The Next Ten Cyclones: A Bold Prediction
Working independently of my colleagues here at Swellnet I've been busy forecasting the coming cyclone season. Using the science of stereotyping, the same scientific field that teaches us all dogs are male and all cats are female, I've put forth my prediction for the next batch of cyclones.
The list is taken from the Bureau of Meteorology starting with the latest cyclone, Oswald.
Oswald: It's the quiet ones you've got to be wary of. Or the ones with meek, nancy-pancy names. Lee Harvey Oswald may have been a patsy for the CIA, the FBI, and mebbe even the KGB, but make no mistake, he was one bad fucker - unassuming but dangerous. Same with his namesake, Tropical Cyclone Oswald is currently making his way across Far North Queensland and the bustling hubs of Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw would do well to keep a close eye on him. As should the BOM who need to run ASCATs to determine his connection with MJO.
Peta: Will be a disappointment to her parents who always wanted a boy. It's not just rural Chinese and Indian families who display gender favouritism - just look at the difference in pay rates here in Australia! Sadly gendercide is frowned upon here so the next option is often sought: banishment to WA's Pilbara region where unwanted progeny are unlikely to turn up in records of public affairs or photo albums.
Rusty: Will be christened Russell but his first act will be to call up the bureau and have his name changed to Rusty. "It just suits my knockabout nature," will be the reasoning of this curiously sunny cyclone. Of course the bureau will oblige - after all, everyone loves Rusty. Henceforth Rusty will hold the door open to let ex-TC Peta exit the room, give a wink to the good folk at Townsville, and doff his hat at the giggling lasses in Cairns. All the while Rusty will keep a respectful distance from the working families of Queensland. People will remember him fondly. Next year Rusty will appear in 'most popular name' lists for babies and blue heelers.
Sandra: She'll come bouncing out of the Coral Sea charged up on a post-workout endorphin high. The quintessential sporty gal, Sandra will do three laps of the Coral Sea: one to warm up, one at 100%, and then a slow, warm down circuit while sipping on an orange Gatorade.
Tim: There's a gap in my knowledge here. Will conduct some more research shortly...
Victoria: Hardly a secret, Victoria will put it all out on display. Haughty one moment, vivacious the next, but never, ever boring and dull. Victoria will please.
Zane: Will perversely harbour a superiority complex owing to his name beginning with the last letter of the alphabet. Typical of his conceited nature he'll mistakenly believe this superficial fact makes him unique and special. Tropical Cyclone Zane will subsequently follow a well-worn path, slowly tracking south-east away from the mainland as hundreds of cyclones before him have done. A week later no-one will remember his name.
Alessia: And we're back to the start of the alphabet again! Fortunately coastal communities have nothing to fear from Alessia as she's Daddy's little girl. Undoubtedly attractive, her isobars will display uncanny symmetry and surfers will be enchanted by her beauty. There will be collective excitement as everyone rates their chances, and then collective disappointment as nothing comes of the courtship.
Bruce: Bruce will do a fridge-to-fridge tour of the Queensland coast finishing at the Point Lookout Hotel for an extended session of binge drinking. Happy and cheerful at first, he'll begin to challenge fellow drinkers with chants of "piss on or piss off", before taking a swing at a confused tourist, vomiting on his feet and then falling asleep in the gutter. The next day there'll be pumping waves.
Christine: The real danger event of the cyclone season. Hell having no fury and all that. With a furrowed brow and tight isobars Christine will be furious as all get out.
Dylan: Named after a mumbling folk singer who changed his name from Zimmerman to that of a drunk Welsh poet. Dylan will have a nervous tic that'll keep North Queensland communities on edge expecting the unexpected. But the cane cutters have nothing to fear. Burdened with acceptance issues, Dylan (nee Zimmerman) is too eager to please and too timid to offend. There'll be no blood on the tracks nor any raging against the dying of the light.
Edna: Hello Possums!
Comments
10 cyclones?? Guess you failed maths at wherever it was you got your science degree. And where's Q and U??
And I guess you failed the alphabet at wherever it was you went to school. W, X and Y are also missing.
who cares .... OZZY is all that counts ATM ......
Kneepete and Derra83, this link may help explain the up and coming names. Only one name is taken starting with the letters of the following groups P/Q, and also U/V and W/X/Y/Z.
I guess the BOM couldn't be stuffed trying to come up with names starting with rare letters such as Q/U/Z etc.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/names.shtml
What an example of multiculturalism the Bureau of Meteorology have in their cyclone names. Quang, Koji Ira, Ferdinand, Tatjana, even Savannah. What would it have been 40 years ago? Cyclone Dave and Cyclone Dot.
@Kneepete,
It's 10 because 10 sounds better than 11. You should be happy, you got an extra prediction for free.
Tropical Cyclone Bruce FTW
Ahh Alessia, how i've dreamed of rustling about your petticoats and rolling in the hay.
And yet when the time came you just lay there, whispering conventional little scripted precious nothings while I did what I had to, just to pass the time.
But Christine - there is a real woman. She threw me down and had her way, and afterwards as I tried to crawl away whimpering 'enough, enough', she grabbed me by the ankle and dragged me back into the impact zone for another pummeling. *sniff*
And Tropical Cyclone Peta has just been born! At present she's wandering forlornly around the Pilbara region as a Category 1 'clone.
Next in line, Rusty.
I'd like to see more masculine names for the male cyclones and more feminine for the female. I'm thinking of lightly caressing the waves of Grace's body, or, going toe to toe for 10 rounds with Bob in a battle for the ages. Just to give them that little bit more feeling. I like Bruce, Rusty and Victoria... Especially Victoria! The rest, not so much.
Don't follow that logic Fully Loaded Guy, you're heading for disappointment. When Cyclone Larry hit the charts back in 2008 (?) I was thinking, right on, here's a cyclone I can like. With a name like Larry how could you not?
Then the prick hit Innisfail and stole all the bananas.
$16.99/kilo?? Thanks Larry.
That was a great read Stu , had me in stitches.!!
Stu, my given name is Zeno. Just imagine a wise and philosophical cyclone?
Z-man,
We would be truly blessed if Tropical Cyclone Zeno were to happen. Swells to enlighten and delight in, measureless waves so profound and beautiful.
Not to mention the photos of Costa Rican hotties...
Stu,
Zeno being the 'stoic' that he was, would counsel us to not become too excited.
It is smaller than small in Costa Rica today. But the Rodeo is coming to town for a nice diversion!
BOLO for some rough ridin' rodeo gals - Ticas!
Still recovering from Freda, she really fucked us around
Yep, I feel used and abused by Freda, hesitant to commit to the next lass.
Twas a short romance with Freda but has left me heartbroken. I'm not sure about Peta sounds like a hippy, Sandra doesnt get me excited, but Victoria got some spunk, but theres something about the name Alessia, sounds so gentle after Freda. Think I will wait for Christine, massive fan of some tight isobars.
Wayne could be nice, mmm what was the name of that spinning cheeky magobea ( chinese ), that strolled all the way into VIC way back then !
Well look, if no-one is gonna toot my horn I'll do it for me.
"Tropical Cyclone Oswald: It's the quiet ones you've got to be wary of....unassuming but dangerous...currently making his way across Far North Queensland...would do well to keep a close eye on him. As should the BOM."
I oughta starting charging for this service.
Has Peta come and gone, if it is then its 2 out of 2....trumpet blowing
'Tropical Cyclone Peta peters out after crossing WA coast'
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201301/s3675665.htm
Toot toot stunet.
Just listened to ozcyclone chasers update for Feb. The MJO is out to Africa and easing. Not heading back to Australia until end of Feb. No cyclones until then. Dry and then some possibility of cyclone activity in pilbara..not looking real flash.
Can you not get cyclones without the Madden-Julian? I thought the MJO was only an indicator of possible cyclone activity?
Yeah, they can happen without the MJO - but the probability of a TC occuring near the passage of the MJO is significantly higher.
So WA end of feb, Qld early march, Coral Sea week 1 in March. With plenty of time to re energise, you'd have to say the ridiculously long range forecast for the quik pro is looking good.
Potentially, shoredump. But remember, the presence of a tropical cyclone still doesn't guarantee a swell event in SE Qld.
When the east coast turns on with a swell lasting for weeks it must be exhausting or frustrating if like Stu you have an injury or commitments that leave you unable to surf.
I once scored a 30 day swell at Kirra back in the mid 90's and by the end of the second week most surfers were battered and burned out. One of my mates had broken every board in his six board quiver and it was nearly impossible to find a second hand board or get a repair done on the Goldy. No pop-outs in those days and every shaper and ding repairer was surfing!
I find the cycle of two or three day swells that we get from the Roaring 40's swell engine off the Southern Ocean easier to deal with, but the hyperactive bursts of non-stop swell that happens from time to time on the east coast make for a really special and memorable experience.
It's not just the irregular bursts of swell that makes it different, YS, the variable swell directions also play a part. I always get a kick out of seeing WA, SA and Vicco swell charts; everyday for the next two weeks, or however long the chart is showing, the little arrow is pointing from the south-west. A big deviation is when, on the very odd occasion, the arrow points WSW or maybe even SSW.
Swell direction down there is like clockwork, except the big hand is stuck in one position!
Different story on the East Coast with swell coming from anywhere within about a 135 degree spread, and sometimes, as we saw last week, two swells from different directions in the water at the same time.
Local knowledge is a valuable currency down on your coast where the waves are a bit harder to get to, but up here, where the waves are usually crowded, local knowledge can help out when the swell is angling in from an unusual direction and you know a few novelty spots that like it just so.
Stu,
Would you be so kind as to assess the lack of swell in Costa Rica this year. We just aren't getting any souther ocean action and it's crazy north swells that are blocking the meager feedings we are getting.
IS it an odd year or is the north pacific unusually active?
You 'blokes' should come for a visit anyway, the 'talent' is incredible and friendly.
You might get lucky IF you bring some of those cyclones with you!
@ z-man
Are there many west coast (Pacific) American cyclones? I dont recall seeing any - wonder if there are any reasons for this?? and I don't think north swells would be blocking any powerful southern hemi swells, there just hasn't been any. Costa Rica is in the swell shadow for the North swells anyway.
Currently we are in El Nino which is good for north pacific swells, though the report here at the BOM has it neutral
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Out of interest, I dragged this of stormsurf. MJO: The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of wind and weather anomalies that run along and over the equator circumnavigating the globe from west to east in roughly 40-60 day cycles, roughly 20-30 days of the Active Phase followed by 20-30 days of the Inactive Phase at any one point on it's path. The cycles alternate continuously year after year and are stronger during the northern hemisphere Fall, Winter and Spring season and lessen during the summer. The classic pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO results in a slackening of trade winds and an increase in rainfall over the area it is present. The Active Phase is directly followed by the Inactive Phase which manifests itself though increased trades winds and reduced rainfall. The Active Phase of the MJO has been implicated in fueling the development of Northern Hemisphere storms during winter months and tropical storms in the Fall over the Pacific , while the Inactive Phase has been implicated in fueling the formation of tropical storm in the Atlantic during summer months. When the strength of Active Phases of MJO dominate, El Nino indicators strengthen. When the Inactive Phase dominate, La Nina moves to the forefront. That is not to say that the MJO causes either El Nino or La Nina, only that it appear to support the development of either extreme of the ENSO cycle. In other words, when the balance of energy favors the Active Phase, the odds of El Nino developing increases. When the balance shifts towards the Inactive Phase, La Nina becomes more likely.
I always thought Australia got more cyclones with La Nina as opposed to El Nino. El Nino is pretty shit for waves east coast Australia as proven for the past 3 months of shit slop slap waves apart from that freak Oswald last week.
On track for a record snow season in Japan with storm after storm and they all have the track EAST across the Pacific. With the documentation of the Hawaiian surf seasons they have always been at their best in the El Nino phases and the strong ones when the likes of the Eddie runs. I have heard this season is better than the past 2 years.
I don't think you really want a cyclone anyway for the quiky pro just a eaterly tradewind belt generating 4-5 foot. Though a low developing in the tropics with easterly dip is the dream forecast!!!
@mick-free; Thanks but we get hurricanes in the northern hemisphere. I would like a few cyclones though.
Anything to increase the swell in CR this year will do just fine with me.
Going today. There's a small bump right now and the waves could get as big as a foot or two overhead?
In 3 months plus we've only had 3, maybe 4 days. of that. Very 'out of the ordinary' !
Patience IS a virtue!
Is there any way you could 'seed' major parts of the 'Roaring 40's' ???
With all the mineral wealth in Oz these days someone should 'get on it' !!!