Margaret River Pro Early Forecast
How far can the Wozzle push their luck?
Hawaii turned on thanks to the perfect, peak season sand (or lack thereof) and consistent mid-period swell, and over Easter they scored the best run of waves the Surf Coast had seen in six months. Even better, as the tour leaves town the rain and onshore winds are moving back in.
However, as the caravan heads west to Margaret River, the run of great competition surf just might be coming to an end.
The Margaret River region hasn't really kicked into gear this autumn, owing to the same factors affecting South Australia and Victoria. That being the lingering La Niña signal in the Pacific Ocean and suppressed Southern Ocean frontal activity. While last week delivered quality groundswell for Victoria and South Australia, and the coming week will too, the swell-producing storms have been forming just a little too far east and late in Western Australia's swell window.
This has resulted in fun 4-6 foot days but nothing noticeably large across the region.
With the Western Australian swell window extending from south of South Africa, all the way to just south of the Australian continent, it's open to myriad swell sources, but again it looks like we'll see high pressure dominating these swell windows ahead of the first day of competition next Sunday. Western Australia, and more so Margaret River, pumps when strong polar storms project up from the Heard Island region, before being deflected away by high pressure sitting further east towards the Bight. This produces large surf with favourable winds out of the eastern quadrant.
Instead, we're due to see a large high setting up south-west of the state during the middle to end of this week, deflecting away any major storm potential for the first day of the waiting period, with a surface trough due to form into a severe mid-latitude low this Friday.
Severe low (aimed mostly north) nestled between two stong highs this Friday
The structure of this low isn't ideal for swell production, with the strongest and best looking fetch being aimed north into the Indian Ocean and Maldives region. A slim fetch of W'ly gales wrapping around the top of the low should produce a short-lived W/SW groundswell for the second day of the waiting period.
Sets to 6 foot are due and with cross-offshore NE tending lighter N/NW winds, creating options from Main Break to the Box - bumpier on the former. From Tuesday, conditions will deteriorate as the remnants of the low moves in from the west, bringing an onshore change as Monday's swell starts to ease.
Most models have the low/trough re-strengthening south of the region next Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing poor, strong S/SW winds along with no considerable groundswell energy. A brief window of cleaner conditions in between the next deepening low/trough may be seen later week but with the previous low dominating our swell window there'll be nothing significant swell wise into the end of the week.
Looking at the second half of the waiting period, and mid-latitude lows/troughs look to persist locally as well as blocking high pressure further to the south-west, making it tricky for any quality swell producers to develop through the Southern Ocean. Local winds will also remain an issue but we'll provide updates as the forecast unfolds.
Long-range Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for the period Monday 25 April to Monday 2nd May. Source ECMWF
The long-range Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly chart above shows the expected pressure difference from normal and with that high sitting across the main swell generating window, we rely on trickier systems forming in the area of low pressure directly west of the state. That being mid-latitude lows and troughs which traditionally aren't the best swell producers.
Comments
This will make the mid year cut an even harder pill to swallow.......
that west swell could be decent for some heats at the box
This is why I love WA.
"The structure of this low isn't ideal for swell production, with the strongest and best looking fetch being aimed north into the Indian Ocean and Maldives region. " and "Sets to 6 foot are due and with cross-offshore NE"
Less than ideal charts still delivering 6 foot surf.
I remember a mate of mine commenting that WA has the smallest number of under 1 metre high swell days per year (worldwide). He may have been exaggerating, or I may remember his statistic incorrectly; but you get the drift.
I remember it did go genuinely dead flat one day a few years back, people were pulling dinner plate sized abalone out of spots usually smothered in whitewater 365 days a year.
There are swell magnet beachies in the SW that still have head high surf on the smallest days of the year. Excess local wind tends to be the major problem round here.
Stop it please
The average daily wave height annually on the South Coast is 3m+. Literally doesn't drop below 6-10foot most of winter here bar a few days here and there. . Always looking for sheltered bays. IF only we had the setups like Margs down here dammit. Still...plenty of options.
damnnnn, my highlight of the year is watching JJF swoop across those big walls. Looking like another win for Toledo
Haha my first thought
well if you guys are forecasting it will be crap it will probably be pumping..........just saying as the track record for event forecasts isn't great
That's a bit rough Simba. Regarding Pipe the swells weren't anything special but the sand was epic and that mid-period stuff did all the work. And with Bells it came good for a few days but it wasn't the normal strong frontal activity bringing the swells. More so troughy weather and good quality polar energy.
I'd rather it come together better than expected than to it fall flat on an epic forecast. Just setting those expectations for this event.
And if it improves I'll update like I did Bells and Pipe.
Yeh real rough, Craigos nails it and updates when new data comes to hand. Love ya work
The forecasts have been a long way off, but that seems to be more to do with late developments.
Pipe was way better than the early forecast, and every other event has been undercalled pretty significantly.
No doubt you are hitting the nail on the head once updated information arrives, but I don't think its wrong to say that the early forecasts have been a fair way off (through no fault of anybody).
Another one of those people having a crack at the’ hand that feeds you’ , I bet you are young, the whole entitled few, probably whinge about Surfcams when they are down. Do you think being part of Swellnet has educated you or dumbed your senses, I think I no the answer. Really Simba.
Inadvertently we are getting a free education from the guys at HQ..
Young...he he he's bordering on Ancient..
Udo. Hi mate, I was wrong, wrong and wrong, misread the tea leaves. He’s in my age bracket I’d say. No offence intended to you Simba. I just get so sick of the whining from a few, especially when in reality, we have it all. I’ve obviously been watching and reading way too much of the plight of all the displaced Ukrainian people, who at present ,I feel like they have nothing. All the best for making me more the wiser.
The whining in this country from some is out of control Alf.
Look around and smell the roses. Especially us who can surf and enjoy what Oz offers.
$70 a year is not free
Very rough, Simba. Craig and the team do a great job
That wasn't a lions roar Simba, more like a sparrow's fart
Thanks, Craig - I reckon the WSL and punters alike were fortunate to get what they got in Victoria for the event - certainly could have been worse, much worse.
With that big, fat high pressure system in the middle of the swell producing window for Margaret's on the extended MSLP chart, not looking positive for WA, but things can change - let's hope so.
ok ok ok yeah a bit rough ...head butting wall........and i know how much mother nature can do the unexpected.....for the record the forecasts in general have been great but i hope your wrong about margs cause that means they will get pretty ordinary waves..
Good recovery, Simba. Rate that
"Even better, as the tour leaves town the rain and onshore winds are moving back in."
Hmmmm. Dunno about the "even better" bit there, Craig. I think the consensus position would be more likely to be that as the tour leaves town the surf pumps again so that there's a little less insult to injury after the nightmare 6 months we've had. Or perhaps I'm just being hyper-sensitive.
Yeah didn't mean any insult there, hopefully turns back on again soon!
Remember a recent comp at margies forecasts had at 6ft the wsl woke up to 10 to 12 ft with 15 ft bombs
Dealing with onshore surf and reading the play is part and parcel of being a good surfer. Any would-be world champ should have prove themselves in all conditions, whatever Mother Nature dishes up. The Margaret River comp has been held in onshore surf for an entire week on previous occasions, like when Kong and Pam Burridge won, carving big lumpy walls. There will most likely be some big testing days this comp. It will still look okay on the screen. For the surfers in such conditions, usual story, third and fourth set waves will provide a relatively smoother surface to ride. These testing conditions will still make for some interesting viewing...and results...especially with the cut drama happening. I am looking forward to seeing it unfold.
100%.
Well said.
Day 2 of waiting period , maybe 6’ box.
So guys that don’t charge the juice will get through a non elimination round.
The “Make or Break” production team currently working on arranging a Great White to clear a heat….I’m telling you now there will be a shark scare, shark or no shark
If it doesn’t pump during the first week in May then the world has definitely spun off kilter!
Hoping that low gets squeezed south by those big highs
All while the East Coast wave machine continues to pump. It would be very ironic if it went flat when the new Snapper comp starts
4-6 foot days is what the av. surfer can cope with ... the pros can perform exceptionally in bigger waves than most weakend warriors ...
Could WSL comps wait for the real juicy, timeless, waves.
P.S. There are waves at Heard Island 52°57'58.1"S 73°18'35.4"E
Mason & Torren snowdown..... BYO fully hooded wetsuit & booties
https://goo.gl/maps/GSxkZYJHzYFytHaz5
B Bird I'm lost! Send help. That link took me to the Zianchurinsky district in Russia, and i'm not sure i should be here!!
Re. Heard Island. Can you imagine the winds that place cops being that it sits in the direct swell manufacturing window for most of the southern ocean, right in the guts of the furious fifties. Can't imagine it'd be too dissimilar to Hawaii!! (except cold, dark, bleak, black, rocky, barren and no hula!)
Edited hyperlink on google maps above, Bd.
Heard Island has Mt Mawson, an active 2km high volcano.... might warm things up for the camera crew.
Maybe the furious 50's is why there is no Pro comps in South NZ?.... plenty of wildlife, pealing rivermouths & points.
So.. you need a hoody and booties to protect yourself from an active volcano at Heard Island. That is a little bit ordinary I must say.
t'was trying a 180 re-entry; based on Torren (& Mason) surfin near north pole region recently revealed exploits on swellnet.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/reels/2022/04/09/watch-torren-martyn-dista...
Mason at
https://www.swellnet.com/news/reels/2022/04/04/watch-masons-medieval-mad...
Abit above average WSL in W.A.
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/453443/perfect-10-point-rides-west...
Some Chinese in lockdown wait 5 weeks just to go outside atm.
70 heats with some hope at the end of the forecast. (Purely based on the first week in May is always good theory) Sounds difficult!
Wouldn’t want to be the one calling it on in the early rounds when people are facing the cut and conditions are unpredictable.
Sure about that DP?
Which part?
bad joke attempt after the quadruple post.
I agree with your post though, tough decisions to be made.
I got it, ha!
Margs looking fun this morning.
Wooops.. Its still only showing once on my screen. I've seen other people do that and wondered how they managed it! I definitely only commented once.
I deleted the extra comments (there were four in total). Perhaps a case of morning coffee jitters on the mouse?
Maybe! Or Just getting to that age where mysterious things start happening with tech interactions
Cape to cape will be super fun/pumping (average punter scale) all week with a few all day offshores. So odds are it will be victory at sea conditions next week.
Looks about 10 surfers and 4 photographers out The Box, few pros there already?
they're doing the WA trials today, not sure exactly where though if it's mains or box
Ah yep, few skis/limited people out Margs too, explains it.
Have to agree forecasts have been a bit off Craig. Mid period is great for pipe.. as is the lower periods for Box. Longer periods focus the energy to main break. Shorter periods shift it across to box. Bathymetry plays a bigger role in those locations with wave periods over 12 seconds. Unlike us suckers on the EC, which only get to see it come in to play a handful of swells a year
Be a surprise to see the wozzle run Box without Kieren.. been some shocking calls under JMD.
Always seems to be strong winds around Antarctica.
Hoping the pros get solid waves next Wed to Sat
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-prec...
after all the crap that went down from the monday experts at bells re the finals etc ….can’t help but feeling that this is all setting the scene to majorly shit-can the wozzle (again) for all the things they should have known and managed better.
…i’m just hoping the waiting period has some good surf, and we see some good surfing
Trials winners today: Ben Spence and Mia McCarthy.
Look forward to seeing them in action. Mia's second wildcard so a bit of experience on the big stage.
Should be noted that Ben Spence was the fella that played the character "Loonie" in the Tim Winton movie Breath, (great movie if you haven't seen it from down these parts).
He played the acting parts and also did the surfing in the movie including all those heavy water slabs that were surfed in the movie. Pretty epic effort for being a full grom at the time.
Competition wise, i saw him surfing in the Newy comp a few weeks ago and he was ripping. I reckon he might have even made the finals so he's got competition game.
Also in the same comp was Samson Coulter who played Pikey. He nearly got through to meet Ben in one of the final heats but didn't get through. Pretty classic to see their roads lead to there. Anyway, that's all i've got for now but definitely one to watch, as is Mia. She absolutely rips!!
Agh no way, how good!
Get through the early rounds as quick as possible.
Thur 28 at this stage, showing 9.3 m at 14.7 secs from the SW. SW onshore winds.
Send em out at Boaties or Cow!!!! Surfers be going everywhere.
No afficionado here but this 946hp thing in the deep south could push some large lumps up towards the capes.....winds are light all this week. Mornings clean and crisp, slight offshores, water temp 21c......shark factor low. If the high becomes stationary then epic, if it swish\s thru to Tassie a tight band of NW winds kills the mood. Just sayin. Dated 21/04/22
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
Nice now but winter is coming!
That it is. Proper run of large onshore surf coming!
I Was mucking around there. Was some amazing numbers. Likely be some spots up North. I was at the Bluff once on a Down Sth 10 metre swell. It was breaking off the reef at Bluff somewhere in the vicinity of 10 feet. Further Nth might have had options??.
Filipe will be terrified at any mention of The Box.
Geez, even with my rose coloured forecast glasses, i'm finding it hard to find too much joy in the current maps. Plenty of fun days though and always potential for things to change but looks like a dud year in so far as decent big swell goes.
It can't be! Surely there's something in the charts for you to get optimistic about! Swell galore.
They'd have to be super unlucky not to get 4 good wind days at this time of year.
OK DP....i scratched around the charts like a chicken looking for a skerrick of a feed, and i think there's enough in there that there's gonna be 5-6 foot on most go days. There's definitely one swell later in the period that could produce 8ft and offshore. Only problem is, everything is so far from the South next week, they'll mostly miss the Margs coast and hit here. Pretty much exactly what Swellnet have called. Almost a copy and paste, but yeah, that huge high.
But..definitely a massive wind swell in the mix to make the surfers feel really at home in wintery WA!! Good time for some wine tours and cheese by the fire i guess. Best i've got @dawnperiscope ;-)
Can they move the comp to Huzzas Tues/Wed?? :-P
Mainies, Box, and Northies (up to 2 days, no finals) are the only approved venues for this comp. It would be a no for huzzas or any other spot.
Not sure NP is in the mix this year?
Had the "pleasure " of surfing Margs yesterday with 20 or so of the "worlds best surfers" , they were doing a very good job of hassling each other for the rights , treating the left the way my dog treats the hole its dug in the lawn ( avoid looking at it or acknowledging it and it doesnt really exist) really strange , weird thing was the posturing/hassling and splashing around pretending like they may go left (even though everybody out there knew they wouldnt) and then going right , just a couple of old local boys getting more lefts that they would on a normal day, beautiful autumn conditions .
Another note of interest about the travelling pro crowd was they are not really as good looking in real life! ha ha ugly as a hat full of arseholes my grandad would have said about a fair few of em , no wonder they are struggling to sell product , much smaller too, looked to me like a bunch of overly self confident halflings that just robbed a surfshop and thats not even starting on the crew hanging around the contest site already.....
Haha, wow, thanks Mike.
Ive only surfed main break a few times but I thought the left had a pretty decent barrel section at the start? Sure the wall is a bit fat but it’s very surprising to me that the goofs don’t give it a go at least when it’s big. Any insight into that?
Definitely has a barrel section put the planets need to align with tide and swell etc.
Yep BD, when I saw those mad figures a few days ago, I was thinking the same, be Huzza Woooey Bombie!!! Jet ski assist!!! Be washing machine at 10 metres. Inside at Boris maybe!!!!.
They’ll have to run tomorrow hey, to get the BS rounds done.
Locals better phone in for a tee time now if you wanna get a round in this week!
I think there could be some good swell and conditions later in the waiting period. Its still a long way out and a lot can change in the southern ocean. I have always thought it is useless looking further out than 5 days in this area. You can get a general idea on the energy around heard island but the actual strength, direction and local conditions cape to cape can change fairly rapidly
May as well just give JJF the trophy now looking at the forecast
Reckon we will kick off tomorrow ?
Probably considering how the woozle like getting the contests in the can ASAP (going from the first three comps.) It’s going to be pretty bad to average at best over the next two days IMO. Small swell and gross wind for MB.
Is that the WSL Shark patrol boat doing laps at Margs atm
Those maps are looking alot more promising for great surf next week now from what i can see. Beautiful new big swell coming across with light and variable offshores. Fingers crossed.
Yep on the improve, some windows opening up following this week of onshores.