Eddie is a no go
The old saying that "the Bay calls the day" cuts both ways, as Quiksilver found out this morning. Despite calling the Eddie Aikau Invitational on and spending a frantic 48 hours preparing infrastructure at Waimea Bay (see image at right), not to mention having surfers jet in from all points around the globe, the Eddie has been called off.
The required swell just wasn't there this morning. Wasn't even close. The swell appears to be running six hours late, and as it wasn't forecast to peak till the afternoon anyway, it means the biggest waves will roll in under dark tonight. It's the exact opposite of the last two swells which came in early.
From Quiksilver's press release:
“Unfortunately, the Bay is not going to call the day today. The surf is not what we expected,” Glen Moncata, Quiksilver Event Director, said. “What we need is need eight hours of solid 20 foot surf, 40 foot faces, and unfortunately this storm got pushed way up North of us, so we are just not going to be able to run today.”
Also, from the National Weather Service:
"The long period energy from the latest very large wintertime north-northwest swell arrived at buoy 51001 and 51101 earlier tonight. However, the swell height has been running 3 to 4 feet below the Wave Watch III model guidance. The Hanalei buoy also has a dominant wave period of 18 seconds in the most recent reading, so the swell has just arrived in the islands. This is approximately 6 hours later than expected. Therefore, we still expect the swell to build significantly across the state later today and tonight."
"Surf produced by this swell will likely increase to the high surf warning criteria along most north and west facing shores of the smaller Hawaiian islands later this morning. In addition, the energy from this swell will also likely reach both the west and north facing shores of the Big Island later today and tonight. As a result, a high surf warning has been issued starting at noon HST Wednesday for west facing shores of the Big Island, while a high surf advisory will be in effect starting at noon HST for north facing shores of the Big Island."
Comments
An expensive call to make. Gurus have they made mistakes this year, previous two swells were probably better?
This is a bummer man. That's a, that's a bummer.
Brandt will fill you in on the details.
Hey Craig and Ben - interested on your thoughts on how they got the call so wrong (given Quik's considerable financial outlay etc). Did this storm misbehave in terms of what was modelled, and what actually happened?!
Yes
Haven't had much of a chance to look at this swell in detail (not even before it was being generated either). However so far it seems to be filling in pretty close to our model's expectations.
As a gut feel, I suspect that the event organisers may have taken cues from the previous big swell event - which arrived earlier than modeled - and applied that thinking to this swell. Though, esteemed Hawaiian forecaster Pat Caldwell - whom I hold in the highest regard - upgraded this swell in his Monday notes (from the previous Friday), also expecting to see "a sharp uptick of surf heights locally near dawn".
Latest update from the National Weather Service (10am local):
"An anticipated large NNW swell is still building at buoys 51001 and 51101 this morning, with latest swell observations close to what was forecast. The caveat is that these swells were expected about 6 to 8 hours ago, both by our official forecasts, and by most model guidance. As has been the trend this winter, deterministic Wave Watch III guidance has been too fast in bringing the swells in to the islands. Also worth noting that buoy 51101 recorded a Max swell height near 19 feet at the same time that buoy 51001 reported closer to 15 feet. The 19 foot observations may have been spurious, but both buoys are now reporting sig wave height near 17 feet with periods between 16 and 19 seconds. Long story short, dangerously large surf can be expected along exposed N and W shores today and tonight, with high surf persisting into Thursday."
Due to the nature of big wave surfing maybe the criteria for the Eddie is a little rigid?
Could they have put the event on standby till this arvo and finished it off tomorrow morning? Although the swell is supposed to peak tonight from what I'm reading into this it sounds like it will be contestable this afternoon and in to tomorrow morning.
Just sayin'.
I'm with Ben, although the last two XXL swells were generated a lot closer, probably leading to that earlier than expected arrival time.
This storm was much further away, but still the swell has come in hours later than expected.
Current observations on the North Shore are solid but way under what was seen last two swell events as well.
Yes thats a definate factor the previous swells can built confidence or sometimes the opposite then wammo your tricked by mother nature again . Sounds familiar ?
Totally!
Dorian wasted no time slotted big time at Pe'ahi today...
Buoys didn't match up with the ol computer models........
and here i was spending most of the day wondering who might have won......lol!
I dont really understand why they just dont run it over 2 days if needed....everyone is already there and 1 extra day wouldn't make any difference logistically.