Long Wave Trough - The Second Coming

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Victorian surfers have just come off the back of one of the worst summers in recent history, thanks to persistent south-easterly winds and small swells. But now with the change of seasons the Southern Ocean has fired up in a big way; an oversized south-westerly groundswell is expected to make landfall this Friday and Saturday.

If you remember back to July last year, Tasmania, Victoria and the whole East Coast of Australia fell under the effects of a large, prolonged episode of southerly swell. This swell event also made it up to Fiji with Cloudbreak literally falling out of the sky, throwing some of the biggest barrels seen anywhere on the planet. Click here for the images.

This exceptional run of large swell was all due to the Long Wave Trough (LWT) stalling and intensifying just east of Tasmania and across the southern Tasman Sea. The workings of the LWT are explained in this article.

Some nine months later we are seeing a similar scenario developing across south-eastern Australia, although this time the LWT is intensifying just west of Tasmania instead of just east.

Putting it simply, the LWT is a primary steering mechanism for Southern Ocean frontal systems. With the LWT now amplifying over the south-east corner of the country, we can expect a significant frontal progression to push northwards from polar latitudes, up towards South Australia and Victoria. Winds speeds are expected to reach 50kts for much of the storm's lifespan, which will generate a very large groundswell for the southern states.

While the swell should build strongly through Friday a peak is expected just before dawn on Saturday morning. In Victoria, Bells and Winki are likely to peak at 8-10ft, whilst Victor Harbor in South Australia should also offer similar sized waves. While the predominant synoptic wind will be south-westerly on Saturday morning, the cooler air mass seen on the western side of the LWT should help to create a localised westerly land breeze across both regions at dawn.

Excellent waves should also persist into next week with the LWT moving only slowly to the east, causing secondary fronts to be aimed into Victoria's swell window throughout the extended period.

What does this mean for the Rip Curl Pro though? While it's too far out to make any solid predictions, another node of the LWT is forecast to move into place by the time competition gets under way so hopefully we're in for a similar episode of good swell and winds to last year.

//CRAIG BROKENSHA

Comments

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 2:16pm

Craig, if I recall correctly from your last LWT article, the LWT forecast charts are based on the GFS model? So my question is with respect to your last paragraph in the article above.......how reliable are the long range LWT charts, particularly considering the instability in the weather models at present due to the active monsoon trough/MJO combination moving across the maritime continent.

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 2:24pm

Hi Don,

The broader scale atmospheric patterns are much easier and more reliable to forecast than smaller scale surface features.

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 2:29pm

Thanks Craig.

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donweather Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 2:29pm

BTW - Who's forecasting for Ripcurl this year?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 2:44pm

Not sure Don, we're not though.

schmicka's picture
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schmicka Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 3:02pm

me thinks a little island south of the mainland is going to get this swell as well.

barley's picture
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barley Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 7:01pm

Just wondering does the LWT only happen over near victoria where would it be positioned in relation to SA and how often does that ever happen?

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 7:46pm

The title is a little misleading as this isn't the second time the LWT has come around since last July.

The LWT is actually a permanent feature that rotates around both the north and south poles continuously.

It has a number of points of intensification that are called 'nodes' and can vary between 2-5.

Image 3 shows the view of the south pole currently with the LWT having around 4 nodes (pronounced areas of blue/orange)

The LWT rotates slowly around the earth like storms do from west to east.

It can intensify over any part of the mid-latitudes but it's just that this time it's intensifying across south-eastern Australia resulting in the storms to be aimed into that area.

If it stalled over the Great Australian Bight then SA would receive the focus of any developing storms and if it's over south-western WA then Western Australia will see the focus of swell energy.

It's also worth noting the dips in the LWT (with one sitting just east of New Zealand). This is where storm activity is suppressed and aimed away from that region. When there is discussion of a 'large blocking high' this is the upper atmosphere weather feature associated with it.

Basically storms will follow that blue/white contour around the Southern Ocean with some swells being aimed north-eastwards and others away to the south-east and towards Antarctica.

Sorry for the long post but I hope this helps a little.

barley's picture
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barley Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 at 9:09pm

Thanks for that info craig. So it has a kind of rollercoaster pattern the whole time? SA is known for its blocking high patterns. With more intensive low pressure cells then the blocking high gets pushed North East? Man it seems like forever since that has happened?

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Craig Wednesday, 21 Mar 2012 at 5:58am

Yeah exactly like a roller coaster pattern through the westerlies.

Now during Summer there is also a semi permanent blocking pattern set up across the Bight, because all the hot rising desert air in central Australia causes low pressure over central Australia and this is balanced by more stable high pressure to the south.

So this would also play a role in not letting the LWT intensify as it approaches from WA, but there are many other factors as well that we are still learning about.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 26 Mar 2012 at 2:13pm

Craig, any update on the LWT charts for the waiting period timeframe?

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 26 Mar 2012 at 5:02pm

Hi Don, we'll have a forecast update soon so keep your eyes peeled!

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 26 Mar 2012 at 9:07pm

Thanks Craig. I ended up finding the LWT charts myself although I could only find them out to 2 April. Do you have access to longer range LWT charts?

From what I could see the LWT charts were showing some quite zonal looking charts up to 2 April, rather than the more SW/NE charts that you've shown above for good swell to get into Bells?

southey's picture
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southey Monday, 26 Mar 2012 at 9:30pm

Guys , I haven't looked at the charts today , and i only briefly looked at WZ /access yesterday .

But i would be saying that the Bells contest will see Good " Solid " waves at soem point in the waiting period .

Unlike the rest of this post , the LWT ( from what small amount of charts i've seen ) will not be parked in the " zone / window " that you've posted above . But as I've posted elsewhere a long W , WSW and even WNW can give good conditions to Bells , especially if winds in Bass Strait are light .....
Often an elongated low will deliver a strong Fetch on its Northern boundary and then rotate the strongest quadrant around the low and do a second revolution to " pick up the Initial swell and intensify / redirect it . OR
In saying this a rather large W swell maybe on the cards during the next few weeks , so all in Adelaide may get all lubed , but of a differing scenario . I can see a pattern evolving that will most likely deliver a DS " paddle/tow swell . A large long range west being amplified and redirected up with a cut off . All with light local winds ...... Time will tell . Could be another May 2010 scenario Craig .... Maybe SS's/Ben might want to look closer to home for their next tow session @ BoBOM . Either way I'd be staying on hold for a Significant swell ( and offshore winds ) in the next month or so ......

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southey Monday, 26 Mar 2012 at 9:47pm

maybe this confirms the Stall and rotation of Cut Off's energy around the fast advancing LWT Pulse .

I know you guys are EC , worshippers ( and for north of 25 S i can understand why ) but down in the 40's S , i would still say GFS is probably the best up to 6 days out .

" https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&are..."

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Craig Tuesday, 27 Mar 2012 at 10:26am

Don, initially no the LWT won't look and be as positioned above, it will be focussed into WA resulting in W'ly swells, but as Southey mentioned, the storms for Bells don't have to come from SW to NE.

A broad and significant fetch of polar westerlies can produce swells just as significant if they pile up one after the other.

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 27 Mar 2012 at 11:00am

Thanks Craig. Do you have access to long range LWT charts?

So based on your response, you're saying it doesn't really matter where the LWT is positioned so long as the fetch is long enough to creat a big enough swell then it will get into Bells anyway?

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 27 Mar 2012 at 11:34am

Not entirely Don. With the LWT positioned over southern WA it isn't ideal at all, especially for Bells regarding the westerly swells created from this setup.

What I was pointing at is that the LWT doesn't have to be amplified directly into south-eastern Australia. It can take a more zonal approach and still produce good swells, as long as that zonal flow is south-west of Victoria.

And you can generate the LWT charts here http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_gfs0.5.sh just plot the no5WAVH500mb component. There's also an ensemble forecast here.. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_shsm_animation.html

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 27 Mar 2012 at 1:09pm

Thanks Craig. That's where I found the charts yesterday also, but I was surprised that there wasn't any long range charts as your original article implied that the next round/node of the LWT was anticipated to come back around to SW of Vic around the start of the waiting period, hence I assumed you had access to longer range LWT charts??

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 27 Mar 2012 at 1:15pm

Just looked at the latest GFS models and bugger me there's a solid W'ly swell forecast for next week, so I guess some of that has to refract into Bells. Is the local wind gonna spoil it somewhat though?

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Craig Tuesday, 27 Mar 2012 at 1:20pm

Ah, no, nothing longer-range than those charts but you can imply where the LWT will be if you know how fast it is moving and where it looks like it is focussing.

I was using my own intuition as well as these charts to make that call, and it looks to be lining up nicely.

ando's picture
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ando Wednesday, 28 Mar 2012 at 4:01pm

hey Craig...I have a theory I want to throw at you.....Of all the places to long range forecast, Bells is one of the hardest.....the long range charts can go all weird a few days out and what often appears epic 5 days ahead, can turn bad....I don't know why...but it's way more dicy that long range for the likes of open ocean islands like tahiti/Fiji and Hawaii...where their actual swells occure thousands of klms north or south and are done deals 4 days prior...giving a 6 or 7 day forecast much more reliability? .....what gets projected to happen in the Bight often alters last minute...drops, changes intensity --- gets effected by stronger or weaker moving highs..etc

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 28 Mar 2012 at 8:29pm

Hi Ando,

Your thoughts are right in some aspects, but I would say the southern states are a lot easier to forecast for than the Australian East Coast by far.

With the southern states such as SA and Vic, although unlike Indo and Hawaii where the storms are as you say created 5 days ahead, you still usually get a good 2-3 day difference between when the swell is created and when it is expected to arrive. So all you're forecasting for is it's arrival time, peak in size and local winds at that time.

At the moment we are seeing a trickier forecast with a couple of cut-off lows pushing through the Bight, but the only real tricky times forecasting for Vicco is under these W/SW swells as a small change in the storms latitude north or south can make a big size difference at Bells.

Also it comes down to how well each different model is treating the forecast in the medium to long term. If it's a stable and predictable pattern, swells can be predicted nearly a week in advance with some accuracy, as was this swell last week. If they diverge more than a few days out then that's where things become really tricky.

southey's picture
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southey Wednesday, 28 Mar 2012 at 10:36pm

Craig ,

Are you guys seeing the goods , i was talking of the other day inregards to forecast around the Easter period , or are you guys staying stum , so you don't benefit any " opposition " that might be forecasting the Bells Event ... ?

Ando , Overlapping , redirection , rejuvenation swell and local winds are the biggest uncertainty's especially at the moment " at the end of a La Nina wet season " . The other thing thats playing with local winds and patterns including Cut Off 's is a Stronegr Leeuwin current and warmer SST's in the bight . But once typical Autumn patterns set in then as Craig says the Southern / Western side of the Continent is the easiest . And can become adnauseum how easy it is .... In the past everyone just used to look at forecast winds then , head to region then access swell / tide select spot . Obviously everyone gets all hung up on Swell interval / peak ( new swell ) and more technical stuff . I like the simple ones , like if its snowing Go to P , or in Tas S M and so forth .....

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Thursday, 29 Mar 2012 at 9:04am

Yeah, it looks impressive Southey. A lot of west in the swell though, which will heavily influence wave heights at Bells. We'll have a forecast out today.

goodes's picture
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goodes Thursday, 29 Mar 2012 at 10:53am

Hi Guys,
I have a simple question from a 51 year old surfer, been at it since I was 10. What has happened to the good old howling NW winds with vigorous fronts embedded in them swinging wind from NW to SW then to the classic "bubble high" glass off only to repeat again every 3-4 days???

I believe we have heated up the atmosphere, High pressure systems are lower and not the classic round shape they used to be, cold fronts rarely come from the deep Antarctic through to us. They raise up under WA then slip SE under us, never used to. Am sick of these (warm) sub tropical "cut off" lows masquerading as "cold changes"

Do I have the classic older guy "warped memory" or do others see the changes?

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Craig Thursday, 29 Mar 2012 at 1:21pm

Hi Goodes,
The circumpolar westerlies move southward and northward (along with the mid-latitude high pressure belt) in response to another atmospheric phenomena known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

The SAM basically is an index showing how far the westerlies push north towards Australia, or south towards the South Pole. A high(positive) index indicates a poleward shift in the storm track and a low(negative) index indicates the opposite.

Now here is a graph of the last 50 years showing the SAM through stages of the year http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q10/sasurfa1/Screenshot2012-03-29at11...

You can see there's been a gradual increase in a positive SAM index over the last 50 years and this means that the polar westerlies have been contracting to the south (away from Australia) more than they've been pushing north.

So your thoughts could be justified from this graph, but it's hard to say especially without real time running data of the last 50 years wave observations to confirm or deny.

Interesting stuff!

goodes's picture
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goodes Sunday, 1 Apr 2012 at 2:51pm

Thanks Craig,

The SAM seems to vindicate my theories and perception over last 20-30 years. Am a firm believer in man made warming, its a shame others do not see or feel these changes. There is a very large Sand Dune (in a Nullabor town, cant remember the towns name)that moved from West to East has apparently changed from East to West for the first time since records were kept, another sign I believe in the West to East change brought on by over heating.

One last theory for the Forum: those fronts that do raise up from the Antarctic not only hit warmer / stronger Highs but get negated / weakened / shoved by Positive ions emitted by the plethora of Radio / Micro / Satellite waves etc etc generated by the multitude of communications bandwidth all over (populated) Southern Australian regions. What do you think?

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 1 Apr 2012 at 3:55pm

That town is Fowlers Bay.

The town was starting to be engulfed by the sanddunes but now with all the strong E/SE winds associated with high pressure ridges in the Bight is sending it back to the west. Fascinating and if you go to Google Earth and look at the timeline/history feature you can see the difference over the last 10 years or so on the south-west corner of the town!

Now regarding Radio/Micro/Satellite waves blocking weather features and systems pushing north, sorry I have to say there's no way this could ever happen. Weather is related to differing air masses colliding/interacting while these radio waves etc move through these airmasses without making any impact on them at all.

Gotta say though, that's the most out there and inventive theory I've ever heard, haha :D

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poncholarpez Sunday, 1 Apr 2012 at 4:24pm

with radio waves etc effecting the weather, google HAARP. This has been discussed at length on the weatherzone forums with some nutters trying to say that beams coming from rain radars were causing TD's to stall and helping them spin up by holding them back to make them into cyclones (RE: TC Heidi in the NW WA). They were saying that scientists were doing this on purpose

I myself believe the person who wrote those comments about the beams etc simply couldnt find their tinfoil hat that particular morning.

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batfink_and_karate Monday, 2 Apr 2012 at 3:25pm

"Some nine months later we are seeing a similar scenario developing across south-eastern Australia, although this time the LWT is intensifying just west of Tasmania instead of just east."

Yes, a crucial piece of information that, to the east coaster.

intensifying just west of Tasmania.

What good is that, I ask.

And who cares about Bells, my eyes are firmly fixed on getting in the water from east Friday onwards.

Send me some of these offshore days, with a nice east swell, or any swell quite frankly.

I'm thinking I'm going to go surfing my brains out.

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Craig Monday, 2 Apr 2012 at 3:42pm

Ah but you see Batfink, we wouldn't be getting this persistent easterly swell if the LWT was positioned east of Tassie, like it will be early next week.

With the LWT currently to the west it's setup a blocking pattern in the Tasman Sea, with weather systems prevented from being pushed off to the east and instead stalling in our swell window for days and days.

When the LWT is east of Tassie, that's when we get those prolonged southerly swell episodes.

Give me the current setup over southerly swells any day!!

barley's picture
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barley Wednesday, 4 Apr 2012 at 10:06pm

Fuck yeah this LWT is the shit.2 weeks of waves everyday and it keeps going. I need a good days rest(not)! this is what lifes all about. Warmish water too! How long can this last?

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 17 Apr 2012 at 3:57pm

Could any of you learned fellows hazard a guess as to where the LWT may be positioned with respect to the east coast of Australia around the first weekend in May please?

Whilst I appreciate it's still some way off, any predictions would be greatly appreciated.

Also, what impact does the LWT in the vicinity of the Tasman Sea have with respect to the formation of ECL?

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Craig Tuesday, 17 Apr 2012 at 5:26pm

Hi Don,

Sorry mate but that is nearly 3 weeks away and I couldn't say where it would be positioned.

With regard to the position of the LWT in the vicinity of the Tasman Sea and ECL formation.

You would need the LWT to be very slow moving, with a break off pool of cold air from the LWT sitting just west or off the Australian East Coast.

Just having the LWT moving through the area won't help in the generation of ECL's and will instead produce a southerly swell episode, but if the LWT stalls or sees a cold pool break away, thats when the likelihood of an ECL is increased. Warm SST's also help.

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 17 Apr 2012 at 7:44pm

Thanks Craig for the quick response. Greatly appreciated. I figured it was still too far out to have any real confidence, but I recall you saying that you could predict where it would be based on the latest charts and the anticipated westwards speed/movement of it.

So with respect to ECL, essentially the LWT isn't the real driving force/factor behind their formation?

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Craig Tuesday, 17 Apr 2012 at 7:54pm

With the current setup the next node of the LWT is fairly weak, but then next one beyond this is even trickier to see. So that last episode with the large swell before the Bells contest and then the large swell for WA and SA during Bells was much easier to pick a couple of weeks out due to the defined nature of the next node moving in.

With ECL's I would say that the LWT and related cool air are a big driver. Without that cold upper atmosphere air you won't get the surface disturbances feeding and deepening into as deep and powerful lows.

It's the movement of the LWT that will either foster the development of the ECL or prevent it depending on how quickly it moves east. Still learning in this area though.

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thermalben Tuesday, 17 Apr 2012 at 8:00pm

Don, there's a really interesting paper that goes into detail about this, titled "Large-scale indicators of Australian East Coast Lows and associated extreme weather events", from The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CSIRO/BOM).

www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_037.pdf

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Craig Tuesday, 17 Apr 2012 at 8:17pm

Awesome link Ben!

So it looks like the upper level atmosphere cut-off low is the major driver as I mentioned in the first post, but how these systems form over western or central Australia is a question?

Do the cut-offs form when a strong intensification of the LWT moves over southern Australia, further north than normal? I'll have to have a talk to the crew at Weatherzone.

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freeride76 Tuesday, 17 Apr 2012 at 8:43pm

Most pertinent to this study is the indication that there is
a tendency for preferred frequency of upper cut-off lows over central northern NSW and central
southern Queensland. This is consistent with the results presented in Ndarana and Waugh
(2010), and following the arguments in Risbey et al. (2009) might be attributed in part to this
region lying under the poleward exit of the mean position of the wintertime subtropical jet,

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freeride76 Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 at 8:16am

There's kind of precursor situation right now with the sub-tropical jet dipping and pinching off a small eddy (the upper level low over NSW)....together with the surface trough off the NSW/SEQLD coast.....a nice pre-mix of ingredients that won't quite bake the cake.

donweather's picture
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donweather Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 at 10:34am

"a nice pre-mix of ingredients that won't quite bake the cake.
.."

Just wondering why it won't bake the cake? Is that because the LWT isn't feeding enough cold air into the uppre level low and/or surface trough?

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freeride76 Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 at 10:37am

I think so.

not quite enough vorticity between the interacting air masses.

Ben? Craig?

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Craig Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 at 11:03am

I just don't think as Steve said there's enough consolidation and rotation in the upper low.

A deeper cold pool with a more defined rotation is due to move across the East Coast Thursday next week and this could spin something more substantial up..

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donweather Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 at 12:45pm

OK, thanks guys. Great paper you found there too Ben. Thanks for the info.

And yeah Craig, I saw the models are alluding at some low pressure developments potentially off the NSW south coast late next week.

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donweather Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 at 1:00pm

Meanwhile......ya gotta love semi-staionary flat top high pressure systems!!!! :)
..

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donweather Monday, 23 Apr 2012 at 10:46am

Anyone like to provide any further assessment of where the LWT may be positioned next weekend (first weekend of May)?

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Monday, 23 Apr 2012 at 12:05pm

Ben, Craig, Steve, Don. All really interesting stuff but find it a little difficult to fully get my head around it all. It obviously has bearing on the swells we receive on the southern coasts and up into all the open oceans to Indo, Pacific Islands etc.
This is a little off the subject but quick question to ask you forcasting guru's.
I'm off to Fiji next week for 2 weeks. I know it's a bit away for an acurate forcast, but how's it looking surf and wind wise???

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donweather Monday, 23 Apr 2012 at 12:24pm

Fitzy, I'd say if the latest GFS charts come off (noting the divergence between EC and GFS, particularly with respect to the Tasman low later this week), then you'll have no shortage of back to back SW groundswells from what I can see. Anything between 4-6ft+, potentially bigger towards the end of your first week if the fetch off the Antartic comes to fruition early next week.

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fitzroy-21 Monday, 23 Apr 2012 at 12:31pm

Thanks Don. Sounds great. Will let you know how I go when I get back. Thanks again.

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southey Monday, 23 Apr 2012 at 5:59pm

Don's onto it . There is potential for a 18-20 sec. Long Wave Trough originating swell to be carried into the Tasman Thru a Gap in Easterly flow , and then a Second ??? potential Lower tasman ECL /front to really give it a helping hand . Note that like alot of the last few months LWT swell events they have seemed to piggy back on each other . SO a very good time to Go Fitzy . As for conditions over there , well i presume they've recovered from the Floods .?

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batfink_and_karate Tuesday, 24 Apr 2012 at 9:57am

Wow, that's a substantial piece of low pressure in the south forming up, and as southey says, on that back of a more local low off the east coast.

Freaking huge. Fiji must be in for something.

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donweather Tuesday, 24 Apr 2012 at 1:53pm

Geezus, the models have certainly upgraded that fetch off the Antarctic that I was referring to yesterday. If that monster comes to fruition, Fitzy, I'd be taking the biggest fecking board you have and then some more!!!!!!!!!

We are talking serious swell if that animal comes to fruition!!!

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braithy Tuesday, 24 Apr 2012 at 5:40pm

Brass nuts, jet skis and prayer beads.

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Craig Tuesday, 24 Apr 2012 at 5:43pm

Hi Don, regarding the LWT during the first weekend of May it looks like we'll see a more ridgey pattern across south-eastern Australia and the Tasman Sea with one node of the LWT focussed west of WA and the other east of Tassie.

And Fitzy, that swell for next week in Fiji looks good but it will be a quick up and down pulse due to the cut-off nature of the low generating it. What is ideal for Fiji is front after front pushing up through the gap between Australia and New Zealand into the Tasman Sea. This system will be more just an intense low with no real great fetch length behind it or longevity but the core wind speeds should still generate a solid swell.

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southey Wednesday, 25 Apr 2012 at 9:05pm

Guys ,
Was interested to see your post on the Facebook page of impending Swell arrival ....

I think the " locals " are restless on the " surf coast " .....

Surely size would only detract from crowds in the water in that neck of the woods ... I know everytime its been solid and I've been there , the only issue is parking and getting thru the rubber necks to access the water ....

Regardless , maybe the technical stuff , should stay on the main page . So members can see and discuss , and leave the Froth photo's for the Mass's .......
I know a friend on facebook , ( to my memory has never surfed ) that has your posts plastered all over his page and shares everything .... Congratulations on far reaching audience , BUT i've stopped posting /commenting anything in that avenue in fear of upsetting other friends ... ROCK / SOUTHEY / Hardplace ....

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thermalben Thursday, 26 Apr 2012 at 5:33am

southey, the FB post said "Incoming! We've got a big swell due across the southern Australian coastline this Sunday. Check your local forecast for the latest details. Or, you can animate the swell charts here"

Southern Australia is everywhere from the South Coast of WA, through SA, Vic and Tas. No specifics were given (nor in the written forecasts either) - certainly not for the Surf Coast, which is likely to be onshore for this swell.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Friday, 27 Apr 2012 at 10:33am

Hey Guys,

Thanks for taking the time to reply. Have been away for a few days.

Heading off in a couple of days and am pretty keen to hear some good swell on it's way. I gotta say though that I don't mind admitting if it's Huge I will be content to sit in the channel taking photos and watching hell men. No heroics here, I know my limits.

Will be there for a couple of weeks, so I'm sure the window will be there for some good surf inside the HUGE/MASSIVE range. Again, I appreciate you all taking the time to fill me in with the forcast.

Cheers

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stunet Friday, 27 Apr 2012 at 1:22pm

Hey Fitzy!

If you score any good snaps we'd love to run them on Swellnet. Hope you have a great trip.

Stu

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Craig Friday, 18 May 2012 at 11:50am

Just bringing this back to the fore as later next week we are going to see another significant intensification of the Long Wave Trough across south-eastern Australia.

A large swell is on the cards for Tassie, and Vicco later Friday/Saturday next week due to an associated strong cold outbreak, with a pool of cold air likely to be shed off in the upper atmosphere.

Southern NSW is likely to see at least a medium sized S'ly swell event around Sunday as the upper cold pool spawns a surface low, and this is where forecasting the LWT comes in very handy for long range surf forecasting.

Being over a week away we have a fairly high confidence regarding this swell episode and also this relays onto a possible good swell for Fiji the middle/end of the following week (30th May) some 12 days away if the LWT remains strong while pushing slowly east towards New Zealand!

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the-pharmer Sunday, 20 May 2012 at 2:18pm

Hey Craig,
the-pharmer wants to know your thoughts on what size and direction the swell for the central coast wed/thurs !! Last time around we copped a decent swell and some useful rain!!.Which would be rather handy, Any idea if there is any northern inflow of moisture to interact with this rather intense low?? Giv us a guestimate of rainfall in the cyp areas and the-pharmer may reward you someday!! haha

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Craig Sunday, 20 May 2012 at 7:42pm

Hi pharmer, looking good with this swell having a couple of embedded pulses. The first will be SW and build late Tuesday, peaking around 4-5m out in the open ocean off the YP on Wednesday morning, with a secondary midday/afternoon pulse out of the SW again coming in around 5m.

Drop in size through Thursday and further through Friday. The moisture isn't from the north, it's from the south associated with this strong cold outbreak. Again I'm not the one to forecast rain but probably around 10-15mm at a guess.

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donweather Monday, 21 May 2012 at 1:14pm

Yes, have been watching the long range charts for the last 3-5 days now to see what might be in store for the comp in Fiji commencing 3rd June. Let's hope this LWT doesn't peak too early before the comp!!!!

Still, plenty of lengthy fetches foreecast in the Southern Ocean along the southern flank of a large continental high, so I can't see Fiji being flat.....just a question of if it will be big if the LWT stalls IMO.

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gannet Monday, 21 May 2012 at 3:22pm

Howdy gents

Looks like there'll be some mid-week swell for Victoria. But hows the wind forecast looking?

At winki and bells its a fine line between 4-6 ft perfection groomed by a strong NNW and 4-6 ft adventure conditions in the face of a westerly gale

I'm dying to know which it'll be

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Craig Monday, 21 May 2012 at 5:29pm

Looking pretty damn good Gannet with an all day N/NW'ly tomorrow that won't get too fresh and then when the swell peaks on Wednesday you're looking at similar N/NW winds persisting all day.

Winds could even go variable into the afternoon with the low moving across the region but have a look here for a more detailed analysis.. http://www.swellnet.com.au/reports/torquay/extended

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Craig Monday, 21 May 2012 at 5:32pm

Oh and Don, looks like the swell from this intensification will hit before Fiji but there doesn't look to be a major block moving in behind so there should still be a relatively healthy setup for the competition.

We'll keep an eye on it over the coming days though!

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donweather Monday, 21 May 2012 at 8:26pm

Latest EC charts aren't painting such a good looking picture in their long range for the Fiji comp IMO. Large blocking high moving into camp over the Tasman. Still a long way out, so we'll see how they evolve as this Tasman low this weekend is likely to be causing them (the models) grief in the medium term anyway.

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gannet Tuesday, 22 May 2012 at 11:56am

Cheers Craig

Nice!

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the-pharmer Tuesday, 22 May 2012 at 6:35pm

Thanks Craig,
Geez it would be hard to forecast rainfall totals, been watching this system very closely and talking with the old man who has more knowledge that most libararys, He thinks every year is going to be a drought!! guess he will be right one year. We have detailed records of everything to do with the weather and rainfall on this farm for over 100 years, and everything else that happened on a day to day basis. the only thing i know more about that him is surfing and my predictions of the LWT bringing higher chances of rain impressed him, that was the last substancial gaugings we had!! So thanks for bringing your knowledge to the swellnet community, not saying that it has anything to do with LWT, but i will take the acknoledgments from my dad!! I figure we will see 20mm + in the next few days, leaving me with a window of opportunity to get amongst the action. My mate with the bronzie's jaw is having a party wednesday night so i may take the ruler and camera along, just to show the doubters how infact the teeth marks are that of a whaler..No doubt.. I noticed his story in sharkman fails to mention that it was the bottom jaw that made those marks? the bottom jaw of a GWS, have double rows of teeth in the middle, even a juvenile?? Maybe his memory was better 30 years after the attack than it was 10?? When i look at the gory photo i presumed it was the bite mark from the top jaw of a GWS, thats what it appeared to me as. Pity his first story said it was the bottom jaw!! The tooth in the hand went undetected for 12 years also is a bit much for the pharmer to digest.. But it's the australian way i suppose, dont let the truth get in the way of a good story, Australia was built on bullshit, plenty others have done worse things. I just wanted the truth to be out there for the few that were interested. You got it first, here on swellnet!! which i must say is a fantastic website for surfing reports and extended forecasts. Give yourselves a pat on the back, you guys deserve it. and keep it the way you do it, We can use your information and apply it to our coastline out here without you guys having to tell people what you think will happen out west. Might have to try and get a "Wave of the Day" photo one day, i have a few that could take the honnors. Cheers again fella's, tractor driving has never been such fun since i got a smartphone!!

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the-pharmer Thursday, 24 May 2012 at 6:19pm

20mm in the gauge!! stoked, and the waves were cranking this arvo, wind was light from the south south east, there was hardly a soul around. Was a bit chilly thou..Life is good

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Craig Friday, 25 May 2012 at 9:46am

Awesome stuff pharmer, looks like it's gonna be a good season over there, and you're getting your fill of waves as well. I was around 3 Thursday's ago with that west swell and northerly and scored some sick waves, could of been in the lineup with you actually!

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the-pharmer Friday, 25 May 2012 at 12:44pm

was that the day before "good Friday"? that whole week was unbelievable, 3 monster swells in a week. That was the 5th of april, bit more than wks ago, but hang on, 3 thursdays ago i surfed a wave ive never seen surfed, next to a popular right on a west swell. couple fellas joined me, maybe it was that day?? I got one of the best rides ive had in that area, fast, hollow and long!! gotta be a real high tide to even attempt. Think im working out who you may be, Were you at Baby Dalys in mid december?? or ever get tangled up out at the point years ago, 3 boards stacked on top of each other?? ride a MR fish sometimes?

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wellymon Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 7:13pm
the-pharmer wrote:

3 thursdays ago i surfed a wave ive never seen surfed, next to a popular right on a west swell.

haha

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Craig Friday, 25 May 2012 at 12:50pm

Um no, no and no haha. I'm talking Thursday the 10th of May, surfed a ledgey wedgey left and then a 'secret' right point in the afternoon on the incoming tide. I was last over in October, and then Chrissie but only to the YP October and May. Anyways, it's been a good couple of months over there!!

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the-pharmer Saturday, 26 May 2012 at 12:00am

@ craig, that rules that dude out then!! A good mate of mine from victor/ middleton tells me he has shared a few secret sessions with ya in the past. his last name is similar to mine, good fella, surfs so much he has grown scales!!
Is there an old school weather term for LWT?, And how often does it come about?. Heard on the radio a bit of talk about el nino stregthening?? whats your opinion there?? Do you think S.A may be in for a dry spring?? and while im at it ( extracting as much free info from ya!) what long range models or websites do you look at or consider to be most accurate?? You should try and make it to the Dalys celebrations planned for January 14th ish, it will be a cracker hopefully.

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the-pharmer Saturday, 26 May 2012 at 12:03am

one more thing Craig, Do you have any rellies in Maitland, SA ?? there's an awful lot of brokenshires in that town.

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Craig Sunday, 27 May 2012 at 6:42pm

Interesting pharmer, wouldn't have his first name would ya?

And no there isn't any real old school term for the LWT, other than the upper level patterns/cold pools, etc.

The La Nina of late last year has nulled out and we're in a neutral phase. Main indicators are showing no real trend at this stage but the BOM are predicting we'll move into an El Nino pattern which would mean dryer conditions than the last couple of years. Check here.. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

I'll keep that date in mind for the Daly's meet, sounds like a great day and regarding Maitland not that I know of and while Brokenshire's are related somewhere down the line to us my last name is Brokensha ;)

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the-pharmer Monday, 28 May 2012 at 7:17pm

@craig, wasn't sure how ya spelt your last name, there all shire's around here so i guess i didnt pay attension to the spelling, silly question i guess. Our mutual friend's first name ryhmes with my wife's name!! good clue hey!! dont think he wants to be identified?? Guess you'll have to come to Daly Heads and ask who the pharmer is, then who his wife is, introduce yourself and you'll have the answer, He will probably be there anyway and would have filled you in already. It's sure to be a great weekend and for a good cause. Scored some uncrowded sick ones yesterday, was to wet to work, been going alright over this way lately....

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southey Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 6:55pm

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