Saquarema Is The Last Shot At CT Qualification
This coming Saturday, the Corona Saquarema Pro - the final stop in the Challenger Series - begins. For the surfers in the Changa ranks, it’s the final shot at CT qualification.
This year there were six events on the Changa, so per Rule 2.11, the best four results will count. Particularly in the men, there’s potential for changes from the current leaderboard to the final standing.
The best way to illustrate this point is to compare Callum Robson and Al Cleland Jr, who are tied on 13,100 points. However, if both make inroads into the draw then Cleland Jr will drop 700 points while Cal will have to drop 1,700.
Another way to look at it: If Cleland Jr makes his first heat he’ll start adding to his total, while Cal has to make two heats before his points start moving upwards.
There are two other surfers in a similar position to Cleland Jr, both Aussies, and both currently just outside the top ten. Both Mikey McDonagh and Jordy Lawler won a CS this year, reaping 10,000 points, and both have failed to deliver since.
In the four years the Changa has been running, no male surfer has won a comp and not qualified. The exceptions are CT surfers who’ve won on the Changa while competing sporadically.
In the women, four surfers: Luana Silva, Teresa Bonvalot, Bronte Macauley, and Erin Brooks, have all won a CS and failed to qualify - the result of the same points but half the qualifying spots as the men.
Here are the men's rankings going into Saquarema.
Last year also saw six events on the Changa and the men’s cut line was 17,120. Gut feel says the line will be slightly lower this year. Say, around 16,500. Already Sammy Pupo, Ian Gouveia, and Alejo Muniz have qualified - or more accurately, requalified - while Miggy Pupo, who’s currently on 17,275, has provisionally qualified - again adding the ‘re’ prefix.
Below Miggy, the clean skins begin: George Pittar, Edgard Groggia, Jackson Bunch, M-Rod (another requalifier) and Joel Vaughan. Each of these surfers are carrying a 1,700 or 1,900, so they have to reach the quarters to start bettering their current points total.
Immediately below Joel - just 100 points behind - is Cleland Jr, Mikey McDonagh, Marco Mignot, and Jordy Lawler, who are all carrying big scores and dropping small ones.
Of these surfers, Jordy is most disadvantaged as he doesn’t have a seeding into the Round of 64. He’d have to surf every heat up until at least the Semis to be within a shot of the cut line. He won at Narra without a seeding, can he do it at Saqua?
Mikey has a seed so he skips a round, and also would only have to make the Quarters to again be within reach of the cut line - keeping in mind that 17,275 may shift about. In other words, he has to make three heats.
Above Mikey is Callum who needs to make the Quarters to start adding to his total (he’s tossing out 1,700 points - 25th place) but really needs to make the Semis to have any chance of qualifying. He hit good form in Portugal so he’ll be hoping to carry that through to Brazil.
Tied with Callum is Cleland Jr who may be able to qualify by reaching the Quarters, though a Semis finish will lock it in.
Currently in ninth is Joel Vaughan, just a few hundred ahead of Cleland, Callum, and Mikey. Joel has to reach the Quarters to start making ground (tossing out 1,900 - 17th place). A Quarter-Final finish would leave him on 16,045 and open to being overtaken. Semis would put him on 17,385 and much safer. It’d have to be his best result of the year.
The next Australian is George Pittar who’s sitting in fifth spot and just below the imaginary cut line. Throwing out 1,900 for a 17th place, George has to make the Quarters to begin accruing points. Anything under that leaves him vulnerable to big movers coming from behind.
Onto the women.
In the women, three of the five spots are already sewn up with two requalifiers - Sal and Isabella - and one clean skin in Bella Kenworthy. This leaves two spots, currently filled by Erin Brooks and Nadia Erostarbe - who has a 2,500 lead over sixth placed Vahine Fierro and Luana Silva (who are tied).
Last year the cut line for the women was 22,275 and it’s likely to be similar this year. This means Erin Brooks has provisionally made it, yet regardless she’ll be throwing out a lower number (1,700) than anyone within striking range so has to do less work to solidify her position. If she makes the Round of 16 her points will accrue.
Keep in mind, Erin Brooks won at Saquarema last year.
This realistically leaves just one spot to be filled, currently occupied by Erostarbe on 21,660. Erostarbe, who came third at Saquarema last year, has to make the Quarters to add to her total. In her favour, Vahine or Luana have to make the Semis to overtake those points.
Back in eighth position, Alyssa Spencer and Yolanda Hopkins are tied on 17,555 and each would have to place first or second to overtake Erostarbe’s current points.
Bronte Macauley is in ninth and would have to win the comp to assure qualification. A second-placed finish would land her on 21,950, which could possibly get her in, though it'd depend on how the five aspirants above her finished.
The Corona Saquarema Pro starts Saturday October 12the and runs through to the 20th. The outlook is for an active swell cycle during the whole waiting period. With no shortage of swell, organisers will be looking for windows of lighter winds.
PS: This update was compiled by someone with an adult learner level of mathematics. No need to bray about it if you find an error. Just whack it in the comments and I'll fix it up.
Comments
I'd like to see Morgan (re)qualifying! For some reason, I enjoy his surfing. Close to impossible, by the looks of it. I think Mateus would do well in the CT as well.
"No need to bray about it if you find an error". Haha, so funny!
Hope Callum requalifies. Not too excited about many of the surfers. Like the surfing of Pupo brothers, and Pittar. Don’t know about Bunch or the other Aussies. Dread to see another year of Alejo on tour and don’t want Groggia to make it, though he probably will. Looks to be the type who might take steroids. This year’s ten qualifiers might provide an argument to cut the tour to 28.
Edit: hopefully Cleland makes tour also.
I love Alejo's surfing.
Same ! , his dedication to following his coach,s mantra 'head down bum up' has almost been beyond replication . Not sure if its casual natural style or complete lack of emotion that draws me in . Go Alejo
Alejo surfs like a clothesline. I don't understand how someone who has been competing for over 15 years hasn't seen footage of themselves and thought a change in technique might be helpful. Surely a coach would have pointed this out to him at some point and said that it needs work. I watched the quarterfinal between him and Groggia last week. Groggia claimed five waves in 20 minutes. It's like a sneeze, he can't help himself. Yet another bloke who can hack and bash his way to some heat wins in slop but will be found out in CT conditions. As for Pittar, I like his rail work but that upper body needs adjusting. Too much movement.
Disclaimer: I can barely do a cutback so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
Still way too many guys on the tour. The field needs culling big time.
I’ve got no interest in seeing any of the guys on that list surf on tour except Al Cleland.
how's jarvis' (earle) chances? he's not far outside the top ten but prob needs a decentish result?
Probably needs to win I reckon.
Could possibly scrape in with a second but would need a bit more to go his way.
A win puts him at 18,685.
2nd place at 16,485
2023 10th place was 17,120
11th was 16,130
Saquarema surf yesterday (Monday):
?si=YhvFsltA5xT2hHZdCrazy to think that they got waves like that off a forecast of 0.8m of swell at 10s. Why is Saquarema always so shyte when the comps are on?
BTW spare a thought for poor Jacob Wilcox. Like Stu wrote in his recent article about slabs, the man has spent 10 years slaving away in the crap waves, made the CT once and then has probably failed to requalify. When he could have been charging slabs and doing trips instead like his peers...
Spent the past 10 years getting paid to surf for a living. Poor bloke.
But yeah, I’d like to see him on tour in pumping waves
I'm a big Jacob fan...love his surfing in good waves, but he didn't requalify from two critical priority errors which lost him heats. One at Pipe and I can't remember the other one exactly...but those two heat wins would have got him over the cut line.
In my opinion it was his competing not his surfing that wasn't CT level.
Wow, waves look really good.
They surfing the right down the other end of the beach?
As far as I understood, it's the same spot where the CT usually is, Point de Itaúna.
Fuck that was worth watchin...
just taking the piss....
Looks super fun.
Not sure I’d fork out for a surf trip to Brazil tho.
Aussies going through a lean patch on the changa? There’s a reasonable chance that Pittar is the only one to make it. Grim.
Here’s hoping.
Joel Vaughan's perfect 10 from last year at Saquarema:
Caught with a 2.30 in his total, Joel was eliminated in the following heat for a 25th.
Still, great air.
So lofty, highest ever? Amazing how well he timed the backwash.
spewing wilcox is not in the mix
I was looking at how the 2024 Championship Tour rookies went. Obviously, it is super tough for rookies:- unfamiliar venues, unfamiliar hoopla, seeded against the highest seeds, the dreaded cut before you feel settled.
I could be wrong, but I think this is the complete list.
MEN
Crosby Colapinto (made the cut)
Cole Houshmand (made the cut)
Eli Hanneman (missed the cut and unlikely to re-qualify)
Kade Matson (missed the cut and won’t re-qualify)
Jacob Wilcox (missed the cut and won’t re-qualify)
WOMEN
Sawyer Lindblad (made the cut)
Alyssa Spencer (missed the cut and unlikely to re-qualify)
That's all correct, Wally.
Interestingly, since it began in 2021 the CS has provided - at least for the men - an almost exact split between new qualifiers and requalifiers.
Ten places so five new and five returning. This year is set to keep the pattern.
next year the cs starts early in march
no more re treads
Why would they start the CS before the cut?
I would be interested to find out if The Cut has affected rookie survival rates.
I'm really not excited at all by the 15 men listed above. Maybe Mikey, but not really
Does 7 out of 10 Brazilian currently qualifying a reflection of the poor waves challenger are held in other than snapper?
And throw an air in any heat and judges just love you,sorry Joel
A complete joke and no regard to power surfing
When will any head judge have the balls to state up front that airs will not be overscored
A few heats I bothered to watch at Portugal guys just throwing one shit air and gets through a heat
Joel even doing them without priority ,flicks out to surfer with priority and gets a score
Compare him to say morgs rail game
As for the brazzo who wants to see some of those guys again just making up numbers
If anyone saw the Mateus herdy v pupo in the quarters I don’t understand how Mateus lost.
Thought the judging was cooked
Yeah Sammy was juiced
Any non brazzo trying to get a result to qualify will be up against no doubt Brazilian based judges
Perhaps you're new to watching pro surfing, but the events have five judges each from a different nation.
Classic .
So out of the 6 brazilians in the top 10, five have been on tour before and the rest of the field have not been on the CT previously. What does this say about the state of the challenger series and the depth of brazilian surfing? Not a criticism just a question.....
Seems to be a different style of judging from one tour to the other. Same guys get on the CT and the same guys get cut.....
Really hope Al Cleland gets on BTW
I whipped out the spreadsheet last night, played with some scenarios, and I reckon George Pittar will be safe even if he doesn't get a result. It would take an unlikely combination of surfers in specific placings to knock him off. I'm estimating a cut-off mid-15,000s and can see plenty of scenarios where it could be even lower.
For last year's rankings, 10th spot before the final event was 14,630. Compare that to 10th spot this time of 13,100. The points have been shared between a larger group of surfers this year.
Couple of points to note:
- The cut line in 2022 was 15770 points (that was best 4 out of 7 results). So, it's possible (read: probable) that 17,000 points will not be required this year. I'm certain Miggy is in and 99% certain Pittar is in.
- The article says that Callum, Joel, and George need to make the quarters to start improving on their points. Not correct. A ninth (3320 points) will start improving on their totals.
- Jordy Lawler is in the round of 64 (heat 10). I like his chances against Hiroto Ohhara and Luke Slijpen. Conditions will suit him and I would consider his opponents in that heat to be a favourable draw.
- A few people have commented that Willcox can't make it. If he wins, he'll go to 18,340 points. If he comes second, he'll go to 16,140 points. I reckon he's still alive. Semis won't be enough but a finals appearance should be.
Lots of potential friendly fire amongst the Aussies in the Round 64 at Saq.
Also, has Jacko Baker been injured this year or just totally had a shocker?
He had a big injury at some point. Was it before the season? Not sure but I think he broke his foot back then.
Something that seems to have been overlooked in all the comments is the fact Qantas are sponsoring the tour this year.
That's a major coup i'd imagine for the WSL. And probably a big tick for the new CEO.
Wondering if that means the whole tour including judges, media and surfers are flown around the world courtesy of Qantas free of charge and maybe even helping out with some accomodation. That's gotta cut costs.
And no doubt any time you board one of their flights there's going to be surfing plastered all over their advertising and inflight mags.
Putting politics aside of their dubious operations of ripping off the common man in the last decade or so, it's gotta make an Aussie swell with a little bit of patriotic pride to see the flying kangaroo backing the world tour of proffesional surfing. This ain't no Lexus or Fosters or Corona. These are the biggest of the big dogs. Maybe a bit of a shift of focus back towards the Aussie consumer?
Cutting Sunset is fucked though.
Had to laugh today thinking of Nth Shore, the cheesiest (and much loved) surf film in history which portrayed a surfing nobody winning a comp in a wave pool to win a ticket to hawaii and got to compete in the Pipe masters. Now it's the other way around. Pipe straight to a tub. Madness.
I completely overlooked this, but I think you're onto something re: Qantas. I wonder what convinced them to get on board with the WSL. Didn't Air Tahiti Nui and Hawaiian airlines also used to be involved? I was thinking with the comp in Abu Dhabi that maybe Etihad would get involved?
Hey @tailhigh. ha yeah probably got overlooked because i accidentally popped it on the wrong discussion.
Good point re. Etihad. Maybe Qantas saw an opportunity in that particular event and region.
Either way, it's going to be interesting to see how hard this partnership is pushed and what dividends it produces. As corny as it sounds it'll be kinda nice to see a the mighty flying kangaroo logo on a battling brazzo requalifiers jersey. hehe. Especially if it's a scenario like Flippy screaming at the judges on the Winkipop steps. It's undeniably a symbolic representation of Australia on the world stage. Get em Skippy!!
Almost forgot about this kid. Serious ripping in this edit. Says he'll be back competing next year after having a few off to finish Uni. Looks promising. Nice Cameo from his boss Julian too.
Fitzgibbons, Kenworthy, Nicholls, Brooks
all in.
It’s on today by the looks.
Saquerema actually looks like a fairly nice place - anyone been there?
I’ll never go, just curious
Next heat looks tough:
McDonogh, Wilcox, Matson, and Owen Moss
Mikey having a melt?
Poor Mikey is self imploding: bombed a routine turn, had priority and lost for a poor paddle choice ………….unenviable position to miss tour after winning a CS. No where near CT level at the moment unfortunately.
Hopefully has some good people around him.
Made something of that last wave. Maybe?
Surfing for a 3.6 and just flubbs the second turn
think the overall winner will be the english google captions on the portuguese feed..
Aussie bloodbath
Morgs dodged two bullets at the end of his heat to advance. Very lucky neither of the last minute waves didn’t score high enough, both were 50/50
Tough stuff.
Looks so hard to surf- wobbly weird left and a windy close-out right.
Might see Chippo make a run hopefully.
Jacko!!!!! Huge effort
So Mikey's out, can't make it now, nor can Callum. George Pittar out but 'should' make the cut. Joel Vaughan left fighting, as are Jordy and Chippo.
Tough day.
The cards are falling into place.
Absolutely gutted for Mikey.
This is a guy tailor made for CT surfing- big, strong bodied natural foot who will win plenty of heats and possibly events at Snapper, J-Bay, Bells, El Sal and Margies.
Could not find a decent heat to back up that win.
That will be a crushing disappointment.
I saw him just after the Snapper win and he was absolutely cock-a-hoop, glowing with the energy of a thousand suns.
Saw him just before he went to Portgual and the poor fella looked in pain,
Yeah he'd be hurting, as would Callum. Mikey surfed 5 events after Snapper and failed at all. Made some horrific mistakes today in a heat he had the ability and opportunity to easily make it through.
I'm not saying he's not a talented surfer, he clearly is. So is Baker, Cibilic, Walters, Simkus, Robson, Wilcox and co.
He's doing it with the full backing of Rip Curl and the Australian Gov (HPC), which is more than can be said for most.
There are so many good surfers getting tangled up on this tour. You definitely need a fair amount of luck but I see it coming down to temperament and stable psychology if you're getting anywhere near the CT and staying on.
Sounds like he's fully blown it. What happened in the other events?
he lost first round.
Few tight heats in shitty conditions (that could have gone his way), lost confidence, imploded.
Bummer.
Celebrated far too early....
Had a shocker today
I was listening and driving
Salazar offffh
He called it.
Just not mentally ready? Sounds like he’s still prone to making basic mistakes?
Long flight home for Mikey.
Snapper must feel like an eon away.
Gee Mateus Herdy belongs on the CT - he needs to get the W here and he'd storm that tour I reckon. The second coming of Felipe
After the ten-point ride and with five mins to go he paddled in. Left his opponents to it.
Haven't seen a flex like that for a while.
He's a cocky little fella that's for sure.
I dunno, I've seen his post heat interviews and he's always been really calm and respectful. I remember watching him in an interview at Snapper earlier this year with Jet Schilling and some other American. They were carrying on like twits and dropping F bombs while Stace was trying to interview them and Mateus was just looking at them like: WTF guys, chill. He also doesn't claim like a lot of the Brazilians. He will occasionally but not to the extent that others do. I've never thought he was cocky and can't find a reason to dislike him.....yet.....Maybe he paddled in early to save energy and not risk injury? I dunno I didn't watch the heat and only saw the highlights.
I like him. But listen to the Stab podcast with him in it. Very confident, strongly opinionated. Nothing wrong with it.
Deffo CT standard surfer.
Still young but dropped by his major sponsors.
Disagree. Good showpony but lacks power.
I wonder how much more different results yesterday would have been if comp was at Haleiwa and not wobbly shitful Saquarema in front of the intense Brazillian surf fans.
Aussies always did well at Haleiwa.
Yeah him and Al Cleland should get the call up. All the rest I couldn't care less about, Aussie or not.
So most likely scenario from here is just the one Aussie (Pittar) qualifying?
he is from vanaw...
Aussie men currently holding positions 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 22 - brutal
And Brazil with six of the current top ten, five of whom are requalifiers, the sixth, Edgard Groggia, will be 28 when he surfs his first CT.
Strange times.
...meanwhile, 2%ers nowhere to be seen.
0%ers.
Good news for next year though, as surfers who finish 10-20 automatically re-qualify for the CS without having to qualify through their region. This is good for Australia as its looking like we'll have about 6 guys guaranteed for next year plus the top 8 or 10 from our region. Those are seriously strong numbers for us. Could have up to 18 Aussies on the CS next year.
I dunno - more isn't always more..............
I'd really love to see an indepth report into Australian professional surfing success and the HPC - I don't see it translating at all (and acknowledge could be a fairly prickly subject to write about).
I think we're going to have to wait for Dane Henry until we get something new and exciting to cheer for on the male side.
Especially given that skateboarding has returned 3(?) gold medals since its inclusion in the Olympics.
Agree. Would love to see a swellnet exposé into why that is. Totally agree that it's not translating. I made this comment last week asking what Australia has coming through after Ethan and Jack, and the answer is: Not a lot. It makes me wonder how guys like Mick and Joel did it back in the day. I understand that they had Phil McNamara as a coach but it's not like either of them came from well off beach families with heaps of resources and training facilities around. I get that other countries are on the way up, but it truly feels like we've gone backwards with each generation. In terms of success, the Julian, Owen, Wilko generation was a step down from the Mick, Joel, Taj crew. Then after that the Freestone, Callinan, Banting, Carmichael crop was an even bigger slide. Apart from a brief reprieve with Jack and Ethan, the trend in terms of both raw ability and comp success seems to be trending down. Not sure how we fix it.
My guess is if the HPC folded tomorrow it would make no difference to our results.
Keeps plenty of people in jobs, keeps surfing in the spotlight and the next generation of soccer dads are falling over themselves to pay the place to coach their little mick fanning.
I met this kid in the surf a while ago. His family moved him from WA so he could go to Lindisfarne Grammer (10-15k/year) and then have the privilege of joining the HPC surfing academy linked to the school for another 10K / year!
Don’t know what the young fella is up to now but it ain’t winning pro juniors.
The " system" failed. Jack wasn't part of the system.
What are the permutations for Joel, Jordan, Morgs and Jake W?
Any of them still a shot?
My non-comp brain calculates that they all have a mathematical chance, pending other results.
I thinking you’ve already got more than 5000 points and win the comp you’re probably in. Otherwise they’ll do it tough.
Cool. It’s 10000 for a win and 6000 something for a 3rd, so figured a finals finish might be enough for a couple of them. (Pending other results, of course).
Joel 13205
Jordan 12650
Morgan 11860
Jacob 11660
Morgan and Jacob’s totals include 3025 already secured for this comp
Joel and Jordan’s include 1700 already secured for this comp.
My brain hurts. I never really pay much attention to it tbh.
Hard to find any year-to-year patterns in the CS. There's the lone surfer working their way up the rankings via improved seedings. George Pittar is a good example: from the back 50, to 19th, to currently 5th.
But checking those past years I also note names of great surfers who've now disappeared. Kalani Ball, Sheldon Simkus, Eithan Osborne, Jett Schilling, Dylan Moffat, among many. All of 'em in with a chance two years ago, yet may as well be on the moon now.
Same goes with national push. Where are the 2%ers that were going to take over pro surfing? Not a single surfer in the CS top 20.
What does that all mean..?
Feels like the average CS campaign is short and (hopefully) bright, as opposed to the sustained QS warrior of old. Chuck all your money on red, for just a year or two, and it may pay off - as we're seeing with George, who has an umbrella sponsor BTW - or ditch it and get a landscaping diploma.
The churn is real.
There is one clear pattern. Starts with B. Ends with L.
Writes letters of complaints at the highest level of competition when things don't go their way, have the most critical event of re-qualilfying on their home turf along with fans that post death threats online for trivial contest results and have just churned out another 6 journeymen who will most likely not blow minds when the surf goes north of 6-8ft.
Nah, last two years they've posted only two qualifiers for the CT. The year before that just one.
2024 has thrown up a confluence of Brazilian journeymen in a similar way 2023 featured six Americans.
No pattern to be found.
Fair enough. I feel better for my whinge nevertheless.
Despite several BR names, most are veterans. They are talented consistent surfers, but unlikely to blow minds in any surf, not only north of 6-8 ft. Unlike the women's, the men's tour doesn't seem to have obvious up-rising stars (a la JJF, FT, Medina, JW when teenagers) of any nationality.
Re. the death threats: It was some online coward who completely disappeared and cancelled the account once he saw he screwed up. So funny how this card keeps being used...
Death threats aside, outraged Brazillians in the comments section on social media is one of the worst things about modern competitive surfing.
Without actual evidence, I'd still b willing to bet EE isnt the only pro surfer to cop death threats from the mob over there.
Isnt that why Slater stopped going there?
Admittedly I am no expert on the topic, but IMO real killers tend to not publicize that they plan to kill someone.
Haha. I'll take that as a veiled threat @pvfloripa!!
hehe. Just kidding.
Yeah true. What a weird state of mind to take a surf contest outcome so personally though hey.
Good feedback above by the way.
Sure thing, @SRaw. Online threats are left to Instagram. The Swellnet forum is a safe and welcoming gentlemen's/ladies club :D
Griff had a lot of threats one year after winning in El Salvador I think. So medina arranged for griff to stay with him for the Brazil comp
Griff had a lot of threats one year after winning in El Salvador I think. So medina arranged for griff to stay with him for the Brazil comp
Full retreads on the CT next year Grogan has a great name
Old grog bog
what is the context of the 2%er tag- assuming it refers to rich Californians ?
Lawler out.
Joel Vaughan is very likeable
George Pittar qualified
Awesome!
Dylan shredding
Yes he is. Hopefully he gets it done.
Far out that Frenchy Mignon can tear some big turns.
Heck, Alejo Muniz does have crook style. Makes Jacko Baker look like Tom Curren.
And Al Cleland is out, aye.
Joel Vaughan just qualified. Congratulations!
There’s nearly more footage of over zealous Brazilian dads than the actual surfing.
Well done to Joel. Of the qualifiers, for me the most deserving.
I would have liked to see Cleland.
He’d be entertaining in the juice.
Brutal round of 16 for the Aussies that still had a slight chance. Cibilic, Vincent, Moffat and Willcox all knocked out. Was kinda hoping at least one of them would make it through to quarters to keep it interesting. Hope Jacko Baker takes it out.
Why isn’t Jacko baker on the rankings has he not done one CS event yet?