Update: Billabong Pro Pipeline Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Form Guide

Well, the first day of the Pipeline Pro was a spectacle. The predicted northwest groundswell was a welcome over-performer, which, along with light trade winds, made a perfect backdrop to the first day of the CT season.

The swell eased in size and power through Sunday, providing underwhelming conditions for the start of the women's event. Today the swell is smaller again and a lay day has been called. However, we've got a bunch of swells to fill out the rest of the forecast period, though they're mostly mid-range owing to a blocking pattern set up to the north-east of the islands.

So what's in store for the rest of the week?

A new mid-period NW swell is due to build rapidly through tomorrow, reaching a sizeable 8ft into the afternoon across the North Shore, generated by a small but intense front projecting towards the islands over the last couple of days. The morning will start small but build quickly and we're expecting gusty trades into the afternoon, so whether they put the contest on hold and keep an eye on the surf as it builds will be interesting to see.

The swell will ease fairly steadily in both size and power through Wednesday from the 6ft (to possibly 8ft) range early but with favourable E/SE trades, likely holding all day. This will be a competition day.

It looks like the surf will bottom out into Thursday ahead of some new, mid-period NW swell arriving through the afternoon followed by better reinforcing pulses Friday and Saturday.

The gradual uptick in swell energy will be generated by persistent but unconsolidated frontal activity spawning off Japan throughout this week, producing multiple fetches of strong to sometimes gale-force W/NW winds.

With each front acting on the activity before it we should see a gradual increase in size and period, with Friday's swell coming in at 4-6ft through the morning, muscling up towards 6ft+ throughout the afternoon with the next pulse of swell.

The strongest kick in swell is due Saturday, generated by the strongest burst of winds in the frontal activity but from a more western angle. This may impact the size a little across Pipeline but 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets are likely, easing slowly through Sunday.

Looking at the local winds and Friday morning will be clean with light E/SE-SE winds ahead of NE sea breezes, while gusty, strengthening trades will kick in from Saturday, E'ly in the mornings and E/NE-NE into the afternoons.

These winds will persist into early next week, with one more additional pulse of reinforcing NW swell likely Monday in the 6ft range. Longer term, there's the possibility a final pulse of NW groundswell at the end of the waiting period but we'll continue to monitor this and provide running updates.

Click for Swellnet's North Shore forecast and WAMs

Comments

Bungan33's picture
Bungan33's picture
Bungan33 Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 11:59am

Is that 8 ft Hawaiian...ie. 4-5 times overhead or 8 ft Vicco? (3 times over head) or 8 ft Sydney (head high)?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 12:04pm

Um 8ft Swellnet scale = Hawaiian.

3x overhead. Sydney 8ft is also 3x overhead.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 12:31pm

So that's Queensland 10-12ft?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 12:34pm

Ha!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 12:30pm

That's quite a scale... and a hilarious Sydney metric, given your username!

Bungan33's picture
Bungan33's picture
Bungan33 Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 1:49pm

Yes - Intimate knowledge of the Sydney surf scene. Interestingly, and only subjective and anecdotal, that the vicco 3-4ft swellnet reports are, seriously often double overhead - whereas when I head back to the insular peninsular, 3-4 ft swell net reports often correlates to real waves being slightly over head high.
Obviously my aforementioned scale is a knowing dig at the Av Cats sipping lattes at Swell cafe and shouting stories about wrestling 8 foot mountains at North Av.....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 1:51pm

Haha.

conrico's picture
conrico's picture
conrico Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 6:20pm

Can confirm what you are saying for a certain vic reporter. But heh, it’s always consistent and puts off crowds, so I ain’t complaining!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 3 Feb 2022 at 6:10pm

Which coast

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 12:28pm

Should be pretty good watching. The mid period scenario should make backdoor more of an option

Hazrus's picture
Hazrus's picture
Hazrus Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 4:52pm

I didn't expect it, but I'm loving the fact that there's been lots of great Pipe waves vs. Backdoor.

nextswell's picture
nextswell's picture
nextswell Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 7:24pm

Better than first forecast. Looks like we should see some decent conditions to see out the comp.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 8:12pm

As long as it’s big mean and clean .. great viewing

john.callahan's picture
john.callahan's picture
john.callahan Tuesday, 1 Feb 2022 at 8:25pm

Backdoor Pipeline likes a north angle, with the lefts favouring a west swell - if the forecast for later in the week is more of a westerly angle, we will see more of the famous lefthanders than the Ke12y/JJF Backdoor Rights -

Beaver's picture
Beaver's picture
Beaver Wednesday, 2 Feb 2022 at 2:35pm

Looks like the women will get their shot at throwing themselves over the ledge.Look forward to seeing them charge.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 2 Feb 2022 at 2:43pm

Nice, beaver.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Thursday, 3 Feb 2022 at 9:07pm

That was left field blowin..

Um.. mowing lawn may also have hazards.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 2 Feb 2022 at 2:48pm

I think I’ll mow the lawn instead.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 3 Feb 2022 at 4:28pm

The swell outlook has been upgraded slightly, Friday now looks to come in at 6-8ft, with Saturday more in the solid 8ft range with the rare bigger cleanup.

Perfect conditions to pick from for the Finals Days.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 3 Feb 2022 at 6:13pm

what about the billion dollar* question Craigoss?

*million dollar adjusted to inflation.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 12:40pm

Latest WSL newsletter ratcheting up the hype.

"History At Pipeline"

"XL Swell For Finals"

Queef Jerky's picture
Queef Jerky's picture
Queef Jerky Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:03pm

It would be great to watch the girls finals at solid pipe! Or did that already run?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:05pm

Looks like it's all happening tomoz.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:08pm

Ganna be so good to pwatch the girls go. I’m excited.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:03pm

Vox poll: You’re a rookie on the tour. The call has been made for your final day shot at Pipe glory to be determined in 10-12 foot bombs. You wake up at 3AM on the day to the roar and shake of the entire Pacific attacking the beach a few yards away. In a couple of hours you’re expected to disregard normal human emotions of fear and self preservation and get out there and go full warrior mode and take down the charging beasts.

What’s your go to psych up ….A or B?

A /

B /

Queef Jerky's picture
Queef Jerky's picture
Queef Jerky Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:05pm

I was leaning towards B but then I realised running up and down stairs might not be the best prep right before a solid surf.
Gonna have to go with A, mum's spaghetti gives lots of carbs!