Trump and the risk of war
Been thinking whatever happens externally Americans will be at war with themselves for the next 4 years, at least. Further, if Trump is the new (IMO low) standard what and who will follow? God help us.
Yeah Blindboy, just a joke mate.
Don't let it distract you or bring you down, just lightening the mood.
I see your point Blind Boy but I'm looking further afield than that. We don't NEED them to buy our raw materials, but we would like them to. If that relationship ceased due to war etc our economy would be cooked & unemployment would be awful but we'd still survive. Our country at least can produce it's own food. We also have so many other resources to offer the world and as our dollar would crash with the accompanying recession we could probably plug that gap pretty fast. And we may even finally get to feast on our own A+ grade food produce.
We also still get to trade with the other Western nations. China wouldn't.
If our dollar is at rock bottom we could even start manufacturing again as it's the cyclical nature of economies. The world would probably continue manufacturing in Thailand, Japan, Mexico etc to name a few as it did prior to the China.
China on the other hand likes our materials but they NEED our food. A friend of mine was in China the other day and without realizing it he bought a FAKE EGG. He could peel the layers back one by one. You would be amazed just how desperate they are for any kind of protein.
We're heading for a recession regardless but our country and governments survive social unrest because we just kick them out and get a new one. Not so much with China.
We all agree that Trump is a muppet but it'll be good for someone to finally address this issue directly and even better if it's not us. Ruffle a few feathers. The Chinese government holds much fewer cards than people think.
Some good points there Gaz. I was sort of surprised that everyone focused on China in the comments. Of the three scenarios I presented I think that is the least likely. China has no reason to want war and is diplomatically sophisticated enough to avoid it barring rank stupidity from the US. Sadly that cannot be ruled out as long as Trump remains President.
It's a sad fact that the USA is a war mongering nation, regardless of who is in power. Personally, I think Trump will be about as good as Kim Jong Un but I guess we'll see one way or the other.
I don't know the figures but I'm pretty sure we still do more trade with the USA than the Chinese so we will probably get dragged kicking & screaming down whatever rabbit hole they lead us.
Perhaps Trump will be able to defuse the Russian situation by lifting the sanctions in exchange for withdrawal of Ukraine who knows he's a wildcard. For all we know he only acts like a deranged bingo player to get an advantage when negotiating. I certainly hope that's the case
Yes, some interesting thoughts. but BB your ferocious comments and view of Trump is purely hyperthetical. Until he actually makes some decisions, we all just don't know how he will behave. We can get a fair idea from the people that he brings in around him but one cannot compare him to the likes of Stalin or Hitler. Hence your reviews have no solid basis. Whereas China's behaviour is real and actual. The government is ruthless with respect to dissent. The Crown Casino affair showed no favour to foreign entities and even less for the local people.
Blowin writes "That's as pure an example of apologism as I've ever seen Blindboy "
I totally agree.
If a simple logical explanation of motivation is apologism, then there is not much hope of serious discussion. I made it clear that, for the purpose of the argument, I was not considering rights and wrongs. As for the comparisons with Hitler, Stalin etc, it was quite clear that the reference was to a characteristic of their leadership style. If you managed to infer more than that, you misread my meaning, which I consider was quite explicit.
The whole article - start to finish - is about how unquestionably wrong Trump is.
You paint China as a maligned neutrality attempting to merely forge a place for itself.
Objectivity didn't even get a run . So please don't say it's not about wrong or right.
If you actually believe that there is genuine similarities -
leadership or otherwise - between Trump and Hitler beyond your equal dislike of both then that's your issue to deal with.
Please don't put it forward as a statement of fact and the readership are uncomprehending for not being in agreement.
Trump is a blathering braggart, probably nothing more sinister than that. Just because a braggart attains great power doesn't render him evil.
And yes Blindboy.
It was pure, unadulterated apologism.
Sinophile much ?
"Serious discussion".......
Then specify your "rules of engagement", BB..... Until then, the thread should be allowed to take it's organic course without being passively aggressively coerced in one direction
The reason I found one post of yours blatantly apologetic is because of a certain, how should we say, "post truth"...... You write;
"As I said before the rights and wrongs of China claiming those islands is not the issue. Great powers do what suits them within their own sphere of influence so China will not be dissuaded or intimidated. Their purpose in establishing military bases is straight forward. A huge percentage of their trade passes through those waters and they want to ensure that it cannot be blockaded or otherwise interfered with by rival powers. "
As emotive for the chinese as it may be, any wood duck knows the military bases are not there to protect "THEIR TRADE"....... That's pure spin.... Propaganda.... The major purposes for this "ocean grab" is the estimated trillions worth of natural resources around the Spratly's and Paracells, AND to be in charge of OTHERS TRADE. The Malacca straight and South China sea makes up for 30% of all shipping on a global scale.... Anything fro the Suez canal going to ANY Asian country in that region goes through the south China sea, and vica versa....
1/3 of the world LNG gas passes though there, with japan being the major destination.
Now...... Below is the region China claims is "theirs", even though the international court in the Hague ruled against them, which China did a "Trump" on and said "fuck you"...
Lastly overlap that map with the next one... Note the massive oil deposits off Malaysia and Vietnam, AND the exploration area between the spratlys and paracells ALL falling within China's red dotted line ...
Shocking that China should attempt to manipulate maritime boundaries to gain access to resources. I mean Australia would never do anything like that! You can second guess me on the reasons for the bases. I still maintain that they have more to do with responding to the risks to trade posed by US bases than with a resource grab. Either way, I made no apology for China's behaviour, just pointed out the probable motivation. Saying, as I did, that great powers do what they want within their spheres of influence is not an apology, it's a reality. The approval or disapproval of others counts for little in their calculation.
BB. thanks for your posts. its definitely helped me to understand the matter. didnt know so many US bases were in the area.
i read that the US has some sort of treaty with the phillipines to protect it if aggravated, or something of that nature?
.
Saw two senior ethics/US constitution professors/lawyers on telly tonight. Both were saying Trump will not last 2 years given the conflict of interest issues he will face as president and the way he has structured his businesses. Apparently in goes all the way back to the US' constitution and as president he is barred from receiving money from a foreign entity, under current arrangements with his son's managing the businesses, in law, he will be in breach of the constitution. Impeachment proceedings could be started the day after he becomes president! Wouldn't that be sooooo sweat.
Did you see that the Philippines has appointed their special trade envoy to the US. It just happens to be Trump's business partner in the Philippines.
The big rort is on, boys. Get on board!
yep wally, saw that. part of the same story i saw on ABC TV.
Of course it is a reality, BB..... But just as I have HEAVILY criticized the USA for going against the Umpires call re' Iraq 2 (U.N said no), I hereby heavily criticize China for going against the umpires call (The Hague).
And 2 wrongs don't make a right.
And if you back Timor over our ocean grab, which I do, then to be ideologically consistent, when you look at the map above, you'd have to back Malaysia, Vietnam, Phillipines over China in regards to the Spratlys.. If the USA or any other nation was behaving like China is, the media would be going off it's nut....
You know me, BB...... I'm the first to call out the USA.... But I wont on the South China Sea.... And I'm the first to call Trump a phony..... But if Hilary had won, we'd be having a thread titled "Hilary and the risk of war"
Real shame about Bernie imo..
The point was to steer clear of rights and wrongs and just look at the risks. If Clinton had won, the risks would have remained at the existing level under Obama since there would have been no substantial change in foreign policy. Trump is a game changer, hence the need to reassess the risk.
Well no..... Your heading is "the risk of war"...... Hilary Clinton made it quite clear she was going all out with a no fly zone in Syria....
And on China/Hilary.... China and her weren't exactly buddies... In fact, with Hilary's record re' Libya etc, the "risks would have remained at the existing level under Obama since there would have been no substantial change in foreign policy" angle is at best optimistic;
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/china-isnt-exactly-backing-h...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/11/china-fears-hillary-clinton-focus-on-sout...
Would love to stay and chew the fat.... But a major storm front is pushing through.... Just hit Adelaide..... Off with the computer....... Over and out lol
After re-reading your initial comments BB I think there are a few other considerations that need to be considered which work in Trumps favor.
1. Kim Jong Un is batshit crazy, or at least he would have the world think as it works to his favor. No arguments he's a monster, but he also attended a swanky college in Sweden. If North Korea opens fire on the USA, China is their ally. China likes the DPRK because it maintains a bufferzone between their border and the USA (South Korea). So China either has to lose roughly 80% of its exports to Western Countries and wipe it's 1.2 trillion dollar loan to the USA and plunge it's country back into poverty by helping it's crazy neighbour or it can just watch and sternly complain like it does now.
So to re-iterate China CANNOT & WILL NOT ever engage in conflict because it will lose. The rest of the world has them by the balls economically & militarily, not the other way around. If the DPRK launches an attack it will be China that stops them. They can't have the nuclear fallout on their doorstep and they hold all Kim Jong Un's cards. Kim Jong Un knows this he just has to keep up the madman-running-the-country charade so the South Koreans remain too terrified to provoke him.
2. Now on the Russian saga. Have you considered that in the unusual chance that the Russians DID manipulate the election, that they did it in such a way as not to vote Trump in, but to ensure that BOTH candidates were pieces of shit? People hate Hillary's guts. There probably would have been civil war if that old bag had made the white house. But people hate Trump too. At least Trump gets to break down the rubbish and give them a chance to start again. He can sidestep the diplomatic bullshit and say what he thinks and claim ignorance, whilst sending a direct message. Hillary had decades of baggage to shed. Russia NEEDS a war right now. They can't import anything due to sanctions and they can't export either. They can only build stuff, so military gear it is, otherwise record unemployment & riots. Russia wants someone else to fight it's war though as it doesn't want to deal with the fallout. It just wants to occupy neighbouring ex soviet countries. Enter China being supported occasionally by Russia who is also selling them aircraft and carriers etc. But I repeat China will NEVER initiate a war because it will take them back 50 years.
Love it or hate it Trump has officially put China on notice and they'd be shitting themselves. Because they have a tin can navy and couldn't touch the US mainland but the USA has them more or less contained with bases on all sides. Their excellent diplomacy skills you referred to earlier are basically the same as Trumps off the cuff tweets. They get their tabloids like the Peoples Daily to make some ridiculous statement making them sound like spoilt toddlers demanding endless vengeance.
Have you considered what would happen if any conflict even happened? The USA has allies in The Phillipines (at least they did a few months ago), Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Britain, Canada, Israel, France, Mexico. China would be boxed in especially after losing control of their shiny new islands in the first strike.
China has the DPRK and a few friends but no formal allies. Even if they could hit satellites and launch facilities in the USA etc there are just too many in other countries. There is just simply no chance so they would never risk it. Russians know this too. Lets not also forget that there are 250 million Indonesians that lay claim to a few of those islands too and they would be pretty pissed, so don't be surprised if they quietly occupy a few while the bullets fly.
The risk of war is no different with Trump than it was with Obama however China should have been called on this issue a long time ago. Another thought, and completely unfounded, however it wouldn't surprise me if all the Russian links were done by the Obama organisation just to de-stabilise Trump. Doesn't matter either way but for all we know Putin is at home sipping vodka & smiling away at the massive free kicks Obama gave him with the Russian people by linking him to Donald Trump.
Soz for the essay guys, didn't think it was going to end up this long
Not at all Gaz, no apologies necessary. I'm really enjoying this thread from all contributors and thanks for keeping it in laymans terms for dummies like me.
Keep it up chaps.
Here's a little something for the panic mongers .
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/past-issues/issue-5/fear-an...
Gaz I think there is a greater risk of war with China under Trump but I would put my mortgage on Russia upping its aggro this year.
Gaz. the other part to the equation is what would happen if the US doesn't suitably protect the interests of its south china sea allies. is china possibly banking on these allies turning sides? is this a long term strategy?
Gents, the fear of war between China and US, is highly hypothetical given this day and age. To even suggest direct conflicts is pure fear mongering. We may see more of the likes of Syria, Ukraine but not direct. Why, well the game has changed significantly since WWII. Yes, we may see more economic and techno wars which will force the power, control processes to be different. Save your mortgage and expect interest rates to slowly increase, albeit slowly.
Well The New York Times agrees with me anyway.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/opinion/are-you-not-alarmed.html?acti...
A man wrote an article .
That was as alarmist as you are.
Holy shit !!! Every thing you say must be true ! Every fantastical tea leaf prediction is rock solid unavoidable truth etc etc
Ffs, blowin...... I'm on your side on this one........ But christ you make it hard...... smh.
Can't help it Sheepy.
The school teacher attitude in Blindboy brings it out in me.
Plus I'm out of action for the day after tweaking my back and so looking to generate a bit of light entertainment by prodding him till he sprouts more Chicken Little dribble .
Even though he put it out there it's probably still bad karma huh ?
What's smh mean ?
Along with most fair-minded people (this excludes the loonies who saturate these forums) , I wish The Donald all the best for his term of Presidency of the USA. Hopefully the rabid leftists don't pollute the inauguration ceremony with their usual violent and opportunistic behaviour(looting, burning police cars and bashing non-Democrats).
Ohhh.... The ween is yelling from the back bench Nice to see you back from buying units on the gold coast... or was it polo? A concert maybe?
Rightard..
from Keating....
""Tillerson's claim that China's control of access to the waters would be a threat to 'the entire global economy' is simply ludicrous. No country would be more badly affected than China if it moved to impede navigation. On the other hand, Australia's prosperity and the security of the world would be devastated by war."
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-threa...
You mean to say that Trump has managed to amass military might on Russia's borders before he's even inaugurated ?
He is demonic !
That or Blindboy believes the tail is wagging the dog.
Thought for the day
We're living in an age where limitations are forgotten/The outer edges move and dazzle us/But the core is something rotten/And we're standing on the precipice of prejudice and fear/We trust science just as long/As it tells us what we want to hear/We want our truths all fair and balanced as long as our notions lie within it/There's no sunlight in our asses/And our heads are stuck up in it.
Drive By Truckers
God I'm sick of this Trump stuff, it's everywhere i cant get away from it my social media feeds are full of it and he only just officially became president.
Thought for the day - Life's short...go surfing.
It's 106 miles to Bendalong, I've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of Doritos, it's six foot and I'm wearing sunglasses.
Enjoy Stu.
Im with Blowin and Indo ... I reckon its well time to switch the news off. Ahhh, isn't great when there is no phone coverage and you have just found a fun A frame with no one out.
The anti - blues brother.
Sorry to drag you back into the mire from hopefully good surf today but the point I think that needs to be made about Trump is there is nothing normal or predictable about him. All we have to go by his what he has said and done in the past and (now) in the present. Now I know there are many who are totally disillusioned by the current state of politics, me included, most politicians are beyond contempt, but is Trump really the answer? Do you honestly believe that?
I look to the character of the man and I see nothing admirable, I see no core values, no burning desire to do good for the average man. What I see is a hollow, crass, self serving individual who has spent his entire life only worried about what's in it him.
I hope I am wrong about Trump but I doubt it. Trump is like no other and character comparisons with Berlusconi are possibly accurate except Italy hasn't had the capacity to dive the world into war (or recession or depression) in over 2,000 years.
Rant over, have a good one.
Blowin writes "What's smh mean ?"
You honestly don't know????????? OMG...... Wtf!!!!!!...... PMSL......... SMH...... bahahahaha
Sydney morning herald?
I'd agree with your general description of trump smileyguy, but the one saving grace is, people like you describe, are not barred or incapable of loving their country, and this is about the only thing in his favour (and the fact the other one was totally unelectable as well), the fact that he may just be doing stuff for the right reasons rather than the purely selfish ones constantly peddled by the media.
Even if you don't agree with someone it doesn't mean everything they do is bad. Fuck even howard had a moment or two of brilliance....nah maybe not brilliance...more so tolerable respect.
I' m sorry but people against trump have just become totally irrational, fuelled up on a media fear campaign of mammoth proportions.
I thought fear campaigns were the domain of the right? Just like cosying up to bankers, oil, corrupt regimes, and unbridled neo liberalism I guess.
Anything trump does is seen through a media lens. A media lens that time and time again has proven to be inaccurate and totally out of touch.
The portrayal of trump is nothing short of hysterical (if we can still use that word?....better ask steve price). Hysterical public feeding of a hysterical media that still hasn't accepted they're half of the problem. As sheepdog points out, if hilary was voted in we'd probably have a no fly zone over syria by now. To paint trump as dangerous without even a passing sentence about hilary is the media doing exactly what has lead to this.
And blindboy referencing NYT on trump?
Dare I be bold enough to say...you need to read more widely...
Shaking my head - I googled it.
I just can't keep up with you young kids.
"And blindboy referencing NYT on trump?
Dare I be bold enough to say...you need to read more widely..."
Yeah, have to agree as soon as i saw that I knew exactly where it was going.
And as for the here and now, nothing advances the human cause more than burning and looting in protest. Even 10 year olds are getting in on the act using the same rationale as the other morons.
http://wtam.iheart.com/onair/mike-trivisonno-2339/lil-arsonist-10yearold...
I sorta agree, Fong..... And anyhow, people will move on to the next "4 hour outrage"....
Amazing how no one even backed my comment of condolences for those killed in Melbourne yesterday that I posted in "what's what"..... Hypotheticals are waaay more interesting.... However, if the lunatic had not been Greek, if he had've been "some other" nationality, I'd assume all hell would've broken loose.... Needless to say, many are dead.... Many are clinging to life..... Many will be broken for the rest of their lives.... But we move on...
Yes the rabble moves on, like the cartoon tasmanian devil spinning out of control... Onto the next outrage..... No proper "follow up" stories.... No studious analyzing of claims..... Just banal dissemination for clicks and profit...
For example, the "car bombing" in Canberra... Outside the christian lobby.... "Gay terrorism" was the headline...... The "bomber" walked to hospital...... Well, what's the story there? Is he still alive? Was he interviewed by police? Has he been charged? Was it a bomb?
Ahhhhh who cares..... that's so 2016.....
Hey, now I'll add this and shut up.
Trump promises massive tax cuts while simultaneously promising massive increases in government spending on such things as infrastructure. It is very illuminating if you goggle "economic growth rates required to fund Trump's tax cuts" .
For all those that think Trump might work out ok you might be surprised to hear that his stated tax cuts / spending plan could lead to America to have a $10 Trillion USD deficit. I saw yesterday that if his policies are implemented in full it will cause the US economy to grow by 3% but to balance the books given all the spending it will need to increase to a growth rate 9% = result massive deficit.
In the short term (say the next 4 years) Trump might get away with it but in the end the deficit will need to be paid for and how will his supporters in those rust belt states fare, how will schools and hospitals and roads be paid for?
Another GFC anyone?
In the short term Trump's infrastructure spend / tax cut bonanza maybe good for Australia given our reliance on mining ….. but in the longer term what will happen here if it starts going pear shaped in the US? Impacts on our exchange rate and increased borrowing costs for our banks (resulting in increases in our mortgage rates) to name just two issues that could see our economy in decline …….. all before US creditors say enough and pay up …. ooops a recession.
One last thing ….. Trump promises to always put America first. Again google the list of companies based on Delaware. 64% of Fortune 500 companies are safely nestled there and for one very good reason ….. its called tax avoidance.
Now always thought it an impossible task but do we all remember Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott and latterly Malcolm Turnbull tell us all the Australian government was getting tough on multi-nationals operating here and not paying tax. We can kiss all that good-bye now because there is no way Trump will agree to any international intergovernmental action on tax avoidance against the best interests of American companies.
That's it from me for on this topic ……. good luck to all, suggest you regularly review your exposure to sudden mortgage rate increases and collapses of the share market (that means your super).
Did someone say GFC?
Bring back the Aussie dollar to parity with the USD i need t stock up on dirt cheap wetsuits again.
From a story on the smh app today.
" The new US administration of President Donald Trump vowed on Monday that the United States would prevent China from taking over territory in international waters in the South China Sea, something Chinese media has said would require Washington to wage war."
Like any man of peace...that was the line wasn't it? Not a war monger like Hilary, wasn't that what you guys said?Anyway whatever it was, like any peacenik he's just put a freeze on all federal hiring. Except for the military.
Maybe it's just some of that job creation everyone keeps talking about. Hopefully, eh?
Part One.