Update: Billabong Pro Pipeline Forecast
Well, the first day of the Pipeline Pro was a spectacle. The predicted northwest groundswell was a welcome over-performer, which, along with light trade winds, made a perfect backdrop to the first day of the CT season.
The swell eased in size and power through Sunday, providing underwhelming conditions for the start of the women's event. Today the swell is smaller again and a lay day has been called. However, we've got a bunch of swells to fill out the rest of the forecast period, though they're mostly mid-range owing to a blocking pattern set up to the north-east of the islands.
So what's in store for the rest of the week?
A new mid-period NW swell is due to build rapidly through tomorrow, reaching a sizeable 8ft into the afternoon across the North Shore, generated by a small but intense front projecting towards the islands over the last couple of days. The morning will start small but build quickly and we're expecting gusty trades into the afternoon, so whether they put the contest on hold and keep an eye on the surf as it builds will be interesting to see.
The swell will ease fairly steadily in both size and power through Wednesday from the 6ft (to possibly 8ft) range early but with favourable E/SE trades, likely holding all day. This will be a competition day.
It looks like the surf will bottom out into Thursday ahead of some new, mid-period NW swell arriving through the afternoon followed by better reinforcing pulses Friday and Saturday.
The gradual uptick in swell energy will be generated by persistent but unconsolidated frontal activity spawning off Japan throughout this week, producing multiple fetches of strong to sometimes gale-force W/NW winds.
With each front acting on the activity before it we should see a gradual increase in size and period, with Friday's swell coming in at 4-6ft through the morning, muscling up towards 6ft+ throughout the afternoon with the next pulse of swell.
The strongest kick in swell is due Saturday, generated by the strongest burst of winds in the frontal activity but from a more western angle. This may impact the size a little across Pipeline but 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets are likely, easing slowly through Sunday.
Looking at the local winds and Friday morning will be clean with light E/SE-SE winds ahead of NE sea breezes, while gusty, strengthening trades will kick in from Saturday, E'ly in the mornings and E/NE-NE into the afternoons.
These winds will persist into early next week, with one more additional pulse of reinforcing NW swell likely Monday in the 6ft range. Longer term, there's the possibility a final pulse of NW groundswell at the end of the waiting period but we'll continue to monitor this and provide running updates.
Comments
Is that 8 ft Hawaiian...ie. 4-5 times overhead or 8 ft Vicco? (3 times over head) or 8 ft Sydney (head high)?
Um 8ft Swellnet scale = Hawaiian.
3x overhead. Sydney 8ft is also 3x overhead.
So that's Queensland 10-12ft?
Ha!
That's quite a scale... and a hilarious Sydney metric, given your username!
Yes - Intimate knowledge of the Sydney surf scene. Interestingly, and only subjective and anecdotal, that the vicco 3-4ft swellnet reports are, seriously often double overhead - whereas when I head back to the insular peninsular, 3-4 ft swell net reports often correlates to real waves being slightly over head high.
Obviously my aforementioned scale is a knowing dig at the Av Cats sipping lattes at Swell cafe and shouting stories about wrestling 8 foot mountains at North Av.....
Haha.
Can confirm what you are saying for a certain vic reporter. But heh, it’s always consistent and puts off crowds, so I ain’t complaining!
Which coast
Should be pretty good watching. The mid period scenario should make backdoor more of an option
I didn't expect it, but I'm loving the fact that there's been lots of great Pipe waves vs. Backdoor.
Better than first forecast. Looks like we should see some decent conditions to see out the comp.
As long as it’s big mean and clean .. great viewing
Backdoor Pipeline likes a north angle, with the lefts favouring a west swell - if the forecast for later in the week is more of a westerly angle, we will see more of the famous lefthanders than the Ke12y/JJF Backdoor Rights -
Looks like the women will get their shot at throwing themselves over the ledge.Look forward to seeing them charge.
Nice, beaver.
That was left field blowin..
Um.. mowing lawn may also have hazards.
I think I’ll mow the lawn instead.
The swell outlook has been upgraded slightly, Friday now looks to come in at 6-8ft, with Saturday more in the solid 8ft range with the rare bigger cleanup.
Perfect conditions to pick from for the Finals Days.
what about the billion dollar* question Craigoss?
*million dollar adjusted to inflation.
Latest WSL newsletter ratcheting up the hype.
"History At Pipeline"
"XL Swell For Finals"
It would be great to watch the girls finals at solid pipe! Or did that already run?
Looks like it's all happening tomoz.
Ganna be so good to pwatch the girls go. I’m excited.
Vox poll: You’re a rookie on the tour. The call has been made for your final day shot at Pipe glory to be determined in 10-12 foot bombs. You wake up at 3AM on the day to the roar and shake of the entire Pacific attacking the beach a few yards away. In a couple of hours you’re expected to disregard normal human emotions of fear and self preservation and get out there and go full warrior mode and take down the charging beasts.
What’s your go to psych up ….A or B?
A /
B /
I was leaning towards B but then I realised running up and down stairs might not be the best prep right before a solid surf.
Gonna have to go with A, mum's spaghetti gives lots of carbs!