What's what?

Thats right bb but the housing market has a gun to their head at the moment. Currently they seem to be holding their breath and treading softly. Cant really go up or down and the government doesnt seem to see it

Rates in housing market dependent on international market rates as Aussie banks borrow short off international debt markets and lend long into Aussie RE. RBA can sit on rates and lenders still pressured higher by market funding costs in NY

RBA follows (or leads?) 90 day SFE bill rate...

For a while I've been yearning for an economic history of the last 10 years, let's admit, it's been... different. Matt Barrie has obliged today, the first half a wrap up of global happenings during QE, a very good read with quite a bit of wtf:

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/11/freelancer-ceo-matt-barrie-goes...

When these imbalances unwind, at least we'll still have surfing.

I was just about to post that article johnno but you beat me to it! Great read i thought.

Meanwhile bill shortdick is tearing our parliament to bits over where pollies parents were born while our country goes down the shitter.

Great read , VJ.

Yeah it's a profound read, long, well researched. Basically if you wanted what Tyler Durden at ZH was doing for the US/EU economy in 2010 or so (how that site has fallen... some of his early bond articles were deeply impressive and taught as equally as they informed...), Barrie has written it for Australia right now.

I just can't understand why lawmakers would pass policy that did this to their nation? I mourn the loss of the car industry too - my metallic purple HJ column shift wagon was the pinnacle of Surf Beast.

Anyway, my favourite lol was the Bank of Japan (remember central banks are Chapter 5 of Mr Marx's book...) owning 75% of the Japanese ETF market - bring that one up in conversation if anyone is debating you that Capitalism actually exists and has failed... I must admit my eyebrows raised when the SNB started buying AAPL...

Anyone care to give odds on global Minsky Melt Up?

I dont think its an if just a when now johnno. I just wonder how it will actually look in oz

I recall reading some of TD's articles on Zero Hedge and, while they were heavy on info and analysis, and appeared to present cogent arguments for the layman, I cant recall any of his predictions coming to pass. Did I read the wrong ones, or was I perhaps too late?

I'm trying to gauge how much I should be concerned by the above article.

So who has sold up the family home and put it all in cash? A good piece of advice is that markets can always remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent betting against them.

Stu I might suggest that site was (is?) more of a resource to document what happens, rather than predictions ending up true or no. Just as JK Galbraith did for 1929. There's certainly a bit of snark in the headings ("Monetary Bukake" for the BOJ when they started to print the day after the Fed halted was a giggle), probably best part of a variety of sources. This stuff will continue until the day it doesn't. One of the most obvious unrealised truths of my adult life.

BB as for the family home, there was one fellow I heard of in Perth who sold up in 2007 and put the lot in silver, could have been a very good (ballsy) trade if he timed exit well - what many did not realise was the protection of the housing market by gov when tshtf in 2008. Family homes are for living in, whether they are $17,000 or $1,700,000 and then they halve...

I have some suspicion of what's going to happen, but it's best to skip John Law and go straight to the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises:

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Good luck to you all in finding lifeboats. Back to surf talk for me now.

Cheers VJ. I was never an ardent reader but tuned in every now and again and probably focussed on the aspects I was interested in: theory (with an objective to predict) as opposed to an explanation of events.

All good Stu. Theory with an objective to predict... there was a time when advance-decline lines and relative strength divergence could be seen (a long way out) as harbingers of change, I kind of hope they still will.

Wow VJ, just read the article. All the data, stats and info, it's hard to deny that most Australians are leveraged well above their heads and when it corrects, shit's gonna get heavy.

Cruising the highway between jobs in country sa today and the only radio channel i could get was streaming an interview with the qld leader of one nation. He sounded scarily coherent!

Is this the case and does anyone think theyll be players after the election tomorrow?

I said same thing re. their leader last week gaz1799

Apparently he's been stolen from the libs, so he's an experienced politician. Appearing competent is so unique to one nation he does catch your ear.

Even weirder, is it taking one nation to stand up to coal mining across queensland which hanson did tonight on the news, criticising mining the galilea basin; and lending bucks for an adani railway. Whilst the libs and labor...

One nation the great green hope...weird times...

Interesting watching open warfare on turnball too. All the freaks on sky news bagging him way better and harder than labor have been able to manage for some reason

No wonder society is such a hotbed at the moment with such divisions even within parties. Liberals, uk labor and tories, us democrats and republicans. All tearing themselves apart.

Oz labor are somehow the most united, still the most boring and uninspiring, but appearing reasonably united. Tough times sorted them out. Pity about the leader they went with

Well the Battler Bus has crash again and as predicted the votes they did get were bleed from LNP supporters from FNQ. Swings to Labor and the Greens in SE Qld.

Modelling : Such a useful , accurate tool.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/263A991BDF9CB127CA2568A9001362A3?OpenDocument

Wait , let me guess - Models have improved out of sight since then and they're dead on correct from here on in . Right ?

Gives us something ( entirely fictional ) to base our discussions on in the meantime , I guess.

So by the governments own figures we can halt all migration until 2051, as we overshot the mark a little and blew the budget early.

Suddenly 'fuck off we're full' doesn't seem so mean.

The battler bus sure did crash, but not through lack of votes.

She got a pretty significant percentage

We're just lucky they are still totally incompetent

One Nation will only ever be the party of the disgruntled LNP voters of FNQ. Come next federal election they may do well in the Senate (maybe another senator) given the way the federal voting system works for the upper house. Yesterday's ON vote shows the decade long marriage of the Liberals and Nationals in Qld has been a complete failure. Joining a (so-called) socially progressive centre right party (Liberals) with the reactionary conservative retards aka the Nationals was always going to fail and if they now divorce current ON voters will go back way back to the 1950s and vote Nationals where they belong. No Brexit or Agent Orange like political movement here.

I've said it here before, and I'll say it again. Hanson and her basket case supporters are NOT the silent majority... They are the LOUDEST MINORITY. They polled 13.5% in their "supposed" stronghold, Qld. An utter embarrassment for the vile thing she is. Lost their state leader, and will probably not win one seat.
This loudest minority is already whining, calling the election rigged. And I saw on ABC yesterday that this 13.5% out commented every other party on Facebook leading up to the election. Don't quote me, but I think their social media comments were more than Labor, LNP and greens combined.
I think the dildo comments broke their back.... Here they are lying about kids being shown by teachers how to wear a strap on, when one of their candidates manages a sex shop.
Ya couldn't make this shit up if ya tried lol

Hanson always blabbers on about listening to the people, well the tribe has spoken and they told her to fuck off.

no double up required

Calm down floyddog, no ones calling 'silent majority' or major 'movement'.

And, to be honest the 13.5 panned out much lower than I expected. They had it at over 20% last night when I was watching it.

But even at 13.5% its well above the greens at a measly 9%.

I just find it quite interesting that a couple of years ago one nation was literally nowhere to be seen, and the greens seemed to have a real momentum. A building momentum that made them look like being a real third force in oz politics, with potential to replace the democrats of old.

Now a few years on, the greens are going backwards.....fast..

And one nation, despite being incompetent, unpalateable, embarassing, and totally all over the shop, are doing......well.....er.....something....

not quite sure what it is (neither are they). But they aren't going anywhere.

Imagine how many votes a party worth voting for would receive.

If such a thing existed , of course.

"But they aren't going anywhere" ... agreed so long as they are careful with selecting their candidates (very big ask e.g. Malcolm Roberts) and stick to FNQ they might survive the next 2-3 federal elections in the senate, that's it. ON voters will desert ship as soon as the Nationals start representing them like they used to and stop pussy footing around with those pinko lefties in the Liberal Party. This story is all about how the politics of the right is unravelling and becoming fragmented and how the supporters of the right yearn for the good ole days.

Shitpan..... The name is sheepdog.
Now onto business.

"no ones calling 'silent majority' or major 'movement'."
Bullshit... Hanson herself says she represents the silent majority. Just google it.

"But even at 13.5% its well above the greens at a measly 9%"
WOOOOOWWWW!!!!!!!!!!! One bunch of losers got 4.5% more than another bunch of losers!!!!

"not quite sure what it is (neither are they). But they aren't going anywhere."

On that you're right.... They sure aren't going anywhere, unlike Qld Labor, who are going into government.

Getting a bit narky there sheepdog, relax, it appears your team won...enjoy....

Hanson may well say that about the much hyped mystical silent majority . I just meant that's not what I'm saying.

I think those percentages are significant. If I was an over educated, loyal yet under experienced green minion, putting in the hard yards, for a decade or so, seeing steady growth and relevance grow for a brief period, especially under di natalie, thinking the future is ours, hard work is paying off etc etc. and then one nation storms in, with a troupe of barely educated, barely personable odd balls, and gains a convincing 50% more votes in a two year whirlwind period, I'd be thinking.....what the fuck is going on?

fwiw, I think labor got in due to lack of decent opposition rather than any actual position or achievement. As it seems Palaszczuk isn't big on either.

Q land politics looks a lot like SA. The liberal opposition in both states are so abysmal people would have to be really desperate and pissed to vote them in.

Don't take it all so personal sheepdog. Its not your fault one nation is Q land's baby.

The dildo revelation really was quite hilarious

How long before people accept the fact that working visas and immigration are underpinning wage stagnation and accelerating the casualisation of our workforce ?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/fresh-meat-how-major-...

Strange how it's not THE political hot topic as it concerns 90 percent of the nation .

Even those who are self employed must compete against cut rate labour hire companies and companies that refuse to pay the minimum wage.

Maybe it's not THE hot topic because it was the two major parties that are pushing the barrow of jobs for foreigners before jobs for Australians.

Blowin writes "How long before people accept the fact that working visas and immigration are underpinning wage stagnation and accelerating the casualisation of our workforce ?"

Probably never, because your statement of "fact" is utter bullshit, maybe?

here's a country you use quite often as an example re' immigration. Note the wage stagnation to use your words;

https://www.ft.com/content/0eaf2672-3eb9-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2

The whole world is being squeezed by China.
THAT'S the "facts". Nothing to do with work visas, Japan's situation proves it.
I could post other countries wage stagnation. But you're a big boy. You can research it.

I think blowins point has some merit
NZ is currently enticing 20,000 chippies from the UK. I know Foreman chippies on $28 p hour
Cheap labour via working visas is fucking over A lot of NZ workers
Not to mention the youth with no apprenticeships

Of course it does.

Why else do you think they came up with the visa work schemes ?

Maybe the government did it because they're such big hearted individuals that wanted to share Australia's wealth globally , eh Sheepdog ?

PS Couldn't access your link , Sheepy .

Paywall.

Got anything else ?

Go tell that to the people of Tamworth.

When you're done there you can tell it to the people in the town not far from me that barely see the dozens of Koreans working the blueberry farm and living in dongas onsite whilst unemployment is through the roof amongst the locals.

After that you can make your way around the country and inform the underpaid or unemployed locals that what they are experiencing is not true or even actually happening because of .....well, just look at Japan.

Such a parallel.....not.

What part of " Hundreds of migrant workers " didn't you understand , Sheepy ?

i would say wage stagnation is mostly structurally driven. a slow/weak/changing economy including the mining sector slowdown, and low inflation rates in most countries since GFC. but low demand for aussie workers surely plays a part in some industries. ive said before, go build a house with a big builder and watch who turns up, plenty of trades using workers with zero english skills. im sure they are being paid bottom dollar.

wage stagnation: automation in the workplace also plays a significant role.

locally: if I buy a pizza, coffee, go to the thai or chinese restaurant, or the local pub or visit the the bush walking equipment shop the staff/cooks are all foreign workers. Every shopping centre has at least 2 massage shops staffed with foreigners. Old mate is at uni and in some of his lectures he is the only skippy all others from SE Asia and India (full fee study here / citizenship offered). Old mates on the tools all have to compete against foreign workers.

..... and then there are the Free Trade Agreements and the foreign worker provisions.

Ohhhh perlease..... Any excuse to wield out the xenophobia.... I just showed you and insider the stagnant wage growth in japan, a country with NO immigrant workers.
Yet even facts in front of your eyes wont convince you.

Last time I checked, it wasn't those damn brown skins that voted to cut weekend penalty rates. It was pauline, backing the coalition.
So peoples take home pay shrinks thanks to Pauline, but Pauline and her 13.5% dimwits line up and blame those bloody immigrants bahahahahaha.
Ya can't make this shit up if you tried.

The rich get richer
The working poor get flogged so they can

Oh, that's what's happening in Tamworth is it , Sheepy ?

So the entire SMH article was a fabrication and there's not hundreds of immigrants taking local jobs and working for below minimum wage ?

...the lowest paid workers are the most vulnerable to be replaced.

Hopefully one day it will get through your thick skull blowin.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/why-wages-aren-t-growing

Did you even read your own link ?

"the problem has been caused by the globalization of the labor force, which pits workers in one country in more direct competition with workers in other countries, often with large differences in wage levels."

This syndrome is compounded when the government brings the cheaper Work force from overseas to Australia rather than sending the work to them.

Such as in Tamworth. The very example put forward that you are so studiously ignoring.

No blowin... You have conflated once again...
"which pits workers in one country in more direct competition with workers in other countries, often with large differences in wage levels."

In ONE country...
in OTHER countries.

Even your own copy and paste backs up my original point;

"The whole world is being squeezed by China."

Hence Hanson and co voting down penalty rates so we can compete with slave labour rates.

And here's another thing Blowin (I'll play hypothetical and say what you say - it's the immigrants and 457s causing stagnating wages)
it still take an AUSSIE BOSS to greedily not give an Aussie a job, to give the unskilled migrant the cash in hand job. It still takes AUSSIE pollies to allow this to happen...
So by all means yell at the 457 worker.... Wont do a damn thing when penny pinching tight arse builders driving around in new trucks and bragging at the rsl on friday knock off decide to sell their own country out.

Why would I yell at a 457 worker ?

I've worked alongside literally thousands of them. Of course they'd displaced thousands of Australians out of the jobs they were working. That's the thing mate . You can yell and type furiously , post link after link . I've seen Australians lose their opportunities to visa workers and I've seen visa workers undercut the wages of Australians with my own eyes many , many , many times.

That is the irrefutable truth of the matter .

Don't let the fuckers in to start with is my point.

Discussion over.

@sheepdog, so our PM now is calling a royal commission into banks, delayed and reluctantly.

PM and a LNP government in name only ..... and we still have 18 months to the next scheduled election.

doubt if we last that long thou

"Pauline Hanson fails to declare $4500 Great Barrier Reef snorkelling cruise"

Hanson supporters would be screaming their lungs out if this was Labor or Libs;

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hanson-fai...

What are you on about , Sheepy ?

I voted for one Nation and I still reckon the red headed moron should sort this shit out.

Politicians, mate , the fuckers are so crooked I'm betting the furniture in parliament is bolted to the floor to stop the bastards from filching it.

So you are cool with people who spout as much crap as Onan the Vulgarian then?
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2017/12/02/gadfly-onan-the-vulgarian...