After a promising start to the season, the North Pacific storm track has gone right off the rails during the past week, thanks to a large blocking pattern to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.

We're coming up to almost a straight week of tiny to flat conditions on the North Shore, and as we gaze into the future, there are no significant swell events on the horizon whatsoever.

Looking at the synoptics in a little more detail: a small low in the Gulf of Alaska (as per the above chart) has kicked up a small north-west swell for the west coast of North America. The outer bands of this energy will momentarily brush the Islands over the coming days, but there won't be much size in it at all - just a minor increase from the north at best.

Following this, we'll see tiny to flat conditions persist through the remainder of the week and the weekend, ahead of a small NW swell due to arrive early next week. This swell will have originated from a low pressure system currently developing east of the Kuril Islands. Initially, this low won't exhibit any major swell generating features for Hawaiian shores, especially once it tracks into the Bering Sea and inside the shelter of the Aleutian Islands chain.

However, this system is showing some potential for the long term. The low is expected to track into the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend, stalling for a few days and generating broad N/NW gales across the Northeast Pacific.

Although aimed away from Hawaii, we should see a reasonable kick in new swell from the north sometime around Wednesday, December 8th. Despite not being huge in size, this swell looks like it'll probably be the first notable break from the existing flat spell.

More importantly, December 8th is the first day of the waiting period for the Billabong Pipe Masters. If the competition decides to run on this day - a decision that'll depend on the long term forecast at that point in time - it'd be fair to say that the swell's predominant northerly direction would favour a Backdoor scenario over Pipeline. Obviously, local winds and sand buildup will pay a crucial role in the quality of the surf.

In any case, we'll keep a close eye on these developments over the coming days and will update with more information as it comes to hand. //BEN MATSON