Corona Open J'Bay forecast update
After two days of head-high rock runners, the surviving competitors of the J'Bay Open have some proper swell to look forward to with the event expected to end in great surf.
Today will be small with easing sets from the 3ft range, and the organisers have called a layday in advance. However, a low that's currently southwest of South Africa will project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through J-Bay's south-western swell window later today, stalling slightly south of the continent.
This will produce a large, long-period SW groundswell with sets building to 6ft+ through Friday afternoon, easing slowly from a similar, if not slightly smaller size, on Saturday morning.
Winds will be offshore Friday morning ahead of a shallow southeast change early-afternoon, with variable tending offshore winds Saturday morning ahead of sea breezes.
Following this, a small reinforcing southwest groundswell is expected on Sunday afternoon, though it's not likely to get above 4ft on the sets. Fortunately, there are bigger and better developments on the cards for the final days of the waiting period.
As indicated in the early forecast, we'll see a strong frontal progression taking place through next week when a slow-moving low with embedded fronts drifts in from the W/SW early next week.
Initially, this will create a 4-5ft southwest groundswell for Tuesday, but moving into Wednesday a vigorous front on the tail of the progression will push up into the South African coast during the morning providing a two-pronged hit of swell. Firstly, there'll be a local increase in S/SW groundswell through Wednesday afternoon, followed by a larger swell as the front continues to aim strong S/SW winds towards the coast.
At this stage it looks like we'll see J'Bay building to 5-6ft Wednesday afternoon, with larger 6-8ft surf on the cards for Thursday along with favourable winds from the western quadrant.
With this there'll be plenty of quality, moderate to large surf for organisers to pick the eyes out of.
Comments
right on. right on.
Could be a drawn out event then. What have they got left - maybe two full days of heats?
Roughly 16hrs of men's heats alone to surf and 8hrs to finish the women's side.
Cheers mbl. Better free up some arvo time at work next week
fuck i love jbay
Would there ever be any consideration for the locals? Like they could have 2nd, 3rd and 4th best days of that forecast but leave the best day for everyone?
I guess I’ll apply that question too all events.
Bone, the thing about being a local is that you have the privilege of being right there at the right time getting the best surf at your spot whenever it happens to be on. they certainly should not feel hardly done by giving it up for a few days. sharing is caring
Having had the 'seeding round' (LOL you could use the tour rankings for that) and 'elimination round' (LOL again as removing only 4 of 36 surfers is hardly elimination especially as usually 2 or 3 of those are wild cards anyway.
So we are on to the round of 32 which is really just ground hog day. But hey for J-Bay I can handle watching a extra day and half. Everywhere else not so much.
Sounds promising, Craig. Good work!
hey nick. it's always shitted me that in every speech at huntington, every surfer always thanks 'the locals' because they've obviously been told to, but at every other break it rarely if ever happens. so wsl give consideration to the locals? fat chance i reckon. lotsa talk about the north shore locals getting increasingly frozen out in recent years with fewer wildcards too iirc
Gotta love the bottom of the world for regularly producing the goods better than that woozy Pacific thing. I am trying to think when was the last dud at Jbay?
Gary notes that this is the 3rd event (at least) this year (after Bells and Keramas) where the forecast at the start of the event wasn’t much of a show-er, but revealed itself to be a grower once the action started.
Gotta love a grower!
Speaking of The Grower:
Woooooooooow! Did he make it?
Not sure, but apparently he was on a 5'10 CI Happy!
He didn't make it, lost the board, but had the time of his life..... (apparently) and was chaired up the beach when he got in.
Footage of it on his insta.
Go to wonder though. If there was no drone or photogs on the beach would he have gone?
they'll go overlapping heats in rd3.
I hope not.
Why would they do this if the forecast is looking so good at the end? Just to knock off Rd 3 Friday arvo?
yep. rd3 is now 16 heats which is a huge drain on time.
J'Bay is a tricky place to run overlapping heats. Sure, more surfing would be done, but with an elongated lineup with multiple takeoff points the likelihood of one heat interfering with the other is greater.
Too much surfing coming to run it anyway.
Maybe.
seems quite straightforwards too.
The non priority heat sits down the line and picks up the smaller/wider waves then moves into position when it is their turn.
worked at Bells, worked in Brazil.
it'll depend on how many waves are coming through though.
if it's slow then it won't work.
if there are heaps of waves it's a no brainer.
It was originally conceived for Pipe 'cos of the waiting period issues on the North Shore, and I recall KS explaining how it'd work there because there's no down the line takeoff area.
The idea that non-priority heats will sit down the line is theoretically great, until someone in a priority heat is scrambling for scores, perhaps paddling back out and looking for anything, so they drop in on a non-priority surfer.
Yeah I know.
But now they are using it to maximise surf time during swells, which works great.
Seen it work at D-bah and Brazil ; random beach break and right hand beachie and seen it work at Bells; right hand Point/reef.
Can't see any reason why it wouldn't work at Jbay for the above reasons.
When you are in the Priority heat you take the pick of the sets; when you are in the non-priority heat you pick up the unridden waves.
And we mow through Rd 3 in less time so they can maximise the peak of the swell/wind/tide combo for the pointy end of the comp.
Anyway we'll see what happens.
Thank you mother nature xxoo
Hope it cracks from boneyards to the point.
It at should be on your bucket list!
Its one thing to watch it.
After surfing it the reality of the wave comes more into play.
I have a hard time watching it in conditions like the first day of the waiting period.
It has to be a certain size for the wave to really work .
Is it as hard to surf "well" as it's always said to be? And as fast as it looks?
Bucket-list wave for sure!
It depends on what "well" is I guess.
I was lucky enough to have a friend from S A ( who lived in jbay for years) .....tell me the ins and outs of jbay before I even arrived.
He basically gave me the secret treasure map.
I shall not be divulging the info anywhere.
Fair enough!
Pops don't be fooled - there is no secret treasure map. Just follow the locals out the keyhole snag yourself a bomb and be prepared for the biggest, longest, quickest, most perfect wave of your life.
Yeah, there's few spots you can't work out by watching the ocean and the locals for a while... after that its just a matter of respect, patience and committing when your number comes up, hey.
Oh yes there is......
I don't think there's much too much of a secret out at supers, unless you're talking about the angle of the keyhole just to the right of what was Derek Hynd's house on the cliff :p
My longest wave ever in Jbay still remains as one I caught just off from the peak at coins (section after impossibles where the kneeboarders always get shacked), made it past the tubes take off, then past the point keyhole and all the way down past the bottom carpark at lower point, and nearly made it to Abatross!
You don't start at the key hole silly you paddle out at albatross....
Ha ha never thought of that option Lanky!!! Although I did once come in near there all the way from Boneyards. Wondered why I had jellylegs!!!!
I surfed it for a bit at a decent size a few years ago, and I found it hard to surf well. Easy wave yes, the pro's make it look easy to surf well. Twiggy was the only one surfing boneyards on the biggest day, very few linked up because the swell direction was off a bit, he got injured out there and came hobbling in. Check out "The Pure Line" doco on J-Bay, Shaun Tomson knocks the wave character on the head.
Will do!
"Hope It Cracks From Boneyards To The Point"
They'll need 3 judging stands and additional camera locations for that one Lanky.
Be a sight to see though wouldn't it.
Problem is most of the pros don't know where to sit on the good days!! Ive watched mulitple jbay contests in solid surf and if baffles me how (usually) the brazzos (de Souza being the exception) sit waaay down the point giving up 100m or more further up of wave for some reason. I guess they don't put the time in the water enough to figure out the lineup. My guess is they don't want to surf when no drones are up to spot the dark shades lurking nearby.
You can tell the surfers than have put the time in as they sit way up the point on those proper days knowing the wave will hold its shape (albeit fast) from end of boneyards right through. Curren, KS, Fanning, Occy, Parko come to mind who naturally maximise the lineup. Next thursdays forcast looks interesting and I'll certainly make a day of it if it pushes 6ft plus. To be fair WSL put on a good contest and the infrastructure available to the public is first class. I'm happy to sit out a day or 2 in the season to watch the best in the world have a crack.
Top jbay surfers in no particular order
Franky
Curren
Occy
Parko
Fanning
Jordy
Koffie
Holmes
Thomsons.
I'd put Derek Hynd on that list too, same with Warren Dean and Dylan Stone
Gavin Rudolph Peers Pittard
That swell still on track for today?
I was hoping to enjoy a lazy Friday arvo watching but the missus went and planned an impromptu dinner with friends so the kids could have a play date.
After all the time spent in the water lately I could only meekly reply with ..."That's a great idea love".
It's her friend too...the husbands a tosser.
Me and my first world problems.
Yep swell is on track. Timing is for an arrival midday, so high chance they'll be on hold from 4pm or so. You can tick off the dinner, get home and switch it on into the evening.
Perfect...I was hoping you'd say that!
Thanks Craig.
Excellent. I'll be able to watch it for a bit at the airport over a beer before heading back to Adelaide for the weekend. Going to see what I can find tomorrow down south. Ain't going to be pretty!
Onshore Dump grovel? Yuck.
Will have a look closer to the Bluff. if not there, between PE and Dribs. Dump will be ugly.
Sounds like a great night ahead for you crg!!!
Anyone know why they didn't run it Friday afternoon?
That said it was building, but too inconsistent.
bad winds? I don't know.
I think the swell arrived too late.
"Swell bigger than expected" Compared to Surfline's forecast yes, but not our expectations. The low was quite strong and slow moving so we should see good and solid sets most of the day.
What a setup on a cold Saturday night
Same WOTL, switching between the footy..
Ha wow I like yours better ,)
I got a hard time from my wife because I had Geelong v St Kilda on the tele and JBay on the computer, then the tennis came on and I think cricket as well. Never have enough sport!
So what's the latest forecast? They gonna run today?
Nah already called a lay day as we're in between swells. We should see a couple of good new SW groundswells filling in tomorrow, easing Wednesday.
Winds aren't great tomorrow (N'ly devilish), better Wednesday, while we've got a good new swell for Friday which I'm guessing they will finish on.
Hey Craig, any chance you've looked at the forecast for next week, after the comp? Asking for a friend...
Let your friend know that the forecast is looking excellent all of next week Tim. Large back to back swells and with great winds. Very jealous!
Thanks Craig. Really appreciate it.
Said friend is trying to keep a lid on it, but is quietly frothing out of his mind.
Ok thanks Craig.
Howzit , my two cents for the best at Supers, adding to the list;
Johnathon Paarman
Richard Cram
Gary Timperley
Valdar Vargas
Mitch Thorson
Davy Stolk
Garth Dickenson
Joel Fitzgerald
Warren Dean
Probably a few more but its been quite a number of years to keep track of everybody.