Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Severe Tropical Cyclone (STC) Ului is currently positioned S/SW of Honiara in the Solomon Islands, approximately 1,300km to the NE of Mackay. STC Ului formed as a tropical depression just west of Vanuatu last Friday, and rapidly intensified to a category 5 cyclone during Sunday. This dynamic system is currently producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 130kts (241km/h) with gusts up to 160kts (296km/hr).
Due to STC Ului's large spatial coverage, the entire Coral Sea has fallen under its influence and the associated high seas are already affecting small island communities.
Current computer model predictions have STC Ului moving south during the next couple of days and weakening slightly, but remaining as a Severe Tropical Cyclone. From Friday onwards the leading global forecasting models diverge on the future path of Ului, with the European model (ECMWF) suggesting a coastal crossing between Rockhampton and Mackay. On the other hand, the American model (GFS) pushes STC Ului in a path towards Bundaberg, stalling the cyclone off Fraser Island.
Whichever way the computer models pan out, the Queensland coast is certainly on target to receive a exceptionally large swell event from the east to north-east, building Friday onwards and peaking over the weekend. Initial estimates indicate wave heights could reach well in excess of 15ft+ at exposed locations, with the possibility of even larger and more damaging waves if the cyclone does in fact push close to the mainland. If we were to experience a coastal crossing of STC Ului, potentially hazardous side effects would include storm surges, significant beach erosion and localised flooding.
While the Queensland and Northern NSW coasts are expected to receive the largest waves from this event, locations further south should see more manageable conditions with clean lines of north-east groundswell likely to reach as far as Tasmania's East Coast.
Keeping in mind the varying model predictions for STC Ului, there's still plenty of room for movement regarding the predicted swell size and direction across the entire eastern seaboard. Check back over the coming days for the latest updates. // CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Jeez.. even back in the day I wouldn't have been game to draw a system like this on the back of my schoolbooks. What a beast!
It's a massive system for sure! Guess once we feel the full affects from the large swell, there won't be much surfing being done until it cools down a little bit.
This could be the one that really causes some damage. Has been a long time coming. .. . I'm predicting land fall much further south closer to the Sunshine coast/ brisbane , even GC. Wait and see . .
^^^ Be a few people keen to see how much sand this moves out of the bay at Coolangatta. The old boys keep talking about active years and big systems....well, this is a big system.
Oh the media will be all over this! Get ready QLD'ers, they'll want floods, destruction, king tides and beach erosion not to mention the Mastercard moments of dispair on the faces of those who've lost property.
On a positive note, WA is nice this time of year. Unfortunately we can't stop what Mother Nature has in store but she sure is a wonderful thing.
Stu, a few of the old boys are hoping this storm will destroy the sand on the beach at desert point (aka Kirra) and bring the old girl back to life!!!
Ryder, combine a solid storm swell peaking on Saturday evening (based on current forecasts) with a large high tide and a solid storm surge, and for me, it's good night Hastings Street and all the homes fronting Palm Beach!!!
I work for the media on the Cap coast, and I don't want to see any destruction or loss of property. If the TC crosses the coast, my home is just as at risk as anyones.
Swell yesterday at Agnes was a clean and consistent 3 feet, but the currents are super strong. We've been getting swell here for the last week, and I expect some unknown spots to light right up.
Keep up the good work old mate Benno.
wow!
it's pretty full on.
will have to check it out just because.
it's gonna kane the coast, and not in a good way.
will check out points monday i reckon.
c'mon huey bring the rain!!
Ben's in meetings all mornings Dman.
Any chance you can give us a quick update if things heat up?
Yeah Dman, I wouldn't mind an update on conditions up there on Saturday evening!!!
The Pacific buoys off the reef are starting to go ballistic! Avg of 7-10m with 16s+ periods. If this baby comes down the coast I can see a repeat of 1974! Get ready Brisbane/GC.
But I can just see the headlines: ITS A CYCLONE, MUST BE GLOBAL WARMING!
I'd have to say I am concerned, Fiji did'nt even know what TC Mick was until it had flattened half the country. The only sign we have here of any impending event, is guests being moved off Heron Island. The staff follow tomorrow. Apart from that, you would'nt even know there was a cyclone - apart from surf at Agnes, and other spots that allegedly never get surf.
Hey Walrus, do you have a link to these "pacific buoys"? Are you talking about actual wave buoys (as opposed to virtual buoys)?
And also, Ului is in the Coral Sea, not the Pacific, so are you referring to wave buoys in the Coral Sea?
Either way a link would be schweet!!
APRIL FOOLS ! :D its a hoax, your all jinxed
Here we go again , massively over hyped swell event. Not pointing any fingers were all guilty from carparks to computer models !
WHERE IS THE FUCKEN SURF IN THE SYDNEY REGION. I WANT A REFUND.
The swell at Tannum Sands, about 1.5 hours north of Agnes Water is around 2-3 feet, stormy but there are defined sets when swell hits the banks. Wind here is about 20 odd knots with the occasional 27 knot gust, nothing yet too full on. Grey day, not much rain....yet. I won't get down to Agnes for a surf until Mon/Tues, expect the guts of the swell to have disappated by then. Looks like the Whitsundays are going to cop it head on.
who wants a cone?
i'm havin 3 beers and 6 cones
Shine On intergallactic surf pigs
Cheers Dman.
Looks like Ului veered west and dropped intensity earlier than expected. Great news for the folk living in the vicinity, few grumbles from surfers to the south...
I never liked Tomas but liked Uui better until it stayed too far north and then went too quickly west.
Tomas' swell was definitely around this morning in Sydney with inconsistent 2-3ft sets at South Narra but you had to wait for them, sometimes up to 10mins but with only 1 or 2 waves in each set.
Manly had more consistent 3ft waves but was so crowded and not worth it.
The swell is nearly all gone now and it doesn't look good for tomorrow off Ului, not that I'm expecting much anyway.
Disappointing but the swell was there..
I think i've worked it out .... after 8 beers and 6 cones, thanx matski ! I 'm thinking the groms aren't complaining . Its saturday... They'll be so sunburnt wasted surfed all day. Main beach is full of swell, joggly but pumping in ! They'll be stoked, lowtide , hightide , 10knts of cross, on shore, 60 degree rebound, refract whatever !!! Maybe what's happening here is THE clash of the age old " should've been here yesterday" , " not like it used to be" and modern day comprehensive detailed swell forecasting. Interesting to sea who is really relying on this modern technology for their kicks. Bottom line ..... There's MOTION IN THE OCEAN get OUT THERE !!!
Saturday night im sitting here says it all really !
It's 8pm on the central coast, and the winds have dropped from around 35 knots to maybe 10 knots. Misty drizzle. Not sure how high the winds will come up here, I'm about 6 hours south of the eye. Ului has dropped down to a 955 Low so she's built up momentum to a category 3. Thw Whitsunday islands are in it's direct path. I once lived on one of the islands, and it will flatten them.
There's a few surf pics in the galleries here - hope you don't mind Ben.
http://tinyurl.com/yfsk38x
http://tinyurl.com/ykajytr
Mackay had a solid 15 days straight of surf starting with that beautiful large High all the way through to TC ULUI which slammed us here in the Whitsunday/Mackay region surf ranging from shoulder to 2ft overhead in week 1 influenced by the high and we had large tides so it helped even more. To the transition to TC ULUI we had solid head high to 4-6ft overhead waves & all winds for this period were SSE which assisted us by producing offshore conditions with the protection of the Mackay Harbour North Wall we scored big time pics can by found on my facebook page Jeff Grasby 2010 waves see what you think also waves there from TC Olga as well. Cheers off to Yeppoon this weekend for the Yeppoon Surf Festival, Graz
Mackay had a solid 15 days straight of surf starting with that beautiful large High all the way through to TC ULUI which slammed us here in the Whitsunday/Mackay region surf ranging from shoulder to 2ft overhead in week 1 influenced by the high and we had large tides so it helped even more. To the transition to TC ULUI we had solid head high to 4-6ft overhead waves & all winds for this period were SSE which assisted us by producing offshore conditions with the protection of the Mackay Harbour North Wall we scored big time pics can by found on my facebook page Jeff Grasby 2010 waves see what you think also waves there from TC Olga as well. Cheers off to Yeppoon this weekend for the Yeppoon Surf Festival, Graz