This coming Saturday, the Corona Saquarema Pro - the final stop in the Challenger Series - begins. For the surfers in the Changa ranks, it’s the final shot at CT qualification.

This year there were six events on the Changa, so per Rule 2.11, the best four results will count. Particularly in the men, there’s potential for changes from the current leaderboard to the final standing.

The best way to illustrate this point is to compare Callum Robson and Al Cleland Jr, who are tied on 13,100 points. However, if both make inroads into the draw then Cleland Jr will drop 700 points while Cal will have to drop 1,700.

Another way to look at it: If Cleland Jr makes his first heat he’ll start adding to his total, while Cal has to make two heats before his points start moving upwards.

There are two other surfers in a similar position to Cleland Jr, both Aussies, and both currently just outside the top ten. Both Mikey McDonagh and Jordy Lawler won a CS this year, reaping 10,000 points, and both have failed to deliver since.

In the four years the Changa has been running, no male surfer has won a comp and not qualified. The exceptions are CT surfers who’ve won on the Changa while competing sporadically.

In the women, four surfers: Luana Silva, Teresa Bonvalot, Bronte Macauley, and Erin Brooks, have all won a CS and failed to qualify - the result of the same points but half the qualifying spots as the men.

Here are the men's rankings going into Saquarema.

Last year also saw six events on the Changa and the men’s cut line was 17,120. Gut feel says the line will be slightly lower this year. Say, around 16,500. Already Sammy Pupo, Ian Gouveia, and Alejo Muniz have qualified - or more accurately, requalified - while Miggy Pupo, who’s currently on 17,275, has provisionally qualified - again adding the ‘re’ prefix.

Below Miggy, the clean skins begin: George Pittar, Edgard Groggia, Jackson Bunch, M-Rod (another requalifier) and Joel Vaughan. Each of these surfers are carrying a 1,700 or 1,900, so they have to reach the quarters to start bettering their current points total.

Immediately below Joel - just 100 points behind - is Cleland Jr, Mikey McDonagh, Marco Mignot, and Jordy Lawler, who are all carrying big scores and dropping small ones.

Of these surfers, Jordy is most disadvantaged as he doesn’t have a seeding into the Round of 64. He’d have to surf every heat up until at least the Semis to be within a shot of the cut line. He won at Narra without a seeding, can he do it at Saqua?

Mikey has a seed so he skips a round, and also would only have to make the Quarters to again be within reach of the cut line - keeping in mind that 17,275 may shift about. In other words, he has to make three heats.

Above Mikey is Callum who needs to make the Quarters to start adding to his total (he’s tossing out 1,700 points - 25th place) but really needs to make the Semis to have any chance of qualifying. He hit good form in Portugal so he’ll be hoping to carry that through to Brazil.

Tied with Callum is Cleland Jr who may be able to qualify by reaching the Quarters, though a Semis finish will lock it in.

Currently in ninth is Joel Vaughan, just a few hundred ahead of Cleland, Callum, and Mikey. Joel has to reach the Quarters to start making ground (tossing out 1,900 - 17th place). A Quarter-Final finish would leave him on 16,045 and open to being overtaken.  Semis would put him on 17,385 and much safer. It’d have to be his best result of the year.

The next Australian is George Pittar who’s sitting in fifth spot and just below the imaginary cut line. Throwing out 1,900 for a 17th place, George has to make the Quarters to begin accruing points. Anything under that leaves him vulnerable to big movers coming from behind.

Onto the women.

In the women, three of the five spots are already sewn up with two requalifiers - Sal and Isabella - and one clean skin in Bella Kenworthy. This leaves two spots, currently filled by Erin Brooks and Nadia Erostarbe - who has a 2,500 lead over sixth placed Vahine Fierro and Luana Silva (who are tied).

Last year the cut line for the women was 22,275 and it’s likely to be similar this year. This means Erin Brooks has provisionally made it, yet regardless she’ll be throwing out a lower number (1,700) than anyone within striking range so has to do less work to solidify her position. If she makes the Round of 16 her points will accrue.

Keep in mind, Erin Brooks won at Saquarema last year.

This realistically leaves just one spot to be filled, currently occupied by Erostarbe on 21,660. Erostarbe, who came third at Saquarema last year, has to make the Quarters to add to her total. In her favour, Vahine or Luana have to make the Semis to overtake those points.

Back in eighth position, Alyssa Spencer and Yolanda Hopkins are tied on 17,555 and each would have to place first or second to overtake Erostarbe’s current points.

Bronte Macauley is in ninth and would have to win the comp to assure qualification. A second-placed finish would land her on 21,950, which could possibly get her in, though it'd depend on how the five aspirants above her finished.

The Corona Saquarema Pro starts Saturday October 12the and runs through to the 20th. The outlook is for an active swell cycle during the whole waiting period. With no shortage of swell, organisers will be looking for windows of lighter winds.

PS: This update was compiled by someone with an adult learner level of mathematics. No need to bray about it if you find an error. Just whack it in the comments and I'll fix it up.