Forecast: The Vivo Rio Pro
The Vivo Rio Pro
22nd June - 30th June
(all dates are local)
The South American leg of the Championship Tour continues...
And yes I know El Salvador - which was the last stop - isn’t actually in South America but I’m looking for a theme and that’s as close as I’ll get.
Nevertheless, Brazil is in the heart of South America and it’s where the CT finds itself for stop number eight, the Vivo Rio Pro, held on the beachbreaks of Saquarema.
Saquarema is the second-last stop of the regular tour, with Cloudbreak and the Finals Day yet to come.
From the men to the women, the ratings are vastly different. On the men’s side, John John has a commanding lead, now over 10,000 points clear of second-placed Jack Robinson. Runaway leads and Brazil aren’t a good mix for John, as his 2019 injury can attest. Struck down attempting an alley-oop, John surrendered a large lead - he’d won two of the first four contests - and only returned for Pipe. He finished the year in seventh place.
Still on the men’s side, the first three places outside the five are Brazilians and considering the form Gabriel, Italo, and (especially) Yago are carrying it would be a surprise not to see at least two of them jump into the five.
The women’s side of the draw is congested with less than 5,000 points separating the top five. Caity Simmers wears the gold but nothing is assured when the peloton is so bunched up.
It’d be great to say the contestants will be greeted with conditions befitting the spectacle, however that won’t be the case with highly mobile weather systems moving swiftly through the swell window during the waiting period.
Much like the Sydney and Hunter regions, Saquarema relies on swells from the south to south-east. It’ll be active from those directions, no doubt, but the organisers will struggle to bed down consecutive days of waves.
The first system of note is due to fire up off Argentina, generating a small fetch of strong winds aimed to the east - see image below. This isn’t ideal in either direction or strength, however it will create a short-lived pulse to 3-4ft for the second day of the waiting period. Size will ease through the day. Conditions look clean during the morning before fresh afternoon sea breezes kick in.
Smaller surf is then due for the following days, with the next pulse of swell due to arrive from the south-southeast later Tuesday but more so Wednesday. This will be generated by the remnants of a small low feeding into a much more significant polar storm, though far to the east and on the edge of Brazil’s swell window.
We should also see a good fetch of strong to gale-force southwest winds generating a moderate-size mid-period southeast swell that will spread up to Saquarema on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday morning. At this stage it looks to be in the 3-5 feet range with OK morning winds and afternoon sea breezes.
We may also see a weaker trough pushing up through the middle of the week, generating some additional mid-period southerly swell for the end of the week, though the models diverge regarding the make-up of this system. We'll keep an eye on its evolution as there's the possibility of it deepening into a strong low at the end of the period. It’s a low percentage scenario, and even if it were to develop it would likely arrive with lots of onshore wind. If that were the case, the WSL would preferably utilise the earlier and cleaner swells.
Comments
Well anyone guess how many waves I'll watch of this comp?
Last year I think I watched 3
Viva Brazil......
Bring back "The Dream Tour"!
FWIW Rio was on the Dream Tour.
It's been a mainstay of the tour since 1976.
Yolo Brazil....
Wasn't it further south in those days that has passable waves?
Watch out down there, you might get fired!
Like all previous years of the Brazil leg, I will probably only watch the highlighs if it makes it onto the nightly news........
Out of interest, what is the average viewing numbers on this comp? Compared to say Chopes or Fiji?
there was that one year where it was absolutely bombing. the one where they were getting hell tubing 6-8 foot right handers and filly was dominating. not sure if it was the same year but up the other end of the beach but there was another session where it was pumping lefts and i think filly might've done some insane air that covered so much ground. yes, brazil can be as bad as watching the qs event in manly, but it can also be epic
Yes that was a great year, what happened with every other one though ?
I remember tuning into to watch Freddy "meat and potatoes "Morais....
Fight tooth and nail with Onshore 3 foot closeouts bahhhh.
i take your point, but freddy (although i understand him to be a lovely fella irl) might be the least-watchable surfer on tour from my perspective lol
And who can forget 'Floater Gate'.
I can't remember, remind me ?
https://www.surfer.com/features/asp-judges-defend-their-controversial-call
I remember now....
Yep, I can remember 3 or 4 years that absolutely FIRED! Unfortunately, when it's not firing, it's "meh" at best. Skunks happen everywhere though.
Nighmares. see you in Fiji
LOL.....
haha, sums it up.
"Still on the men’s side, the first three places outside the five are Brazilians and considering the form Gabriel, Italo, and (especially) Yago are carrying it would be a surprise not to see at least two of them jump into the five"
With 3 Brazos just outside the five what are the chances the 3 contestants and crowd get a little rowdy should they not get the scores they 'deserve'?
The brazilians always get overscored in Brazil, although to be fair the aussies used to get overscored at snapper
Historically Brazil has never lived up to its reputation of wild-west in surf competitions (despite being a country having some regions with almost as much urban violence as, say, South Africa). There have been the bad events, but nothing compared to Hawaii, for example. The one episode that went down in history was with Todd Holland in the early nineties!
Apart from that, all that weird talk about "death threats" just made me chuckle. How a couple of keyboard-warrior punks got so much credit still blows my mind. Not that one shouldn't exercise caution in Brazil, but those social media posts would be at the bottom of my worry list! Eric Logan tried to capitalize on it in his "open letter", but it doesn't seem to have worked in the end...
"Brazil has the seventh-highest crime rate in the world with exceptionally high rates of violent crimes. Brazil's homicide rate was 23.6 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2020—and it has been as high as 30.8 in previous years."
Precisely. That's why IMHO social network posts are almost a joke in the grand (sad) picture. Not that the author shouldn't be chased by police and accountable for his threatening posts, but the "hype" around such posts in the surf world was disproportional - again, IMHO. Griffin might disagree.
Yeah I think if your looking for dangerous places the USA might be a good place to start. There are hairy spots in a lot of countries eg. Mexico NW and around Acapulco however elsewhere along the coast it is fine.
How risky are airs really?
It's a question title and medal contenders will be carefully weighing up
So essentially JJ is looking on in envy as Nate books a ticket to Namibia?
there's a namibia swell inbound?
Yes of course Brazil rightly needs to host an event on the the world tour. But with all that coastline available, surely Brazil must have some better wave locations than just endless beach breaks? Are there any reefs or points anywhere? Maybe even a long peeling sandbar river mouth set-up somewhere? I understand too that a well-structured world tour needs to provide a good variety of venues, including one or two beach breaks. But for goodness sake WSL, please get the French leg back on the schedule for the beach breaks. France has proven many times that its beach breaks have far more quality, and tubes. Plus France has good mobility with nearby venues on different tides etc. European leg needs strengthening for the fan base too.
Yeah, there are better waves in Brazil for sure. The problem is consistency. Think Kirra, for example. One of the best waves in the world but the WSL can't choose as a main/only venue because it might go for a month or more without breaking properly, even in prime season. So given pros and cons, Saquarema is a decent choice for Brazil standards. As for your comment regarding a river mouth sandbar, Guarda, for example, is amazing, but breaks only a few times a month. See a video from earlier this month:
I remember Stu once asked about Campeche Rights. Great "city" wave, but even less consistent than Kirra.
Thanks. That wave looks proper championship tour worthy.
That is a gem ripa not crowded either and must be south as they are in wetties. Gets cold water down there apparently.
Seriously, except for the buzzing swarming crowd on the beach, What does Brazil have to offer the WSL?
Bring back Mexico Gringo's.
Bazzilion Brazilian's with enthusiasm, parties & dancing would be nice...
a different culture....?
Thanks Stu, can't wait to miss it.
This is essentially a public relations event.
A must-have for the WSL, one of the few that makes some money.
Meetings, happy hours, V.I.P. wristband parties and a truckload of lobbying.
They could call it The Rio V.I.P. wristbands Pro.
Anything on a surfboard with a surname reminiscent of Brazil is enough to satisfy the public.
It's a collective discomfort for judges, competitors and journalists - except those who are there just for the rendez-vous.
Like Huntington, minus the peroxide and fake tan.
hahahahah- "a collective discomfort for judges, competitors and journalists "
Thats brilliant.
it's also a great trap to cull ceo's
Fly em out there and pull the rug !
Ha, ha the CEO graveyard.
Watch those comments
Ziffy reads this !
To quote Brian Fantana...
"As the old saying goes...nope!"
yago dora $7.75
had to look up what a peloton means. thanks for enhancing my vocab Stu!
surely theres a better wave than that in all of brazil ?
you know there is ... so take it there .
please .. spare us another yawn fest .
There's a better wave at the other end of the beach....
there are better waves in NSW than Narrabeen on a south swell
Tyler won't be there- https://www.instagram.com/tylerwright/p/C8Qn3Lyvy-8/
I’ll be watching j-bay for inspiration
?si=Xkvxj1ah3GFfvPzRSounds like an onshore air show coming up
Yes 3 Brazzo will make the 5
How will there be any Brazilian fans left to watch it "live" when they all now live on the Gold coast?
thanks for the great forecast & summary Stu,
hope the in form surfers get some good waves & goodvibes...
beware of the backwash...
Didn't know where to put it but live stream for J-Bay...
https://www.youtube.com/live/tEsgp8tL2Gg
Put it on the live feed comments in the Brazil contest page.
Thank you, Sprout!
Thanks, but I’ll just check in for shearer's wrap ups
I set up a trivia over on the live comment Brazil link. If anyone is interested?
Is there really no where else in Brasil that they can hold this event? I get that they must include Brasil due to the large market they wish to tap into to increase viewership and expand WSL followers, but it def aint a spot we are pumped to watch? A few years we ago we had some ok waves off the southern point but most other years have been sloppy pop puss mixed in with some G.Focker back wash.
‘sloppy pop puss mixed with G.Focker back wash’
Yep that tickled me haha
Forecast looks good for tonight right?