The (Un)Official Olympic Forecast - 10 Days To Go
As we near closer to the opening of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, there's more promise in the long-range forecast. An area of instability mentioned in the early forecast looks to now provide the catalyst for not just one but two typhoons.
The chart below details the chance of tropical storm activity from now, up until two days before the start of surfing competition, that being Friday, July 23rd. Competitions kicks off on Sunday the 25th and can run through until the 1st of August if need be, though they only need 4 days to complete it. It shows a 50% chance of tropical storm activity, right in the ideal region for generating swell for Tsurigasaki Surfing Beach, the beach chosen for the Olympics.
Probability of tropical cyclone activity for the period 14-23rd July. Source: ECMWF
The first typhoon is due to actually develop north-east of the Phillipines tomorrow, with it reaching cyclone strength over the next 48 hours. If so it will be named Typhoon In-Fa, with it forecast to tack north-northwest, crossing the Okinawa Prefecture early next week.
Following this a secondary, much broader but weaker typhoon looks to develop in almost the same location, but instead track north towards the Honsho mainland. As it does so it will weaken and continue to broaden, with Tsurigasaki being subjected to onshore, E/NE tending NE winds.
The strength at this stage looks to be between strong to gale-force, whipping up a sizey, onshore easterly swell for the region, mixed in with some south-southeast groundswell from the eastern flank of the low.
This is a positive development, and with the typhoon remaining relatively broad, it hopefully won't fully overpower the beach. The only issue are the local winds and at this stage they look initially onshore before improving through the week but this all depends on the movement of the typhoon.
Possible second typhoon forecast, right in the middle of the Tokyo event window
On the days before the event, with a possible larger south-east groundswell from the earlier stages of the typhoon and and north-east winds, the Katsuura region, some 20km down the coast should come to life for competitors looking for a bit of a warm up surf. Keep an eye on the surfers' social media channels.
But coming back to the surf forecast, we'll continue to monitor these developments over the coming week and a half.
Chiba East 16-day Forecast Graph
Chiba East 16-day Forecast WAMs
Comments
I hereby declare copyright over any references to typhoon swell impacting on competition site like “Godzilla descending upon downtown Tokyo”.
Seconded.
Good stuff, Craig.
And good point, Blowin.
Hey Craig, off topic but WTF is this 'moon - wobble' I am hearing about? Fifteen years of low high and high low tides, world wide coastal destruction. Is it real ?
Move to Alaska. Land is rising there - for the time being - because of long-term geological processes.
Yeah I did read that and wasn't aware eh. It would be good if NASA put out the percentage changes in expected tides through these periods compared to the standard.
All the SUV's on the moon are parked by the shores of the Sea of Tranquility, and their weight is causing the wobble.
those typhoons look too close to Japan to create good waves, be good if they move south east.
By the way anyone here surfed the maluku islands (spice islands) part of indo in the pacific south of Phillipines. hard to get to on land, best way is by boat but those typhoons look good for moratai and serinade which is as perfect as macaronis. in season breaking almost every day but even a good grasp of bahasa indonesia wont get you there yet. They speak a local non national language. and dog is the favorite meat.
Tried to get there in 1999 Groundswell, but instead ended up on a people smuggling vessel out of Manado in north Indo into General Santos in Philippines. Epic voyage, full moon with a halo, I was the only westerner on board.
Never made it to Maluku, heaps of religious unrest going on at the time so I wasn't too worried. But got some amazing waves and met some great people heading north from Davao up through Cloud Nine and Samar etc to Manila for my ride home.
If you spent time there, please share...
Troppo nah i havent been there yet, maybe one day. id like to do it via land bus and ferries rather than a luxery boat or ship.
Ithink dave rasta has been there on a small vessel
not there.
did a tour of Phillos, went south to Mindanao, Siargao Island, then back to Luzon and north to south in Luzon.
ended up camping out on a perfect left on north Luzon.
no road access, we got a little boat out there.
8hr trip, worst sea voyage ever.
More stories! That was scratching my no international travel itch… good visuals of an adventure Troppo.
I have been researching the Maluku islands a lot lately. Business reasons. I never took the time to consider there may be waves there. Off the north coast is ass7me?
be good if i could move the second photo sideways but its the best i could do.
I think it will be a very long time before this area turns into the ments or bali surf slum areas. They are not secret but its very hard to get to and best to have a local guide who can get you there. Most surfers would be better off in other islands in the indian ocean as malaria is rampant and the preferred meat here is dog. And its a long way from anywhere.
https://imgur.com/bjHpfVa
https://imgur.com/JxwNQfB
Whereabouts in NSW you moving?
Probably Ulladulla or near areas, nowra would also do. But only if my landlords kick me out for a renovation as there's nowhere else here to go.
I remember looking at that Serenade joint on google maps years ago and have had a virtual buoy there for years - looks epic. Appears to get big on the odd typhoon - doing a hit and run wouldn’t really be an option due to distance. Northern hemisphere winter appears to get consistent 10-12sec of swell with minimal winds.. fun as.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Don't think they have been classified as Typhoons yet Groundy...
Great link to keep on file mate
If you build it, waves will come!
Kind of like CT at New York that time
Or Search at Mexico.
Or that time I rolled the dice on an iffy forecast and went west and scored.
More evidence we are in a simulation.
A stimulation simulation yew!
The Oz team land in Japan next week, giving themselves approx. four or five days to get accustomed to what will be a shifty beachbreak.
Wondering if it's a COVID thing, cos I would've thought, given the vagaries of the ocean, you'd want to clock as much water time at Shidashita as possible.
Even the tiniest piece of intel about the wave could hold the key to progressing.
The softball team seem to be going to the other extreme, 43 days before the start of the games:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-10/australia-softball-team-first-arrive-tokyo-olympics-covid-bubble/100201882
Makes sense.
Unlike surfing, a softball diamond is an everchanging field and taking time to discern the local patterns of change can provide a large advantage over your opponents.
How's the softball forecast looking?
Spending as little time in the radiation as possible
Unfortunate name for a beach, let’s hope it doesn’t live up to its name.
Softball forecast haha yes, it's flat.
So the forecast is saying they've got tattslotto lucky and Huey's going to load up the microscopic event window from the south but Shityshityshitshit beach faces north !?
Off topic a bit (but still comp related)... not sure if this is Barra? But if so then sand looking pretty nice:
News said Alex DeMinaur just tested positive and won't get to play.
That kind of thing could influence our surfers.
Only a soft baller knows the feeling.
Six days out and the forecast is still wildly fluctuating. The only sure thing is that there'll be something - abject flatness won't be a worry for the organisers.
Instead, there'll probably be too much swell and wind, especially going on the latest model output which shows all eight days of the waiting period delivering good size, but with lots of onshore wind to deal with too.
Early crow. Brazil for the blokes, France for the women based on forecast. Alot of talent in those two teams to handle chunky unpredictable beachies.
Not much opportunity for warm-up surf atm here, oily glassy all day but tiny. Gonna get real big real quick. My call Tues/Wed next week for the best waves.
Shame they couldn't make it mobile, there's a little spot up the road, rare offshore in a nor-easter and loves a south swell. Barrels HARD and can handle big swell.
I'll have an update today. Typhoon In-Fa has formed and has stayed true to forecast, with it due to pass over the southern Okinawa Prefecture this evening and tomorrow.
A secondary deepening low will follow and it looks very tricky. Either way there is swell on the way but one scenario is much better than the other.
Riss looking loose!
Frame grab from the ShittaShitta surf cam.
Pumping.
https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/taito/584204204e65fad6a770973a
I went for a lunchtime bodybash. the water is bath warm, it's baking on land and It's flatter than a nuns...
But don't worry, It's gonna get big, real big. In fact, too big. I reckon they won't be able to hit the water till Tuesday unless they can get out and head north up to here or south to Shonan or wherever.
Warm up surfs are gonna be hard to come by.
This was this mornings surf check.
Layday for me- ha ha!
Actually, I just re-checked the SN forecast and It's all been re-set. Not gonna bo huge but its certainly gonna be solid.
Looks like plenty of surf for the Olympics with less than ideal winds. Could make for some decent viewing.
Shark attack, sorry Mouth Cuddle at Oarai today. Bout an hour north as the crow flies of Shidashita. Surfer. Not sure of the extent of his injuries but wlll post when I know more.
I reckon they're gonna keep that pretty quiet.
Mouth Cuddles are very rare here.
Oh wow, interesting.
In-fa looks like its gonna wreak some havoc
Let's hope it's not an Olympic size Mouth Cuddle Zen...
To be honest, I have never heard of a shark attack in that region.........Although the Sea Creature world do have a very good reason to repay the land based seafood obsessed foe.....
latest SW model looking pretty bloody good I think?! Good east swell and mostly sw winds all week. There'll be Kazakhs buying surfboards this time next week.
Yep first two-three days look good, have drafted an update article but waiting for model alignment as they're still shifting around re the timing of the swells and local winds, depending on the track of the next typhoon.
The forecast is for a tsunami . A tsunami of COVID-19 spread by returning Olympians akin to the spread of Spanish Flu brought about by returning Great War combatants. At least according to an op-ed in the Nine papers.
It seems that Japan wanted to cancel the Games but have been held to ransom by the IOC under the threat of massive sanctions that calling them off would bring.
I like the Olympics and all, but jeeez?
https://www.watoday.com.au/sport/tokyo-s-olympic-games-could-turn-into-a...
God that article is pure drivel.
The Olympics is a vehicle for corruption on a grand scale, nothing more. No one beyond a tiny handful of athletes would notice if the Olympics were never staged again. Trying to frame the Japanese hosting of the games as anything but the result an auction between international parties vying for the opportunity to gain access to the corruption sanctioned under the Olympic model is pure rubbish.
Similar bullshit articles will be written in the coming years about Australia hosing the Olympics again. Australia, like Japan, only appealed for the Olympics because it’s an incredible funnel of wealth into corrupt pockets. It has zero to do with Japan’s or Australia’s national identity.
The Olympics has to be amongst the largest con job rorts in modern times.
I totally agree. Nobody here wants it and even though it's upon us. the mood of the people (those I talk to anyway) are about as enthusiastic about it as a soggy kitten.
As for Brisbanes bid- fark that. They're saying that Brisbanites and Queenslanders in general are excited about the games and want it to go ahead. Every single Queenslander I know, including people in Brissie are vehemently against it.
The con works all the way down.
Ever wondered how a fella who got rich filling the world with disposable consumer fashion footwear which now sits undecomposed in landfill the world over , sold off the back of female sexual objectification, positioned himself as champion of environmentalism and equality expressed through surfing at the Olympics?
Olympic money is the vilest of shit, attracting the most heinous of flies and marketed as the apex of human spiritual purity.
Redeemed only through the genuine hopes of a handful of driven athletes. Though even they are outnumbered by the athletes looking for that big Feature Win Free Spin Olympic Fame Celebrity Payout.
Kaching! Kaching!
Well said Blowin and Zenagain....
Imagine the 3rd or 2nd world country sweatshops that feed the surf culture/clothing world.....[ Vietnam happens to be one of them]
Olympic money is the long standing forerunner to every other sport fashion dollar bait in the world today, and sadly, we as surfers contribute......
Didn't Claw just pay 8 mill for a house in Agnus?
free image hosting
Baking hot here, oily glassy and the odd knee high death-pit. I'm guessing Shidashita looks roughly the same.
Further to yesterdays Spanish Mackerel Inquisition/Mouth Cuddle. I was chatting to a bloke in the surf. The victim was in his 50's and got a pretty bad bite to his foot- 21 stitches and I'm guessing a cool scar to share with his grandkids.
Fun fact. The 11th Olympic games were opened by Adolph Hitler prior to WW2. In his opening speech he conceded that Tokyo may be allowed to host the following games but they would return to Germany thereafter to be held there until the end of time.
Another fun fact- Hitler was the person who suggested the torch relay to begin in Athens.
ahh he did. Also it was these olympics that first had the represented nations athletes marching into the stadium in alphabetical order. Who says the Olympics are a front for corrupt and questionable human ethics. Hitler managed to use these olympics to drum up propaganda to gain support from his nation and nearby allies for his next, erm phase in life. The snowball effect really kicked off with those games.
Oh, and as a footnote, the following games scheduled for Tokyo, in 1940 were cancelled, for some reason or another.