers has destroyed it..... Invest in stocks and leave housing to house people.
Surf Nerd where? You realize a dual income school teacher household is likely on >>200k* a year with any experience.
*My household was on ~215k last year with two teachers in QLD.
https://www.qtu.asn.au/salariesCA2019
Enjoyed the piece Freeride. The connecting element is etiquette - this new, often late-starting surfers didn't have it drilled into them as grommets the idea of waiting your turn, respecting the local, established pack, paddling well wide on the way back out. I actually don't think its purposeful, more driven out of ignorance - of simply being late to the game...
If you grew up in isolated surf spots and had plenty of waves, this pack mentality is quite foreign.
Only really for couped up people that don't know any better
Don't tend to hear of it from 60s/70s surfers.
Just some BS created from 80s/90s surfers that though they where special and entitled.
And hanger on old "legends" trying to stay relevant
Probably the same attitudes that have stifuled up and coming "surf stars".
They now have choices now. I won't put it with a lot of the shit, just become a skater with freedom of movement and without relying on conditions.
Or BMX, snowboarding motorX etc.
Same sort of Buzz without the pyramid scheme.
The Reserve Bank only has to push the home loan interest rates up around 2% (basically double what they are now) and the lifestyles of many would crumble in an instant. The whole housing market will do a complete 180 overnight.
BMW's, Merc's, Audi's - most, if not all are leased and when payments can't be made these flogs will be back driving their pov-pack Commodores. Many people are living way beyond their means thanks to cheap money.
*Emperor voice* "Do it!"
If you charted the intensity of the housing crisis in Hobart/the rise in people sleeping in cars or under the bushes, against the number of black BMW 4wds on city streets, it would be one line curving straight up over the last few years. I won't be sad when their greed-driven smugfest ends for them and they have to come back down to earth and acknowledge they're part of a community and not a marketplace.
Good article and a conversation that needs to be had.
The divide between rich and poor now the young and old.
The reserve banks used interest rates to attempt to manage costs if living/ inflation but that there is less room now and into the future.
The money being printed mainly goes into asset prices which are pumping the boomers bags but adding a tax to our dollar and savings.
No fault of the average boomer just a system built by those feathering their own nest.
We need younger representatives in government and not the dinosaurs that are looking after retirement.
Its interesting to see the price of gold not moving as much. Could this be because the boomers are holding it and the young are not interested.
The young are buying bitcoin/ ethereum/ dogecoin etc and that is there chance to get ahead, its working for many.
Shows the power of working hard, saving and making good decisions with your money. Generation after generation. Population in Australia is set to increase and so to the demand on housing.
I hear there giving away land in western QLD..
How does a single mum with 2 kids go? Working as a school teacher educating the communities next generation. Works hard and brings home $1400 p/w. Rent is $890 p/w for a bear bones home that pays some investors mortgage off. Needs child care to be able to work. Should we tell her to work harder? or leave her only friends and move to western Queensland where there is no work and its a cool 42 degrees in the shade?
and the nsw goverment want to inject 2 million immigrants here , build oil rigs in our ocean here . the foot is flat down on the accelerator to a shit storm . ive allways rented im 53 and surfed all my fucking life , lucky i was born with a surfing famley ect , could write a book on my adventures up and down the east coast . the change i see is fucking mad , i allways knew this would happen one day . tell you the truth i dont give a fuck anymore . just dont shit on the walking paths go deep into the bush you cunts , take ya rabbish with ya to . . eat the rich and die yuppie scum . i had that as a sticker on my old holden once .
and to all you fucking low life rich grubs who have blowen in to all the coastel towns along the coast of our grate land . i have this to say you dirty fucking coffie sipping wankers . who fucking dob in poor cunts sleeping in there vans and liveing the gypsy life , rott in ya glass boxs on the hill you , i dont have a life turds . we know who you are cunts . you can never blend in no matter what with our tribe , your time is comeing fast fuckheads .
This is the funniest thing I have read in a long time. They don't care about you. You are a stain on their road.
Love the rant!!!!!!!
Classic.
Eat the rich.......
lol , cheers , i like to just right of a bit . i grew up with rodney rude
one more thing , whats with all the fucking adds poping up i cant even see the swellnet page , and half of it is realastate , sell your property faster . fuck off pricks . money is evil fucks up everthing hay .
Pay just a few bucks a month and you'll never see another ad here again.
See, sometimes money is good.
Like I said, no free rides.
Another good article Freeride. Personally I’m not too worried about Australia’s surfing prowess. I think the bigger issues are the housing costs, changes in demographic but also something you didn’t really touch on and that is the associated development.
The developers are making serious coin with this increase in land and house values and the rate of development is ridiculous. New subdivisions, “over 50 villages”, multi-storey unit blocks on the North Coast are going nuts and with it is the associated clearing of rural blocks including areas of coastal bush.
Have a look at South West Rocks, used to be a fishing village with tree lined road on the way in. Place has been clear felled and there will be undulating hills of lovely colour bond roofing going up in the next couple years. While the Country Club wants to make the place a mini Gold Coast . Seven stories FFS!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/tourist-town-south-west-rocks-div...
This isn't really surprising when any new development in a coastal town for anything above low density housing (i.e. townhouses or god forbid, high rises) is met with furious opposition by the locals.
The lack of new stock means that the existing stock multiplies in value year after year and the next generation are simply priced out of the area.
Development, and more specifically higher density development, isn't always a bad thing. The alterative is usually to go and clear some koala habitat to build cheap low density housing miles away from any services.
Smorto, I’d agree that higher density development is better in established towns, but the market is still keen for low density housing so there is plenty of koala habitat being knocked down.
You're 100% right Distracted as there will always be a demand for low density housing so there's always going to be land clearing.
My comment was more trying to point out that the constant opposition to high density development within established urban areas of coastal towns not only shuts out the next generation (who are often quote happy to live in a small townhouse or apartment in a central location) but also results in a worse outcome for the environment as these people are forced to move into newly created estates that are poorly located and often former koala habitat.
I grew up in Woonona and before the 90's the Woonona Beach area was 90% Housing Commission.
Then the rich moved inn
Look if a stripper in the USA can finance 5 houses then I reckon most of us are in the wrong profession!!!
On a serious note though homelessness is one of those issues most of us don't register on our daily life radar unless we see someone sleeping rough and think about it for all of 5 minutes.
But here's the thing - every rental property being scooped up by cashed up "investors" in a lot of instances means the tenants are now looking for somewhere else to live. Every landlord hiking up the rent means the tenants go without or are now looking for somewhere cheaper to live. All in a real estate market that doesn't afford them a suitable outcome. Just think how quickly these problems turn to homelessness. Then multiply that by however many times a day that is probably happening at the moment.
It's hard not to be pessimistic about this but it's going to be a huge problem very soon.
What is best = competing with grommets or old guys on mals boys?
I mean, I am aging and am starting to struggle when there are more than a handful of groms who can paddle like mad for hours. Worse, I was scared of the old guys when I was a grom and taught to be humble. If you weren't, then it was enforced on you. If you were, you were looked after. These days a good proportion of them think they own the place and are rude as all f*
The old guys on mals tend to sit around and don't take many. They get in the way a bit.
I tend to be able to pick off more with the mals than the groms.
Not sure what to wish for (outside of the current directions for massive housing increases in the area to stop).
I’ve found that almost all of the sea changers have sold up from the big smoke for early retirement at around 60 years old. Not many of them are interested when the waves get over 3-4feet.
100% as soon as a the beachies get head high there's so few out. Same story for the retirees as it is for the younger VAL's.
Well not all of us. I've been scoring well overhead stuff at my local with just a couple of others for the last few weeks, but yeh a lot of the crew my age like a channel to paddle out in and a low probability of copping one on the head. I'm a masochist, I love a hard paddle!
The cost of coastal housing in this day and age has crippled the development of Australia's potential competitive surfers?
Ummmm..........so what?
I quite like it when another non surfing or rank beginner middle aged couple move into my area. Not gunna impact negatively on my wave count.
Re house prices: Simple maths shows that when interest rates were higher years ago you still only had to borrow about 3 times the average wage to buy a decent joint near the surf. Now that it's become 10 to 15 times the average wage to buy the same joint I reckon interest rates are almost irrelevant
........until they start going up.
Parasites. And by the way, there are plenty of places to live, just not on the coast.
Big Short is a good movie.
Worse thing is the rich City F*%$ers are now buying up in all the little coastal villages along my stretch and forcing born and bred locals out of the area and forcing property sale and rental prices up. I got in at the right time to buy a house and yes its gone up, but im not selling so no good to me. Piss off back to Sydney and Melbourne.
Ah the settler mentality!
We were here first so youse can all get fucked.......except that as we live in a free country, we can live anywhere we choose. Not sure where these people hang out because since moving here I have encountered nothing but friendly people in the surf. Long term locals, recent arrivals, people on holiday...no drama.
There are problems locally with housing availability but that has more to do with poor government planning and lack of public housing than people moving here.
I'm just bitter and not rich and happy to admit it. Ill be honest, the City Folk aren't that bad here, but they have damn well forced property and rent prices up, I can assure you.
There's another side to the coin regarding poor planning and lack of housing. The Coffs Harbour area where I reside has recently (10 years) seen plenty of growth and subdivisions, this planning has also destroyed Kms of Coastal vegetation and every beachside suburb is almost joined at the hip.
Telling you now they aren't the Originals buying up....I Stand by my comment...Piss off back to Sydney and Melbourne.
And of course i see the irony and all of the above comments in relation to the "Early" Settler mentality you mention.
And why do you think people leave Sydney? If the NB was still the same as it was 20-30 years ago I would probably have stayed. No use looking back.
And what do you think has changed in Sydney to make it so unliveable that you were forced to move away?
Go on…say it. Free your mind. The truth will set you free.
I searched for a metaphor for what has changed, you can thank me later:
Imagine if you got a cramp.
The horror...
Or needed to fart...
I reckon you could have squeezed in to get em over the line for the record VJ.
I'm certainly qualified to do so Ringy, I was at the top of the phone booth in the orange part when we fit 15 people into a Thomson's Bay Telstra booth to take the record back in '93. But I maintain it's a sport for the young, and look forward to seeing it in the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.
Immigration? Well it boosted the population but the problem we had was that most of the NB's share of the necessary development was put in Dee Why. It was zoned wall to wall 6 storey on Pittwster Rd from the RSL to Stoney Range. Then there were the two 16 storey towers and numerous other developments. From my perspective it was the surrounding nimby culture that fucked up the area I lived in way more than immigration.
.
Democracy - its a terrible thing.
Easy. Development under the thought that more housing will allow generations to stay but it has just turned nice places into grade A circuses in and out of the water.
As they Say.......Progress.... If only we could go back haha
When you say progress what do you mean exactly? Has technology made Sydney unliveable? What do think has changed in the last 20 years?
I hate the word progress....especially the saying "cant stop progress" but this sounds like a test.
No idea about Sydney, I hate the place so wouldn't have a clue.
Ill list my thoughts....
Foreign Investors/developers?
Too much baby making?
Lack of a human Cull?
I cant say much more without being condemned a racist.
back to 1985 perhaps?
"Manhattanisation is coming"
prescient
Ha! I've always sung it - Manhattan Island Station is coming!
Really, try moving to SA or WA now lol
Happening even in Syd John. Cronulla was a bit of a large country town type vibe and in the last 5-10 years in particular it has been turned into a circus by both new development (over development) and just the extra volume of people travelling in 7 days a week now. The born and bred Cronulla people are looking further afield for what they used to have. Sure it is the same story elsewhere. I don't think its getting better for either of us mate.
Happening even in Syd John. Cronulla was a bit of a large country town type vibe and in the last 5-10 years in particular it has been turned into a circus by both new development (over development) and just the extra volume of people travelling in 7 days a week now. The born and bred Cronulla people are looking further afield for what they used to have. Sure it is the same story elsewhere. I don't think its getting better for either of us mate.
"achingly cool hipster gals" - made me laugh!
Investing in Housing is not very productive either. Like kicking the can down the road.
Australia needs to be manufacturing instead of inflating non productive industries like housing
Spot on here. Need to wind back the tax concessions a bit so its less attractive for everyone to tie all their cash up in houses.
Some prime residential development land in Port Macquarie, AKA premium koala habitat is currently up for grabs.. Summary of the site and petition below
https://www.change.org/p/matt-kean-protect-critical-koala-habitat-in-por...
When I was young I went halves with my my mum to buy a house because we lived in a caravan.
I had 1 surfboard for all conditions.
Now everyone drives around with a van load of boards for each condition.
And their parents have sold their houses to live in caravans.
Probably a nice new VW van, carrying a nice new $1300 iphone, a short board or two, a step up, a mid length, a fish and a mal with no leg rope (but can't afford a home).
What happened to the toyota corona wagon with 300,000 on the clock and you needed to turn the a/c off going up any sort of hill.
After writing this, gee I wouldn't mind joining them - a good van to crash in, a few sticks, a few quite beachies off the beaten track sounds damn good.
Australia, as much i hate the idea....Needs a new City.
We've certainly had the growth to populate one.
In terms of concerns about Australia’s ability to produce successful professional competitors, a bit of historical perspective helps. At the time Australia was dominating professional competition the surfers came from a small number of locations. Sydney, particularly the northern beaches, the Gold Coast, Newcastle and Wollongong. The two big factors in causing that talent to emerge were the concentration of teenage and twenty year olds in the water and the fiercely competitive atmosphere at the major breaks.
People who were not there in the thick of it often fail to understand just how intense and dog eat dog the atmosphere in the water could be. Yeh there were relaxed days at some spots but good days at the better spots it was no quarter asked or given. It was usually good natured but the idea of sharing the waves around did not exist. Even before any of us pulled on a t-shirt, we were competitors. We had to be to get a decent wave.
Over time, with crowds and more maturity, that changed at roughly the same rate as the percentage of Australian surfers in the top 20 declined. Those places, such as the Gold Coast, where the breaks enabled the better surfers to dominate without aggression continued to produce successful professionals, but it became much harder for most young surfers to achieve. They lacked access to the waves and that intensely competitive atmosphere.
The reality is that the same trend will continue so if there is a genuine desire to remain competitive at the elite level an entirely new approach is needed based on early talent identification and maximising the opportunities for those identified. Many sports identify talent before it is even involved in the sport. They go around schools measuring the physical attributes of kids looking for the proven formula as determined by sport science studies. They then introduce them to the sport and try to maximise their training and development opportunities.
I really don’t have a view on this. It is not something that interests me, but I know some people who are absolutely passionate about it. The problem at the moment seems to be lack of sufficient funding to put in place the kind of program necessary to consistently produce great surfers. The boom years of the surf clothing industry are behind them and while they might continue to do OK I can’t see them stepping up to that level of funding. Government support for minor sports is limited, which leaves some kind of privately funded academy, with all the issues that would raise. First world problem?
With all the anti vaxers nutters in that part of the woods.
Should be a lot falling off the perch soon making more house become avaiable...
What a dipshit of a comment.
There area does have a reputation of them
So does Melbourne if you watch the main stream media, there’s a difference between anti vaxers and those that just don’t want to put that shit in their bodies, or follow stupid rules made up by politicians that are losing nothing and don’t have to be vaxed to keep their jobs. Meanwhile the general public are, business losing everything.
Wake up.
I did wake up.
Got the double dose. Pretty simple and easy really.
Don't know what the big deal is.
You should be thankful you live in a country that provides a vaccine for free. In many poor countries people have to pay for it which is totally unaffordable
Guess You will find out down the track
Jeez, I was thinking a similar thing.
Or at least that they wouldn’t be allowed to travel and the surf at my local would be less crowded.
I looked through my emails when I was looking to buy in Coolum in 2012. House was 500k, wage at the time was 90k. That same house today is worth 1.1 million and my wage is 100k.
I don't know how people in their 20's are meant to do it? I'm also in Caloundra on holiday atm and I've never seen so many old people (and dogs(!)) in one area; where the fuck is the youth outside the kids that drive to the skatepark/nippers. Not to mention the old people's fucking entitled attitude about everything. It's getting depressing to even just witness, The trend is clear and it's not cool, we should be empowering our youth, not fucking them over every which way!
This is not a personal whinge, I got a little slice of wealth from liquidating my assets and at this stage, I'm on a one-way ticket out of here for a few years at least. There's thousands of k's of cheap arse coastline with great surf where I'm going and I can't fucking wait! Although it does suck a little bit because I feel like I've done everything by the book. Worked hard, saved every cent for years, invested, went to fucking war for my country and in return I can't afford a bare-bones lifestyle anywhere on the east coast.
Another really good article FR and I like how you have your ear close to the ground with skating as well; your experience mirrors mine. Out in the surf up here on the Sunshine Coast. I'm usually the only one riding a shortboard with a couple of kids out, the rest are grumpy old men/chicks on mals (sometimes out of control, always with one fin, anymore and you're not cool). The skatepark? Full of kids at all times, really fucking ripping as well. I think you nailed it in your other article when you talked about the kids looking for a hero. Are they going to choose teenage gold medalist Keegan Palmer who fucking sends it? Or old man Owen Wright with his bronze medal? I think the results are in personally.
One thing that I kinda disagree with, from a global perspective surfing has always been a sport for the wealthy. It's either expensive to live near the ocean or your family is too poor to afford a surfboard, let alone the time for you to go fuck around in the ocean for hours on end and not bring back food.
P.S A big fuck you to the media in Aus/NZ normalizing living in a van as a 'lifestyle choice'! Might be for me at age 35, but when I was in my early 20's I had a big house I was renting, a decent wage and was saving for a deposit, which was doable back then.
Living the van life ain't all beer and skittles.
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/crime/we-owe-him-melbourne-dad-...
Another really interesting, topical and thought provoking article by Steve.
I like the perspective on future surfing talent. I’d assume a prerequisite for making it to the tour would be living at most bike riding distance from the beach and surfing 2-3 times a day from single digits of age.
It’s the same story here on the sunny coast as pretty well all the above comments. Seemingly:
Population explosion, house and rental price explosion, reduced rental availability, surf getting more crowded, increased homelessness particularly people living in vehicles, the same kinds of low-skilled low-pay jobs on offer locally with seemingly no wages growth, a lot of my tradie mates making a killing though, duplexes going up everywhere, sold signs on houses that never made it to the market, nearly every house selling before auction, half the place seemingly under construction, lots of new Sydney and Melbourne people moving into the community, traffic getting more aggressive, overall general increased feel of life being a competitive rat race.
In the past 6 months or so in my little cul-de-sac alone of only 8 houses we’ve had one large Indian family from Melbourne buy sight unseen and move in seemingly during vic lockdowns, and a very wealthy professional Scottish couple from Sydney who work remotely from home again buy sight unseen and move in seemingly when they shouldn’t have.
The Scottish couple are super unfriendly and after I eventually squeezed a conversation out of them and told them I was born and bred on the Coast they immediately ended the conversation and now look straight past me in the street without even acknowledging. They really add to the community feel.
But I recently spoke to a previous colleague from the US who is travelling through the UK, he was in Ireland at the time, and he said the same thing is happening there.
Just wave a satchet of Spice and/or Irn-Bru in front of the Scots, that'll bring 'em round to a conversation
Negative gearing has driven speculation
Foreign investment has been a huge problem. Money from shifty financial domains, tax free hubs.
Both driving this thing with the government in the back seat asleep.
Public housing must be front & centre of all development.
We just participate in this boom-crash opera cycle that's rinse & repeat
I started my apprenticeship in 73 - $25.00/week. My wage had increased 50% by end of the year.
It won't surprise me to see something similar when real inflation takes hold in this country. But this is now different as the control levers have all changed. We don't make anything, we just mine it. For some they'll get a slice but for many it's going to be harder than it already is, the divide will become gaping.
This is another great article Steve
My takeaway is about the kids now & how we treat them, this is so unfair in a supposedly free democracy. You might see the grommets out there but not seeing the 18+ out there in the line up in numbers is not right IMO.
Our kids mental health, maybe it's about what we want our society to look like
Eh, plenty 18 plus surfing around Coffs Coast. People need to get away from a driving distance to cities.
Shhhh....
its rarely any good though
Property in the surf towns of South Coast NSW have gone through the roof!
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/mollymook-house-bought-for-226m-in-20...
$7.75m capital gain in 5 years. $2.5m over asking price.
https://thebuglenewspaper.com.au/news/news/7-1-million-sale-in-gerroa?id...
$2 million above the previous record set in June this year
Not sure how many early 20s commenters there are on here but I barely know anyone my age who thinks they have a chance of owning any property around here growing up on Sydney's NB. Pretty certain a lot of us will be living at home for far longer than previous generations, if lucky enough to do so you better be nice to your parents yeah whoops. Most mates have given up on the idea of property anyway.
Saving $20-30k pa. isn't ideal when prices go up 30%. Market acceleration leaving me in the dust hahaha and not ideal relying on inheritance which is 30+ years away.
Maybe moving overseas is a better option who knows? Bali vlogger style yewww something along the lines of:
HOW TO ESCAPE THE HOUSING CRISIS AND LIVE LIKE A KING IN BALI!!!
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/mick-fanning-lands-multimillion-payda...
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/mick-fanning-lands-multimillion-payda...
I’m curious about up and coming surfing talent.
I’ve long been of the thought that with all the rich Sydney / Melbourne middle aged + non surfers moving to the coast and working classes families forced out of our coastal areas, it is likely there’ll be a lot less young rippers coming through the ranks.
Does this mean less competition to make it to a higher level for the kids lucky enough to be at the coast and into surfing now?
House prices in Carnarvon are cheap like $180 000 for a three bed unit or townhouse or even duplex. The crime is through the roof though. i might move there because crime gives security technicians/electricians like me a job.
Prices here in Kalbarri are going up but to get a loan from a bank you need 50% of the price as a deposit as banks think its a risky place to buy.
And as far as surfing talent goes Kalbarri has produced some of the most talented underground rippers ive ever seen, population ratio wise, many great surfers are from here.(not me though im a kook compared to the talent that live here)
For a lazy ol bastard like me, Canaar sounds like paradise. Surf when its on, best local fruit and veg, hang out with my big dog :) Thanks for the tips, see you up there!
Speaking of Carnarvon, little Chloe has been found in a mans locked house in Carnarvon, not sure if anyone else posted that news on here yet but Carnarvon is a shithole with a lot of fucked up twats.
For those that might not know Chloe went missing at Blowholes camp site a few weeks ago in the middle of the night and after massive sea,land and air searches the cops finally found her. A lot of people assumed she was murdered by some pedo or something.
Anyway great news.
Banks think Kalbarri is a risky place to buy
Where the hell did you get that info.
He don't like gypsies haha
I'd say it's the same as Geraldton. After the mining boom, the ass end fell out of the real estate.
Insurance companies won't like Kalbarri now too after the cyclone went through.
Its what my real estate agent told me. Also they said the photos on the wall of future developments map wont be built in my lifetime.
The banks wont loan money due to a major drop in prices after the mining decline.
Also this town is full of gypsys living in vans from all east coast states and a lot of other states at the moment, so is Gnaraloo and Red bluff...not sure about down south.
No problem to me. I own freehold on the Gold Coat and a house I bought 20 years ago in Ellerslie NZ.
To all the whingers about house prices being too hard for the young…feel free to sell them your house at what they can afford. Social housing? Buy a house and rent it out cheap.
Seriously, when it comes down to sell, those saying house prices are too high…will sell for every cent they can get.
(Some Devil’s advocate included)
Simple solution, stop having so many babies.
In my lifetime the population of Australia has more than tripled. Plus (except for Covid) massive tourism and overseas students (immigration by stealth). All that extra demand on our resources (land, water sewage, roads, hospitals, etc etc.) has pushed the price of housing up to the ridiculous levels we see now. Plus for many years there was no capital gains tax on investment properties.
When you allow successive generations to enrich themselves for basically doing nothing except being in a position to afford real estate investments or other forms of speculation you are weakening the incentive to work hard and get ahead. Our society seems to look up to investment bankers, water speculators and other lower forms of life and I feel for the younger generations who will never get a fair go for housing in a way that my generation did. Not good for social cohesion and perhaps one day it will even lead to bloodshed.
The young people of today want greater social cohesion. They want to achieve. But they going to have to take on what they are being forwarded. They are going to have to fight even harder for the broader greater good. Use Collective energy, inspiration to create change , ask hard questions in the search for accountability and responsibility, have the balls to go your own way, Surround youselves with positive people, (ditch the rest) Take on those that are standing in your way. The future is yours any way you receive it. Change starts with you. Fuck the rest. You are in a time of great change. Embrace it, lead and take your future back. Vote with your feet and and what you consume, Right now they got you down but you gotta rise above. Lead us to a better future. You know what you want and respect. Go hard
Speaking of mobility.I'd like to use this platform to thank the Japanese people for making such reliable cars and awesome 4wds over the years.
They really have put the other countries to shame including the once reliable European cars.
Domo Aragato Gozimus Japan.
When you thank the Japanese, the Japanese in turn thank W. Edwards Deming.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming
True.
Amazing the Americans couldn't adopt the philosophy.
Fitted very well with the Japanese culture and mindset to their advantage.
Probably the same as the embracing semiconductors from the US instead of sticking with tubes like the yanks
Amazing that a guy that was trying to help his country and improve the way things where done was ignored.
Funny place the of U S of A.
Japanese didn't fuck around and grabbed it.
Yeah it's a stunning story that next to nobody knows. If Australia ever wants to make things again, he's your man.
Rising real estate prices are a factor of many things, but one big factor that hasn’t been mentioned is that of the real estate agent and the process. Nothing real about that all. IMO the process needs better regulation or at least some rules around transparency. Blind auctions provide green lights for dishonest agents which leads to pure exploitation of buyers, thereby feeding house price inflation more than if it were a truly transparent system - in particular in a booming market. Hyper exploitation of buyers FOMO.
Here’s an idea. Take all the f)&@wits and put them in Canberra..... ahh wait....
Great article Steve. I didn't get my ass into gear fast enough and so when it was time to buy could only afford G'bah. It was 25-30 mins from coast and I put up with that. Puts surfing in a different perspective and you appreciate it more but do it less. Do it less means you settle for fun rather than performance.
You mentioned Coraki in a post some time ago, fact is Coraki is only 20 minutes from the coast and even cheaper. Fact is, you need to buy what you can afford, and bite the bullet.
There is a noble democracy in big sprawling suburbs - where the everyman can traditionally afford a home. Until recently even coastal big suburbs - eg Banora Point - were affordable. Now people in Sydney are probably looking at those and comparing them to their $1.3 million western Sydney home and happily trading huge sums to get in.
Now my wife and I work heaps and I wish I worked like this 13 years ago! But I'm hardly surfing. I envy the tradies who set up shop in the 80s and 90s and lived through the lean times and have now an endless supply of work and great houses!
This will all end in tears though when interest rates go up. My prediction is the price rise party could continue for another year, maybe two, then flatline for awhile. All signs are pointing to inevitable interest rate rises in at least 2024 due to overseas lending market rates on the rise. Unless wages start growing there will be a whole lot of people exposed to job losses and housing losses in the next recession. More like '92 than 2008. I sincerely think within the next five years it's a matter of when, not if. However, the Northern Rivers is somewhat if a niche area because so many highly paid work from homers want to buy here. Places like Byron and Lennox/Ballina, I really see them holding their value through thick and thin. So don't wait for market to drop there!
Coastal property has always had supply issues thanks to 180 degrees of water on one side plus low lying zones and hilly terrain in many areas. But when you combine that with the obsessive level of demand for "coastal living" it is crazy.
These could be the last indulgence of excess before the fall of the empire though. One senses that people are so obsessed by feathering their own nest these days (or simply driven by desperation) that the bonds of community aren't as strong. In the "old days" did people have more time? Or are we just wasting it all looking at our devices? Food for thought.
Things might take an interesting turn in 22 though. The gobbling up of rentals in Byron is being driven by Work from home. At my company its been very effective - but they have their own building in the CBD and now want people back on site 3 days a week. If you're a senior exec in a big company - you don't want to be too far from the CEO's ear - so when the CEO is back in the office - you don't want the other execs getting better access than you - i.e "elevator pitches" etc. I'm predicting a fairly rapid reverse migration for certain types.
In these times ya gotta get Creative people don't drop your head, if you really want a house there are ways, I went halves with my brother on our first house it was a solid mortgage for me single male at the time, then we used the capital off that one to get another house, Boom we both had houses within 5 years.. Think outside the box. Get 4 of you and buy a some hinterland land..300k each live in a fkn caravan eat fkn rice whatever ya have to do,,,,, go forth and conquer..
Adapt like the above if possible. Its a time of reinvention and new possibility. Think outside the negative of what is currently available. All great movements started small. Byron etc might have exploded but Byron shouldn't define the way forward. Atmosphere and energy change, either you embrace it or not.
Materialistic utopia is far from happiness. People who say it can't be done only have a limited vision of what they often only themselves achieve. Embrace what you love and go forth as the above stated. Make your own and take like minded people with you. Lifes an adventure, no right or wrong when you stay true to your self.
Great take on it Rob.
Totally Bob, Limited tunnel vision think outside the box
:) shit yeah. Like it Richo
That's the spirit.
wow. On topic ha. Hopefully things are about to change. There is too much fomo in the market. People should really calm down. The housing market can't go up forever. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. House's aren't included in the cp lie index.
real inflation may be 10 to 12 percent and climbing thanks to our mate Joe bid.
The trains coming and they've tied us the tracks.
To be honest.
If I didn't have a family, my preference would be a home stay style set up like you have in Bali.
Good size room with a queen bed, small kitchen area toliet shower and couch and a tv with a small porch out the front.
Communal kitchen
Met lots of people instead of being locked in suburbia like Australia
Close to good waves and cafes/restaurants.
Yet we have no such style developments in Australia.
I find it's all you need. Quite simple living.
Would be quite happy to trade for a 4x2 or McMansion anyday
Leebo, I nearly did this in 88 after my 1st trip to Indo at 16. Suffice to say now at 49 and having had 2 knee reco's, spina fusion surgery, two face reconstructions, a should reconstruction and mutliple other night to week in Australian Hospitals (all surfing related) Im not sure that option, on review, would have worked out so well for me!
Sorry to hear Spooky.
What a bugger
Then again a pavilion style house on the NSW north coast wouldn't be bad either.
All the subdivisions are looking all same around Australia. Ticky tacky boxes not really suited to their climates or environments
Are we in the 1950s or 2021...
House prices in Agnes water are still really affordable , the boom hasn’t hit there yet but is starting to. You can still buy land on the beach up there really cheap. There’s a big shortage of tradies up there so lots of work on. I know a few folks from the Byron area and Noosa who have recently bought and moved up there and love it. So there are still some coastal gems about as long as you prepared to look outside the box and get outside your comfort zone …..
The boom hasn't hit yet?
ABC ran an article three weeks ago that quoted a local builder/hardware store owner as saying: "The population has virtually doubled, I believe, in the last 12 months."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-10/agnes-water-1770-boom-with-southe...
Yes the population probably has increased somewhat in the last 12 months but to say it has doubled is a bit of an exaggeration... my point being that it is still cheap up there compared to everywhere else, the property boom is coming up the coast no doubt but is only just starting up there. I saw a property valuation report a couple of months ago that showed places like Agnes Water/1770 at the bottom of the property cycle whereas Northern NSW, GC, Sunny Coast, Sydney, Melbourne etc are all approaching the top. Most importantly there are lots of jobs up there especially for folks with trades.....
“ Northern NSW, GC, Sunny Coast, Sydney, Melbourne etc are all approaching the top.”
Wondering how you quantify that Jack.
Sorry I read it in a real estate property report a couple of months ago that was sent to me - it was a property cycle wheel and it had different regions in various phases of the cycle. I just tried to find it again but couldn’t .
I haven’t been keeping a close eye on Byron or Lennox but Ballina and Lismore are going nuts.
Properties are going for at least 10% more than the asking price and buyers are falling over each other.
The two Real Estate agents I spoke to today are pretty much in a state of shock.
In other words it doesn’t appear that we are remotely close to any sort of plateau or end of cycle.
Didn't Doug Warbrick (ex Rip Curl) buy a place up there recently for $8 million?
Sounds on the higher side of affordable.
Bet it's a nice place though.
'Twas Brian Singer.
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/rip-curl-founder-catches-a-break-and-...
Bong got in early as did Dougie
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/gladstone/38m-agnes-home-...
Just read the article, it says Warbrick.
Either way, doesn't matter. Seems the surf industry big boys own properties on just about every good surf break.
Didn't one of the Rip Curl guys drop $25 million on a place at Wategos too?
Argh, my bad (how did I misread that?). Was thinking of the Wategos house at the same time, which Brian Singer bought for $22m.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/ripcurl-founder-brian-singer-buys-geoff-m...
Claw's been up at Agnes for quite a few years anyway (as per the article, states there are 4 other properties linked to RC).
Don't you get the stingers up their?
Probably not a variety of waves though.
Might have to be sharing it with a few more punters these days
Not if you have a boat ….
Interesting spot.
Looking at the aerial shots on Real Estate the whole areas been carved up into allotments.
Busy plans for the small town...
Colour of the beaches not as nice as WA but at least you have trees I guess.
Reefs are probably a long way offshore compared to WA
Still, pretty affordable
This is an interesting place and gives you an idea of the landscape up there at Agnes/1770 https://www.sunrise1770.com.au
Seen 'eco' villages like White Gum Valley in Perth that aren't eco at all. Poor orientation and building design etc.
They where spruking affordable for low income earners, yet $400,000 for a 1 bedroom apartment...BS artists
Currumbin one looked alright when I was there though and looked like they got it sort of right
Thanks for the link
And then cost of rates. Wonder how high
Probably exxy to build their too. No doubt a shortage of trades.
As Ben pointed out with ABC article booming their too
Probably not a variety of waves though.
Might have to be sharing it with a few more punters these days
Yeah, but one fairly average wave that breaks half a dozens times a year would not sustain anyone who's a committed surfer...you'd do better to buy in Tullamarine than Agnes.
If you think that you obviously haven’t spent much time up there….or your a local trying to throw everyone off the scent….:)
Do they have crocodiles up there?
No crocs or box jelly's they are all further north. Agnes is just north of Bundaberg.
That's a bonus. Living somewhere with Crocs and Box Jellyfish would be sub-optimal.
Of course in Byron they have to put up with Sup-Yoga enthusiasts, which is probably a lot worse. I'd rather get stung by a jellyfish and get my leg bitten off by a croc than have to share the beach with those oxygen thieves.
crocs being spotted as far south as Maryborough.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-01/rba-australia-a-servant-property-...
Living in interesting times.....
yep.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-01/real-estate-housing-affordability...
Just read local real estate flyer mention house on one of the waterfront roads just took out the region's max sale price which was 7.5Mn. Now assume average wave of 75K, thats > 10x earnings, hang on, no, that would be 750K which is about a 4x2 in a new subdivision; that record price, that's 100x earnings. I know not apples with apples but holy moly
As I’ve said before, the whole problem can be solved by govts creating the 400 k mortgage. House and land packages fixed at that price for anyone who has lived in that particular region for over 5 years will throw a spanner in the greed works. Unused farmland everywhere on the outskirts of regional communities can be bought in bulk for 10 k an acre so I’m sure the gov can do 200 k serviced blocks and still make a good profit to re invest. Most big builders do a budget 200 k brick and tile house. If nationals gurvish singh can get $14,000,000 for a boat ramp in Coffs that is already inside a harbour I’m sure he can get it for housing land. This can be applied in every district. A mortgage of $400 per week is achievable to anyone with a job and a small govt. backed deposit… seems easy to me…I know it can be done so hassle your local member to do it and stop all the nonsense and theft by developers.
Further to your good thinking Optimist, the "tiny house" on even smaller allotments idea seems like another part of a workable solution. Not much bigger than a van but drier and actually designed for living in - and even more affordable. I definitely do not support further population growth but for people here unable to afford purchase or rent "full sized" dwellings these could provide security, stability and maybe a stepping stone.
I think we would need to think long and hard about considering unused farmland as cheap building land. It will become increasingly precious. Maybe marginal farming land where part can be tiny homes on small allotments, part community land for food gardens and animals and part ecological restoration and rehabilitation. People need homes but also a quality of life - not just an existence.
I think that in the end Aus needs to really reconsider whether ongoing growth is still suitable as our model for existence. It seems to be failing and it could be said we have already reached the continent's carrying capacity. The housing crisis is just one symptom of this. It seems the young and less wealthy are encountering and realising this well before the older and more wealthy and more likely to embrace workable change.
Four Corners was a good watch last night on the state of housing
It was, although as one of the many being priced out it was a pretty grim picture. It's freaking nuts out there, and no sign of change on the horizon- essentially, why would there be? If you own already, you are set. Buy an E-bike!
If not, see ya...
Can't believe Hobart is more expensive than Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. Interestin comments about the Howard government and halving the capital gains tax and subsequent governments doing nothing to assist. The ALP did try but failed in their attempts to amend the issue.
Maybe people looking forward and thinking not a bad place and will handle global warming better than the mainland.
Higher rainfall with ever reducing on the mainland. Why do you think wineries and the rest have moved their
Air B & B killing the area too I think
12% of the private rental market in nipaluna/Hobart are AirBnBs. It's a free for all down here, as people desperately seek to make themselves wealthy without a single iota of concern for the community. House prices went up $18, 000 last month. They've gone up 28% in a single year. In June average house prices were going up $440 every single day without owners doing a single thing. Five years ago, Tasmanians across the whole island paid about $560 million in rent each year. That's over $1.1 billion now, a staggering increase in the amount people are having to fork out to remain off the street, and represents an enormous transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. The situation here is absolutely munted and it's completely driven by individual greed - everything just poisoned by capitalism and an obsession with money. Our borders open up in a month or so and the Premier has already stated with glee how many wealthy Sydneysiders will be lining up to move down here and turn it into their own little "affordable" playground, with literally no concern for those who live here and have nowhere else to go.
https://www.homely.com.au/agnes-water-miriam-vale-wide-bay-burnett-queen...
Reviews of the place aren't too flash
The Federal Government gave $40 billion in Jobkeeper to companies that didn't need it (ie. the money goes to wealthy shareholders not employees). They literally taxed the poor and gave to the rich in an absolutely staggering sum. That money has largely flowed into property and the results are this article.
I wish we could impeach - I would move so.
For a mob that speaks of free enterprise they are socialist gone really bad!
Vote wisely!
Sharpen the guillotines!
Should point out too that the government is vigorously pursuing individuals that were overpaid $30 million JobKeeper, Which is fine in itself, but shows the absurdity of not pursuing the $40 billion. So the remaining surf van owners probably gonna have to downgrade to a hatchback.
If you live long enough your nursing home will get it all anyway.
No mate.
Write a decent Will.
Die honourably.
It's funny how everyone wants to create this image of the good old days.
Whether complaining about changes to Byron, Noosa etc
Been a great marketing tool to flog real estate with this utopian lifestyle.
Things are always changing and never seem to improve for the better.
Byron now full of filthy backpackers or drunk/drugged out people flooding into the area for weekends/events.
Better to live 30 minutes away from it or another location.
Even in Agnes, looks like the mob have followed there with stupid prices and more subdivisions.
As a few have said before. Better to enjoy it now as these are the good old days.
Change is coming and from past history it ain't looking good
It's funny how everyone wants to create this image of the good old days.
Whether complaining about changes to Byron, Noosa etc
Been a great marketing tool to flog real estate with this coastal utopian lifestyle.
Things are always changing and never seem to improve for the better.
Byron now full of filthy backpackers or drunk/drugged out people flooding into the area for weekends/events.
Better to live 30 minutes away from it or another location.
Even in Agnes, looks like the mob have followed there with stupid prices and more subdivisions.
As a few have said before. Better to enjoy it now as these are the good old days.
Change is coming and from past history it ain't looking good
Heaps of truths in there, Steve. I agree that surfing has become gentrified and that the mongrel is near extinct. Fewer and far between, but I reckon there's always going to be Dane Reynolds type characters to keep the milk and honey boys on their toes.
It's patchy, but the crowds are thinning up my way for sure. And the only people you see on the beach are septuagenarian (or fast approaching) elite crew walking dogs worth more than my truck. And one thing I rarely see is a fisho on the beach.
Last time I was down NSW, surfing adjacent the fresh water lakes at Lennox, I was blown away by the caliber of the canine prancing around. There had to be a hundred k in dog flesh, not to mention the mint of flash dog transporters parked haphazardly, with disheveled/junkie/vegan/hipster/hollywood types exiting or entering them.
Surfers have always been considered as The Golden Breed (I can't believe that brand hasn't been cancelled yet) and now even more so. Look, it was always going to happen. The coastline gone to designer dogs and the franking credit crew. There's a pure irony in that.
I'm treading water, and have been for a few years now, but for how much longer I can't say. It's tough for single parents and low to middle income earners, students and regular people are suffering around here. I try not to blame capitalism and the crew that know how to play and win at that game. Not sure what game I'm playing. Not monopoly, that's for sure. More like snakes and ladders.
In closing, the caliber of surfing is going to shit around here. It's a different type of animal. Not core surfers, not on the whole. More the hobbyist and day tripper. Which I don't mind at all.
Your post is good, but I'm stunned at the 100K dogs. What kind of breeds are we talking about here? Is this a thing? The Bro bought a miniature dachshund pup and that was about 5K more or less, I can also understand everything has gone up, but 100K?!
Hey VJ. I meant a collective hundred k worth of dog. Probably more like 300k. Dozens of dogs and their owners trailing south into the surf-mist and back. Easy thirty. Any fine morning. It's like a dog show. Yorkies and Frenchies can go for 10k each.
.
Yeah same down here (Illawarra).
Apparently dogs are like houses, since the pandemic they have exploded in popularity and what was a $600 dog is going for $6k.
Unlike housing, since opening up loads of them have been put up for sale. The bubble has burst! Now's the time to pick up a doggie bargain from some terrible human who can't deal with a pet now they have to go back to work.
Cheers damo-b, that's still pretty nuts. As Graeme Garden said in The Goodies "God, it's like Crufts in here!" (haha that one's an age test.)
Best ever little mate was the bestest farm kelpie getting bored, walking over to the next farm, coming back pregnant. She dug a deep underground hole (45 degree harvest heat outside) and had two beaufitful pups. I picked up the little fella by hand, first human touch, and as it was my parents wanted him, and I had a heeler-kelpie cross mate for life. Priceless.
Mates daughter bought a dog for $7500. Got out through a hole in the fence and struck by a car on a nearby highway. Had the dog for a week. Expensive lesson
307 comments and counting, it must be some sort of a record.
I've always thought Negative Gearing is a substantial contributor to inequality in home ownership. It's a no brainer for someone on a high taxable income, buy a second, third, fourth property and if they start making a loss eg rent doesn't cover the mortgage the government steps in and pays your way.
For every negative geared investment property is a family missing out on owning their own home, this is where the property investors jump in and say they are providing a service to people that want to rent and without them rents would be higher than they are etc etc.
It's more likely that without them renting families would be able to afford their own home. Having a roof over your head is essential, not a way to increase wealth.
Now back to the surfing!
"The median house price in Sydney in 1981 was $78,900, five times the national full-time average annual earnings of $15,800. In 2021, the city’s median house price was $1.31 million, 14 times the average income.".
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/house-price-growth-three-times-faste...
Paging FrazP
Man so true!! Growin up in Wollongong, the joint was decent priced and talent in the water was more than above average. Now it’s through the roof with kooks floundering in the line up!
Another good four corners:
https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/obeid-inc:-the-secret-deals-making-the-o...
Greedy people and dodgy shire councillors everywhere
Everyone wants to rent/buy in the primo areas. Bad luck you cannot. The outcome will be less desirable areas will become gentrified by default. Once upon a time someone probably had the desire to live in Clovelly but, unfortunately could only afford Maroubra. Look now.
Your mate should buy in Casino and when he's 50 think "thank Christ I'm not renting at Busbys Flat now"
More real estate articles, more locals pushed out articles, more changing north coast articles....more "it was better in the day" articles.
"...and in the eyes of the people there is the failure; and in the eyes of the hungry there is a growing wrath. In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage."
Surf coast, where we used to laugh thinking “who would ever want to live here if ya didn’t surf” .? Too fkg cold too windy , too inconsistent and no women !!!!
Well as it turns out , thousands of people, who THINK they Surf. . People now actually refer to themselves as “Melbourne locals “ , as in “{Gold Coast locals” around byron , and bring their self satisfied entitlement with therm .The new generation of local kids can’t even afford to rent let alone buy .
It’s neo liberal economics that’s feeding this increased inequality of asset wealth.
My housemate just put a deposit down on a Coaster bus.
Plans to live out of it, park on backroads and the edge of canefields while continuing to work at the local club.
Says he'll shower at the gym.
Bold choice if you ask me - earning below the median wage, having one asset which is depreciating daily, all the while with the nightly threat of being told to move on.
Not to mention what it'd be like if it rains for days or weeks.
The future for some of the working poor?
Same same but different.
I lived in a tent during Pilbara summers with 100 days over 40 degrees. I’ve lived in work camps with shared shitters for hundreds of dudes and slept in dongas for months straight sharing a paper-thin common wall with a Māori rigger who used to bring hookers to his room and plow them from behind with the girls forehead smashing into the Masonite at 3AM.
You do what you have to. At least he’ll be saving coin instead of bleeding most of his hard earned on rent.
He's an extremely positive guy so he'll make it work mentally.
Not sure about the economic side.
I lived out of the back of my ute for maybe 6 months while working up on the Goldie - I found it depressing and isolating.
tough gig when you get to 50/60.