Oakley Pro Bali - Early Forecast
With Kelly the victor in Fiji (and also the new rankings leader) the ASP now moves the circus from one great wave region to another. And while they both boast high quality waves the differences are many; Fiji sees the world's best charging big barrels over unforgiving reef, while Keramas is best compared to a skate park throwing up everything from barrels to racing walls for carves and aerials.
The wave is unique in that it's exposed to the persistent trade-winds that groom swells bending into Bali's West Coast, although most mornings these onshore winds become calm creating clean glassy conditions. This is mainly a result of local land breezes developing as cold air descends from atop Mount Agung, a 3,000 metre high volcano to the north-east. Also, to a lesser extent, the islands to the south-east, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Penida, cast a wind shadow.
This is the inaugural year for Keramas on the World Championship Tour. It's scored an upgrade from the Junior event which has been hosted there - also under the auspices of Oakley - since 2010. With the break being situated on the East Coast of Bali, swells with more south in direction perform better than south-westerly swells which have to wrap in around the Bukit Peninsula. Subsequently Southern Ocean storms developing east of Heard Island projecting up towards the Western Australian coast develop the most size, but longer range energy filling in from the south-west still performs well.
With this in mind, the forecast for the opening days of competition are promising. Currently a strong, broad but patchy polar frontal system is moving through the Southern Indian Ocean, after developing south-east of South Africa yesterday. This progression will break down into tomorrow just north of Heard Island, sending a long-range inconsistent SW groundswell towards Indonesia.
The swell should arrive during the first day of the waiting period with Keramas expected to build to an inconsistent 4-5 foot. After an overnight peak the swell should drop slowly through day two from 4-5 foot and drop further from 3 foot on day three. Moderate to fresh east-southeast trades are expected through this period, but local land breezes should create clean conditions each morning.
A few lay days are likely on the back of the first swell ahead of the arrival of a new long-range S/SW groundswell later Friday and more so Saturday, day five of the waiting period. The polar low responsible for this swell won't reach any major strength and its short-lived nature will also limit size at Keramas to a very inconsistent 2 foot+.
Looking longer term, and there were indications of a large south-west groundswell event through the later stages of the waiting period, but recent updates have moved away from this. Instead, small-sized and very inconsistent long range south-west swell created near Madagascar is more than likely through the second half of the waiting period.
With this is mind we may well see the backup location of Canggu utilised as it's more open to incoming Indian Ocean swells and clean under the east-southeast trades.
We'll provide running updates on this in the comments below.// CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Why are they running the event at Keramas at this time of year? Onshore guaranteed after mid morning every day and needs a sizey swell to wrap around onto the east coast of Bali.
Just seems silly when you've got epic offshore all day waves on the west coast this time of year. And Canggu as a back up site? WTF? Again it gets crosshore by mid morning and it's not what you'd call an all time break?
Not sure Don, you'll have to ask Oakley. I suspect it's because they've developing a strong identity around Keramas with the Junior series over the last few years, so it's much easier to extend the continuity at the same break rather than start fresh at somewhere new.
If it blows out by lunchtime each day then that's effectively half the waiting period gone.
@ t-t-b-b
It is not "if" but when it blows out by lunchtime - at the very best at this time of year. If it is clean post 10am they are getting lucky. And Canggu? I am with Don. Pretty average considering what else is on offer. Oh well, on with the show.
Oh next year, the Formula One will be held on the backstreets of Western Sydney for better exposure. Stay tuned.
I wonder what they're expecting to do then? Can you surf through the onshores (good for airs) or are they just too strong?
Just run 6-8 heats every day from 7am and then you will get a couple of glass offs until 11 or 12. After lunch forget about it and piss off canggu not dream tour standards
Believe it or not, but they look to get rather light trades tomorrow for the start of the event, so they might just get lucky and run it tomorrow afternoon and into Wednesday morning.
Another pulse for next Tuesday also still looks on the cards, although with slightly more west of south in it, it may be a little more diluted bending into Keramas?
Yeah that trade-flow has pushed further south and west which is good.
The first pulse of long-range groundswell for next Monday will be SW but heading into Tuesday it should swing more S/SW, as the later part of the storm generating the swell will be east of Heard Island.
A better pulse of S/SW groundswell is due Tuesday afternoon, peaking Wednesday morning generated by a more favourably aligned frontal system forming directly north-east of Heard Island Friday morning, pushing towards Bali through Saturday.
This pulse looks to peak in the 6ft range later Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
Beyond this another similar pulse may follow Tuesday/Wednesday's swell into the final days.
still 2ft with odd 3ft today at keramas, trades got up hard after lunch. last night backed off heaps for the last 2hrs.
Cheers for the update Eamonn!
will they run the comp at night when the conditions are better it is able to be surfed under newly installed floodlights ,night surfing at keramas is that correct ?
the night surfing is a one show only kinda deal udo. winds backed right off on dark tonight craig, rain and storms here now, feels like its set the vibe.
Craig , the current MJO phase might have something to do with the trades " slacking " . Although this is more of a Fluke than Plan . Don's right , next swell is too west .
Yeah certainly southey, and yes the next swell will be west, but the ones following will be much more favourably aligned.
From my personal observations on the beach - surf was extremely inconsistent in the morning, but really fun 3-4ft. Built slowly during the day to 4-5ft, with a couple of 6ft sets scattered through the afternoon. Conditions were absolutely primo up until the hooter sounded for Round 1, then the trades kicked in - backing off only for the last two heats of the days.
There were long lulls at times but this is par for the course around here (the afternoon's incoming tide did give it a noticeable push).
Apparently next week has much better tides with a morning low, which means the tidal push (if there's a good swell running) will occur before lunch whilst there's no wind.
This is my first time seeing Keramas in the flesh, and I gotta say that as a wave it's certainly worth the hype. Wish I could have been out there.
Interim waiting period update: Braithy reports that "it's been overhead and bombing for the best part of the last 3 hours", however "the wind's getting up as of the last 30 mins, although it isn't half as strong as this time yesterday".
Strange that they put it on hold for such a long period of time - yesterday was moderate+ devil wind for nine of the twelve heats. We've still got 75 minutes until the next call too.
As for the rest of the waiting period - Surfline are calling for a new swell this weekend of a similar size as per yesterday's swell, but I can't see it happening (Craig forecast a very inconsistent 2ft+ last Thursday and I reckon that's still on the money).
However we're looking at a strong new swell filling in Monday, peaking Tuesday and then pulsing through Wed/Thurs that should deliver some really solid waves. At this stage Tuesday should push up into the 5-6ft+ range at Keramas on the tide, although we may see some slight model revisions over the coming days.
Either way I would expect tomorrow (Thurs) through Sunday to be lay days at Keramas. Word on the street is that Canguu is very unlikely to be considered at all.
Why on Earth did they make it 4 hours between calls? Hell of a lot can happen in 4 hours in indo especially on a day when there's swell (as today is). 4 hours means nearly half the day is gone.
Yeah I agree. I suspect they are working around the tides. Perhaps Braithy will find out more info on this today.
And we're ON for 2:30pm (following an Expression Session at 2pm). Braithy reckons there's a few sets nudging 6ft.
Huh? The announcers just said "we're waiting for an official call". Apparently it's still not confirmed to be on, even though they've had a graphic on the website stating a 2:30pm start.
And, everyone's waiting for the call - with Gabs and Willian sitting in the lineup with coloured rashies on, ready to go.
Meanwhile, the free surfing session is showing mindless barrels.
This is bizzare.
OK, we're on in two minutes. It's official.
Ben/Craig,
Latest thoughts on the week ahead? How big will the "big day" be?
We've actually got a series of big swells on the way. Size is expected to build Monday (prob 4ft sets through the afternoon) ahead of an initial peak Tuesday in the 6-8ft range. Wave heights will then ease a smidge Wednesday ahead of a bigger pulse Thursday and even Friday, probably in the 8ft+ range.
This size range is actually a little conservative compared to the model output (which is suggesting 8ft+ Tuesday and 10ft+ Thurs/Fri), but I don't have a lot of experience with specific Keramas forecasting - this upcoming swell event will be a good learning experience.
Its funny that the will hold it at Keramas on a Padang swell how times have changed.
Seems the ASP are now choosing venues to co promote certain newly built resorts.
Must be a buck in it for them.
Aloha.
I'm surprised that quite a few people expected Keramas to be on today - apparently the surfers were told a few days ago that they didn't have to check in Friday or Saturday (ie high confidence they wouldn't run), but they had to be present this morning for a possible start.
ASP Press release just came through: "Surf hasn’t increased as projected and is still quite small."
New swell should start showing tomorrow morning - the tides are very favourable during the morning, and this may also give it a nudge ahead and above model forecast predictions (which expect a peak in the afternoon). However, whether the ASP choose to run tomorrow will depend on what size they think Keramas will work best on. We've got at least three days in the 6ft range or bigger expected within the remainder of the waiting period, in which two of those days (Thurs/Fri) should be in the 8ft+ range. Even Wednesday should be solid, which makes four days of strong surf.
There are still 27 heats to run, which means 14 hours of competition (allowing for a break between the Semi Final and Final), so they could technically finish the event with two days of seven hours each.
If the trades increase each afternoon and spoil the surf, then they could do split it into three days (Round 3, Round 4/5, Finals) - they'd be capitalising on the early tide push as well as the morning's glassy conditions. But at this stage the trades are not meant to be very strong for the remainder of the period, so there is a good chance they could run whole-days if necessary.
In any case, my pick: Round 3 Tuesday, Round 4 and 5 Wednesday, Finals Thursday (three consecutive days means good continuity from a media point of view). Then they still have Friday and Saturday up their sleeve as a backup.
Will be very interesting to see how big the surf is tomorrow. I'd kill for a wavebuoy off Christmas Island to track this incoming swell!
That may very well be true Lopez, but there's no doubt that Keramas is a bloody unreal wave and a worthy inclusion on the ASP World Tour. It's (surprisingly) more consistent and reliable than many other waves in Bali too, even with the threat of the trades each day (which have been fortunately light in strength). And to be honest without the resort infrastructure in place I think they would have a lot of difficulty staging such a large event here.
Not sure I agree with you saying its a unreal comp wave.To me and I have surfed it a bit its a takeoff, barrel and one cut back.
Goes onshore at 10 o clock. Maybe TC has got fans as well as flood lights.
Iam more interested in the Ulus Legends contest.
Aloha.
Word on the street Keramas is just one foot this morning. So the new swell obviously hasn't started to show yet.
Canggu is around 3ft right now, light onshore but there are definitive lines of new swell here. It's been building for the last hour and a few sets are starting to nudge 4ft. Certainly is a patience game waiting for this new swell!
Tuesday was always gonna be when the juice arrives!!!
Winds look damn good too.
Will they run it Tues/Wed or wait for even more juice Thurs/Fri? Although according to surfline, they reckon Keramas can't handle the swell inbound for Thurs/Fri, which again begs the fcking question as to why they are running the event there? Padang would be all time come Thurs/Fri!!!
hmmm ,
Padang !!!
Full Moon waning , me thinks Speedies could have been OOOOONNNN .... for Thurs/Fri .
Whilst i " may " have your Attention Don , ...
Whats your take on this system potentially forming off Central/South QLD mid next week ....
" Northey " , i shall be for next week .....!
Don, Keramas holds 10ft and more according to local sources.
And we're on. Braithy reckons there's a couple of 6ft sets there this morning, and it's absolutely perfect. Should be a great day of viewing.
Southey, to be honest I haven't been looking at the charts for home this week as I'm about to head to NZ Friday for a week so mainly been concentrating on the charts for over there.
Bloody IT at work still won't let me watch it......luckily I'm "working from home" tomorrow!!!
How's the wind over there Ben?
No wind right now, just light and variable. Still bloody clean. Very inconsistent though (just came in from a surf at Sanur where there were 30 min breaks between sets).
And there we have it. Pumping this morning with a serious pulse on the tide (or was that the swell rising Ben?). Did you notice the solid break of sets right on high during Slaters heat? What gives? That was more than a lull surely.
I've heard the same thing on the beach re: size and holding, should be interesting. Wondering whether Friday would be the best day for the final, either way the surfing then will be nuts, comp or no comp.
Local winds don't look good for Friday unfortunately, unless the just hold the final at dawn?
Gee, the guys surfing late arvo yesterday (ie Jordy) must feel ripped of. Conditions were average at best.
Let's hope they run as much of the event today, but as soon as conditions deteriorate, call it off and run the remainder first thing tomorrow morning.