Where were you at 400ppm?

Well we've never had a debate of this scope before, ever.

Caution, grand statement approaching...

For the vast majority of human existence we've never had to think beyond one season into the future. In fact, most of our thinking is of the moment: hunger, shelter, safety, sex. And just like physical atributes, that's how evolution has shaped us - to think in the short term.

We're simply not able to prepare for the future. We can't call on our instinct or wisdom because in this matter there is none. 

Now there's a thought , get Vernon to put his money where his mouth is , how much would be enough for you ?
Using your idea about being responsible for statements you make , could we apply this to politicians and skeptics , if they are wrong what would you penalize them ?
The issue is how fast is our climate changing and what are the consequences?
We all have insurance for our houses and you will probably be insured against fire/floods/lighning etc , where there is only a miniscule chance of that happening , so what insurance are we taking with Climate change ?
If you don't believe that the climate is changing at all , fair enough , don't do anything , but if you do , it's an argument about timing , if you do nothing its a doomsday scenario, but generally humans wake up eventually , and will think and plan their way out of any crisis , but planning ahead and being proactive , is simply taking out an insurance policy for our kids , the difference being there is very big change coming to our habitat!

sea level rise , is something that if you have lived on the coast for 50 years , is visible everywhere , but what are the scientists saying?
We seem to be studying a relative new area of climate change and yes the jury is out on the timeline on when we pass critical levels , but.......

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/20/sea_level_study_james_...

I'm a no insurance guy

But I'm in on climate change anyway

I think Vernon needs to advise that sea level rises will be very dependent on your location. Hence the 'fear' factor should be clearly noted. It's not in this case.

"sea level rises will be very dependent on your location"

You're a fucking classic!

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

Its windy where I live much more than down in the valley

Not that I'm particularly bright but I don't really get it - for example, there's two estimations right next to each other at Santa Barbara, one showing a sea level rise of zero to one feet per century, and the next showing a rise of one to two feet per century.

I think I understand local variations due to tides affected by topography, and I reckon I understand localised mounding due to atmospheric variations but I can't say I understand different rates of general sea level rise.

If this can be explained I'll be happy to apologise to TB.

Didn't read that Veron was talking about all coasts.

this old cunt has some wisdom...

"the deterioration of nature is closely connected to the culture which shapes human coexistence: when 'human ecology' is respected within society, environmental ecology also benefits." .

Benedict XVI

AndyM - I was referring to
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/
I assume this is a reputable source. It shows the variability of ocean rises. Importantly, we are not sure exactly why.
If you go to the Maldives ask them about bleaching.

Stu, great post but we do have the wisdom and instinct to plan for the future. The information is all around us. We are all one is more than a new age mantra, it is a key to tapping into the interrelationship knowledge of planet earth. By stopping,observing and using our data of previous transitions and adaptations we are well prepared to plan for a sustainable future. Nature demonstrate's full efficiency of resources. Humanity doesn't. We have to cut out pollution. Practice harmonious agriculture. Restock the oceans. We also need to move away from a coastal centric and city centric mind set. We have the data,we have the knowledge, but will we have the wisdom to act on what we know? As said, this is not about climate change, but about humanity's willingness to become capable inclusive custodian's of biosphere earth.

Personal opinions are fine but that's the first time I have heard a 'world leading' scientist hand out real estate advice. And he should know better than that. 10 years is not a long time and if he's wrong then, as a top gun expert, I,d say thats going to a do a lot of damage to his cause and credibility. This wouldn't be the first time an 'expert' has cried wolf .
Hopefully I will be around in another 10 years , if the impending floods an famines don't kill me first , to check the high tide mark and coastal development that is currently taking place.
Given Verons advice , is Swellnet considering shifting its HQ to Mount Warning in the near future?

I humbly apologise TB.

And I accept your apology for suggesting that the only way to get from the Gold Coast to Lennox in under an hour is by helicopter ;)

"the deterioration of nature is closely connected to the culture which shapes human coexistence: when 'human ecology' is respected within society, environmental ecology also benefits."

That old cunt does have some wisdom. In stark contrast to that other famous Catholic cunt, T Abbott. Which is what I mean when I say it spans ideologies.

"...this is not about climate change, but about humanity's willingness to become capable inclusive custodian's of biosphere earth."

Sure is Daverave, that's why the word from our illustrious leaders ain't worth a pinch of shit, and is losing the debate

Neoliberalism compartmentalised everything to such a point it will take decades to undo the thinking....just as the initial brainwashing took decades.

We all do it now, pick and choose our causes...while the world burns around us

But don't worry the middle class mums are buying earth brand detergent advocating CC and being "mindful", ...whilst living in concrete box mc mansions, where one "has" to use air-con, clothes dryers and big screen TVs, driving around in the Toorak tractor, dropping the little fatties at school etc etc.

so educated...but so dumb.

Care to whitewash this anyone? TS? Tony?

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/astounding-shifting-sto...

.... Sypkan, your last comment about McMansions is spot on, but the neo-liberal government can't legislate against STUPID design, against good design principles that have been known for 1,000s of years, because that would be interfering with the holy grail i.e. "the market". People must be free to be stupid in building their houses.

Oops forgot about the 'travel time' comment. Really , having done it many time I would be pressed to get there. But stand to be corrected. For me a local is closer than that but that's a personal call.
Anyway the CC debate is complex and the positive out this is certainly a ton researth is being. More so than normal. I still have an issue on the probability figures for all sorts of changes when really we know so little.

between sypkans last post and indos page 1 remark we have all we need to know. continually debating the science is counterproductive, and even harmful in some sense. science will not solve this issue on its own, and we need to realise that. its bigger than that.

although i pain to quote bible bashers, pope john paul did say that this issue of 'emission' cannot be tackled as a single element. this is about humans relationship with the environment.

although BB trashed my link to Mark Sagoff's philosophy argument there is some truth in what he is saying. a complete overhaul of global "economic" theory will be required before we can be properly environmentally sustainable.

Some bloke once said ,, "I was skeptical about climate change . I was cautious about crying wolf . I am always cautious about crying wolf. I think conservationists have to be careful in saying things are catastrophic when , in fact, they are less than catastrophic".. David Attenborough .
As for scientists putting their money where their mouth is, this an oldy but a goldy www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/12/31/258687278/a-bet-five-metals-and-th..... "Paul Sabin at Yale says, personally he's worried about the environment. And he wonders if the bet actually poisoned the waters, helping to to set the stage for a world where environmental debates are framed by extremes, one side warning of certain catastrophe , and the other side saying everything is going to be great"..
And as for the fable ,,"crying wolf may have been the boys undoing, but the true irony is that the wolves were always lurking nearby " Wes Fesler
We shouldn't disregard the threat at all ,by any means, but lets keep things on an even keel

Yes, debating the science is now very counter productive. For well over two years now, it should always have been about solutions - economic solutions, engineering solutions, scientific solutions, etc
The SA energy debacle is a typical example where ideology had taken over from the currently used economic , engineered system used in SA.
I suggest you will evidence will continually be presented supporting CC. Similarly, we have evidence contradicting or 'unexplainable' in CC.
Hence, that may be why Attenborough and Sagin have set their positions.
One point which is not in dispute, is that we all do care the environment.

Just read this yesterday, Who's old enough to remember BP Pick a Box ?
https://theconversation.com/barry-jones-in-climate-change-everything-old...
nice bit of history

Barry Jones, the man with the mind like a steel trap.

Debating 'the science' is never counter productive , in fact , its a very big part of science, though preferably I'd rather hear scientists debate the topics rather than ill informed bloggers ,social media commentators and half arsed journalists and politicians .

While arguing the science of any topic needs to occur, I feel the "debate" on climate change is counter productive as it gives skeptics, and even the rest to a point, a reason not to act now. A rising climate will no doubt have irreversible effects on humanity, but what if things are screwed prior? Is the "debate" too focused on one element of the state of the environment?
While there is doubt in the air, pollution levels in that same air rise. While there is debate on whether or not sea levels have/are/will rise those same oceans are being choked with waste that is really beyond comprehension. The predictions of plastic production & disposal along with the already dire situation in some areas may be the biggest issue we face.
There may need to be a more broader enlightenment of people globally to the plight of things, rather than just whether or not one element in the atmosphere is the cause of potential disaster in the future.
Maybe current environmental issues will cut through the bullshit and give people more reason to act now, with reducing global warming always being the end goal?
I know the sentiment is fairly well known here, but while the global warming "movement" has the ear of the world maybe something as simple as consuming less (petrol/gas/plastic/electricity/packaging etc) as a starting point is a more realistic short term goal for everyone world wide? We can all then make a difference right now.

Is that what you're doing ?

I guess the comment was more a take on the current "climate" of the debate. Rather than me getting on my high horse. To be honest I could do way more. I'm guilty of living the good life in Oz. If that's a crime. I'm no self sufficient eco warrior but I try to do my bit, as small as that may be in the scheme of things.

Nice one.

My recycling bin is full ,,but I just filled the old 4wd with diesel , to offset that I'm going to mulch my lawn clippings tomorrow,, but shit , I need new rubber for my next rego check, and my iphone just wont function without lithium, so maybe I'll plant a few trees , donate some money to some eco warrior so they can ban the mines and drill rigs that make all this even possible. As far as renewables go , I,m all for a proportional and measured response, but I don't think we should put the cart before the horse.

I have been playing Far Cry Primal, when I should be looking for a job or writing. The abundance is beautiful. There is death, but it seems consequential, a part of life, in a brutal way.

We are on this merry go round, it is getting faster, people are getting thrown off. I am not on the controls, I am playing my game.

Just got back from gathering some food from the property.

The blueberries are going crazy, avocados , passionfruit , oranges , lemons , tangelos , lemonades , mandarines , sapotes, loquats , capsicum , bananas , tomatoes , bok choy ,pommellos , grape fruit ,limes , kale , spinach , potatoes , carrots , broccoli , snow peas , kaffir lime , lettuce , various herbs and the coffee ain't far off ready.

Stone fruit flowering now.

Threw in a few more native flowering plants to give the birds something to chew on.

Compost and worm farm powering.

Looks like the wild dogs are smashing the wallabies. Bastards.

Should do something about them . Do I trust myself with a gun ? Probably not.

Fishing tonight.

Too bad I've got to drive a couple of hours each way to see a specialist today.
Do what you can I guess .

where you gunna fish Blowin?

Fuck blowin where is this magical place that all those things grow at the same time of year? Coz they certainly don't down here.

Sounds like heaven

Or Coles:)

@Blowin, sounds like you have some good things going.

If you accept this sort of report the near future for parts of Australia will be very different to what we are used to. As I said at the start of this topic I hope to see the reef again before this summer ....

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/extreme-el-nino-even...

The thing about these types of predictions is that some of the most vocal critics of any action to combat the effects of climate change, i.e. the people and their elected National Party representatives of Far North Queensland, will be the most effected by more severe weather events/storms and changed weather patterns in general.

Freeride - Just throw a slice off the rocks on dark . Usually grab a few tailor pretty quickly.

Goofy - Upper mid North Coast hinterland valley . Crazy seasons here.

Mangos in March . Had an amazing mulberry yield in April ! Baby Tree snakes all over the verandah this morning.

Sounds great blowin. Almost worth putting up with the sharks.

I agree , Batfink.

The sharks freak me .

More than a few times you'll find me waxing up slower than humanly possible hoping that another surfer will show up.

Then you just get on with it...

What about the unicorns, Blowie? They can get nasty!

Shatner ( tapping microphone ) :

"Is this thing on .....? "

I think the science is far from 'settled'.
https://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/why-scient...

Are you scared ,BB ?

for people to be scared the conversation needs to have meaning.

put CC effects in its true context: increased poverty, increased inequality, global security concerns, more conflict/war, increased costs of living, increased migration/refugees, population explosion in india/africa, disease, etc etc etc. CC compounds all these current problems.

now frame that as a picture of the lives of your future children.

course, if you dont have kids then your only dilemma is one of morality.

happy, you could also add the likely mass extinction of species in the natural world compounding the problems you refer to.

Since we don't have a snap-frozen marine life thread (we should have one), I'll post this here:

https://www.willyweather.com.au/news/7294/it+is+so+cold+in+the+united+st...

Happy New Year folks.