Forecast Update: Shiseido Tahiti Pro
Shiseido Tahiti Pro
May 22nd - 31st
(All dates refer to local time)
It's been a while, but finally the WSL are well-positioned to score waves.
Steve Shearer mentioned that, once the drama of the cut had passed, engagement with the following contests would be entirely dependent on swell. That being the case, let's get ready to engage.
As it gets closer, an almost perfect forecast is revealing itself for the Shiseido Tahiti Pro. As usual, it comes with a few caveats. One of which is that, unlike, say, 2014, when the waiting period was stacked from go to woah, the organisers have to wade through some early period dross, so let's make sense of that first of all.
Today and tomorrow have already been called lay days, so our attention turns to the weekend’s inconsistent groundswell energy. The source of this swell is a strong front moving along the polar shelf, south of Tasmania and New Zealand.
Owing to distance - it will have travelled approx. 7,500km to reach Tahiti - the swell will be very inconsistent - possibly just two or three real sets per heat. Nevertheless, it should arrive later Friday and peak through Saturday (Sunday Australian time) in the 6 foot range. A slow decline is then due from Sunday, back from 4-6ft on Sunday morning.
Conditions look great with moderate to fresh trades due. Whether the WSL runs during these days will depend on, firstly, if there's enough consistency to run fair heats, and secondly, how confident they are to squeeze three full days - which is what they need to run the contest - during the next swell, which is the last three days of the waiting period. No back up or safety net. If the swell pushes north of being paddleable and they have to go on hold then suddenly they're squeezed for time.
OK, as you may have guessed, the weekend swell is just the lemon against the pie, the next swell - it's even hitting on a Wednesday! - is gonna be bigger.
Currently, a healthy polar low is traversing under Tasmania, with this system alone due to generate 6 foot+ of swell for Wednesday morning next week.
However, it's the remnants of this low (with the help of a secondary polar front on its tail) that’s expected to re-intensify directly south of New Zealand on Saturday, projecting perfectly through the New Zealand corridoor and into Teahupoo’s prime southwestern swell window.
Source of oversized swell inbound for Tahiti
Breaking it down: A broad, stalling low pressure gyre is expected to develop, projecting multiple fetches of gale to severe-gale winds towards Tahiti, which will in turn generate pulsing large surf from Wednesday through Friday, even extending beyond the waiting period into the following week.
The first pulse of energy on Wednesday will have the most west in it and looks to build overnight Tuesday, peaking through the morning in the 10ft range. A further larger pulse of longer-period swell is then due through the day likely pulsing to 10-12ft.
In other words, pushing the ceiling on Teahupoo's paddle range.
With this we may see Wednesday being put on hold or discarded as an oversized lay day [Editor's Note: Hey WSL, what's the chance of keeping the webcast cameras running?] with Thursday coming in at 8-10ft as the swell tweaks a touch more south under excellent, moderate to fresh trades.
Another large, reinforcing pulse of south-southwest groundswell is likely on the final day of the waiting period, maintaining 8-10ft surf.
So all in all it’ll be up to the commissioner and competitors regarding when and what they’re willing to run in.
Comments
Wow .. interesting to see how this plays out. Exciting to say the least
Should be a great event, with male (and female) competitors throwing themselves over the ledge into big, blue barrels.
Except for Felipe Toledo, who is sitting this one out : )
The point made here was that it might be so big it is not possible to paddle in.
“Will be” not “might be”
The WSLPTSD is real,
as I’m reading only the peak of the swell will be too big
JMD "There are for sure, a day or two in there, which could be potentially to big for both of the divisions. Um which is also again something to really watch for us and could be exciting either way"
https://www.youtube.com/live/Mr4qCBqDlTM?si=98b3hOG6D7OIobM9&t=232
"Exciting either way" may mean they still broadcast if it's too big. Or JMD could just be rambling.
Either way, i hope they run it.
If it is crazy big one day I’d rather see the local chargers and top WSL tube folks make the most of it than people who don’t want to be out there. But only if WSL streams it for us!
Cloudbreak comp all over again!
OK swellnet, time to get behind our editor in chief
Ok Wozzle call it off if you must but
PLEASE leave the cameras on
you raise an excellent point with your editor's note. can the WSL capitalise on the infrastructure and equipment they've already got in place and (supposing they call it off for the day) instead of streaming a competition event they just stream the show that ends up going down? like an unofficial documentation of the insanity that will unfold? if everyone's on the clock anyway, why not have us tune in to watch via their feed and cop views that way? like a post-show but it'll be actually interesting
The problem for them is that their social media will be over-run with people screaming "whY aRen'T yoU rUNniNG tHe coMp?".
haha nice work on the forecast Bear!
WSL is soft as butter...did the call of the Billabong Pro in 1986 nah just send em out....if a competitor chooses not to surf if its one them...
none of the men currently on tour would pull back on max paddle chopes. Toledo will be shivering in his boots all the way back in Cali just thinking about it. Bet he's glad he took a year off.
if there was enough on the line i reckon he'd go. imagine if chopes was the last stop before the cut! now that'd send some fellas over the ledge
When it comes to the call: More Fred Hemmings, less Matt Wilson.
Matt Wilson got the blame but the third member of the panel that day in Fiji, the surfers representative, is still unknown.
It wasn’t Kieren Perrow, he was elsewhere. And as you know, despite being absent on one of the most important days in pro surfing history, and despite not nominating a surfers rep in his place, Kieren was promoted to tour Commissioner shortly thereafter.
Easy to throw Wilson under the bus, easily expendable
In the end though the webcast of the free surfing that went down was way better than the comp would have been. I was watching it live. The part with Kelly Slater commenting was the best live webcast I've ever witnessed.
most didnt have boards big enough anyway
Thanks for the detailed forecast.
Athletes with confidence, courage, motivation & equipment only.
Optional tow-in event... with insurance sponsored by Rebull jetskis, Gaff helmets,...?
https://www.redbull.com/au-en/films/white-rhino
" caught 5 waves, ate shit on 4..." Bruce Irons (more than lost his pants) @35min
"$200 for seat on a boat" Danny; photographer for big wave event
Smart Slater & Mick Fanning watch on from the sidelines
White rhino movie reference above
Off topic a little, but does anybody know who makes the on/off call for the Olympics surfing, or what the process is?
If it's the weekend and I'm home, might have a bourbon, big ciggie and decide that damn branch over the fence, 'gotta go'. Grab ladder, chainsaw, still wearing socks and sandals I'll climb right up and saw it down no problemo. Gotta Go
Monday to Friday .. I'm Safety Sam, no way do I go over the third rung.
See the problem for the WSL ??!
#LeaveTheCamsOn
Start the stihl up ! Go for it !
Stihl all the way mate, should be a sponsored rider
Fark. WSL got their claws in you. You’ll be on a Baileys Ladder no doubt!
Got a set of knock-offs out of a warehouse, half price safety, those Bailey's are expensive, paying Kaipo too much, dudes been on a podium before but ..
Baileys all the way !
Baileys all the way !
Why the fuck wouldn't they run it when it's maxing? You have, allegedly, the best surfers in the world. Who is better placed to surf 10-12ft chopes if not the best surfers? What a joke.
Matahi Drollet..?
But I do get your point.
And yeah...#LeaveTheCamsOn
I think to solve the problem, they could have another mini cut. Ask the surfers if they want to surf or not. If they choose not to, cut them off tour and have the spots filled by surfers willing to surf it who are waiting in the wings(channel). The show rolls on. The best surfers in the best wave mantra is maintained plus the drama of seeing surfers willfully give up their spots on tour due to not being able to perform in all conditions is good for the audience. Way more exciting than watching journeymen getting cut at Margs. Plus gives an opportunity for a new face to get put in the spotlight on the world stage.
after watching the latest How Surfers Get Paid, if the forecast is this promising could the tour benefit from the first decent forecast day being a lay-day rebadged as the Womens Expression Session. given how much the bar has been raised this year with a few of the girls could be a great opportunity for the rest to get out there and get their bearings when it's a decent size but potentially a bit too slow for heats.
Is it still JMD (*spits on ground*) who makes the call to run or not?
wish they'd get rid of her and her shitty calls
Going to be interesting what they throw the women in then if they've already called today and tomorrow lay days.
This year the women have been pushed in waves that were previously seen as being above their pay grade and have forever raised the ceiling on women's surfing, surely the men should now do the same? Or is the WSL saying that we've hit the max size of heavy contest waves already?
Good point, mate.
Would be a real shame if they chose not to run on a big day. It's just what the WSL needs right now to capitalise on the slight amount of goodwill they may have won back recently (have they? i'm not sure). Give people something truly epic to watch and the negatives tend to be forgotten pretty quickly.
Didn’t they say after the code red day in future the surfers have to bring big boards and be ready for anything?
Chopes becomes unpaddleable whereas Fiji generally does not.
A 9 foot gun won’t help you at maxing chopes.
I remember in the lead up to the 2014 event the ASP put out a press release saying that all competitors had been told that impact vests and helmets would be made available to anyone who wanted one. In other words, we’re running boys, get ready.
I went and rewatched JMD’s interview about the forecast and the call and it really is frustrating that on day one, a week before the swell hits, we’re already being told it’s too big.
Just run one day of the women’s on this first swell, then leave the rest for the big days. With Toledo off tour, all of the men’s division will have a big crack and been keen to strut their stuff in maxing chopes, as I’m sure will a few of the girls.
Gotcha comp was the benchmark for chopes. Set the level high.
Just finished reading Owen Wright’s book. A bloody good read and refreshing honest take on the danger of surfing and head injuries. Recommended. One thing he touches on is the liability of sporting bodies to athletes. Apparently there are lots of huge court cases coming up in field sports in the US. WSL only a few years ago made helmets available to all athletes but will 100% be concerned about liability. You can’t wave it away. They sure as hell want and need the excitement and drama but its a balancing act for a busimess particularly a US based one.
x2 on the recommendation on reading Owen's book. I found it really interesting and honest. Big O went through some dark and incredibly challenging periods.
Highly doubt WSL could ever be liable for head injuries in the same way contact sports are.
There's just no way you could ever establish a risk profile which could be used to establish some sort of breach of duty of care.
As many guys have been concussed/head injured at 6ft Pipe as they have at 10ft Pipe- so how could you possibly ever establish what sort of risk parameters would be entailed on any given day?
It would be a nightmare court case and I'd be gobsmacked if it ever got to court, let alone some sort of liability was established. Liability would have to be established in a court of law that had jurisdiction over the global locations WSL uses. Then some sort of breach would have to be proven.
I think hell will freeze over before that happens.
The talk from Steve Robertson post 2011 code red was that surfers could be expected to have competition called on on big days.
It's incredibly disappointing and deflating to have JMD adopting a risk averse, defensive posture at the get go, before we've even started.
That's really deflating for me, really disappointed with JMD's comments. Surely it's up to the competitors?
So disappointing, but JMD has a solid track record of dodging the serious stuff, the big day at pipe this year and refusing to run heats at pumping box this year and last.
I can understand the hesitation to run the women’s in the big stuff, but all the alpha males in the men’s draw would be rubbing their hands together at big chopes. Griff, Robbo, Medina, Kelly, Italo etc, and there’s no Felipe to worry about, he’d be back surfing Trestles by now.
I think they’re so hung up on running men’s and women’s finals on the same day, and finishing the women’s in the smaller stuff would be a blow to their gender equality aspirations.
Thing is though, now there are enough of the girls who are willing to have a crack at the big stuff, that it’s the woz holding them back.
"I think they’re so hung up on running men’s and women’s finals on the same day, and finishing the women’s in the smaller stuff would be a blow to their gender equality aspirations."
yep this is exactly the reason.. the day they combined the tours was when everything started going downhill... reluctancy to capitalise on waves of consequence and double the amount of heats to squeeze into the waiting period
I was Sure The Outsider was going to be at Chopes for this Comp . . .
Hear hear. C’mon Steve bring back The Outsider. My favourite Kelly commentator, skirting the line between fact and fiction ;-)
If JMD is already cautious about the size then looks like it will kick off this weekend?
Toledo not yet off the hook. What are the chances that this tail-end swell replicates itself somewhat for the Olympics?
Looks like the incoming swells have downgraded a touch to the 8ft to occasionally 10ft range. So there shouldn't be any issues running on any of the days now.
GFS finally coming into line with EC forecast
EC yesterday was actually quite bullish as well.
8-10ft - I bet the oldest man in the fleet doesn't hesitate in paddling out...
WSL is turning into Woosa Surf League
If it gets too big to paddle, surely the WSL would not want to keep the cameras rolling. They'd be paying to have their competition upstaged by a freesurf session.
And also spotlighting the fact that many of their top athletes are not willing to surf the waves that their audience most want to watch them surf.
How is surfline calling two times overhead, yet you guys are calling too big for competition ?
Don't think they are calling too big for competition anymore....
if by "you guys" you mean the wozzle, put it to the JMD
if you mean swellnet, no one has said that
So, now that theres been a bit of a drop, do they need to run this weekend?
Three days needed to finish it off. They could just run non-stop through the last three days of the event window in excellent heavy conditions.
Here's hoping anyway.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/eight-storey-building-onto-a-four-foot-reef...
The SMH is right on the ball. I’d always heard that Teahupo’o translated as “end of the road”. Nup, it’s “place of skulls” apparently. Never knew that.
And Craig, you’ll need to update your forecasts. Apparently the swells are created in the “South Indian Ocean”. Bless me, I know so little. I’ve heard of the Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean. Didn’t know there was a South Indian Ocean, and didn’t know that somehow swells generated there get around Australia and Antarctica and land in Tahiti.
Journalists. They so clever.
Tahiti can pick up swell from the Indian Ocean/Southern Ocean. Great circle paths.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2016/11/08/secret-life-g...
Of course they can Don, although the path is narrow. It’s just a very secondary source to southern ocean and South Pacific.
So, basically he was making shit up.
The best surfers in the world should be able to surf 1ft to 15ft waves, then they will be a respected world champion without any astrex attached.
Reckon it’s worth the early wake up tomoz Craig? (ie: likely to run?)
You're a day ahead, Sat in Tahiti is Sun here
Sunday morning our time Solitude. As per above comments.
Roger. Sleep in it is
Interesting trip. The credits should’ve thanked the Aussie tax payer.
What a junket eh? All expenses paid to get uncrowded tubes like that. All surf it amazingly…….
………conspicuously, all our olympians weren’t there?
Aussie Oympic Tahiti team includes; Tyler Wright, Ethan, Jack and Molly... doing pigdog, no hog
https://www.olympics.com.au/news/four-surfers-selected-to-make-olympic-d...
" I copped the scariest wipeout of my life and I'm better for it. I jumped off a jet ski straight into the biggest barrel I'd ever had at 6am, I was still waking up and I got absolutely flogged with four or five more waves on the head." Molly P
At max paddle in size, I’d bet there’ll be a few women who won’t want to surf it (and I wouldn’t blame them!)
Regarding the liability chat.. a bit of devils advocate .. I could imagine a scenario where a certain surfer says I think it’s too dangerous, they run anyway and said surfer ends up with a serious injury from getting mowed down by a set - after semi-commiting and being out of position (ie not actually taking a wave).
Would be interesting to know if the athletes sign a waiver when they get on tour.
Despite the bullshit that will likely play out, super excited for this one!
if they don't want to surf, pull out of the comp. simple as that.
They are professional surfers.
Is it that simple when the call is subjective and the surfers with the biggest influence are the ones that are least capable?
I hope they all charge and prove to themselves they can do it, but that’s a big ask at max paddle chopes.
Anyway we’ll soon see if they even get the chance.
Do motorsports professionals sign waivers ? Everytime they go out they risk their life , only ever gets called off if track is extremely wet and torrential rain . Yes they aren’t dealing with a moving track but they can come unstuck with no fault of their own , it can be because of other drivers/riders .
I don’t know, but interested to know.
Yes it’s a good question
They do. You won't get on a track without one.
The guy who sued the WSL over the incident at Nazare signed one as well, they all had to. His claim was based on the WSL giving him false information relating to the promised water safety crew.
Just heard Carissa's been there for a month. She'll be primed for the big stuff.
She will still get smoked. She also lives on the north shore but still cant backhand tuberide.
Coming from the one who said Caity Simmers can't surf Pipe. yawn.
Going for it but no chance it was made or she would have posted it.
Way more impressive wave than Philipes chopes instagram post from the other day which was less than half the size (and as he posted it on insta must best wave he must have caught too)
Riss can get it done Burleigh.
have to completely disagree. She's grown up on the north shore and i have never seen a post worthy photo of her at pipe.
https://www.redbull.com/us-en/carissa-moore-pipe
hahaha! Doh!
Sick wave Riss!!
a still image from 7 years ago. lol
"She will still get smoked. She also lives on the north shore but still cant backhand tuberide."
Here ya go Burls
And
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10154719066012058
That's not doing her any favours for 8ft chopes. She will com last in her first round heat. Especially against Betty-Lou who can actually tube ride.
Have you ever surfed Cloudbreak Burls?
yes i have. never surfed chopes though
Likewise.
Not having a go at you, but you would understand that CB isn't as easy as it looks, not as easy as the pros make it look anyway.
I hope all the girls charge like they have been. I reckon Riss will hold her own. I just wish young Erin got a wildcard entry.
From what i understand, 4 - 6 foot cloudbreak is VERY different to 8ft Chopes.
Anyway, we will soon find out
Side note, I’m talking about the big stuff at the end of the waiting period. Not tomorrow when they will actually run.
Doing a fair bit of back pedaling Burleigh.
You wanted a photo of her at Pipe, you got one.
You said she can’t back hand tube ride, you got a video showing she can.
Might be time to just be quiet eh?
nope. i stand by everything i said.
I’ve surfed both at double overhead and found Chopes to be much easier. Just my personal experience, and it was empty compared to very busy CB
Kind of agree with you though Burls, in that Riss is behind the leader pack in heaving lefts. Sounds like she’s been putting in the time though. Frothing for this swell
Ha! Of course you do.
On another note I bet Steph is stoked she’s not there this year.
Ever heard of the term 'projection for ones own inadequacies"?
Wow
Soo much speculation from the lap dog's. You know who you are, you feeble keyboard warriors sitting behind ur alias'. Hope the spirit of Andy & Cory is honoured & the event surpasses everything that's come before it, surfing needs this right now. Make or break WSL? Up to you ... fanboys without skin always gonna posture. The ocean is the leveller of men, & women. Let's hope this is the best event EVER!. Somehow reckon another own goal is in the making.
Ouch! Might have to re think my whole existence now Mal is back.
Hahaha Feebs, ur existence is in ur own mirror. Don't mean to rattle ur cage but maybe take a walk ...?
Apologies Feebs, I'll circle back a little. Dunno you from a bar of soap, cause you elect to use a psuedonym. Calling me out on my calls is all good however in another world, I don't get to respond to ur face. Online soft cock is real. Reckon you're the employee of the month of the latter.
I reckon I pale in comparison to the other SC’s
I’m a little mouthy in real life too but mostly say little while in the company of egos like yours.
been trying to find a space to say I got a lot out of your chapter in swags' vol 2 @Mal, (squash ball eyed shark in feed mode is an image I won't forget), but you seem a little narky on here. Anyway, hope your doing ok.
I'm all good mate. For the record, beast wasn't in feed mode otherwise I'm sure I wouldn't be here today. Defining moment in my recovery tho.
You know how when the final hooter of a contest sounds and groms race to the lineup to get it uncrowded?
Well, there's no need to race when the Tahiti Pro finishes on the 31st. Chopes is gonna have at least a week of 6-10ft surf following the final hooter.
Wow , that's a great looking forecast!!!!@@
wow thats insane! running that first day has proven to be a terrible call, they could have had one of the great contests of all time, 3 full days of big perfect waves from go to whoa.. they kooked it
Running the women’s elimination was the worst call.
I can understand them running the first rounds to make sure if the forecast went to shit they’d still have enough time to complete the comp, but putting eliminations on in really inconsistent surf was a bad move.
Yeah wow. I saw the charts last night for that follow up storm and it looks beastly. Proper biiiiig tow swell.
So...will they run tomorrow or chicken out?
https://www.swellnet.com/news/form-guide/2024/06/06/forecast-surf-city-e...