Teahupoo Inbound
It feels like an age since we've had a stacked forecast to froth over, but it was only 2022 when we last had full-throated Teahupoo to look forwards to.
Hang on, that is an age, especially for the women's side of the draw where none of the current chargers took part. Yep, no Pickles, no Simmers, no Bettylou, and no offence meant but there was a helluva lot of barrel dodging going down. Not to single her out - although the Quarter-Final finish was crucial in making it to Trestles - but Steph Gilmore won her Opening Round heat with a pair of 3's. She was bundled out in the Quarters in perfect glassy 6 foot tubes with her two showings netting a combined heat score of 11.66. No made barrels.
That showing seen through the lens of this year's women's Pipe performances looks archaic. Belonging to a wholly different era of women's surfing.
We are more likely to see Pickles or Bettylou being spat out of outrageous blue caves getting 8's, 9's, or even 10's.
Steph won't be there to redeem that poor showing. Carissa Moore will. Riss, likewise, was unable to navigate her way through a tube at 6 foot Chopes for a 3.26 heat total in her Quarter-Final against Vahine Fierro. That will not happen again. Purely for the sake of defending her Olympic gold medal, Moore will be determined to show she is competitive in heaving reef pass tubes.
Carissa during her Quarter-Final loss to Vahine last year (WSL/Sloane)
The success of sporting events is built upon one critical factor: anticipation. The contrast between tuning into 6 foot Teahupoo to see where the women have now raised the level to and a post-cut contest in the Slater Tub could not be more stark. That burning sense of anticipation of seeing who will spin and pack it when the lagoon drains, then the lines rear up on the reef, is now equally divided between men and women - maybe even more tilted towards the women. That's an astounding situation considering just two years ago it was considered non-newsworthy for women world champs to not get barrelled out there.
Tuberiding chops and the courage to send it will not be distributed equally, even amongst a comically tiny ten-women field, which is another great question we will like to see answered live.
Last year, during her first Teahupoo event, Caity Simmers made the Final, losing to Caroline Marks. With much more swell inbound, she'll go into this year's event as a favourite (WSL/Dunbar)
On the men's side of the draw it's a much more even proposition, especially (and it's dreadful to say it) with the current men's world champ on the bench. Toledo can go, sometimes, and sometimes he has heats where he chooses not to go. No-one can argue with that simple proposition. Surfing Teahupoo is frightening and that fear is entirely rational.
The modern therapy-speak around fear is that we see through it to the other side and there is nothing there. When it comes to Teahupoo, that's bollocks. You can get driven into the shallow reef, break your neck, rip your flesh apart, get knocked unconscious etc etc.
The fact is, on the other side of a gung ho attitude and sending it on the wave of a lifetime, or even just a heat-winner, could be a career-ending injury.
Every single competitor will be feeling that. It will be a constant thread of tension running through idyllic Tahitian days where the mind will be lulled by the shocking beauty of the mountains and the many hues of blue which envelop the island.
Local wildcard Vahine Fierro warms up pre-event (WSL/Sloane)
Not all will feel the fear in equal measure. Some will be distracted by young kids like Jack Robbo, or newborns, like John Florence, or even the not-yet-born like Robert Kelly Slater.
Slight digression: Dads are as common as muck on the men's side of the draw but motherhood seems a concept not yet explored by women tour surfers. Beth Hamilton has packed 'em at Pipe as a Mum, as has Californian Frankie Harrer, so we know Lioness Energy is at least as valid as Dad Strength when it comes to the steep and deep. Tennis has no shortage of mother competitors so pro surfing has to follow.
New dad Jack Robinson drags the anchors at last year's event (WSL/Ryder)
In boxing, they say the last thing to go is your power. We are still figuring out what the last thing to go is in surfing, thanks to Kelly Slater and it may well be that tuberiding is the last skillset standing - if you can still muster the courage and composure to sit tight under the ledge without flinching then take the drop. We wanted to see Kelly get wildcards for the heavy water events and we got what we asked for. Now we wait to see if he can still deliver an epic performance. I don't bet on surfing, but my gut feeling is, yes he can.
I haven't felt this frothy about a comp for a long, long time.
//STEVE SHEARER
Note: The event waiting period kicks off Wednesday 22nd (early tomorrow Australian time) yet will likely begin with a few laydays. See Craig's early forecast, which he'll be updating tomorrow.
Comments
The frothometer is redlining. Can't wait!
Totally agree btw. Never before have I found myself so interested in the women's heats as I have this year. You rightly observed in a prior piece it is one of the things WSL has got pretty right. Despite some embarrassing early foibles, particularly pipe last year, where WSL and competitors alike looked pretty silly, they ploughed on in faith and the women have stepped up. Exit embarrassment enter entertainment. The guard has changed and the product is good.
10 women field?
Arghh, sorry. 12.
But 10 Tour surfers.
Ok, gotcha
10 woman field, seriously? Time to equalise the playing field and give women the same conditions as the men. The depth of talent is definitely there, just look at the Challenger Series. They make a big show of equality but 10 woman field shows they’re just pretending.
no it's not grazza. They get paid the same as men for doing less work (less heats) already. Don't start on equality. only 3 or 4 girls will actually go in proper chopes.
Pay rate per heat? Very strange way of thinking about it. Total prize pool for women is far less than total prize pool for men. Number of career opportunities for women (i.e spots on tour and qualification spots) are far less than for men.
And really, tired preconceptions about how good women’s surfing isn’t shouldn’t play a part in this, but blind Freddie can see how fast the performance levels for women are leaping ahead. Pipe and Sunset this year blasted apart expectations for women in waves of consequence. Hell, we just a had the snapper challenger where by quite a margin the best wave of the comp was from a 16 yo girl.
Wsl is trying to pretend it’s done all it needs to do, but we’re just not there yet.
LMAO... what?
How many heats do the women need to surf to reach the Semi finals? Now how many heats do the men need to surf?
Women get paid more for less surfing, it's pretty simple. Men need to progress further in heats to get paid the same amount of money.
If it was reversed there would be outrage.
It essentially was reversed...for decades.
so that makes it ok?
They don't get paid. They win prize money.
Let’s unpack that.
1. Less heats? You think professional athletes want to surf less heats?
2. Fewer women get paid for less surfing. For this small group it is easier to progress to higher prize money. For women surfers as a whole it is a much harder slog for less total prize money. Less opportunity. Much harder to survive at the top level.
3. “ If it was reversed there would be outrage”. So if the men were treated to the conditions that women experience it would an outrage? But it’s not an outrage that women have fewer opportunities than men? Just make them the same, no outrage then. Simple.
4. They’re charging. Every year, every comp in fact, the standard jumps.
Equality. Easy.
So excited for this comp and what the ocean will throw at them. Let's hope the WSL holds its nerve and waits for the bigger days to run, especially with the short fields now. My Aussie pride says Jack and Pickles, but JJF and Caity will be hard to get past
Cue, "Event On Hold". Wait, JMD (*spits on ground*) is something else now isn't she? Who calls on/off now? Anyway, bring the slabs!
sick write-up. absolutely frothing as well. frothing to see how kelly goes, more frothing to see a bunch of hell women pack cones and take this event up 10 levels. FROTHING.
The betting agencies aren't listing Vahine as an outright winner.
The pricks did the same with Moana the year she won Pipe. I was ready to put a healthy amount on her to win.
That aside, looking forward to a sick comp, and of course Slats will go. The guys a wizard in big heavy tubes.
@sothernraw Vahine equal favorite @$5 with C.Marks , Caitlin $5.4 (Sportsbet)
Ahh ok cool. Copy that @amb.
Just wasn't listed on the site i looked at.
$5?
I'll save my money then! haha.
yeah i agree a bit skiiny odds considering 1st heat is against CAity.
Also surprised Medina is favourite $3.40 , Ethan a roughy at $34
I wish Erin Brooks could get a wildcard for this event.
On the fear, I also remember an article on Andy Irons being absolutley petrified at Chopes. Once he overcame his fear, he became an animal out there.
sheeeesh! that mf wasn't scared of much either
Few nose beers and away you go.
Ha I’ve learnt something yesterday and today.
Bloviate and now, nose beers. Hahaha it’s a good day when you learn something new.
I've learnt Rat Coffins!! Sure is a good day to be alive! haha
;);)
Aussie slang is awesome.
I've never heard that and I grew up in WA but on 96FM they just referred to "rusty fish hook"
Haha that cracked me up because it's true...
Not just referring to AI...
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xt45ni
That's pretty damn cool!
What a competitive bastard!
Also how insane is Healey.
So good. What a relationship - good and bad.
I only grew up with an older sister, probably the reason I'm a softie.
And yes, Healey is a beast.
I think we share a Healey man-crush
Geez he is missed.
What a surfer.
what a write up! defintely got my balls tingling
The Woz is kinda on a roll!
Is it 3 full days to complete an event post cut?
Will be interesting too see if this smaller swell is fully utilised before the 3 big days at the end of the waiting period, especially after not running at big pipeline earlier this year.
Here’s hoping maybe they get the opening and elimination rounds for the women out of the way on the smaller days, and run the whole men’s comp and the business end of the women’s in 8-10ft conditions.
Saying that cause I can’t wait to see Molly and Caity in the big stuff, but I think there’s still a lot of questions about the older generation of the women, except for Carissa.
I hope JMD holds her nerve, and I’m sure slater will be in her ear about waiting for the juice.
"Is it 3 full days to complete an event post cut?"
Pretty much. 31 heats for the men, 15 for the women, so 46 in total. Call 'em 30 mins each and that's 23 hours, which with a bit of leeway for stoppages is three x eight hour days.
nah don't want the event favourites to go out in smaller stuff when there's currently 3 days of maxing chopes on the cards!
Yeah, the calls to run or not, will say a lot about how much faith they have in womens surfing.
It’s the first event at Teahupo’o, where the men and women have shared a waiting period and had a forecast like this. They’ve had years with 1-2 big days where they’ve only run the men and finished both events in easing swell, but agreed FR, the calls will be crucial.
I would love to see the women sent out in maxing out verging on tow in conditions. Equal pay for equal risk. About time they stopped wrapping them in cotton wool and let the cream rise to the top. It would never happen though, too risky, someone could die.
they actually get paid more as they surf half the amount of heats as the men.
Pro surfers aren't paid an hourly rate for time spent in heats.
The hours of work and expenses involved to get to the top on either side of the draw are the same.
Equal pay for equal placing seems the easiest way to cut it.
Will there be a legends heat? Would love to see CJ, Damien, Nathan Hedge, Jeremy Flores etc. out there.
Could even do a legends tow-in heat: Raimana vs Laird vs Longbottom vs Walsh. Throw Keala Kennelly in as well.
I'm concerned that swell toward the end of the waiting period will be too big. I'm calling it now, the women will definitely not be out on those three days. I'd be happy to test them if it was approaching double overhead but anything beyond that is simply too dangerous. No disrespect to them, I admire what they do and how far they've come, but they just aren't ready. I don't want to see them get hurt and I feel those last 3 days would be pushing all of those girls beyond their limits. It's just not safe or smart.
I also have my doubts about the men running on those days as well. Forecast graph says 8-10 feet. That's 16-20 foot faces...........do we understand how big that actually is? It's 5-6 metres. Can anyone show me footage of chopes being paddled at that size? As much as I want to see some juice, I just don't know whether you can run a comp there when it starts getting beyond the double overhead range out there. If I've misinterpreted the forecast graph let me know, but if it's as big as it looks my money's on men's and women's champs being crowned within the next 6-7 days.
yep I agree, if we're all being honest there's really only a handful of the girls that will actually handle that size.. on the plus side if they do hold the womens in that size then Molly will win for sure yeww!!
and nah the forecast is faces, so not 20ft at this stage
Oh, my apologies. 10ft faces are very manageable then.
Nah, the forecast graphs are in surfers feet. So yes it will be massive.
Dear Wozzle,
If you do call it off on one of the big days can you please keep the webby cameras running for our viewing pleasure?
Cheers,
Like they did with Cloudbreak all those years ago. Would be good.
Maybe a new CEO for the Wozzle has turned their tide of shitiness. For sure Slats will go and I'm thinking Medina will harness his old self for a win. Frothing.
Super pumped for this comp but I really wish gambling wasn't a part of surfing. I've lost mates to gambling addiction through suicide and have seen how it wrecks lives and families. And then you paddle out and groms are discussing the odds in the lineup, like its a totally cool and normal part of sport. It isn't.
Totally agree, Beagle, this has to stop and the normalising of it for younger people is brutal. I wish Nathan Florence would kick the gambling sponsorship on his YT channel too... there must be more ethical sponsors for him, but maybe not with the same deep pockets.
I've been watching the NHL playoffs (lived in Canada for a while) and disappointed to see the odds and betting etc., is just as bad there as any sports here...
+2. This is not a part of surfing, it's just bogan culture creeping in and can fuck right off in my opinion.
Definitely agree. and even though i have the odd punt on a roughie in surfing, agree, it would be better off without it. Not to mention the potential for rigged results that can arise out of any sort of gambling. The amount of gambling adds out there are a sad reflection of how much its a normalised part of society. Sorry bout your mates too. I'll try to curb my references to having a punt in future posts out of respect.
It's huge in the gaming world too, some of the biggest streamers gamble often. Twitch, Kick, eSports, Skins, Slots, gamba gamba gamba, it's scary how much young kids are into it. It's so gamified and glorified without any of the traditional stereotypes attached, become almost cool to brag about losses ala wallstreetbets lossporn. All before you even get to the old school horses, sport etc., scary. If your kids are right into gaming, have a chat with them, it's everywhere.
Yep it's insidious...
Spot on Beagle.
100% Beagle. No winners with gambling. Be nice to see people like Nate Florence put ethics above money but not likely to happen.
anyone see that recent surf film with caity, timo, and soli "pick me" bailey? they surfed a heaving right hand point. what impressed me so much was how quickly caity got it wired. looking forward to seeing her at chopes.
Yep that was great watch. My thighs were burning just watching Caity pump through some of those
Mate, that was the best thing I’ve seen online for yonks and Caitys surfing was incredible, the one she had to keep pumping and backdooring sections all the way was so good and that square thing that Sol got I’ve no words for. I don’t think many waves of that caliber would be getting surfed so well if not for this whole free surfer thing, it makes wsl look boring and slow. the bar has been raised.
Wish Erin Brooks had a wild card she’s a phenom - after that barrel at snapper combined with her front side airs I’m
A a fan! In the surfvival league I’ve got Medina surfing for me! Safe odds!
amped!
Hopefully they time so finals are in the best conditions and not after
Totally agree times a gazillion re gambling in surfing. I mean, really???
At the risk of sounding like a jaded washed up do-gooder sadsack, SURFING is a way of life, an artform, an escape, a connection, a spirit, a rush, a joy, an epic, a sharing, a soloist, and one of (if not).the best goddamn things on this earth. Period.
Not a friggen horse-race or a footy match.
Like Surfalot67 stated, gambling is just bogan culture creeping in. Fucken ay.
And yeah, it can fuck right off times forever..
BTW Condolences to you Beagle for your fallen comrades, and good on you for speaking out on it, much respect.
I hope all those affected have found some peace in their lives brother.
I hope gambling advertising goes the way of ciggie ads (The Winfield Cup).
I’m still surprised booze companies can still freely advertise / sponsor prime time footy.
Interesting to note ....on dawn patrol this morning JMD said "the next swell will be too big for chopes".
Passively writing it off in advance...
Not sure...........why
I'm not here for fun size chopes
Feel like ziffys making medium wave calls .....to run on those days.
Rather than maxing paddle days.
Oh god here we go again
Oh FFS.....
FFS... she's single handedly robbed the tour of some great moments over the years
Chose Margs over this just this year, fucken wanker.
JMD needs to fuck off if she doesn't use this big swell.
actually fuck her off anyway. bring back KP
I don't think it's her call.
K P spent far too much time out there 'checking ' to see if conditions were suitable to run .
They'd spend 5 hours on hold waiting for him to come in.
I wonder how much of the "say" is attributable to WSL's insurers
Think after what happened in Nazare
Alot of push back from the legal team .
They were sued by a competitor .
Gosh yes...
I've been calling her "Smiley-Denier" for a while now.
Sometimes I wonder how she holds a straight face as she talks to the camera.
fizzing...I am more excited about watching the girls...who will go, who will hesitate, who will pull back....it could be good.
great write up, FR.
Psyched for this as no doubt everyone is.
+1 on the gambling, it's a fucking scourge and depressing to see it all over Oz tv.
I don't know about power being the last thing to go in surfing but if I was surfing Chopes I could tell you what the first thing to go would be- my bowels.
Ewwww...
Metaphorically.
Well old Leroy going have something to say here.
Likey you will not
Bring it Leroy.
was john john robbed ?
if kellys first wave was a 10 johns johns was arguably better should have also been a 10.
8 years ago but abit of fun to discuss
When Pritamo introduced his new judging criteria that heat must've been on his mind.
Shows how a low ceiling can unwittingly stuff a heat.
I note this year under Luli the tendency to go high is creeping in again. Perhaps the judges need to watch this again?
Both were incredible, but for me Slater’s high line was insane, I don’t know whether it was intentional or a fluke, but that was the heat winner for me.
I forgot how good the whole event was
Do yourself a favour and go back and watch some of the full heat replays from this event on YouTube. Hands down the best comp of all time
I think john john makes it look to easy so they shave a bit of his score. needs to flail his arms abit maybe bog a rail to get those extra points
Lisa Anderson had epic Mum power.
Absolutely frothing to see real waves for the event.
Alright Zenny. Bringas going to bring. First up though Leroy better does the cautionary tale regarding gambling. Some cursory research looks like it might actually be linked to suicide. Plus the comments, the haters you know. Haters going to hate. Ssssake. The youth are copping the full brunt of money printing global government inflation and resultant mass fuckery of their hopes and dreams right now. Hope being the weird drug that it is...... well Leroy better do the responsible thing.
So kiddo, if your way down here in the bowels of the echo chamber and the incessant gambling chatter makes you want to throw down every last penny maybe consider how it can all go wrong.
Leroy has become inspired to come up with the following aimed at the justifiably disgruntled youth of the day. A sort of physiological puff peace
12 Rules for gambling - By Leroy the Masochist.
1. Gambling is one of if the most important things you'll do in your life. Unless you are one of life's 'balanced surfers' (an oxymoron by the way), then its critical as part of your life experience. Don't get me wrong, I love life's good people. Lets face it, they aren't you Mr and Mrs surf a lot. You're a bit of selfish prick like ol Leroy, but you're alright kiddo, you're alright.
2. Sportbetting isn't about making money, Sportsbetting is about chasing the winning feeling. That and keeping you hyper interested. If money is what you are chasing, you go to the stock market. It's that simple. On the stock market you essentially never lose your coin. Even if you purchase a stock at 10 cents and goes to 0 you eventually get the money back as a tax offset and that lasts forever.
3. The upside on a speculative stock can be higher and the outcome much more likely than say a nag at the races. Combine that with point 2 and you can see where this is going.
4. On the stock market always consider doubling down if something becomes cheaper. In sport betting except that you're a fucken degenerate loser and get the fuck out. Generally.
4. Unless it's a hobby don't get sucked into the ponies or the pooches. Talk to your maths teacher about this. It comes down to multiplying probabilities. As you multiply a decimal your chance of success becomes smaller and smaller. When you have 8 bitches in a race and none of them are motivated by your need to succeed well it's just fucked really, however you want to dissect the metaphor. You may as well tear up your money and throw it over the other patrons at the bar like so much confetti.
5. Now that we've ascertained the correct Lense to look at this thing, i,e - you are here at the sportbetting market for fun and not to make money per say, don't let anyone ever tell you can't win at this thing. Course you can win, and look at this way what is winning? Is winning being all consumed for the entire event and walking away even, analytical skills enhanced?? Thats a win. Barest of margins, but it's a win.
5. Keep to binary events where possible to maximize your success. This gets back to multiplying probabilities. Some three-man heats don't bet on. Watch for form instead.
6. vary the size of your bets according to your certainty. Obviously. Don't feel the need to bet on every heat, but do size up when the heat you feel comes along though.
7. watch form knowing that the algorithm probably doesn't count this as well as it should. Any discrepancies in the dollar price vs form are to be pounced on.
8. Never bet emotionally. If you want a surfer to win or lose to any great extent don't bet.
9. If the surf is pumping competitive athletes' odds are reduced so understand who can surf a heat competitively and which surfers are more talent based.
10. Try not to bet at work, at school or when busy. I know it's hard, but you need to be watching the conditions. Consider do you need to be at work or school at this time? How much do you really want the winning feeling and resulting $32.60 that goes with it? Finals day is just a synonym for sick day.
11. Give older guys waves in the surf wherever possible.
12. Know that gambling is slightly dangerous. Like right now Leroy is slipping a bit. For example, he knows that horses and dogs are just a waste of money, but hes bored so bored Leroy. Basically, the money that comes out of surfing goes into ponies and bitches. The Margies event was a real weird one gambling wise. walked away with about $75. Took about 17 minutes to waste that on the dogs.
You can't say I'm not honest.
Not bad Leroy. Got it pretty right.
Though betting on ponies and doggies is no better, or worse.
Bet for fun, but don’t bet to win. Don’t bet by compulsion.
I have numerous friends who are deep in hock from their gambling. I’ve been around it all my life and I was right in the middle of it from age 16. But in the end it’s a little bit boring. If you really get a thrill out of gambling you probably shouldn’t be doing it.
I retired/semi-retired a few years ago. One mate will work till he’s pension age, that’s 10 years more work than me. I’ve felt like slapping him a thousand times, but it would make no difference. They’re smart guys in all the standard ways, but dumb as fuck as far as gambling goes.
I still have an occasional bet, still get good tips on the nags and have the odd flutter on the nrl, but the balance in the betting accounts is Monopoly money. It isn’t real, just a number.
I'm drawing out my Super right now Leroy. I'm going all in.
I really think it's Tylers year to finally go left.
I agree with Leroy - tag Federal funding for first-nation Aussie culture to keep at parity with net Aus gambling expenditure.. job done.
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