Qualifying scenarios going into Sunset
Coming out of Haleiwa the front runners on the Qualifying Series have split into six of one and half a dozen of the other.
The top six: Jesse Mendes, Griffin Colapinto, Kanoa Igarishi, Tomas Hermes, Yago Dora, and Willian Cardoso have all done enough to qualify for the 2018 Championship Tour. QS leader Mendes had his position wrapped up by July while Cardoso was assured his spot with a good finish at Haleiwa this week.
There's a 3,000 point jump from sixth to seventh place, but then just 450 points seperates the next six places. It's heavy traffic and this is where the drama is going to unfold come the World Cup at Sunset Beach starting in three days. It's also among this peloton that Wade Carmichael finds himself in his bid to qualify.
WSL Tour co-ordinator and unofficial statistician Al Hunt puts the cut off this year somewhere between 17,500 and 19,000, with Carmichael sitting in eighth on 16,800 points.
Two years ago Carmichael missed the cut off by two places, helped largely by a 10,000 point surge after winning Haleiwa. This year he's been far more consistent racking up solid finishes throughout the year. His best result (in terms of placing not points) is a second at the HIC Pro at Sunset back in October, a result that should instill quiet confidence. Yet he'll need that confidence to make the cut, because of the back six Carmichael is holding onto the 'highest low score', meaning he'll need a very solid finish to improve his position on the rankings (QS rankings are based on the best five results).
Carmichael's possible finishes are as follows (remembering the cut off is between 17,500 and 19,000):
25th place at Sunset: 16,800
17th place: 17,000
13th place 18,300
9th place 18,500
7th place: 19,800
5th place 19,900
4th place: 21,000
3rd place 21,400
2nd place: 22,700
1st place: 24,700
Meanwhile, the points finish for the top 40 of the Qualifying Series are as follows (yeah, you'll have to squint):
It often happens that the CT big dogs take all the money and points at the Hawaiian QS events, and the same may well happen at Sunset, yet as you can see very few CT surfers are within strike range of upsetting the QS contenders. And then those that are will likely double qualify, such as Igarishi, Toledo, Smith, Morais, and Duru, or retire as Josh Kerr is doing.
The Vans World Cup at Sunset is the final contest of the Qualifying Series and begins on November 25th.
Comments
No need for anymore pro surfing anywhere. The oceans are replete with plastic foam. These gyrating human billboards have shifted mountains of product and promoted the living bejesus out of whatever's left. They can all take a well earned rest, they've done a terrific job.
Not alot of Aussies in the mix eh.
Doesn't look that way. I was thinking the same thing .....
Even with the High Performance Centre doing such critical work .
Guffaw.
We have arrived at a similar place to the USA of the past thirty years .
The Oils and Moby said it better than I can :
Too much of sunshine
Too much of Sky
I'm already number 1 .
Why try harder ?
Aussies are complacent with nothing to prove . Speaking for myself , it's a great place to be !
Critical over coaching.
A few years ago the state junior programs were there abouts dismantled in favour of HPC and it’s come back and bit them on the arse.
Promising juniors were overlooked for support in favour of established surfers who had already qualified and are now either retired, fallen off circuit or about to retire.
Get back to supporting juniors and we might see more Aussies qualifying in years to come but it’s not going to happen until the pathways are put back in place
Was unaware , must be disheartening for the younger generations. Seems like a misdirected concept or plan they had there seal. I think parents really help in the qualification scenario. even to keep straight focus on qualification rather then enjoying travelling the world . Even writing it sound harsh. ........
Maybe the groms don't have the critical mass of numbers surfing all day every day because surfing in Australia is now a middle aged past time .
This is true, and no matter how much money they throw at the HPC, it can't take away that fact.
yeah but the high performance center sure looks impressive......lol
Qualifying means you can grovel in garbage waves. There's only about 3 or 4 surfers on that whole list that will either succeed or I'd like to see surf on tour.
Oh yeah, we so need a much more vigourous junior pro program. There just is'nt enough comps going on and god knows how much we lack for pro surfers and wannabe pro surfers in this country. It's a travesty, why just the other day I was checking the surf at Angourie and a perfectly good wave went thru unridden. Disgraceful. Would'nt happen in Brazil. Australia is the laughing stock.
Expert coaching & high performance camps are great but, on top of the talent, you've got to have the hunger. Kids from disadvantaged backgrounds (read Brazil) have more hunger to succeed. Look at the junior tennis players from the Eastern Bloc and their domination of the satellite tours. Too many heavily sponsored over paid 'next big things' flame out early when it's all put on a plate for them...based on what they're EXPECTED to do in the future as opposed not what they've ACTUALLY done. Just a thought?
Very well thought out comment and bang on. One thing we notice from the water is the amount of coaches and parents guiding them from the shore so the groms spend more time watching the beach as to where they should be sitting instead of learning to read the ocean and it's movements like our past champions.
MRedhill and water patrol comments are absolutely spot on
Too much to soon and too many overbearing meddling parents who should let the kids work it out for themselves, cotton wool parenting at its worst
Having recently moved to Sydneys Northern Beaches it really stuck me how few groms there are in the water. Having grown up in land locked Melbourne suburbs I was expecting frothing kids surfing before and after school everyday. Truth is there seems to be a handful of regulars at each break and a few more with dads in weekend but overall very few. I'm not complaining - the numbers of Brazilians, Japanese, French, British etc keep things busy enough.
Wow! Wherever this magical place is, stay there. Don't come to the mid nth/nth coast unless ya wannabe mowed down by armies of teenage wannabes
Did you ever notice how old the line ups were in vicco ? I moved there in my early twenties for Education/ Employment and I could not believe that I was continually the youngest surfer in the line up.
Then I started to think well you have to be a certain age to drive. You have to have free time. You have to have a disposable income
Then you also have to have a good wetsuit. Otherwise it's probably more of a deterrent.
There are kids on the northern beaches that surf, it's either they choose to go to school in the morning or that surfing has become that serious that they focus there energy elsewhere.
Were I am from if you weren't pro by 15. Then you weren't going to be..... ( you also would live in the shadow of a four time world champ.) Its the way the industry works.
2 surfers i would like to see on tour because i think they can bring something.
Mikey Wright and Soli Bailey.
Gee dropping Fiji and bringing in a 3-4ft wave pool ? Not sure about that one.
I think a lot of people like to see the best surfers in some challenging 8 - 10 ft waves where their talent shows. Dont know what a surfer like Owen Wright thinks about 3ft waves in a pool ? And throwing Fiji away ?
Probably shaking his head still i imagine.
No idea why that comment appeared three times folks
In Gary's experience, three is always better than one
Hawaii often subdues the aussie rookies
though the power is another level
Wade Carmichael scrapes into Rd 4 by .43 of a point.
Still in the race for a CT place.
Sheesh, the big fella is having some close calls, but fortunately they're going his way.
Into Rd 5 by just .3 of a point.
No rd5 he’s in the quarters and on tour according the numbers you’ve got up there
Well done, Wade!
Wade was easily the best to watch out there.
Wow ,Wade gets a 5 something for a massive hack and connor coffin gets a 7 something for a half turn.....Well done Wade,cunt rips!
How much impact did Kelly Slaters disdain for Sunset contribute to its relegation to a lesser tiered wave in surf competition ?
Slater part owns WSL assets and commercial interests. , I,m no lawyer but I suggest that opens up the whole conflict of interest door.. That aside ,forget about 2018 ,, the WSL has bigger plans . https://surfbunker.com/blog/wsl-schedule-2019-was-martinez-right