Early Forecast: MEO Portugal Pro
Hot off an active season of surf in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic is currently firing on all cylinders producing back to back large swells for much of Europe's west-facing coasts.
There's already a large contingent of CT surfers on the ground in Peniche, getting in practice ahead of the MEO Portugal Pro, which starts on the 3rd of March - a week from this Thursday.
Despite the current swell activity, including a significant storm this weekend, the North Atlantic will shortly settle down, leading to a subdued first half of the waiting period.
Long-range forecasts have a high pressure system moving in as the waiting period begins, which doesn't bode well for surf. What this means is the North Atlantic storm track will retract further north, increasing the disance from source to terminus, and shifting swells to a more northerly angle. This becomes less favourable for Supertubos as it's blocked by the Peniche peninsula (see image below).
While providing protection from the prevailing northerly winds, the peninsula also shaves size off northerly swells. Swell arriving from storms positioned further south in the Atlantic Ocean are more favourable.
Geographic layout of Peniche and surrounds
On the northern side of the peninsula we find Baleal, which is a magnet for north-west swells although it lacks the quality of Supertubos due to its flatter, gradual sloping bathymetry and is open to the prevailing northerly breezes.
Coming back to this weekend's storm, and the system looks to produce a healthy swell for the start of next week - a great warm up for the CT surfers - but by the time Thursday, the first day of the waiting period, swings around they'll be looking at smaller mid-period swell energy from the N/NW with favourable offshore winds.
Some long-range, inconsistent NW groundswell may be seen into Friday, the second day of the waiting period, but following this there's nothing yet showing on the charts.
Size wise it looks to only be a small 3ft on the sets across Supertubos on Thursday, roughly double that size but windy at Baleal, with Friday possibly coming in a touch stronger and bigger.
Blocking setup for the start of the waiting period
Into the back half of the waiting period, there are some positive developments with a couple of better-positioned storms on the cards, but to what strength remains unclear.
We'll keep you updated as the event nears closer.
Click for the Supertubos Forecast and WAMs.
Comments
So they probably won’t be running in their 6ft surfline conditions.
The long range looks horrendous no?
Have they ever shifted in to Baleal? I don't remember it being moved in the past.
Nice part of the world in a great country.
Baleal is the absolute worst wave. Very soft reef. Hopefully that doesn't happen.
The beachie further north would be a better option. Not much good in northerly winds tho. There are better options to the south of supertubos that are a bit more open to Nth swell. I think they ran it at one of these locations once, could be wrong though.
yeah the reef is mostly mush but baleal beach breaks can get ok
Yeah they shifted it a few years back. Think they even moved it to the beachbreak north of there too.
They scored some decent waves from memory. I think the break is called Lagido. They had the judges set up in the top of a truck/bus.
Kanoa would have to be favourite?
In other news the Great Lakes qs is on. Matt Banting is making another comeback from another injury. Good luck to him this time around, hopefully no more bad news
Long time ago, but in 2009 the contest was held at Lagide (next headland north from Baleal), Belgas (the long beach stretching north from Lagide), Molhe Leste (just north of Supertubos, up against the breakwall), and Supertubos itself.
In 2010, most of the contest was run at Lagide (all the women, much of the men).
Can't find too many examples of recent moves, though in 2017 they surfed a round at Molhe Leste.
They may have to move?
It's a terrible venue under marginal conditions.
Waves looked really fun at Lagide in 2010.
Pre-contest, there are some very good days on the charts, both in Peniche and further afield. Big swell with winds from the east and northeast.
Went to peniche back in 2011. Was there for one of Medina’s first comps. From memory he was only 17.
Stayed in the little camp site. Rock hard ground, used the wettie as my mattress but at 1 euro a night, the camp fee was the right price. I was travelling with a fella that’s sister is now married to Luke Egan. Scratching for boards we asked Luke if he could find us anything. Best he could offer was one of Parko’s repaired boards from Hossegor. Repairs required after Parkos temper got the best of the fibreglass post heat loss. 170 euro for a banged up ex pro board. Thought that was pretty low really.
Great memories from there though, very cheap, quiet fishing town. Just have to hold onto your belongings. Theft was rife.
I don’t enjoy this spot as a CT venue, hard to get right.
Amazing area to travel to yes but to get during a 10 day window…..
Agree. Much of Europe is the same. If they insist on a Euro event, I think Hossegor is a better option.
Agree. Can only remember it being proper pumping Supertubos once, the year Kai Otton won it.
Sorry to be the pedant, but that's not Baleal on the map. There is surf where the arrow is pointing, but Baleal/Lagide is on the eastern side of that rocky promontory.
And yes, epic beach breaks NE of Baleal.
Oh really, I thought it was tucked in that eastern corner of the beach? Will amend if otherwise.
Lagide is over the other side?
Yep!
And Burzum is right; it's a soft burger.
Further up the coast, however:
&t=15s@Island Bay - yes it is, and Baleal reef is pretty much straight off from the 'lea' in 'Baleal'.
Yep. Craig edited the map.
ah.
how about the right in the fanning vid? I was thinking it was that semi wave under the cliffs out the end of peniche. He makes it look good.
I reckon it's a beachie just south of Foz do Arelho (NE of Peniche). I remember that big cliff.
Any info on why there is the semi-permanent sandbank at Supertubos?
From the satellite image, one might assume this beach can only produce mediocre closeout beach break, which is far from the case.
Why is there such a good sandbank at this beach, one of the premier waves in Europe, and what makes it stay in the same place, mais o menos, swell after swell?
Looks to be bathy related. Though I've watched it many a time online and it's been straight, maybe when the swell is too small?
See the deep water running towards the middle of the beach from the south-west direction. Must help focus and bend the swell a little before slamming on the shore. Anyone who's surfed it care to give some further details?
What's your bathy map source, if I may ask, Craig?
Bookmark this beauty.. https://webapp.navionics.com/#boating
Muito obrigado, Senhor!
Edit: Holy smokes! I can see hours of my life disappearing down the bathy rabbit hole.
Welcome to the online bathy club. I recommend a cut lunch and a bottle of water.
Haha yeah it's that good!
Jeez, this is epic, thanks for sharing
There goes your week! Ha.
Kook question: Are the depth numbers in metres? (assume so)
Can't see where it provides a scale except kilometres.
Yep should be. Bass Strait 70-80m or so.
Cheers.
A great resource! I went straight to the Bay of Biscay..
Wait till you start using it to find fish…..
Thanks for posting!
i've been using the app for years for fishing, best feature is the sonar chart feature that really defines the bottom contours, hours and hours of chart exploration coming up for some.
Yep, sonar view is the tits.
Establish direction of current + locate structure creating pressure wave + fish up current of structure = Eat fish.
Its quite funky - the tidal changes make it move from close outs to filthy pits over a really short time frame. It didnt feel or look like 13th beach reef driven swell refraction - nothing seems obviously to cause it - but Im not an oceanographer!
Possible drag on the swell lines from the point and fishing port, might cause the bending, warping.
Yeah it is strange how it's also only one small stretch of a pretty long beach that does it. I remember looking at it for the first time from the Northern headland and wondering how on earth a world class wave could be somewhere down a relatively straight stretch of beach.
Definitely must be something going on underneath because nothing obvious stood out above the surface. Made me wonder how many other supertubos type setups are out there on long untouched beaches around the planet.
Well, presumably they changed the season to have more chance of scoring Supertubos?
Agree, Europe is very hit and miss.
Often many heats held in miserable closeouts- which will be a big letdown after Hawaii- if that is the case.
Thanks, Craig - the offshore canyon producing swell refraction effect must have a role in the formation of the sandbar and the quality of the wave at Supertubos, when it's working.
I think it was Josh Moniz who was seriously injured there last year, with many other people properly pounded by the sheer power of the wave.
Even if it's a sandbar and not a reef, it's a hollow and powerful wave when big and offshore.
Zoom out further and it looks like a adjuncture of the Nazare Canyon helps focus the swell from deeper water as well.
Just remembered a big wipeout from a few years back.
https://www.facebook.com/WSL/videos/meo-rip-curl-pro-portugal-jeremy-flo...
That cracked me up....made me think of that scene from that old animated kids movie "Surfs Up".....where the wipeout gets played over and over again. At your local you can usually get away with the hand slipping off the rail, head first over the falls number....not when the worlds cameras are on you! God love the internet age....
Shit eh. Look at that . Good on ya Craig. Cheers.
No great surprise, but Caio Ibelli, who's coming fourth on the rankings despite not having a spot on this year's CT, has got a start at Portugal.
Gotta assume that Barron, who's currently wearing the yellow jersey, will get a start too.
Have we ever had a year where there's, not one, but two wildcards in the top five?
Further down, Matt McGillivray is another wildcard and he's in 16th spot - so three wildcards inside the cut line.
Meanwhile, there's a very clear breakaway group in the Top 5. Just 2,000 points separates 1st and 5th, while there's another 4,000 points from 5th to 6th.
A young Owen Wright also got smashed out there during the 2009 event - concussed and perforated ear drum, shortly after scoring a perfect 10.
Never thought about it but wonder how it impacted his later brain injury issues.
Can't find the footage though?
Just this article https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theage.com.au/sport/the-wright-track-20...
Checking the charts now and looks like the pre-contest swell producers might be hanging around for a bit longer before going quiet. Guessing the swell potential for the first day may have improved.
No surprises, but both Barron and Caio have now officially been given their wildcards. Caio vs Freddy and Conner C, Barron vs Ethan and Deivid.
Not sure how this works, but there are three local wildcards in the draw: Alfonso Atunes and Vasco Ribeira, both from Portugal, and Justin Becret from France.
Latest forecast shows improving swell, though it's jumping around a lot.
Barron and Ciao will both qualify after the cut off based on their present points.....it would be criminal to not let them have a crack at the top 5 for the end of year.
Yep, agree, but then you look at the Women's and note that Moana is in third place on the rankings and hasn't got a wildcard to Portugal.
I can see the next few years being very volatile on the rankings, the schedule has been shaken up, the formats too, so journeymen won't stand a chance anymore and new talent will be quickly cycling through.
Reckon the Woz is gonna have to implement something that would spare high-placing wildcards like Moana.
Yep the swell for the start of the waiting period is looking much more promising and from a slightly more westerly direction.
That low is looking beastly today!
Surprising it would be if there is one person out that way today not having an absolute ball. (Looking at the cam).
Surfed 4ft Baleal in 1986, some time ago. Freezing cold water at Supertubos and the stinking fish cannery, but much milder water temp at the aforementioned. Not a soul surfing anywhere. Sand was fine and two of us surfed our arse off, how’s ya luck. Surfing had just a minor ground swell of interest. Of most interest, any of our surf wear/clothing from Oz, if we hung it up to dry, guaranteed gone in the morning. Someone is probably still wearing my red and white Echo Beach Quiksilver boardies. Great days.
Update and upgrade.. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2022/03/01/forecast-upda...