CT Qualifiers And Hopefuls
Starting in three days, the Saquarema Pro is the final event of the 2023 Challenger Series. This means, of course, that it’s the last chance to qualify for next year’s Championship Tour.
Two men and one woman have already qualified for their respective tours, with the men’s tour in particular wide open for last ditch qualifiers.
The two men who’ve got over the line are Cole Houshmand and Jacob Willcox, both big goofyfooters with big turns in their arsenal. Heat strategy aside, both fit the CT mold of expansive, full-face surfing. Swapping J-Bay for Cloudbreak is a minor advantage to both, though a repeat of 2023’s dire swell delivery will hinder them, as it does any rookie when faultless man-on-man strategy is required to grind out heats.
There were some big movers during the last contest at Portugal, namely winner Deivid Silva (20 places), runner up Jake Marshall (12 places), and third placed Mateus Herdy (9 places). All three are now within the first ten cut off, and this is at the expense of Jackson Baker, Sammy Pupo, and Morgan Cibilic.
In just its third year, the Challenger Series has never had six contests before so picking the points for cut-off is a lottery. 2021 had five contests and the cut-off was 10,650 points, while 2022 had seven contests and the cut-off was 15,770.
Currently, Mateus Herdy is in 10th and sitting on 14,630. Based on points spread and gut instinct, I’m expecting the cut-off to be around 17,000 points. This puts anyone down to 30th placed Joel Vaughan in mathematical contention, though outside of the odd big mover the realistic hopes only extend to 15th place Jett Schilling in 12,005 points. After that, the surfer needs to place in the top four and, out of all the contests so far this year, only three surfers below Jett have done that.
Over on the women’s side, Sally Fitzgibbon showed she’s still capable of qualifying without need of a wildcard, having already locked up her spot on next year’s CT. This will be her 14th year on the CT. Like Jacob Willcox, this has happened without a contest win which speaks to their consistency.
Currently, Isabella Nichols is in 5th place and sitting on 22,725, almost 2,000 points clear of Luana Silva in 6th. The real story, however, is in the points Luana has to drop. Taking away her 1,900, Luana has to get at least 4,015 points to catch Isabella’s current score - that means 5th place or higher. Though for every heat Isabella (and Alyssa Spencer for that matter) make above the Round of 32, Luana’s job gets harder.
Under this scenario, a cut-off around 24,000 points seems reasonable.
As for swell, we're expecting standard Saqua fare. Craig Brokensha's back of the napkin forecast reads:
"A weak trough will bring onshore winds though building surf through the opening day of the period to the 4ft range. Better conditions are due in the following days with varying pulses of mid-period S'ly swell to 3-4ft and morning offshore winds ahead of sea breezes."
Comments
Great to see Jacob Wilcox qualify
He'll be right at home in the hollow lefts and big rights
Deivid Silva tore the last event apart. I don't know what his consistency is like but there's a good chance his fellow countrymen would be pooping themselves.
He always looks good in fat rights.
Has some glaring weaknesses in his skill set though.
Yeah, remember Margaret River... He did a Toledo and never caught a wave...
Don't forget ol deivid holds a 1 to 0 start against Kelly.
He skewered him a d bar.
Slater made up every excuse in the book.
............
repeats the same off the top on every wave and a shocking leading front arm
Agreed.
I've got a feeling 2024 will be Sally's year.
Cole H is going to scare a lot of competitors.His backhand will make others look weak imo....
Ramzi Boukhiam deserves his shot as much as anyone.
Yeh I thought he was right up there, vaguely remember him getting injured though, is he a chance to quali ?
Will be good to have Wilcox on, can surf solid waves, get tubes both ways, he's been knocking on the door a few years now
Has Ramzi got a wildcard or something?
Not yet.
Not even sure whether he could be awarded one now.
I think sadly he’s missed the boat.
He didn’t do the challenger this year I don’t think?
Ah, don't know if I can take Freddy again ... Or deivid ...
Just saying ......
Why do we have Saquarema on the CT and the CS? Does the Wozzle enjoy making its audience suffer?
Ratings, sponsorship dollars and viewer's numbers........
Go India Robinson!! She's had a gnarly journey to fall off the CT through head injury in Hawaii and then not be able to surf to her potential in the following events, missing the cut. She trained the house down to get back to Number 2 spot on CS. India had to miss one of the CS events due to another injury and is still right at the top, champion effort. She'll dominate on CT in the right waves.
Don't know how Morais is doing so well, I find his surfing totally underwhelming and ponderous.
Journeyman warrior who can get the job done in QS style waves.
Agreed, was in the water earlier this year (at a well known North African point break), with Morais, Kanoa and Ramzi all in the water.
Ramzi the stand out, Kanoa also ripping, Frederico hmmmm...
Was my Rambo out all year with an injury?
I think he got injured mid January, but was at home around new year
Fredrico " journeyman" morias ........
When do the venues for the 2024 Challenger Series get decided - I'm wondering if JBay might have its most uncrowded year for punters next year.
Frederico & Silva re-qualifying is everything that is wrong with professional surfing.
Well at least it's not fucken jaddy again, those 3 are unbearable. Insert them in the 2003 events....
True, i also just noticed Jake marshall is in there too. He's in the same category
Jake "porridge" Marshall
At least we're finally done with Jaddy
Hard crowd, I always quite liked Jadson. Bit underestimated I reckon, he used to put in some solid performances every so often. He used to pay dividends on my fantasy team. Sure he's not going to set the world on fire but in the right conditions he did pretty well usually with a smile. Would be a fairly small tour if we didn't have some of these cannon fodder.
I guess there's more loses than wins....
Some of these guys just don't even try and update there surfing.just filling in the blanks . fall off tour 3 times your done
Should be in the rule book. You can still compete in the as series.locked em out of the challenger and ct
If Jaddy wins or places well (which isn't out of the question in shifty shitty beachbreaks) then he can still squeeze in.
So only 4 of 6 events are counting this year? At the start of August rule 2.11 stated the best 5 scores would be counted if over 5 CS events are completed. WSL changing the rules yet again to suit some sort of agenda.
Could you imagine if any other professional sports league did the same two-thirds of the way through the season?
It's still five events of six being counted, isn't it?
I can barely keep up with changes to the CS qualifying.
Rule 2.11 was changed following the 4th event. Best 4 results from 6 events.
2.11 If there are seven (7) Challenger Series Events then the best five (5) results will count; If there are six (6) Challenger Series Events then the best four (4) results will count; if there are five (5) Challenger Series Events then the best three (3) results will count; and if there are four (4) or less Challenger Series Events then all results will count.
They haven't thought it through very well - 3 of 5 events count, but 4 of 4 events would count? If you're going to change the rules mid-season they should at least make sense
Stu, forgive me if my numbers are wrong from a brief check...
Luana needs to replace her 3320 with a 3rd place (6085 points) to jump past Isabella's current total. Bronte is in a better position to take advantage of a lower score to be dropped.
There are only a handful below Bronte that can only qualify with a win, plus other results going their way - Ellie (8th), Vahine (9th), Baumy (10th), Bella (12th, countback) and surprisingly Nadia Erostarbe in 15th who's only had 3 results so far.
If its only one throw-away then I think its bit simpler. All girls in contention need to do better than their current throw-away, so its not going to factor in to the maths.
That was the case until WSL decided to change the rules in August. Now 4 of 6 (see above)
Ah copy.. thanks
Freddy, Kelly, Silva, Hog, Jaddy fricken time warp. Lucky I am still in possession of a purple Hypercolor t shirt, gold Oakley frog skins and a Kuta lines jumper
This whole WSL tour needs a kick . - very very boring to watch.
Points are a joke 10000 for a win and 7800 for second are way to high
One top result your in!
Of current top 10 the finalists of last 2 comps held in near flat waves for final day qualify!huntington was 10 metres of shore ,Eli and Crosby jumped huge number of places as did Silva and Marshall in near flat Portugal
Jacko baker ripped off in round 16 at Portugal
Housemand good surfer but falls on chest first wave keeps surfing to shore and gets an 8.8 ,top score of heat where few waves even broke it was so small.brother andino reckons it was a 4.5 at best in any event
Had baker got through he would now be around 8th spot.heart braking rip off
To requalfy he will need at least a quarter final in Brazil and need 3 guys to fall early
Not helped by fact 4 top Brazzaville wct surfers in the event.itallo,Medina ,m pupo and chianca
Joke WSL let’s them compete and take points from challenger guys trying to make the cut
Watch the event with interest
Possibly bias judging and likely a couple of those 4 surfers throwing heats to let a wqs countryman get through
Interesting take away.
In wondering how the "New" Brazilian head judge will fare....
Re match fixings biases
Its definitely an interesting turn of events.
They should really have made the quick comp in France a cs
Finished with a comp at the canaries? It's way closer to Portugal.
It looks like only two CT surfers entered the comp - Joao who's hometown is Saquarema and Miggy on the comeback trail after an injury in the Portugal comp back in March. Both fairly good excuses to have a crack I'd say.
Jacko is in the Heat of Death in r32 up against Willcox, Herdy and Marshall. At least it's all in his hands having the opportunity to take out two guys ahead of him. If he beats Mateus, he's recovered one of the two spots required (Sammy Pupo jumped up to 10th with a win in r64).
Incredible heat that one. One surfer riding high on a guaranteed start, three surfers desperate to advance.
The notion that Pipe was wasted cos the title wasn't always decided there tells only part of the story. The relegation/promotion drama is just as captivating.
Yet somehow "The Cut" doesn't come close to replicating the same feel and drama as a late re-qualifying push
If the waves are up and Jacko sticks to his strengths he should fair ok.
Its only one of the biggest heats of his career,
Honestly if you can't make it through heat should you really be on tour.
Its an interesting question all cs surfers face.
It was difficult to watch some loses today.
Lots of claims, lots
Should be very entertaining viewing tomorrow.
I'm actually tuned into the contest,
Waves are contestable. Herdy powered through his heat with a fine air show style of surfing.
J Marshall actually impressed me on his back hand.
He made it through also. Crosby is up
I think I've had my fill of air reverses.........
Lots of support for cibilic.
Coming down to the wire .
Cibilic out.
Crosby makes the CT, Freddie returns.
We should just have an all stars tour watching the vlogs like Mick, Mason, Clay, Dane, Kalani, Florence’s, Job half the crew from Chopes makes these CS surfers actually pretty far down the talent list to be in the CT more wildcard comps with tickets to the CT at the spot beforehand would be better
www.youtube.com
They compete for likes and subscribes
BuymyShit.com
There's potential for a head-to-head "surf-off" for the final qualifying spot between Mateus and Baker. If they and S.Pupo win their next heats, and assuming Rodrigues and Marco Mignot don't make the final, they will battle it out for a spot on the CT!
There is also a scenario where Kade, Baker and Rodrigues all end up 10th with 14,470 points and there's a three way countback - most heat wins followed by highest average heat score would take the final spot.
Deivid Silva needs results to go his way to get back on tour. Not a fun position to be in.
Nice.
Fatty Al's got nuthin' on Stinky Wes.
Great info !
I take it all back, Stu.
If Baker and Mateus win their heats, then Pupo vs Kade will be a surf-off.
(prior to Heat 8 Baker would be above Kade in a countback),
Mate, numbers are valium to me.
Keep it up.
Numbers can be fun!
I have slowly improved a spreadsheet over the years that covers the final event for the CT, CS and FantasySurfer.
I love Australian surfing, but i would much rather watch Mateus surf in 2024 than Baker.
I must say he's impressed me from the heats and highlights I've seen this year and he's shown he can mix it up on the tour with 3rd and 5th with his most recent wildcards. The more fresh faces on tour the better
Great surfer and yet another son of a professional surfer.
Guillherme Herdy - Mateus Herdy
Fabio Gouveia - Ian Gouveia
Leandro Dora - Yago Dora
Ricardo Toledo - Filipe Toledo
Wagner Pupo - Mig and Sammy Pupo
Seems pro surfing is hereditary in Brazil.
Or those guys flog their kids into being a pro from birth
Nice one Wes.
Quarters setup beautifully. Awesome combination of possibilities! Deivid Silva odds on to drop from 5th to 11th spot.. ouch.
Anyone got the intel on the conditions?.. when will they run? Last chance for offshore conditions today by the looks.
Overnight update - Luana, Fierro, Baumy and (far)Kenworthy dropped out of contention, meaning that India, Sally, Sawyer and Alyssa are confirmed starters.
Only a win from Nadia Erostarbe will be enough for her to knock out Isabella Nichols. Not a bad run from someone who was added to fill out the ranks in round of 48 at Ballito and has placed 5th, 5th and 9th from 3 events.
The men's is getting critical too.
Unbelievably, of the 16 remaining surfers 10 have either already qualified or are in the hunt for it, so pretty much every heat from here on has something at stake beyond prize money.
The job of those trying to qualify from outside the top 10 got much harder with the progress (and qualification) of Eli Hanneman, Jake Marshall, Cros Cola, and Imaikalani DV. There's now just three places left and two of the top ten are still in the draw.
I'm speaking generally here. Haven't done the calculations, because numbers.
Poor old David Silver is out and increases his standings by just 200 pts, though he should be right.
Last word goes to new qualifier Eli Hanneman about his entourage: " It’s crazy that God’s chosen me to be in this position I’m in."
The numbers are hectic.
I think DS is already in 9th as it stands and If JB & MH both go through to the quarters and grab a 5th, I think DS is gooone.
M Rod would have to be a good chance of going on a finals day run into the wind and denying someone.
DS has dropped to 9th. He will be overtaken by Sammy, Mateus and Merewether Fresh Bake if they win their next heats, MRod with two heat wins and if Marco makes the final. He will be struggling to sleep at night.
There's so much luck involved with the last event, even the seeding of other surfers can make a difference to one's qualification chances - Jake Marshall is only confirmed as Mrod and Marco are on the same side of the draw and both cannot make the finals.
Ah, "Jake Marshall is only confirmed as Mrod and Marco are on the same side of the draw and both cannot make the finals" ... Thanks. I was going over my counts and readjusted as if they were doing top 5 of 6 (the way it was at the start of the season); that way I had Jake qualifying regardless of the remaining draw positions. In that way Silva could still be knocked out.
Following Stinky Wes comment regarding silver and luck.
Silva's goose is already half baked, he needs the giant statue to send him a miracle .. albeit at the expense of his fellow statue lovers. So the big fella upstairs has some conflict to deal with.
Eli is an interesting one. The epitome of child prodigy. All the sponsorships, exposure and resources anyone could every want and it still took him a long time to make the big leagues. Shows how hard this thing is to make!
Eli hanneman should ask god for some more power in his surfing. He fucking rips but will get eaten alive on the tour.
I tend to agree Burls.
weak turns.
Incredible air game but suspect integration between torso and legs leads to a stiff style. Keeps his legs in a fixed 'air stance' - perhaps a Maui thing? Lotta wind to boost into - but the big rail game ain't there.
Will it matter? Only God knows...
How is this!? Joel Vaughan 10 - check the timing with the back wash
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/522764/joel-vaughan-throws-caution...
Of the remaining qualifiers, only Michael Rodriques is the one I wouldn’t want to see on tour, don’t really care for Eli Hanneman, but…. On women’s side, was hoping Luana Silva would qualify.
Guess wsl will announce at end of contest that Jessi Miley-Dyer will be new ceo, and Kelly Slater will receive a wildcard for his final year on tour.
Kelly already has wildcard until cut.
Things are getting heated.......
Down to the wire .......
Another layday for hopefuls to contemplate their future:
If they'd stuck to having the last event in Hawaii they'd currently be running back to back days in huge Haleiwa.
I've set up hypothetical tracking sheet for best 5 of 6 events (prior to the August rule change) to see if any non-qualifying surfers could have a legitimate protest.
There isn't too much difference at this stage, only with surfers who threw away a 600/700 result as their second worst. Eli and Marshall would not yet be guaranteed qualification, plus Kade and Sammy has slid down a couple of spots in the live rankings.
This final day meant to run tonight or tomoz?
Baker and Mateus have both shit the bed so far. Performing under pressure in these conditions would be a tough gig
So Baker gone?
No Baker next year.
S.Pupo is back on the CT and Deivid Silva is currently hanging onto 10th spot, hoping that MRod and Marco don’t make the next heat or two, respectively.
Sure? Looks like Baker has duffed it, as has Herdy. So close.
Just watched highlights and high-8s given for single turn waves? Tough surfing and tough viewing.
It really is a grind isn’t it?
You look at the likes of Morgs and Jacko. Formerly pushing hard on the CT.
Back to 3* Qies on the east coast to hopefully make it back to the CS only to battle it out with 96 other frothers in random beachies
The psychology would be difficult
If MRod makes it through the next heat, and no further, will he knock Silva out and put Kade down to 10th in a countback? Both will be on 17,470 but with different results dropped.
If that happens Kade would still have to be pretty unlucky for Mignot to come through with a win and steal that spot from him.
Challenger Series has been great viewing... cool to see some new blood coming onto the CT .. few recycled surfers making it back tho. At least we won't be seeing a year of Jadson Andre... Morias will be boring enough.
New crew 2024:
Women
India Robinson (AUS)
Sally Fitzgibbons (AUS)
Sawyer Linblad (USA)
Alyssa Spencer (USA)
Isabella Nichols (AUS)
Men
Cole Houshmand (USA)
Samuel Pupo (BRA)
Jacob Wilcox (AUS)
Crosby Colapinto (USA)
Eli Hanneman (HAW)
Emikalani deVault (HAW)
Frederico Morias (PRT)
Jake Marshall (USA)
Kade Matson (USA)
Deivid Silva (BRA)
Erin Brooks - Canada Flag, hometown Texas
Mick Fanning - Penrith anyone ?
Pretty sad for the Aussies in the men's. Only Wilcox in. Big US contingent, especially when you add in Hawaiians.
Action packed morning of heats. A few came down to the last exchange. Waves seemed very contestable. Not too sure what happened with Herdy and Baker, its interesting to note that i feel that this is a successful event and series format. Hats off to the woz for getting it right.
Great contestable waves for the event. most Brazil i've watched since the year they surfed the right and john blew his knee out
Deivid aka DVD go buy a lottery ticket, how did he surfvive.............?
Congrats to all the hopefuls on tour next year bring on the new breed !
Points system perhaps needs an overhaul if they're only going to have 6 events. Should reward consistency rather than 1-2 big finishes.
I honestly feel you have to reward winners, there is already quite enough second chance draws in competitive surfing.
Mentally winners already have the taste for success and the HUNGER to win .
I feel there are far too many surfers on tour just cruising along, filling in the blanks.
Is that what we really want ?
.
I guess if winners really have the taste and hunger to win, they shouldn't come second last in every other event!
Sometimes the stars align.
peabo,
I have no idea how the current crop pull it through, different mentalities i guess.
To reinstate the sentiment i have seen from a few folks on here. with Surfing Australia putting so much backing into the future oz surfers that's a low qualification rate.......
No one is safe on the ct cs though thats very few spots in a world of hungry surfers.
Is talent alone the biggest focus on tour nowdays?
Haha, it's all a bit of a crapshoot. There's always going to be people on tour we do want to see and others we don't. It'll never be a truly fair system. At the end of the day, i'm just trolling to an extent.
I’m not sure the system is quite right. I mean 3/5 women have already been there, such minimal opportunity for up and coming girls each year.
Out of the men, only half of the 10 are rookies, again recycling.
Fall off tour 3 times your out! Not ct, no cs,
Next.
Don't make me CEO
Head will roll
LOL !
Or of they have qualified more than once through the cs they have to wear purple jerseys ......yellow card for claims 4 minutes in the sin bin.
You claim a 3
Red card and your off tour for the rest of the season.
You're onto something, LD!