2024 Finals Day Primer
2024 Finals Day Primer
WSL Finals
September 6 - 14th (to be run on one day)
Read the forecast here
Almost certainly we'll see Finals Day run this weekend in lacklustre surf in the midst of a lacklustre run of swell for Southern California.
That would seem a fitting send off to Trestles as the Finals Day location. Since it was conceived, Trestles has been lambasted by fans for its lack of consequence and drama befitting the single-day title-deciding shoot-out.
Whether the Finals Day concept should exist at all is a bigger question and we'll see how that shakes down if we get a day of days at Cloudbreak next September. I suspect the thinking could become more amenable to a Finals Day if we do. In theory, it could be epic. I'd like to see it expanded a little. Top 10, not top 5, and held over two days, not one. That would solve some of the lassitude we see in the back half of the tour once surfers drop out of contention. It would double the pool of finals aspirants and thus double the motivation for the back half of the tour. Or we could trash the Final 5 shootout altogether. I'd just like to see the concept explored to its limit before the sport becomes the plaything of the sheikhs.
Back to Trestles, with a quick assessment for those who have never surfed the break. You walk off the cobblestones and paddle around the left. It's a very easy and undemanding paddle out. The peak is well defined, vaguely shifty, and there is normally no current. It's a set-up that almost completely removes any athletic or cardiovascular conditioning requirements. Swells come from a long way away, there are large gaps between sets to paddle back out, and 'running the table' from fifth to first, as Steph Gilmore did in 2022, would not bring fatigue into play for any moderately fit surfer, let alone a full time CTer.
The wave is easy to ride, with a consistent sloping curve that runs down the line at a nice, easy pace. It favours the full-blooded rail turn - which explains Jordy Smith's past success there - and any kind of progressive approach as long as it is executed with amplitude and precision. In contrast, small, flat spin airs look lame in the absence of any real critical sections. Hold that thought when considering John Florence.
Molly at Pipeline (WSL/Heff)
Onto the women's Final 5. First match-up between Tati and Pickles. We need to talk about Molly. This is a surfer who has experienced a devastating loss of form. In the post-cut, back half of the year she's surfed eleven heats - thirteen if you count the Olympics. She's made double figures (10 point heat total) in only five of those heats. How many excellent rides do you think our fourth ranked surfer has logged since May?
Zero.
Not a single excellent wave score to her name for the entire back half of the year, including the Olympics.
Meanwhile, she logged five excellent rides at Pipe alone.
Tati to win with a pair of mid 6's.
And then to breeze past Brisa who surfed a tight heat to lose to Gilmore in her lone Finals Day appearance in 2022.
Caity winning Pipeline (WSL/Bielmann)
Slow Trestles with the occasional head high set; a ruffle just showing from the northwest as Tati and Caz Marks hit the water. Caz is the current World Champ and 'lympic Gold Medallist. She is not the best female surfer in the world. Competitively she's found a way to win with safe, solid surfing. Since the cut, a single excellent wave score (apart from the Olympics where she dropped two) and six heats over double figures. Caz can throw out high 6's to 7's all day long with zero risk at Trestles and this will likely get the W over Tati.
Caity Simmers is the best female surfer in the world, or at least right there with Erin Brooks. If Caity lands an air or nails a first ride she will smoke Caz. Any hint of a choke and Caz will run over her in her seven-axle B double.
Caz for back to back World Titles.
Caroline at Teahupoo (WSL/Sloane)
We all think John has been the best surfer on tour this year, and the numbers back that up. Even questioning it seems sacrilegious.
It does warrant some analysis. It's been a good, though not dominant year for John. He's made four finals and lost three of them. Well beaten by Barron at Pipe, Jack Robbo at Margarets, and Italo in Tahiti. His sole win came from a victory over Yago in El Salvador.
People have lost titles with better years.
Examples: In 2012 Kelly came second in the world (to Parko) despite wins at Fiji, Trestles, and France, plus a runner-up placing at Bells.
In 2013 he again came second (this time to Mick) after wins at Kirra, Fiji, and Pipe, plus a runner-up placing in Tahiti.
If these incredibly dominant years can't result in world titles then we shouldn't get too upset if John continues his finals form this year and fails to close it out for his third world title.
John winning El Salvador (WSL/Hughes)
So much can go wrong for John.
He'll be sitting there all day, à la Carissa Moore, while the pressure ratchets up, unable to surf to calm the nerves (as we know he likes to do) watching someone come for him with form, all warmed up and surfed in. It's highly likely he will be entering the water as the surf deteriorates due to onshore winds. You can almost smell that desperation that we saw from Carissa as the slow motion nightmare unfolded around her. A silent scream to the unyielding fates that goes unanswered. John trudging up the cobblestones head bowed, wondering what the fuck just happened.
The first match-up should be tight. Low confidence call but if two sets break in the heat and are evenly distributed between the surfers Ethan should win with low risk, high performance rail surfing. If Italo can get an air game happening from Jump Street all bets are off.
I'm discounting Jack Robinson's chances based on previous form at Trestles. Two starts, two losses - they weren't even competitive heats.
Griff winning Portugal (WSL/Poullenot)
Griff has the most flexible attack of the current five. He can surf purely on rail if sets are slow and every wave needs to be a score, or he can go high-fi if a flurry of waves show up.
He's funny, he's smart, and he's learned a devastating way of intimidating opponents with humour. Momentum is a very real thing in sports and after winning Fiji less than a fortnight ago Griff is coming into this Finals Day with a wet sail, as my Granddad used to say.
Griff for the first male Californian World Title since Tom Curren in 1990.
// STEVE SHEARER
Comments
Interesting take on a boring subject. For mine, piss the Top 5 off...piss the cut off and go back to the best surfer of the year winning (or something like it) with the risk of a year end blow out by someone sitting below 35th for interests sake.
But thats just my view and I stopped caring about this snooze fest years ago
I hope you’re wrong Steve and John gets that third title he deserves. He can then drop mic and exit the WSL circus.
Apparently Wazzl surfers agreed to the top 5 method.
I'm old school and would prefer we go back to the best surfer of the year. But the Wazzl wouldn't dare say they have stuffed it up!
Same goes for Trestles. What a boring crap wave. Why not hold it in the next forecasted pumping swell. Fark it could have been held at Winkipop this week!!
Oi Wazzl get back to the Dream Tour and if you dare hold the LA Olympics in the GOAT pool our relationship is over!!
Griff doesnt complete his turns, he just hacks at the lip. He can't lose.
Hard to read the pulse on this one. Three days out from a title decider and there's little but a distant buzz, about the same as if the Ericeira Changa was approaching.
Froth levels are high!
Greta write up.
Ewing & Marks
Ethan too big, fast & powerful.
Caz glue foot backside attack. Trestles is her bread & butter.
If surf comes in "warm" at upper end, then EE.
If it is undersized I think smaller bodies and more varied repertoires will be favoured.
In the 80's Pipe was I think a four star event, and as such was worth heaps more points than any other event. It led to some pretty exciting days of surfing... like the time Barton won. That's what WSL could do now. Have as Pipe the last event and make it worth twice or even three times the points. That way there'll usually be a few people in contention for the world title every year. If you're far enough ahead on points by Pipe to be untouchable then you deserve to be world champion.
The only risk being that you get conditions like those when Michel Bourez won a few years ago (i.e. 2ft) and someone comes from 7th to win and take out the championship. Would seem just as unjust as the top points scorer for the year being taken out at Trestles by someone in 5th place having a good day.
Yeah, that's a good point. Perhaps since so much would be riding on the outcome of Pipe they could extend the waiting period out to three weeks.
Well that's a very interesting take freeride76 , seeing some early footage and it seems John has been posted up surfing lowers in all kinds of conditions . Looks in sizzling form I might add.
I watched a young John surf the 2010 hurley qs event, absolutely smashed it.
John really likes lowers.
Griff yeah nah
Italo darkhorse.wind pending
Jack long odds
EE slim chance
Women's
Brissa long odds
Tati real slim chance
Last year Molly rode her bike there from San Clemente dodging with buses.( save your energy for surfing )
Caitlin too indecisive not enough mental gusto
Caz , not sure her seed, great rhythm last year.
Forecast looks kinda iffy could be a real slow, wave catching patiently type game .
You'd fall asleep out there, some times there's twenty minutes between sets.
........
I've seen JJF's footy.
It's solid surfing but he'll get eaten alive by any of the top 5 based on that form.
Needs to improve 30% at least on that to be competitive.
Watching from the beach last year was interesting.
Jack look very in form before the contest
Then kinda fizzed in his heat.
Is this the biggest mind melter in surfing.
Just erodes the surfers psyche....
You'd have to think 3rd time around Robbo will have a decent crack at taking it. The smaller conditions might actually work to his advantage...he has got flair in the small stuff.
lol
wake up steve
I might add it's been a very slow 5 weeks over here. It's like huey just turned the wave button off.
It will be interesting to see if they cop fog for the first swell day. I remember one year it was all foggy and gloomy .
If anything I hope there's no southwind fog event , that is not fun.
I really would like to know what filipe is thinking right now ?
Q: Hey John…how come you couldn’t win another world title?
A: Well I had some bad luck with injuries and I wasn’t the best surfer at fat slow 2ft onshore beachies
Right. Ok.
Gonna be interesting to see who can pick the best waves, which will originate from the SSW. They'll be very inconsistent though - occasionally fifteen minutes or more between waves.
However there will be two other swells in the water. A long range NW groundswell (sourced from a low south of the Aleutians) and some WNW short period swell (sourced from a local fetch through the Channel Islands) will increase the perceived consistency of the lineup, but wave quality will differ depending on which swell is providing the energy and whether there is interference from the other swells trains (Lowers prefers SW thru S swells... NW or WNW swells are less ideal).
Perhaps local knowledge may be a great benefit in this case.
what day we looking at them running do you think?
Friday most likely (Sat 1am our time) otherwise Sat (Sun 1am our time) will be the only other backup.
good stuff! thanks.
i'll set the vcr to record.
Ha Ha. What's this VCR thing and where can I get one!!
So is Griff painting the town red again?
Pranks are the flavour this year, hilarious pranks on the other 4 surfers.
Hopefully the big fella is avoiding the ‘keggers’ and back patting parades. Would be a worthy WC in my book. Very rounded surfer.
With giant banners on the freeway , every power pole plastered with your head .
You'd think it would be slightly playing on griffs psychology
You have 3 or 4 heats surfing a wave you grew up on and your are world champ.
Tough to lose on the water harder to lose on land.
Prove me wrong I just don't see griff having the same skill set as the other competitors.
Are you over there Lanky? You American?
If John loses reckon he’ll go on again next year?
I don’t.
With the shift to cloudy, maybe?
Yeah, true.
Every heat that John paddles out for he advertises his own brand .
Plastered right across his shoulders.
You'd be crazy to retire the jersey considering John surfing in contests is the biggest form of florence advertising.
To go off and freesurf limiting exposure, competing with nathan on YouTube for clicks and likes?
Or retire? sounds way off ......
Let's give it up for the dazzling-dentured Oklahoman SUP rider and his string of good decisions!
Ha! The stench of his legacy lingers even after he paddled off into the sunset on his SUP......
I wonder if he's heard Swellnet is 'now hiring'.
His departure would have to be the best kept secret in surfing ever.
@ stunet, final 5 format was the brain child of Travis Logie, according to prodan .
Heck I like trestles as the location.
I thought it was Dirks. He mentioned changing the finals format in his 'Waterman of the Year' speech.
Could be wrong though, I often am.
i dont think itll be surfable
Grifted a few world titles to some and will again the whole final 5 is crud a bit like the wsl and there claiming of equal everything they do on tour
If I were John and Caity I wouldn’t get down there early at all. Warm up surfing somewhere else, then chill out - away. Almost turn up not knowing who you’re against, because as if it matters.
This thing is all mental.
If Jjf need to warm up to win why cant he go surf elsewhere and turn up ringing wet and win?
He could but there's no realistic Trestles analogue wave nearby.
And with his dicky knees it would be a risk.
I don't profess to be a well-travelled surfer but I have surfed a bit around trestles and there are kilometres and kilometres of very similar wave set ups along that coastline just following the train line, cottons, uppers, middles?
and if trestles is sub-par, isn't the rest of it too? what a lully dribble-a-thon world contest decider it shall be
I feel like some surfers simply had world champ aura from their mid teens, like Kelly, Mick, Gabriel, Filipe, Taj, Parko, Jordy and John.
In this year's lot, apart from John, I think only Jack brought that impression as a teenager...
Anyway, John has been through so many injuries and is number one. He deserves the win!
Surely they need to allow some slots for number 1 and 2 to warm up ?
If the final 5 is unfair
The final 10 would be twice as unfair
Maybe 4 out of 5 pros think it’s a good idea
But I think the whole thing should be scrapped
I reckon it could be more palatable if they found a way to give an advantage to the surfer with the better rank. Maybe they get an extra 5 minutes at the start of the heat on their own. Kind of like a head start from F1 pole.
It really does suck for the No 1 that there’s a fair bet they’ll be surfing in worse conditions once they hit the water. Just leaves a bigger element of chance to the mix.
surf-forecasy.com actually rates it as zero then hahaha wsl going to be eaten alive after this one,
Then again if John John and Caity win all will be forgiven as the rightful winners. On the other hand a come from behind story and controversy best for eyes and stories to be told.
JJF has been in the lead for the entire year.
That isnt dominant ??
Not according to the WSL if you’re unlucky at 1 ft Trestles
The manufactured drama, its coming up short.
Like a can of spam at a steak lunch.
These are prime cut surfers, lean, mean shredding machines, literally, the best of the best, the real deal, but let's face it, the drama is fake.
Maybe Elo, or whichever damned soul who came up with this abomination, can pretend it's real but not elite athletes, they're getting paid to surf off for a world title, lacerated the lip, aggressive downcarving, boost the highway, that kind of thing, they're not here for their acting abilities.
Oh, and theres another tiny pointy little problem, It's a title they don't even want, because it comes with a giant asterisk .*_*.
If you are determined to persist with this Punch & Judy pantomime at least give them some boxing gloves, the big ones.
Let's Gooo
I guess the other way this format could work was if you took the top 5 and had the surf the same heats. Yet at the finish of the final
Who ever wins gets the 10 000 points
Whoever comes second get 6500
3rd 4th 5th
Then add the points to the overall points
Riss would have won every year then .
That actually makes perfect sense Deano, which probably excludes it from being implemented by the WSL ?
You sent us crowd shots from Trestles last year with Mr McConaughey et al. smoozing their way around the cobblestones? Californicating.
The best of the best at a high performance small wave venue! What could go wrong??? Waves of consequence is what it's all about for me, sorting the chaff from the wheat so to say! This venue seems to lack that WOW factor we all look for from the best of the best contest surfers! Gabe's performances @ Teahupoo & to a lesser extent Cloudreak comes to mind!
Tell you what, if you rewatch the first heat below, Ethan could be considered quite unlucky. Felipe got pretty juiced with his high score (9).
&pp=ygUcZXRoYW4gZXdpbmcgdnMgZmlsaXBlIHRvbGVkbw%3D%3DAnother thing to note is the lack of quality in the 2nd heat - could be as good as it gets out there this Saturday morning.
https://m.
@ solitude,
That's a tough one to watch.
Geeze fil is unstoppable out there.
E E gifted him the winning wave in the second heat with nine minutes to go........
Priority mistake 101.
I’m in with a chance i suppose
face gif
I'm no betting man, but that's a nice return .
You put those bets on in Jan? @ shorey.
I put it on mid way, when Italo was struggling. I figured he’s the type that only needs to make the five to be a genuine threat
down 5 bucks
Brutal!
Nah, probably the best value $5 I spent all year, I think I spent triple just on coffee alone this morning. More than happy to see the rightful surfers take home the silverware.
Medina / Brookes for 2025…
Not a bad bet!
I can't help but chuckle at the attached picture of trestles. I just hope the new CEO can carry on the good work and swap g-land for medewi, sunzal for punta roca and hell, why not crescent head for snapper? Actually scrap the last one, they already have bells!
id bet even tho iam jjf boy. but serious cant we have full on fame rollers??
Apparently forecast suggest we could be looking at super contestable wave on Friday (sat Oz time) .
This 'world title' scenario is as laughable as the article itself. School bus driver turned 'surf journalist'? You take yourself much more seriously than is realistic. But it pays the rent, right Steve?
Dude, you sure are insecure to verbally attack someone who has been writing quality, insightful articles for many years. If not for the demise of print magazines, he certainly would be one of the best writers at one of the major surf publications.
Not just articles, quality forecasting too.
Airport shuttle bus driver mate.
Met some really interesting people doing that job.
Your opinion on the world title scenario is noted.
Hail to the busdriver -
He drinks and he cusses,
He stinks out the buses,
Hail 2 the busdriver,
Busdriver man.
Yeah right
You were taking all those jobs, from us taxi drivers. Lol
This is potentially a terrible take but I'm willing to put it in the public record and look silly later:
There won't be an Australian male world champion this decade AND I think a surfer from a non "big 3" country (Aus, USA, Brazil) will win one before the next Australian.
@only-sams you watch Jack go out and win it now!,
for the record im with FR76 Caity & Grif to win got $7s with sportsbet, (i dont think ive won a bet on surfing).
Great competion insights Steve.
It maybe hometown Hooray USA.
Love watching the pro's surfing in good waves.
If the competitors & judges had the opportunity to choose their 7 favourite surf locations, those places may not include crumbly Trestles or any number of two turn closeout spots on the tour.
Man, that is some ugly surfing in that first vid.
It may be unfashionable practicing acrobatic airs for the cold final finish and scoring some warm bonus barrels...
Could wear a colourful rashy & spray is boards with cool graphic designs. Love flam-boyant flow surfing toooo.
Whom would want to be king of the ....crumbs?
Sultan of speed would be more.... majestic
Terry Fitzgerald
One of the best at Jeffries More focused on down the line speed , and actually making the wave
Rather than trying to fit in cutbacks and reos , and not making the wave!
Pity about the skateboarding overlay , which is
never going to compare to pumping J Bay
Down the line speed doesn’t get you any points though!
Just saw from warm up footage from 2 foot trestles.
Ethan looking insane.
Caroline looking good enough to take it out for sure.
Italo very frantic. Backside looking pretty sharp, frontside so ugly.
Griff was falling a lot, looked a little slow next to Ethan.
Molly looked real bad. She was bogging, super slow.
No other contenders in this clip.
Expect Italo to win frantically, No other surfer with the ratio of complete high-risk maneuvers, fully trained in the pool.
High on immense doses of caffeine, coming from underneath and with no pressure, Italo is a beast on the loose at Trestles.
Nudge, nudge, Caity will do it, say no more, say no more...
Italo's fate is in the hands of the judges I reckon.
If they lowball his airs and frantic backhand turns like they have been doing, he's toast.
Easily capable of getting on a massive roll though- won't be phased by any other competitor.
Big John’s going to find it hard if it’s under head high. Like for like, Ethan has him for turns and speed there.
I feel John deserves to win…………but you know what, I’ll watch, but I seriously don’t really care who comes out on top.
Just doesn’t feel like cricket.
Hot weather in SoCal this afternoon - only 31C at the coast, but Palm Springs (~100km inland, over the mountains) reached 117F (47C).
Jeez - could that have any impact on the surf Ben, notably the winds?
No. Winds will be influenced by other factors, of which it'll end up being a bog standard summer's day locally (light variable early, light onshore mid-late morning, freshening NW breezes after lunch).
Oh it finished, didn't know it was running, right, well done JJF and Caity I guess.
All four Trestles WSL men’s final days (2021-2024) have been won by the number one seed i.e. the points leader going into the event.