A plea from an Australian living under coronavirus lockdown
The scenes of Australians living life as usual on packed out beaches and busy streets have one Australian ex-pat living under Spanish Coronavirus Lockdown in despair.
As I write this, we are just finishing another day of coronavirus lockdown in Spain. This is the eighth day of complete segregation in our home.
I gaze out of the window at the street below in the city of Girona, in the north-eastern region of Catalonia. The beautiful part of the city in which we live is usually bustling with kids going to school, people exercising or going to work.
Now it is empty, with the main activity being regular police patrols challenging anyone outside of their home.
The atmosphere outside is one I never thought I would encounter. It is thick with a sense of uneasiness. Lone individuals scurry to the shop for essential supplies or take the rubbish out before scurrying back inside.
These little excursions are the highlight of your day in a country where most people haven’t ventured beyond the distance between their house and the local shop for at least a week now.
Millions around the world are now in the same position in a situation unprecedented in most of our lifetimes.
I am writing this because I continue to see images in the media at home of my fellow Australians still clinging to that cherished way of life that is the envy of the world. Scenes of a packed out Bondi Beach and bustling city streets in some bizarre 'business as usual' alternate reality.
Bondi Beach last Friday (ABC)
As an Australian who still adores his country, it makes me despair at what appears to be an entire country collectively sleepwalking into coronavirus oblivion.
It was only two weeks ago that the Spanish Government made the mistake of allowing marches to go ahead in Madrid. Tens of thousands took to the streets for International Women’s Day. Coronavirus fatalities were already being encountered; as they are in Australia right now.
The images of a packed out Bondi Beach look worryingly similar to that of the Madrid marches.
This evening, the death toll in Spain sits at 1,376 and climbing.
Make no mistake, Australia is not immune to what already may be unavoidable because of a lack of action on many fronts. That laid back 'she’ll be right' attitude that we all adore needs to put to one side for the foreseeable future.
Australia needs to consider that small sacrifices such as social distancing and good hygiene can still be made. If these simple acts are not made now, they risk becoming large sacrifices such as loss of life and public lockdown. For these types of sacrifices, there will be no choice.
I can only hope that a collective awakening happens in time to avoid the global disaster that is happening around you.
My mind keeps coming back to the Global Financial Crisis some twelve years ago. Australia defied the rest of the world and avoided the calamity many other countries experienced.
An impending financial crisis is the least harsh, and only one aspect of coronavirus such is its severity.
It is a calamity I fear Australia will not avoid this time around if action is not taken soon.
I just worry it may already be too late.
// CHRIS GEAL
Comments
Don’t harsh our buzz, bro.
Jokes , mate. Thanks for taking the time and effort to try and give us the heads up that some people need. Fingers crossed you stay safe over there and we’ll try to do the same here.
This helped crew get through the last Big One. We can always use the elevation of spirits.
Apparently she’s still kicking ...103 not out !!!
We should be so lucky.
Shut it down already.
Close everything for a month, clear the virus, maybe two months. Then we can go back to normal, domestically at least. Otherwise we're going to have years of this.
Agreed. Get the inevitable over and done with and fcking lock us down. Otherwise it will be 6-12 mths of oblivion which will kill our economy. Lockdowns are already two weeks too late. Close all international borders, even to Aussie residents. if they're not home now they're either safe or stupid.
Lock us down for 4 weeks, then anyone still with COVID gets taken to the goldcoast, put up in quarantine in any one of the thousands of empty hotels and they remain in their until given the all clear. It's not rocket science. We are an island. We can beat this shit in a very short time. We just need to sacrifice life as we know it for a month. Otherwise 6-12 mths down the track we will still be entirely fcked with an overloaded health system and thousands of unfortunate and preventable deaths!!!
Yep its a joke for sure. NSW say schools open then say keep your kids at home. Qld says schools are open but the teachers when you get there want you to take your kids back home. Long lines at the CES. MYGOV crashing etc etc.
We as a family have now essentially put ourselves into self isolation for as long as we can. And yet....after 3 weeks I still cant get F ing toilet paper on the Sunny Coast. Im embarrassed how we as a society have acted tbh.
coles at pacific paradise has tp pretty often, normally on a pallet up the back.. it does run out but we get re stocked. if u want me to get some for u next time I see it let me know
Thanks mate very kind. I’ll sort it out but thanks. I even had my local cafe barista offer me some today. I shake my head as to what’s happened to us aussies. Fomo fear of missing out has reached pandemic proportions!
Much death and a Great, Great Depression.....let's hope not.
This doesn't sound good.
Sophie McNeill called for No Fly Zones in Syria, and the overthrow of the elected government of Syria. McNeill is a journalist stenographer for the Anglo American empire and has no credibility as a journalist. Indonesia is a failed state by and large due to the long history of Anglo American imperialism in Indonesia.
Elected government of Syria... elected by who? Father/son rule for last 50 years.
How is Indonesia, the world's largest democracy, a failed state? Have you been there?
It was a Dutch colony, not "Anglo American".
It's fine to not know something, but not to pretend that you do.
Yeah anyone that thinks Indonesia is a failed state doesn't know anything about Indonesia, it's one of the fastest growing economies in the world, predicted to be number 7th by 2030 and possibly 4th largest by 2050
And believe it or not things like corruption and infrastructure etc are getting much better as is so many others stats.
They will make a mess of this virus business though.
You want to see a failed state, look at East Timor, too small to produce anything so needs import everything cost of living out of control and their main income is petroleum that as we know is on the way out.
And yep where did this Anglo mercian thing come from????
Modern Indonesia was formed from the areas the Dutch occupied for about 150 years, much of the success of Indonesia comes from the basis the dutch provided.
India not Indonesia is the world's largest democracy
How about what she has just reported in that story? Not true? You don't care because of some shit she wrote about a while back when "normal shit" was important?
What's the criteria for a failed state? How do you qualify for that? Just asking.
Poor buggers are toast.
I saw footage of this in Indo on the news last night (ABC not that commercial glorified shit they call news!!). It's devastating and it's only going to get extremely worse for them. They cannot lock down as they cannot survive without income. Their health system is non existent. The footage of dead people collapsed in the street was highly disturbing to me and my partner who frequent Bali multiple times a year and we love and respect the Indonesian people. This truly is a major and tragic catastrophe for Indo. My heart and prays goes out to their people and nation.
In 1918 cities who were slow to lock down (Philadelphia) - 2 weeks too slow - had an 8 x worse outcome than those that did it in 2 days (St Louis). Those that lifted it early had a resurgence. Modelling of San Francisco who kept going in and out of lock down with waves of resulting new cases suggests the deaths could have been reduced by 90% if they had stuck at consistent restrictions for longer. The critical period was from September to May - 6 months.
What was lock down back then? Restaurants closed, churches closed etc - public gatherings stopped. Those that were sick were confined to home or in some form of quarantine. Factories staggered shifts. People were encouraged to walk to work not go on public transport. The whole economy did not stop but the removal of group gatherings and greater social distance worked to lower transmission rates substantially.
Small things mattered. Everybody makes those small decisions many times a day.
So in 2020, touch the hand rail then then your nose - not good. Have ten mates over for a beer and 9 might end up with it. Younger, fit people can get very sick or worse. Some potentially permanent lung damage can occur if the infection really takes hold in the lungs. It is a lottery with perhaps odds of one in ten whether a younger person will get very sick.
Crowded Duranbah or Snapper would be a transmission risk - water up noses etc. more so than surfers would imagine. A lonely beach break along the main beach would be okay.
Soon enough we will have toilet paper coming out our ears. But expect prices of everything to sky rocket and carefree pleasure seeking to be a memory for some time.
St Louis had complete lockdown. No one allowed out of their houses other than for essentials. They flattened the curve immensely and avoided thousands of tragic deaths.
Hey frog - I’ve seen a smidge about the phili vs St. Louis comparison - not much more
Got any links to places you learned what you just repeated - I would like to learn more - maybe others too
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/rapid-response-was-crucial...
NZ is in lockdown
Australian morons who think this shit ain't serious are fucking it up for so many others .
She’ll be right ,mate.
agree
NZ has leadership tho. Australia not.
ha ha ha...yeah right
So with you on this one. Maybe Jacinda has a sister we could borrow for a few months/few years...
Ditto!! and I commend NZ. They've recognised the beauty of being an island and implemented what needs to be done to stamp this virus out.
I heard the islanders were still being allowed in.
i don't get how people can feel confused by the messages being issued by the government. i don't get why people rely on them to be honest. anyone with half a brain and half an eye, can see what is happening in almost every country around the world. STAY AT HOME (if you are able to).
very simple.
not hard.
i am in lock down and at home......sadly the reason people are getting govt messages wrong is because normally, over the years there is so much deceit and lies coming from govts.....so what they say might be dismissed by the mistrusting , naive and ignorant......id like to see govts learn from this too i think they have been arrogant and unappreciative of the people who are paying them and who they serve. your final statement is indeed true.....stay at home , even if its very difficult
I don't agree with Mick i think that is BS, Cookie below touched on the reason.
It's cultural, we don't have obedience to government like many Asian countries and we don't have self discipline like many other cultures.
We just have a don't give a fuck attitude, and an attitude that things that happen elsewhere in the world cant happen here, probably because for most of us we haven't seen anything big and damaging happen in Australia other than natural disasters like cyclones, fires, floods.
agree with both of you, but i think Indo is more in line with my point, which is that the simple solution to level out the curve is to stay at home.
you don't need a government to tell you to do that.
therefore the messaging from the government is actually irrelevant given the solution is dead fkn simple.
all you need is literacy to read the news, a brain to work out what's coming, and a conscience to do the right thing by yourself and others.
if you know someone not doing that, then give them an ear full.
I think there is a lower amount of disciplined countries in Asia than there are more. China, Sth Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong which are tiny sure. Vs everyone else like Indo, Thailand, India, Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh etc those guys will have no chance of controlling outbreaks and that is probably a 3rd of the world's population.
Totally agree wax on.
There's a really difference between those two different groups of Asian countries, one group has/will control outbreaks real well.
The other group you mention is most likely going to be some of the worst hit and managed countries in the world.
Vietnam is in the wrong group. Communist authoritarian government, and switched-on people who have been through heaps of wars on their territory (France, US, China) and know how to deal with hardship and make sacrifice when necessary
I can't speak for the other countries you've mentioned but Vietnam is one of the safest places to be in the world right now. Caught the last jetstar flight out of Ho Chi Minh monday night after spending the last 5 months there. And yes, I went straight into self iso. Currently there are 134 cases in 'nam. The backpackers I was working for had multiple hostels dotted from HCM up to Hanoi and across to Mai Chau in the west. They tracked every single customer, just like the authorities, where they were going, when they entered, when they were leaving and constant health checks when catching night buses. They had sent out 3 public health guidline text messages by January 20th to their citizens. Aus are sending out their first today. We're a long way behind
Yes this INDO!!! 100% hit the nail on the head!!
They're confused because schools and shops are still fcking open for business. The mixed messages from the GOV is outrageous!!!
is it that hard?
essential shops are open, the others that are also open, don't go to them unless you have to or support them via online orders etc. not hard.
schools are open because don't get the virus as bad as adults, so the risk is lower. don't agree with that or the repercussions, but the alternative puts many people out of work, and a large portion of the healthcare service has to stay home.
other countries have also successfully managed to keep schools open, though they seem to have a far more intelligent populous that takes all the other measures seriously.
it's not hard. why do we need to be told what to do like children? why do we complain that our government is letting us down? you know what to do. DO IT.
No it's not that hard for the well educated. But take a look at this thread and tell me that the whole of Australia knows and is implementing a total lock down in their day to day lives? until the gov mandates it, including schools, the aussie public is in disney land with the"she'll be right" attitude.
My children are no longer in school. if you believe that it's OK to send our children to sit side by side each day and come into contact (or risk of contact) with 1000+ other people (or other people's germs) and this is OK to contain the virus and stamp it out in the short term rather than years, then go for it. Let me ask you this. What happens if your child contracts it, passes it onto someone else with an immune deficiency (like a cancer patient) or someone with lung issues (asthmatic) or even worse your child is actually one of these I've exactly described above. Each and everyone of us has a massive part to play in containing this virus. But our Gov needs to fcking step up here and show some true leadership (aka NZ gov). Not just watch Europe and follow what they've done (which clearly hasn't fcking worked).
with you.
my kid no longer in school.
my rant is focussed on or around the moronic behaviour of aussies.
stay healthy.
Just had an email from a mate in Singapore - kids and community sport back on , restaurants and bars are back open and supermarkets well stocked. Now Singapore is not Australia, it is a tiny island with a population of about 5 million and not everything done there can be replicated here but there is a way out. They have a very obedient population (under a quasi dictatorship you soon learn) that follows the rules and people are tracked and harsh penalties apply for transgressors. Everyone just follow our governments recommendations or go even further if you are able to and we will get through it sooner. See you all on the other side.
Sorry - should have got rid of my tag line. Not appropriate now.
"They have a very obedient population"
100% i think it's also cultural, same thing i expect in South Korea, Hong kong, even China (Zen could tell us but i expect Japan similar, must be to have alcohol vending machines) all these countries are doing well controlling things.
People are as you say obedient to government but also very self disciplined, and not sure how to describe it but socially disciplined, they are also like a school of fish, that can flow and work together.
Much different to westerners especially Aussies that are almost the opposite, we are all kind of like, fuck that do our own thing, most likely be our downfall.
Government probably needs to go even harder on us complete lock down with serious fines.
Sng still have borders closed? I’m guessing yes?
They’ve had 0 deaths until 3 days ago when they had 2 - it’s widely reported they’ve done well, as have sth Koreans. Taiwanese...
Surprised they’re relaxing things so soon - hope it’s the right call ... interesting case studies to watch
I wonder how extensive testing has been in sng - if they’ve tested extensively and have established v low (almost zero?) infection rates - that combined with closed borders would be the only thing that would make me feel comfortable about such an apparently quick reversal of restrictions
Interesting times
NDC great comment!
I reckon if a government is able to get their citizens in lock down quick and close there borders, the government would be able to track where the virus is within there population and target treatment in turn loosening restrictions because they know where it is.
If those fuckin' ships hadn't disembarked.
Loose ball that one....
Hopefully it will awaken a sustainable world. Healthy, uplifted and aware.
i went shopping for food today, i was the only one wearing a mask and plastic gloves. people stared at me and looked worried. there was no social distancing. people were bumping into each other.
whats wrong with them? last weekend there was a round of gokart championship, the Geraldine Malibu club had a club contest and tennis club had seven doubles courts going, i wonder how many people will get the virus???? these clubs must be run by idiots or are so selfish to put these events on...
p.s.
there is are run on dog food.
COVID 19 MADE IN CHINA
Or as trump would say
Chy..nah
NZ govt are giving Six month mortgage holidays for workers in NZ affected by virus. What's scomoron got. Oh that's right ,God.
Hang on, Aussie banks have come out and publicly stated they will allow us to defer our mortgage payments for 6 mths. Give em credit where credit is due.
“....our downfall IMHO will be the people.”
You got that right...Australia has a huge dumb as fuck population.
I asked my youngest, miss 14 yo, how her friends are dealing with isolating and all. She said fine, they have been swimming and hanging out together and apparently 8 are havIng a birthday party / açai bowel meet up on the weekend...whilst she is stuck at home in isolation.
As any flue, eventually we all will get it, it's just matter of time. No matter how we'll protect ourselves, isolate or other measures, it's here , it's with us now and it will evolve, mutate and will not disappear. All these lockdowns are just a waste of time. it's not deadly for some and deadly for others. So be prepare we all will get it.
Hey Maka, are you on the frontline? Have you considered how those who have to expose themselves and treat people feel?
Yeah maka2000, it’s just the flu.
Australia has a huge dumb as fuck population. Confirmed in about 30 minutes.
Maka2000
Pull your head out of your arse and get educated on this issue.
My old lady catches it probably dead
,my brother catches it probably dead
People like you are the reason so many will die before their time
maka200 what the fuck mate..
"All these lockdowns are just a waste of time. "
How can people still have this way of thinking?!
Seriously its mind-blowing that this train of thought still exists, some people no matter how much evidence is put in front of them will still prove themselves to be a brain dead cunt. Wake up for fucks sake
+1 @goofyfoot.
you're sound like a greentard brainwashed cunt yourself :D
*you
Maka, please don't tell me you also believe the world is flat......you fckwit!!!
for believing questions go to church, only those people believe in a dude who lives on the cloud and a flat world. I prefer maths, physics, chemistry it's a more reliable and realistic subjects than beliving in something. By the way "fckwit" is your father who didn't explain to you that all people have their right to have their own opinion and it's not a crime. Don't skip school.
At current rates in Indonesia they will have 27 million dead.
It's just a flu though ay
27 millons dead, ahahaaaa,, where do you get those new from , ahaaaaa...
how good is being a troll?! only positive of you being on here is that you're probably locked to a computer. stay there.
not that silly a proposition...
people dropping on streets of jakarta apparently. and now its made it's way into the factories. factories shut down, bus all the workers back to their villages...
....what could possibly go wrong?
I'm so disappointed,
it seems that very few people can understand what's happening and read the messages.
Stay home.
Don't go away for holidays.
Keep your distance.
Got a mate in Canada who is an ICU nurse on the the frontline. He is a no bullshit dude and he said its fucking scary. It's not just an old person's problem its everyone's problem and it ain't pretty.
And once again all these lockdowns are just a waste of time. The virus already here with us. It's just the first wave, we've noticed it and got scared. There will be next wave soon and many more after it in the same way we have early season flue. We could get it at any time of the year from anyone who might hosts it and never notices it as it happens now. Next time most of us we'll be more prepared for it, it will depend on your individual immune system. By the way the flue shot most of you do every year does not work anymore because it's way outdated. Each vaccine takes long time to develop and gets into production as it takes a long time to get the bacteria's protein to grow and extract then it takes time to find a cure for it including testing time on animals and humans which takes years to get the positive results. So do not hope for the immediate vaccine for covid19 which every politician is talking about at the moment. It will not be available, and the future vaccine which they might develop and approve for release will be outdated by the time of the release because the covid19 will evolve by the time. Just be realistic and don't panic as there's way more people died last year just from a simple flue and no one gave a fork about it .
.
gotta love the internet eh? ffs
problem in aust is there are quite a few who are as dumb as a post.....walked past this woman in woolies today,hold my breath when i walk past in an aisle, but the stupid bitch coughs as i walk past putting her hand up not into her elbow,worse thing was shes looking straight at me.........derrr
it's a virus mate not a bacteria.
He's on a roll F.R!
Don't let facts ruin his scattered, uneducated rant.
i guess by F.R you've been referring to your mother
for those young retards i've called it bacteria, yes it's avirus , flue is virus too, hiv is virus and was killing people in thousands for last few decades but i don't see the young dickheads buy gondoms in boxes.
Can someone please release a virus that targets people like Maka2000
ie dumb asses
arrogance and affluence and an australian culture of she will be right mate!
will be the undoing of the county. pull up you fellow australians.
however i feel, its like saying to parko and occy don't drop in at snapper!
i only employee 8 people and they all need there jobs.
#shutitdown
Maka2000 I'm beginning to think your trolling.
Any way, in Indonesia the death rate from covoid is nearly 10 percent so with a population of 270 million .By the time everyone gets it, you do the math it equals 27 million dead
Pretty simple really
A bit like you perhaps?
I don't troll, there's truth, there's a lie and there's statistics. I guess you've heard somewhere about indo population and 10% dying of corona. that 10 % already had some chronic desises and most likely dies from a heart attack or kidney failure or lung cancer cose they smoke like chimney. Just of this coincidence with the current situation the local docs say they died from corona however they've died just because they've already been dead for some time (figures speech )
Criticise Maka all you want.
Only way to say his strategy is worse is for a society to give it a go, wait a year or so and see who, in total, is in front. Them, or those who went the full 6 month societal lockdown strategy.
Depends how you measure “in front”.
It’s not clear.
Ugly for the health professionals who have to leave people dying on trolleys, probably great for the other 90+% who survive the virus.
As per any pandemic, he who recovers first wins.
It’s awful, no doubt.
But Makas strategy may be the best, nobody knows. Lots more casualties in the short term but the remaining survivors might be better off, hard to know which is best
wonder how you ll feel when you have an accident with a broken bone and cut needing stitches, but can’t get medical care, and die of sepsis simply because the healthcare system is overloaded. or could be a bad fin cut just having a surf. easy to be philosophical when death and pain are abstract - see how you go when they’re staring you in the face
dude, it's not my strategy here at all. I think there's nothing too much to worry about this new virus, by the way it will weaken in a few weeks or couple of months and everyone will forget it. Just check china, do you think they've killed the virus ? no way. they have created they new virus and made it a big shit for all, by filming people dying , building new hospitals etc. in reality they've just made world panic so whole world stopped. Now , looked at them , suddenly they've recovered and straterted their factories, and trying to help other contries including australia, lending them material help and money, so in a few years they will ask it back, most of australia will belong to china. It all staged, geopolitical wars here. China expands and this one was good one. Yes , you're right lets see. This is my own opinion, you can think differently. however this new flue is just a flue and we'll get over it. a few people will die every ear from it anyway in the same way they die now.
Some new voices with nothing smart to say between em. Keep your head in up your arse maka, the carpark at margarets today was full of people like yourself who even if they dont get sick or see people they know die will for sure be lining up for dole handouts and posting on their "socials" about how they dont have a job in a the next couple of months. Good luck fuckstick
Join in later this arvo at the point. A few backpackers might be asked politely to leave the area.
I can just imagine the two of you Tyler and Maka, lying face down in the ICU unit as your lungs cave in and you take your last pin hole breaths, dying alone because the nurse holding your hand has rushed off to tend another dying patient, thinking to yourselves, "Yeah, fuck it, let it run, it will be "great" for the others that survived." You are both cunts.
ICU is no good at all, i prefer a joint instead. ICU develops fungus after a few hours of its operation. I would prefer just to die after a joint of course.
Guys, lay off Maka. I know him and he comes across as a bit simple but really he's sharp as a tack. I once saw him tackle this puzzle that said "4 years+", he completed it in under a week!
What’s the evidence Makas strategy is worse than the current strategy?
By worse I mean wholistic state of the country in 5 years time.
It’s all speculation.
The survivors win in Makas strategy.
What do you care if the healthcare providers are traumatised provided you are not one of them?
As an aside, I bet Brendon Murphy hopes he doesn’t need the help of an anaesthetist one
day
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/anaesthetists-slam-bored-cla...
I don't agree with maka200 but his view isn't that far off how Holland is looking at things, bassically only trying to slow down the virus, and accepting that it will run through the community, the UK also toyed with the idea but decided against it.
Going to be interesting to watch how it goes for the Dutch, imagine it's either going to be a disaster or maybe it might work in some way.
@ Indo, it looks like Holland's current mortality rate is about 4.5% as opposed to Spain's, which is under lockdown and where I also live, is roughly 6.5%
Hey terminal
Not sure where ur getting the mortality rates from but most people across the numbers suggest extreme caution reading much into them for a couple of reasons
- deaths Stats lag confirmed Case stats by 2-8 weeks so difficult to say what mortality is until daily confirmed case count stats stop rising and stabilise at least
- no country (that I know of) is testing everyone. In Italy only v v sick people get tested - in Aust more asymptomatic people have been tested - so cant compare the mortality rate across countries
Key focus stats now are # of deaths and even more importantly how fast the death count is accelerating - the stats and explanations at this website are brilliant if you’re interested https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
NDC, the death count lagging the confirmed infected count would actually make the mortality rate higher than reported.
Italy has currently 0.1% of their entire population tested positive. Not sure that 'In Italy only v v sick people get tested' is totally accurate. I do not have information either way, but that is an insane percentage of the population to be critically ill.
We can assume all deaths by this virus in 1st world countries are counted, but the total counted infections are an unknown percentage of total infections. This is what makes the mortality rate difficult / impossible to accurately calculate, which is what you are rightly pointing out. We may never know the true value without the virus leaving a known marker in those infected.
The numbers being used may be on the light side but by how much only depends on how many are infected and not tested:
Italy ...
6,820 dead
69,176 known infections
This, at the surface level indicates close to 10% mortality.
Of those ~69k, 54,030 are actually still active.
Some of them will also die. This is a sad fact.
What we will have, if there are zero new cases, is:
69,176 total cases
6,820 + x% of 54,030 dead
A result greater than 10% mortality rate.
If we assume that only 30% of all infections are tested ... then we see what might be more accurate. Again, we also do not know how many of the active cases will die.
What makes you think the death count lags by more than a day?
The stats are updated every few hours.
Recovery and mortality rates are certainly misaligned by several weeks, so these cannot be used against each other in any meaningful way.
Edit: Death count would lag by a couple to a few days; as long as it takes someone to die after being admitted to hospital and tests returned ... I see that this is what you meant, but certainly not week(s).
South Africa will be on complete 21 day lockdown from Thursday Midnight. No one to leave their homes without proof they going for food, medical supplies, essentials. Army deployed to assist police to enforce. Fines and Jail if caught on streets without valid reason. No surfing, no beach. Some guys I spoke to reckon they'll sneak out for a surf. I think missing a surf for 3 weeks isn't asking alot in a time like this.
Despite my criticisms of the Govt here, they have stepped up when it counted. Hope it works. Australia should be doing the same if not already.
I will be heading to Cape Town in a couple days into the thick of things to be with my partner through this. I'll be driving away from empty pumping Jbay in the rear view mirror. Best forcast since winter last year. Wonder if anyone will risk a crack at it.
Keep you guys posted on developments.
Fuck SLOW-Mo, a useless leader he’s been like a rabbit staring at the headlights of an upcoming car ready to run us all over with the Corona car of death.
Finally !
Scummo getting the picture and declaring that only essential services such as hairdressers, Universities and local council elections will continue.
Time will tell with Scomo and Murphy.
I think they’ve nearly got it right.
Couple of mistakes we’re allowing crowds at the first round of NRL and not isolating everyone off the Ruby Princess, only allowing them back into society with a negative test at 14 days.
By the way, we have slowed the curve, as have Germany and Korea but while there is one patient with corona out there and 80% of the population not exposed to the virus it can all restart. The flatten the curve option is a year or two process. But less people in total die (maybe) and less healthcare workers die.
Spain and Italy didn’t flatten the curve initially then went into total lockdown, as did Wuhan.
But these countries may rapidly reverse their restrictions in the next 2 months with many dead in the meantime but a return to productivity and quality of life for the survivors.
It’s a complex moral and philosophical debate, no way of doing a randomised controlled trial.
Will find out in a few years which country bounces back the best
Ignorance is bliss..I have a degree in Natural Science and Assoc. Diploma in Applied Genetics so have a understanding of the implications of cross DNA mutations and the world that we exist in..thats been the cornerstone of evolution and humans are an example of this..
We are looking at a virus that can cross DNA barriers and mutate again and again in a bid to survive ..
There is a great meme going but as I can’t post it for maka2000 and Tyler, but it goes like this.
Dumb people. It’s only a 3% kill rate.
Smart people. If I give you 100 skittles and told you 3 would kill you. Would you eat 97? Or would you avoid all fucking Skittles?
Easy to criticise Roadkill until you are the one taking responsibility for either decimating the economy or killing people.
Decimating the economy will likely kill people too.
Is complex, no solution is ideal.
We have had 10 or so days head start on this and our escalation rate is lower than most countries, as it should be.
Where it ends who knows but we are a fighting chance to not reach breaking point of our services, although this will massively prolong the recovery process.
The more you understand the less the clear the options become
But, would you eat the Skittles? (ps, I know the answer).
Would I eat 97 skittles out of 100 if I knew 3 of them were lethal? No.
But if I was told that I needed to eat 1 of them in order to survive I would eat 1.
And then there’s a sliding scale thereafter with all sorts of permutations.
Ie if I was told I had to eat 1 otherwise I’d spend the rest of my life a quadriplegic then I’d eat 1.
If I was told I had to eat 1 otherwise I’d have a sore throat for 2 days then I wouldn’t eat any.
It’s complex mate.
It is not really complex....it is actually really fucking simple. And dumb cunts like you still fail to grasp it....mate.
Ok Roadkill, what would you do in these scenarios:
1. If you don’t eat 1 skittle, you will become a quadriplegic for life
2. If you don’t eat 40 skittles, you will become a quadriplegic for life
3. If you don’t eat 1 skittle, you will get a sore throat for 2 days
4. If you don’t eat 97 skittles you will die anyway ie your only chance of survival is to have a go eating all 97 and hope for the best
You’re mumbling irrationally now. Covid 19 and the associated analogy has nothing to do with becoming a quadriplegic or a sore throat.
What I highlighted is so far above your level of understanding it’s embarrassing for you.
You didn’t answer those scenarios Roadkill, fair enough.
I’ll tell you what I’d do:
1. Eat the skittle
2. Eat the 40, still roughly equal odds you won’t get one of the bad 3 and I couldn’t face life as a quad, I’d rather die (but that’s just me)
3. Don’t eat the skittle. Why take the 3/100 risk? It’s only a sore throat for 2 days
4. Eat the 97, give it a go, I’m going to die anyway if I don’t
Still think I’m rambling incoherently?
Hopefully that enlightens you regarding risk/benefit/consequences, it can be very complicated sometimes
This is hilarious.
I'd stay home, eat the Snickers and give the Skittles to Tyler.
Win/Win.
I’ve made the mistake of trying to talk rationally Zen.
It his analogy but he doesn’t want to answer... let you decide who is the dumb cunt
All good Tyler.
I made up my mind 3 paragraphs ago.
From gov.uk
"Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.
The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase."
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid?fb...
Mortality rate = number of deaths/number who test positive and recover … Correct?
So at this stage a comparison of mortality rates between countries wouldn't seem to be a reliable process
I'm sure there's a stats guy on here that will correct me if this is wrong but once the sample sizes are big enough then yep, they're comparable (just as descrptives)
Yup, pretty much. Have to consider testing frequencies as well. He was probably on the money saying it might not be valid at present, but down the track they will be more accurate. Stay safe all.
I’m doing a masters in data science - I know some things, not all things - still learning
This is the best site I’ve seen -simple stats, what to focus on (rate of acceleration of death rate) - what to be cautious of (mortality rate stats) + some interesting insights into why many people find the exponential growth rates of a spreading, new virus strain hard to comprehend
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Almost the most amazing WTF of the Trump presidency. And that's saying something.
Trump is taking advice from his televangelist religious advisers. That Paula White is a bigger whack job than Trump, and that’s pretty hard to achieve.
Que Dead Kennedy’s- Kill the Poor.
Should be the backing track to the above statements.
Wonder what the Easter Bunny is carrying this year?
Slight subject change folks
I work in water and sewerage in a large east coast city. Please tell your family and friends not to flush wet wipes or anything other than toilet paper or tissues. We are already seeing an increase in sewage pump 'ragging' and blockages in the sewer network from wet wipes and other materials, which many are attributing to the shortage of toilet paper. Please only flush the 3 Ps - pee, poo and paper (toilet) or your own house or street could be the next one with an unwanted and environmentally damaging overflow. Cheers.
As someone with a gully on his property that relieves six houses, please do as Roger the Plumber says.
Twice I've been the poor sap with raw sewage to clean up cos one of my twat neighbours doesn't know what should or shouldn't go down the dunny.
Don't wanna do it it in the midst of this germ-free freak out.
https://sifted.eu/articles/coronavirus-windscreen-ventilator/
Scary but hopeful.
That’s pretty good. Everyday people getting on with it and looking for solutions.
Could not have written or said this ANY better myself, Long read but stick with it, as the message is fcking clear and simple!!! Stay the fck home!!
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be93...
@donweather - incredible article - everyone should read this - it educates, it provides informed hope... epic!!!
Shouldn’t our govt be educating us in this way - am I overestimating joe citizens capacity to understand? Or is it such fresh knowledge they haven’t had the chance? Is their a countervailing argument - approach that we should consider, they invite people to put it forward - I hope the public servants advising our leaders (and I’ve worked with several over the years and I have found their work of a high high standard) are across this kind of thinking...
From the Jakarta Post:
"The COVID-19 situation is already bad in Indonesia, which now has the highest death toll in Southeast Asia just a few weeks after declaring itself “virus-free”. As of Wednesday, Indonesia had reported 686 cases with 55 deaths.
The crisis is likely going to get worse. Experts predict that more than 70,000 Indonesians will have been infected by the disease as of Ramadan and Idul Fitri, during which millions of the country’s Muslims typically travel to their hometowns.
That number, according to one scientist, is a “conservative” estimate."
Yeah and religion always comes first over there, they will still do what they normarlly do during celebrations.
Going to be a complete disaster in Indonesia.
Catch Covid-19 and let Allah sort it all out...religion will not save them.
‘please stay home’ from australian health professionals
https://mobile.twitter.com/abc730/status/1242714365788184576
I'm in isolation in adelaide in a hotel overlooking a very busy takeaway food and drink bar.
No social distancing in the several hundred customers that were observed over a couple of hours. All cramped in a small store ordering.
I cant believe how fuckin retarded people are at this point in time.
Only one slice of a worldwide drama but...
I did some simple xcel projections for the USA death rates and very sick rates - potentially needing hospitalisation. This is what is baked into the cake already from around 6 weeks steady spread everywhere to date.
In two weeks from now there could be over 130,000 people critically ill with 4000 per day joining that category. The number infected would be in the millions.
Death rates over there by the time Trump wants his beautiful full churches on Easter Sunday could be 1000 per day. My numbers were conservative. The simple projection showed 35,000 dying per day in 3 weeks from now with only a 0.6% death rate in the model. If you assume the crude projection is out by a factor of 10 it is still 3500 dying per day. Exponential growth produces huge numbers very fast even with best case scenarios.
Trump's latest thought bubble of having only a two to three week time frame before business as usual is like betting the house on a 20 to 1 longshot which is trailing the field coming into the straight. A breathtaking gamble.
Trump's impatience and obsession with the stock market means his latest "strategy" is risking him owning the blame for by far the greatest disaster in US history. For centuries to come he could be ridiculed for his approach to the great pandemic of 2020.
He has been amazingly successful at sidestepping blame and wrong footing opponents. But it will be hard to dodge this bigly avalanche of death.
I suspect he has looked at the outcomes in China and thought USA (and the Donald) is great and will beat them or follow their pattern but not fully grasped just how full on they are in locking it down and spotting and quarantining any suspected case. His voters base is highly vulnerable to illness especially if they follow his mixed messaging.
Will he pivot again or bet the house on a hunch?
If only the powers that be could forget about profits long enough to sort this nation out we might stand a chance.
If only the numbskulls who cant see the forest for the trees at how bad this virus really is, can actually use that peanut that is inside that numbskull, and act proactively towards trying to stop the spread and contain/eradicate this virus. We might stand a chance.
If only.......
Come on people? Why do you think we are insular to this virus? What do you believe will save, or stop us from having the same devastating results the other counties are facing? Complacency will cost us in many ways. I for one am not looking forward to seeing how ugly this thing is going to become, and that time draws nearer by the day.
Good luck to those who are prepared, and understand the severity. Heaven help those that are not.
This post from Chris is spot on! I also live in Spain in the north close to Mundaka and my wife is a nurse in Bilbao. I have copied and pasted a similar post to Chris which I did on fbk on the 23rd with more detail on what s happening in the hospitals. I was blown away from the response which made me realise that the majority of you have no idea how bad it really is here in Italy and Spain! The numbers have changed we now sit on 50,000 cases here in Spain with 3,600 deaths and most hospitals on the verge of collapse! Rushing to create makeshift hospital and ICU's as we speak. Morgues are full so bodies are being piled up in an ice skating/rink in Madrid. Shit is hitting the fan and if posts like this can convince 1 or 2 of you to do the right thing then its a win! Frustrating to sit back and see planned elections ,schools still running etc...not enough. Australia has 2,430 cases which is where we were 14 days ago. 5,500 health care workers have been infected! Take care and see yas on the other side!
Okay after a week in ‘Lockdown’ here in Spain and reading a lot of mis-informed, ignorant commentary from people back home in Australia I thought it was time to post about what is really going on here and why everyone back home should be getting themselves prepared and organised. And when I say prepared, I’m not referring to this ridiculous panic-buying which has been shameful to watch from afar and very un-Australian! Pull your heads in people!!
Anyway, I’m no medical expert, but my wife is a nurse and she is on the frontline at a hospital in Bilbao, northern Spain. She has witnessed it all first-hand and was coincidently posted in the pneumonia ward before the outbreak.They have had to send most patients from the ward home because they have no hope against the virus if they get infected!
I am going to try and break this down for all the ‘doubters’ out there and just to explain the importance of self-isolation. To fully understand the gravity of the situation just look at the timeline here in Spain. Up until early last week many of us, including myself, were still sceptical on the extreme procedures being implemented in China and Italy to combat the spread. Cases started popping up here and there in Spain and then suddenly they started multiplying exponentially. The start of the week on Monday the 9th March we had 1000 cases, by Thursday the 12th 3,200 cases and were told all educational facilities would be closed for 15 days. On Friday the 13th with 5,200 cases, I was let go from work indefinitely. On Saturday the 14th at 10pm, with 6,400 cases, the Spanish government declared ‘Lockdown’. Now, Sunday 22nd a week later, we are at 29,000 cases with 1,785 of these being treated in Intensive Care *I.C units around Spain and 1,720 deaths. Spain now sits 3rd globally for cases. So herein lies the problem…… we now have nearly 30,000 cases out of a population of 46 million. Insignificant as most doubters of the virus have been saying. However, Spain has a total of 3,200 I.C units. Some hospitals in the capital Madrid are already at full capacity! They are currently rushing to set up hotels and an exhibition centre to handle the predicted overflow of patients and an extra 100 ICU beds. Yes, most people in general recover and have mild or even no symptoms but for those 3%-5% who are mostly elderly or people with existing health conditions, it means serious and urgent medical attention. Do the math people! More cases, more patients in need of treatment and NO ICU’s!!! This is already happening in northern Italy where they have had to adopt ‘wartime’ procedures which means picking only the people they think are worth saving because they don’t have the equipment. In Australia there are just 2,229 ICU beds! That’s why we must ALL stay home and if you have to go out take precautions and distance yourself from others.
Here in Spain 12 % of infected cases are health care workers like my wife. The situation is that extreme that they have run out of basic safety equipment at her hospital! She has to wear a paper gown, which does nothing, and a mask which is not up to standard! Every time she comes home from work she has to jump into a plastic bag , not touch anything, put all her clothes in the bag, jump in the shower and then we cant go near her until we get the results from tests 2-3 hours later! On a personal level she can’t risk going near my father-in-law who is in the ‘extremely vulnerable category’ as he only has one lung and has had heart problems. A 51 year old nurse also in Bilbao and 2 young police officers *37 and 38 , lost their lives this week after becoming infected whilst working. Its not just the elderly with exisitng medical conditions!! Every night at 8pm everyone all over Spain heads out to their balconies and windows to clap and sing in recognition of the amazing effort of the nation’s medical staff!
Everything has happened so quickly that it still hasn’t quite sunk in!? We are living in this surreal state of enforced lockdown where you can only leave your home to go to the supermarket, the chemist, the rubbish bin or in a few (unlucky) cases work and only on your own. Strict measures but not enough according to Chinese experts who completely shut down the worst hit zones in China! We still have people working in some sectors, public transport, couriers etc however these experts have said we need to do more to successfully halt the spread like they have done in China and South Korea. In saying that, I would still like to applaud the Spanish government with the way they have handled this extraordinary situation. Yes, they have made mistakes, but they have been facing up and informing the public every day since day 1…Bravo from someone who has been a harsh critic of Spanish politics!! The good news back home is that Australia still has time and can learn from our initial mistakes by shutting everything down as of now before case numbers blow out!
People seem more worried about the 'how' and 'why' this virus formed?! Let’s worry about that later and fight the bloody thing first!! Australia WAKE UP and LOCKDOWN while you still have the chance!! It’s real, highly contagious and is going to grind the world to a halt for months to come. We need to stop acting selfish at the supermarkets, stop mass gatherings, support your health care workers, police, cleaners, supermarket staff etc, as they are the TRUE superheroes and the ones that are going to help get us out of this. All you have to do is sit on your arse at home for a month or two…..a small price to pay! Stay safe everyone, be patient, look after the elderly, help flatten the curve so our ICU’s handle and have faith in the lockdown ….Stay at home!!
Buenas noches.. Peace and take care!
Simon Murphy
Good write up DD, some facts from the frontline not just us rearguard speculators. Local beach cafe here still full this morning, carpark full of prados and 100k landcruisers with owners not worried at all by the looks of it, carpark at the point the same. #dumbcunts # soonsickcuntstoo, on ya AJ and Alex keep on making taking their money while you can instead of being responsible and giving a fuck about the community (as per normal) . #blow in rich cunts
Your second paragraph mate is spot on, I've been really impressed with the Spanish peoples response too, in a word, mature. So different from Australia, I agree it's embarrassing.
cheers terminal stay safe mate
Thankyou for your response Simon, my thoughts especially are with your hero of a wife who is on the front line, please keep the updates coming and Iet us know how you are going - look forward to hopefully seeing you at Mundaka when all this is over.
Good on ya Chris mate! Its so bloody frustrating seeing the lax repsonse back home. My family and friends are all clued in. Australia had a big chance and the help of hindsight to halt the spread. The kiwis are running rings around Oz!! Just made up a home made mask for the missus today to protect the whole face out of clear,plastic A4 card. She is shitting herself but doing her best. 10,000 health care workers infected all hospitals now collapsed and 'war footing' in place. Disconnecting patients over 65 to give respirators to younger healthier patients. I feel for those docs who have to go home every night and cry themselves to sleep when they are forced to play god on who live s and dies. Tke care Chris great article mate , stay safe in the south and defo come up and visit us Aussie ex pats at Mundaka when all this shit clears ....one day!
Scary, scary stuff Simon.
I take it they are different cunts than mikehunts. LOL
corona my ass, chinees are going to take over australia soon, all caucasians will be their slaves.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-backed-company-s-mission-to-sour...
Yep this is what happens when you have overseas ownership of assets.
Hey Maka2000 , mate not sure if you re taking the piss or you really believe that? Either way right now in Spain being worried about if its the Chinese, The yanks, CIA, New world order or the cunt on the grassy knoll it doesnt matter!! People are dying because they dont have a respirator. Look after your oldies!
Automatic Visa renewal if you wish to stay
RLZ in the Telos operating as normal and still excepting new guests
Slim from Baliwaves sounding flatter by the day on his daily report..lockdown with family to feed rent to pay with Nil income
"consider your options in the challenging period ahead"
Heavily loaded sentence, as it should be.
My return flight to Oz would have been a week ago had I not come back early.
People thought I was a fool for doing so at the time.
You wouldn’t want to be in Indo for this.
Thanks to Chris and Dick Dragger.
I’ve forwarded both your contributions to others and it’s been an invaluable aid for getting the message across.
Cheers
Cheers Blowin great stuff passing on the msg. Although I feel you guys have past tipping point now! so frustrating to see from a far!! Use common sense and stay away from the oldies or those with existing conditions. The Seppos thanks to that muppet are going to see a mass culling of biblical proportions ..they have a fucked healthcare system as it stands. Take care mate
Arriving from O.S. - its now 14 days Forced Isolation !
Amazing - wait for a mistake to happen, then implement the measures that would have prevented said mistake in the first place.
These people are out of their depth.
if only they had a crystal ball .... if only .... if only ....take care boys
If only they could have had examples where it had already happened to analyse and be proactive to avoid the same fate, ah, if only...
Simon, cheers for all your posts, they are invaluable, my best wishes for your wife working on the frontline, yourself and your family. Be safe.
Thanks mate...take care
Should have been done 6 weeks ago.
commandeering this thread here to ask the heads of Swellnet what their plan is beyond a simple message at the top of their forecasts, which in itself contradicts the advice by the government (state and federal) in relation to staying at home unless absolutely essential. In the words of Daniel Andrews in Victoria "Noone should be going to the beach. That is not an essential reason to leave the house. If I have to close beaches I will."...."all the messages, all the planning, all the effort from government and healthcare is worth nothing, if people do not do the right thing. Stay at home"...
I think you guys need to make some really tough choices, I don't envy you.
But you need to think about your role in this, because what we are seeing at beaches is directly linked to your service and your language in your forecasts. You can't control people. But your forecasts certainly are encouraging a large number of people to do the wrong thing.
Thanks
You say: "But your forecasts certainly are encouraging a large number of people to do the wrong thing."
I say: You'd be very surprised at how few people subscribe to Swellnet.
Yeah, it's a hard decision, but we've had just as many people tell us that even though they can't surf they like reading the forecasts and wish us to continue. They provide a mental salve in dire times. So what to do?
At the moment we're erring with continuing. I think people are big enough to make their own decisions, especially decisions of this magnitude, and I simply dont share the opinion that we're responsible for forcing people to ignore govt and health warnings as if they have no agency of their own.
This is all liable to change but that's where we are at the moment.
Postscript: My wife was just told there's already been a tripling of demand in refuges across NSW. I despair at people ignoring social distancing, but I equally despair at people who are going into this thing blind and haven't even thought through the consequences on the other side.
There are a great many people in Australia who can very easily go to a beach without even remotely going near another person. If denying them makes you feel better, then you need to question what sort of a person you really are.
Like I said, not an easy decision and I don't envy you. I'm completely aware of the mental health issues, but you are now drawing a connection between your forecasts, which you say not many people view, and the number of refuges being sort - which is confusing. The point I think you are making is that we need to be careful about our heads, as well as our lungs at this point. Agree.
You'd be surprised how many people look at your app, which for whatever reason gives you a 4 day outlook instead of a 3 day outlook for web based free loaders. And you'd be surprised how many people look at your forecast headline, the weather report and the comments to see ascertain whether it's worth going for a surf.
Also, completely agree with you about people who live at the beach, in remote locations and wouldn't see a soul. My parents, who are really likely to die if they contract this virus, are those people. To keep themselves sane they go for walks on the beach. Nobody else around. Except if people from out of town froth out and head for a surf on the weekend because the forecast looks good. I'm not advocating a ban on all beaches. I'm saying you have a responsibility to not encourage people to do the wrong thing - which at the moment is unfortunately as simple as moving around, unless it's necessary. Right now it's not necessary, sorry. I hope you reevaluate your position the next time you discuss it internally.
It's pretty clear to me. The government and experts are saying do not go out. And you guys are saying "Great waves on Friday along exposed locations"...
It's not personal. You guys offer a great service, and you have for many years. Kudos. This year is not like others. And it won't be like many others in the future. 1 year. Half a million lives.
No, I'm not making a connection between our forecasts and the state of refuges.
I've read that through three times and there's nothing implied, even unwittingly implied. I doubt that many people who've called into refuges would even surf.
That anecdote is, however, a canary in the coal mine for a looming problem, which will affect everyone, including surfers.
Why I mentioned refuges is that we're driving foot to the floor into a huge mental health crisis that will take many lives, and while we've all got our eyes on corona, no-one sees the black dog just beyond.
We have a small subscriber base, not all of them live in cities, some of them live in regional areas where it's very easy to go to a beach, retrieve some sanity, and then return home without crossing paths with anyone. We're not Italy, we're not Spain, we're not the US, we have a huge coastline. Just because people - such as yourself I assume - cant safely go to the beach doesn't mean others cant.
At present, we're speaking to those people.
And we're also speaking to the people who can't surf but want to retain their connection via forecasts.
If you don't want us speaking to you, then please tune out. This is our current decision, it may change, but it's what we're doing for now.
Stu,
I'm in the "please keep the forecasts up even if we can't surf anymore" camp - even though I'm not a subscriber. Every little anchor to normalcy is likely to be important in keeping the black dog at bay, any place where something other than the pandemic can be discussed.
Even a comment thread of "man, spot x is gunna be pumping, shame we can't surf" will be a welcome respite from wall-to-wall coronavirus.
Cheers Pops. It's fucken tough, Ben and I have had some brutal conversations, but we've also had some really nice emails, including one just now from a sometime adversary - G'day B!
Everything has taken on a different purpose lately.
i said you were talking about mental health. Which is a concern yes. If you want to go down that road let's do it.
What do you think the sight of half a million deaths in 6 months is going to do to the collective psyche? What do you think the sight of makeshift morgues in places i would normally take my kids is going to do to the collective psyche? What do you think having to send your partner, or you dad, or your mum, or your child to a hospital, and not being able to see them is going to do to the collective psyche? What if one of these people dies in hospital? You don't get to say goodbye. What will that do to the collective psyche?
Mental health is a big issue. But if we are weighing up whether the impact of the coronavirus or the impact of fewer surf forecasts is going to have a bigger impact on mental health I reckon the numbers might be stacked against your position that it's more important to give people some relief right now than it is to save lives.
How about Swellnet be an agile service? Like so many other business, why not offer something else? Pivot. You could replay pumping surfcams from days past. You could turn yourself, temporarily, into a movie streaming website, curating old surf movies or invite old celebrity surfers to curate a week's worth for people to watch while they do the right thing at home?
Adios, mate.
Take care of your family.
excellent stuff.
you too.
Fair point...hard choices to make. After the week I've had i would love a surf but i'm stuck in the middle...which way do you go with this?.
I'm not trying to sound righteous, but the thought of going for a surf right now, and in doing so either passing on a virus i didn't know i had to others, picking it from someone or something i touch and getting it or passing it on to my family, OR even just encouraging others to go surfing through my actions thereby resulting in any of these outcomes for someone else, completely ruins the idea of going for a surf in the first place.
I'm sucking it up and passing on 3ft surf in Victoria, listening to the experts, and staying the fuck at home so people don't die. Simple.
And I'd add another point to this conversation. Surfers are always looking to be included. Their voice - never heard. Their opinions - never asked. Their collective existence - never really recognised when tough decisions are made. Nick Carroll wrote a piece on Coastal Watch along these lines. Why weren't surfers asked about beach closures? Well, when you behave like a bunch of selfish entitled pricks with no respect for other people, when you ignore the advice of experts who are desperate to convey the urgency and importance of following advice and instructions, don't expect your opinion to be heard or even sort out.
Half a million Australian lives are at stake in the coming months based on the numbers and models. Many more will be sick for a very long time. All you have to do is give the ocean back its waves for a little while until we get on top of this thing.
It's honestly never been more simple or clear.
I don't think it's simple or clear at all.
How about you let us enjoy the positive things that occasionally present themselves to us hangingtomatoes? i think there are plenty of other articles and forums on this site where you can express your righteous views
You are sounding righteous mate and rightfully so. Tough times call for people to be up front and speak right up.
Making no apologies today.
Been no surf Perth last 2 weeks, some blown out 2foot swell today, rough as guts, it will clean up in the morning will be taking my boys for a surf, but will go to the dog beach or another south of where everyone will be, I think this is acceptable behaviour.
Keep up the surf reports Swellnet. Whilst I don’t really need them it’s a little slice of normalcy which I’m starting to crave. If you can watch a sexy girl walking down the street and manage to keep your hands to yourself , then you can read a surf report and not jump in the car with mates and crowd out a peak somewhere. Basic civility.
If everyone is sensible and responsible we will get through this deal as well as possible. In the meantime we are all living and have a mandate to stay as happy and healthy as we can under the circumstances.
Good luck everyone.
I'm intrigued on the half a million deaths thing. Just asking but I'm hearing a bit more on the different strains. TBB will no doubt be all over it???
We're up to nearly 500 cases in NZ and no one dead yet and only 2 in ICU. As each day goes by the sample size is rising and if it's a 3% death rate then we should have 15 gone. I noticed that the government is bringing the expected percentage back to 1% now so they must have some knowledge about that. Even 1% we should have 5 dead so I'm just asking? It's definitely not like Spain or Italy. Climactic or a different strain?
Spain and Italy have a higher aged population and their health system is running at over capacity. Basically old and vulnerable citizens are now falling over dead as there is no healthcare available to them.
This is why flattening the curve is so important.
When it hits 3rd world populations a younger demographic with higher death rates will start to emerge.
Partly because of what roadkill has said regarding the age of the population.
New Zealand has an average age of only ~37 compared to Italy's ~47. But it is also weighted by the dispersion of these population averages. Italy has almost a quarter of its population over the age of 65 with New Zealand less than half that amount.
Auckland and Wellington have much cleaner air than Italy, or pretty much any-where, so respiratory health will be better on average for New Zealanders.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/datablog/2017/feb/13/most-polluted-ci...
Close to a quarter of Italy still smoke tobacco compared to 16% in New Zealand.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ITA/italy/smoking-rate-statistics
The high density of older populations in Italy will quickly increase to overflow of critical patients in hospitals making the above exponentially worse for Italy compared to New Zealand.
tl~dr
Age / Pollution / Smoking / Aged population density all make Italy's mortality rate much higher than New Zealand's potential.
If you run the deaths as a percentage of confirmed cases you can clearly see where the health system overloaded and the percentage started to increase rapidly.
We are now starting to see cases of kids and teenagers being included in mortality rates.
And still dumb as fuck Australians party. ER depts have seen an increase in alcohol related injuries due to the dumb cunts isolating with their mates and stocking up on alcohol to help them through the pain...it’s so embarrassing for us as a country.