The Eddie goes onto yellow alert
The organisers of the Eddie Aikau Invitational have placed the contest on yellow alert for this Thursday (local time) while they assess an inbound XXL swell and local conditions. At this stage the swell looks to be of similar strength as the last swell that hit Hawaii when the Eddie was called on and then dissapointingly cancelled due to the swell running late.
From this vantage point the swell will meet the 20 foot threshold and it should arrive overnight in the early hours of Thursday morning meaning the competitors will likely wake with the swell ready to ride.
The big question mark are the local winds which are predicted to be strengthening from the north-east on Thursday.
Interestingly, the organisers have announced there'll be no 24 hour green alert. To give themselves the maximum amount of time to watch the swell - and perhaps avoid a repeat of the last one - the contest will only be given a green light on the morning of the contest. This means any invitee who wants to compete will have to make their way to Hawaii knowing it may not get the green light.
Swellnet will keep you informed on the swell's development.
Comments
Green light ? Just yellow hey . Wat is this for
Here's my forecast update Cam.. https://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/hawaii/2016/02/23/easing-xxl-swell-new-xxl-swell-thursday
Second time in as many weeks...
Green alert now
Really? That's odd.. Nothing on the 51101 buoy yet.
Swell's not due till Thursday, and Green, really, wow.
Looking big for this thurs
Interesting that they pressed the green light already, seeing that they emailed competitors on Monday (local) with the line "The call to GO will ONLY be made at the beach on Thursday morning".
Surely it's the safest PR route to take?
What if - and I don't think it can ever be ruled out - the swell is too early, or too late? Or too big?
Mixed messages there ! Its showing early with forerunners @22 sec , maybe bigger than modeled ! Brock would go
Swell arrival on target, forerunners have just hit the 51101 buoy..
And there's a J-curve..
so what's your prediction for tomorrow morning , as 18.7 ft @ 21 secs is huge no?
I'm thinking 25-30ft (larger offshore deep water reefs).
Swell will decay a bit while making its way towards the North Shore.
too big for the Eddie??
Nah I don't think so, probably a couple of close-out sets but that's it.
So it'll be on!
have you noticed that swells that arrive early tend to be bigger , and those that arrive late are smaller?
Yes totally, and that's because an early arrival of a swell indicates larger periods than initially forecast (creating faster travel speeds) which is a result of the storm being stronger than forecast.
Opposite if it's running late, as the swell periods aren't as large as were forecast and the storm not as strong.
This one seems only a couple/few hours late so on expectations I'd say.
Have you noticed this sharkman ?
Not so sure on the early/ late calls , as i haven't looked that much at surf forecasts here or elsewhere .
But interestingly if the Swell has reached peak periods then the lag of swell size upturn is usually some time after the forerunners . The above is suggesting that the period is still building as the upturn in size has been dramatic and also instantaneous with the period arrival . If so i would expect closer buoys to see higher periods on the forerunners . This is probably due to three things .
The length of the swell producing fetch , we were looking at more of a pressure grade pinch than compact intense cut off system . Yes it had both , but the direction projection of the system , its rate of overall expansion have lead to a good amount of captured fetch. The flank of the storm with the gradient pinch also pushed down further sth than pulling round the central system , and lastly the two lows (this and the one that produced the first onshore swell ) combined which elongated the captured fetch supporting winds .
Back to the period though , the forerunners have come in at a time of higher pre existing seas state, both period and size . The rapid rise in size confirms this . If i'm right and the swell period is still developing then the forerunners will arrive quicker than the normal travel time expected of a 22 sec swell and ontop of all this we will most likely see less lulls in this swell . Not so sure that a few of the older , more injury niggled competitors will find tomorrow to easy ..... And if those periods are larger then Peahi won't be easy to paddle either . regardless of how bad the wind will be . just a stab in the dark .
checking the buoys now looks like too big tomorrow all day??
26'@19sec, and then the other buoy is till coming up 22" @21 sec, which means its still coming up , way too big for the bay no?
Could be too big (!)... But they have green-lighted it. Just don't see why they didn't wait and let "The Bay Call The Day".
I have a hunch it might be to do with the CBS deal. Like, CBS wouldn't lock in the live deal unless they were committed to running.
they jinxed it by calling yellow . yellow/orange = caution/danger and all ....
forerunners arrived at Waimea buoy a short time ago . only 22 sec's but holding.
so what does that make it 8 hours ?
On track with model forecasts and yes growing swell period and travelling at that 22s range puts it in 8 hour travel time. Interesting to see tomorrow morning!
Rewind on the explore cam at dusk shows 3 ft shorey so around 2am the rumble of large sets should be heard....hoping big Ben Wilko gets a slot !
What stream site lads wsl? Got a cold carton and its friday..
Why does swellnets forecast says 25-30ft waimea but only 20-25ft jaws ?
How is the swell filling in for the eddie ? Bouy stats anyone ?
Hanalei. Buoy is starting slow in its rising trend . 20ft @ 20 sec.
Apparently the bay is closing out . Back to back closeout sets . Says it on @ surfline
Looks good, big raw and challenging!
The period is still a worry for them . Hanalei buoy is still reading 20 sec , but the size is wavering down towards 17 ft . Not sure we have seen the size peak though . Buoy 51101 is still hovering above 22 ft and only just dropping to 17 sec's . So I doubt they will get their ideal period . And consistency shall only increase till ATLEAST after lunch HAST . Going to be a tough day on competitors .
Ross and Kohl Christensen on a bomb!
What a let down. Really wanted to see big wave charger, JFlo take this thing out.
Twiggy got smoked!!
That wave of Twiggys was so heavy! Just realized but it's on Sky tv live in NZ. I'm going to be late for work
wow ..... Kala and Makuakai .... things might be a bit stern in the da hui camp in the next few days . crazy town .
Danilo obviously extra points for " the matrix " like wind mill swings ...... not pretty , or that steep but alot bigger than most .
Danilo's score of 91 just got adjusted to a 69... bring on the puns!
anyone else lost the coverage ? wsl site .
Nah still good for me.
all good , trying to work and watch . i think the computer had too many pages open .
Is it just me or does the commentary team not realise that RCJ is actually in the lead . ?!
I don't have the link to watch , fuckit
John john wins , rcj in 2nd ! Father son combo
I reckon RCJ's first wave of the comp was way under scored a 28?
Indeed very suss judging , I hope im mistaken but I just briefly saw the scores of job & dorians closeout & it was not right . Hopefully I read a mistaken post