What's what?

GS you are probably right, and Stu and Blowin that was a good discourse back and forth.

Can anyone a bit older tell me about Rex Connor? I came across a reference to him in one of the MB threads. If I guess right, he combined economic nationalism with working class ALP politics. Can anyone better shed light on him?

Stu:
"I'm yet to hear anyone, public or political, mount a comprehensive argument about the structural issues wrought by reducing immigration."

I'll give it a go. More a vignette than an argument. And not financial advice by any means, more me waxing lyrical.

Immigration restricted, vastly lower than current levels.
Immigration agents first to go bust.
Immediate shortage of workers for entry job levels - wages rise.
Massage parlours shut in droves, rental occupancy levels plummet (ever noticed the main highway of Gold Coast is all massage/tattoo/dog grooming shops, hardly anything else? The guy who opened the tattoo removal business is a genius...)
Recession in commercial property
Housing is already falling, but takes a further hit. I mean, it's here anyway already.
GDP lessens
Unemployment in construction sector (forward indicators already contracting)
Mafia syndicates that own many city properties and fill them 10 to a dwelling no longer have a supply of inbound people. Do they sell up?
Universities take a massive hit to income earned. VC wages fall from the 1Mn mark. More local kids actually get into Australian Uni courses.
Tax intake takes a hit, but so much of the economic activity is black anyway (reference: the CBA laundering) and being sent offshore without being taxed, that this is a net positive for the country.
Inner city loadings probably don't decrease, but they don't increase either. City hospital wait times probably similar, but no need for that new hospital now rather than in 10 years.
Go Go Harvey sales demand craters: retail gets smashed.
Those that borrowed and are negative equity are in strife. Happening already.
Driving standards improve as greater % of kids who have their mandatory 120 hours all signed off and logged, and lessening % of drivers who drove to lesser requirements overseas and then were loosed on the country on an international licence.
Boomers still get the health care they have. This is kept and seems immune to other falls, but the pressure on the medical system is offset by less growth in people using it.
Roadworks keep on keeping on. They never stop. Another port gets sold to keep the roadworks going more. Although that bit is tongue-in-cheek, govt stimulus probably increases as a % of the economy in the face of falling incomes. They fire the Keynesian cannon...
Any QE or lowering rate that is done to stave off activity falling away due to less immigration, will be a big negative pressure for the AUD. May well happen anyway in our near future. So the nation will feel poverty in the exchange rate, and that's how we will adjust. Better hope we borrowed in AUD! (eg, Gov bonds issued here)
So if AUD goes to sub 50cUS, all of a sudden, we are cheap - international tourism goes nuts and adventure guides are worked off their feet. And paid well in local terms.
Guess what? Our manufacturing gets more competitive. Australian cars find new markets to be sold in (hang on, we lost that industry - just remember, last time AUD was 50cUSD Holden birthed the Commodore based Monaro coupe, AWD wagons, AWD utes amongst other things - all exciting and held in good regard internationally in performance for $ terms. We can build things, we are creative when our pricing is competitive and we actually get let into export markets)
Young professionals head offshore, but that has always happened. They earn more overseas, set themselves up, and come home to raise kids by the beach in Sydney.
Great demand for quality Australian non-polluted agriculture overseas increased by its more competitive price. Agriculture goes nuts.
Imports get more expensive, and we buy less of them. Safer baby formula. Current account adjusts through this.
And indebted Australia still gets its capital from offshore, paying the going rate (higher rate) and lending far less into housing. Housing adjusts and as wages rise for young locals, the income:house price ratio falls closer to the historical average, reverts to mean.
Dockers win the flag.

That's quite a vignette you've waxed together there vj.

I've noticed a common recurring theme on these forums to keeping coming back to immigration and the economy, and I reckon you would be hard pressed to find anyone on here who doesn't support reducing it in some way shape or form. How many and where from (sector wise) become the burning questions.

As usual when I read a comment on here I find myself rapidly off to google land to try and understand what some people are actually talking about. The educational opportunities of the Swellnet forums knows no bounds!

Regarding the issue of immigration levels and the impact on our economy (may have already been posted) I did find a really good analysis written mid 2017 that finishes with,

"Most of our economic growth forecasts have been based on population growth of around 400,000 a year; almost a new city.

With the mines now running at peak capacity, resource prices in decline and the east coast housing boom on its final doomed run, a pull back on immigration — the secret weapon in our economic miracle — will leave our leaders with nowhere to hide.

To further complicate matters, if productivity is to be lifted, a major infrastructure spend is required; the money that should have been spent all along to cope with the immigration intake.

Perhaps they will be forced to confront serious fiscal issues if they truly want to bring the budget deficit back under control instead of simply relying on endless numbers of new arrivals to inflate the economy and the tax base.

Maybe they will get serious about a resources rent tax, rather than idly standing by and watching the nation's riches hauled off for little return.

Tax cuts for foreign corporations may take a back seat to enforcing the law on company tax. And they might even question whether we can afford the enormous tax breaks on superannuation and property investment for the wealthy.

Maybe. But it will probably take a recession to do it."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-24/verrender-immigration-and-the-eco...

Interestingly, if you google search "Is Australia heading for recession' you get 3 100 000 results.

Nicely done.

Thanks for that.

Haha Blowin, thanks for that but I know you were talking to vj. ;)

Liked your post too, WOTL.

Appreciate your input.

.

Given the last Australian recession was in 1991, it is probably not surprising that some seem to view the consequences of a recession through rose coloured glasses. Falling house prices, increased international competitiveness and so on. The reality is that the consequences of recessions are severe and unequally weighted. High interest rates favour those who already have money and the fall in housing prices, similarly provides them with an investment opportunity. Nor is unemployment evenly spread. In this age of casual and insecure jobs it would most likely result in enormous pressure on those in areas like retail and hospitality where wages are already low. Increasing unemployment also puts downward pressure on welfare payments so the already poor get even poorer. It is sad that some people seem to see these issues as ideological or political, that we should be willing to suffer a recession in the cause of some grand future vision, incorporating abstract concepts like purity and national identity. Of course, those proposing these cleansing rituals are rarely those most likely to suffer the consequences, still it is wise to be careful about what you wish for.

Does it have to be all or nothing? Ought there be a role for government to carefully adjust the economic levers to cushion the fall or to dampen the rise? Neo-Liberalism would dictate that government should minimise its influence in the economy yet the economic powerhouses are those where government plays an actively role in the market/economy. This myth of small government in the economy needs to be smashed .... it's just another neo-liberal lie. Governments need to govern and they should start by small incremental (but cumulative) changes e.g. lowering migration rates.

Blowin's link (and the comment,) Sypans vid and the discussion, you guys are on fire.

" government to carefully adjust the economic levers to cushion the fall "

Fact is most the time (99'9%) Governments/Institutions (central banks) act behind the curve one of the few times of acting in front of the curve was Ken Henry convincing Rudd/Swan go early, go hard and go households hence Oz didn't experience a hard GFC.

Note at the time retail had the largest workforce and didn't shed significant numbers, mining dumped 15% of workers straight of the bat if that was retail Australia would have been toast.

Plan for Kempsey Shire to seal the road to Point Plomer - obviously the plan's been around for a while but it sounds like things are getting serious.

https://www.echo.net.au/2019/01/wants-tarred-crescent-head-fights-develo...

I’m with the community. Leave it untarred. Yorkes has a totally different feel now with the bitumen through the National Park. Takes away some of the magic. 

Absolutely takes away the magic. Takes away that sense of rawness and discovery.

Yeah Craig. I miss those days of the car getting rattled to bits and the head on crashes on the Pondie road.

You'd actually prefer all surf access roads were tarred?

I wish all beaches were bituminised. I’m so over getting sand in my car . Then we can start on putting a massive shade cloth over the nation because the sun is too glary and desalinating the oceans cause they taste funny and smell weird.

@ Craig.No mate, I didn't say that. But i do remember thinking "how good is this?" when I first drove on the tar to Daly Heads from Marion Bay. And with the amount of vehicles using the Pondie road these days I'm sure its a lot safer now. Some friends were in a head on there back in the day and a pretty woman I knew got her face all cut up, damaged her psyche too.

The roads don’t need fixing , the fuckwits driving poorly on them need to sort their shit out. This country is enough of a nanny state already without opening up the entirety of the coast under the guise of convenience and then ruining it with more development.

I’ve come close to a head on most days since the holidays started on dirt roads due to people thinking they’re driving on a rally course because the tar has ended. But it’s the P platers anywhere who are the real danger.

GS post above spot on. Governments are elected , given resources and access to advisers and paid to govern. Problem is that the advice they get is often ignored if it doesn't suit their political agenda or dare I say "mates'.

Yep leave the roads untarred, rutty and unfriendly. It keeps most people at bay and to the bitumen.

Craig posted a photo of himself actually employing his legs to walk into a spot. He doesn’t just talk the talk , he ....uhh, yeah. You know what I mean.

Tar = Exponential increase in crowds and the start of ruinous development.

I'm not advocating tarring of all access rods to the coast. All i'm saying is that it has been a pleasure for me to drive on some roads that have previously been "untarred,rutty and unfriendly". maybe I'm just selfish. Did you guys ever drive the South Coast Highway on KI in the 80's or early 90's, adventurous for sure but a fukn nightmare nonetheless. I know some locals there who would love some more bitumen and others who wouldn't.

I’m of the opposite opinion.

Last year I spent nearly 5 months at a location where you had to drive 80 kms of unpaved roads every time I wanted to buy anything and I was spewing that the road had been upgraded from the sand drift and pot holed limestone karst it had been previously.

All grading a road does is allow access to the people who don’t want to visit that badly that they’d suck up they’re discomfort for a little while . Why should they be pandered to ?

Bitumising is next level for the entitled fuckers who have zero regard for a location.

The KSC is only paving to lime burners anyway. This has everything to do with unlocking development potential and greed as opposed to safety or comfort.

Don't worry Blowin, any development there will be ecotourism I'm sure ;)

Catchy tune of the week:

c'est le message et elle est très jolie

very catchy tune

interesting characterisations too

I don't who or what this facebook page is, a bit all over the shop, but it certainly draws some interesting yellow vest characterisations too.

Intersting assumptions about alliances and elections as well...really interesting assumptions!

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1848164471960304&id=83590333...

Shit really is all over the shop

Who are the owners of the yellow vest?

While the new laws will not be enacted for at least 12 months and only then if the LNP are re-elected (yeah fat chance) Morrison today announced new laws he plans to introduce will it illegal for local government to hold Australia Day and/or citizenship ceremonies on any other day. The opening salvo has been served in the on-going cultural wars over Strayla Day .... Aussie Aussie Aussie OI Oi Oi

Might go down well north of Rockhampton Shouter but not down here in Vicco where your party is about to have its arse whipped.

Straight from an Aussie. Oi etc etc

https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/if-america-stopped-destroying-the-wor...

factotum hammers it home...

"If U.S. stopped destroying the World the Bad Guys might win."

Here's another verse from the same Bible ( Paradox Edition ).

"U.S. electoral interference is fair enough...
...Russia's electoral interference is out of order."

If the US wasn’t doing it , someone else would be. At least we’re on the better side of the equation with the status quo.

Interesting stuff factotum. The idea that any nation can act as a global policeman is disproved by history. Even with the, rarely found, best intentions, they fuck it up by not having a deep enough understanding of local cultures. The idea that Australia needs to be allied to the US is fear based bullshit. Our own defence force is adequate to our needs particularly since we have strong relationships with all the regional powers. The fearmongers point to China as a threat probably out of little more than racism. The greatest threat to Australian security in recent years has been terrorist activity generated directly by our association with the US led invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Chinese threat is racism !

Is there nothing you can’t incorrectly attribute to racism ?

even with all the doomed American neo-con military adventurism I still feel more comfortable having a nominal democracy as the biggest bully in the schoolyard as compared to an outright authoritarian regime.

Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but things like the rule of law and free speech seem a whole lot better than what the Chinese are offering.

............ Even when the bully makes your country a prime nuclear target by locating critical infrastructure there? Whatever security the US. may once have provided it is a total illusion under Trump. Ask the Kurds what a US alliance is worth!

........ what Chinese threat? They are our major trading partner and have long and deep cultural connections to Australia. Chinese tourism is rapidly increasing and no, they are not a democracy but they have a stable government whose policies have lifted millions of people out of poverty.

Oh , so it’s all good because of money then ?

I never realised that was the major consideration in any alliance, the fact that they’d bought millions of acres of our home without ever letting a single Australian own a single square millimetre of their land telling you just how deep and long our” cultural connection “ is with them.

Then when you think about China’s attempts to curry favour with our pacific neighbors with the intent of encircling us with military might , your call of a purely self defence stance sounds a bit hollow.

Oh , but I forgot about the tourism from China which , wherever possible, is zero dollar tourism where the Chinese own every vertical component of the value chain : Chinese owned airlines, Chinese owned tour buses , Chinese owned accommodation etc etc

Stable government !

You realise that the dictator of China just made himself perpetual ruler , don’t you ?

And that the small , inbred club who rules the joint at his behest must do everything within their power to keep the countries economic growth rate above 6 percent- the point below which the Chinese ruling class are self proclaimedly fearful of the population rebelling en mass .

So stable.

Keen to hear about the Chinese plan to assume part of our country as a mini province of China so they could mine it unimpeded by pesky Australian input , benefit or intervention ?

Such good friends of ours !!

I get the impression that you admire the Chinese style of politics where the “ experts “ make uncontested decisions and the plebs bow their heads in gratitude.

And get ranked on their “ social benefit “.

Given the low standard of living current partnerships have delivered to our Pacific neighbours, why wouldn't they be looking elsewhere? Same applies to large parts of Africa. Is China really that much more controlling than their current allies who talk the talk of fairness then rip them off blind? Encircling us with military might? Sorry mate your paranoia is showing. How about, expect to be able to establish a pattern of bases similar to their major rival? Particularly since that rival is in the midst of a period of political uncertainty with a certified loon as their President. Not to mention that their major trade routes are surrounded by bases of that unstable rival. I mean do you expect them to play dumb to ease your paranoia. Well that ain't going to happen. Wake up mate the world has changed and our once great and good US ally is now an unreliable screw up.

Everything you fear about the US future is already a reality in China , yet you can’t get China deep enough into your anus.

Remember how much you wrung your hands over Trump aspiring to dictatorship ?

Yet in China you call that exact circumstance stable government !

Just admit it , BB .

You’re a hard slurping Sinophile.

I would not like to live under the Chinese system, but as the possibility of that happening is approximately zero, I have no interest in telling them how to do things, particularly given their achievements in eliminating poverty ........ ever thought that, having spectacularly lifted their own standard of living, they might be well placed to achieve similar things elsewhere? No, probably not, too stuck in the old yellow peril style of thinking!

The Chinese let themselves be overrun with poverty .....and you’re kissing their rings because US capitalism pulled them out of it ?

Bizarre.

A lot of your argument hinges on the erroneous assumption that China has no intention of intervening in the political processes of other nations even though they are already actively doing exactly that .

Weird.

You’re not a Chinese bot/ troll are you BB ?

You think that the Chinese technique of debt trapping sovereign nations through coercing corrupt leaders into signing their countries up for unneeded and unaffordable infrastructure projects is China being nice ?

Too bad that these projects are actually Trojan horses used to inject a larger Chinese diaspora into these countries. Virtually the entire workforce’s of these foreign projects are Chinese.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/08/27/chinas...

https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/09/06/the-perils-of-chinas-debt-trap...

...... and what has the US been doing? And the UK before them? Hasn't that been a success? I might be wrong but since existing policies have catastrophically failed large parts of the developed world I can't see a problem with another major power getting involved. They could hardly be worse and, given their success at home, they might turn out to be much more successful. There are no perfect worlds Blowin. What would you rather have an illusion of democracy and poverty or straight out authoritarianism and a decent standard of living. Of course, idealists have trouble with those kind of choices.

You’re off your head , mate.

Yes , it has been a success. The US lifted China out of poverty, it had fuck all to do with oppressive Chinese dictatorships. It was US money !

The English and the US were the ones who lifted the entire globe out of poverty and now you’re whinging about it.

Australia is a paradise. You think Chinese rule is going to get a better result than selling your unit next to the beach and retiring down the coast where you cant type in a Chinese variant on “ God fuck Amerika “ into your computer without repercussions ?

But , but ....England , the USA......Chinese is everything that I despise. You can have your happy authoritarianism.....ask the Urhigirs how that’s worked out.

At least the countries currently dealing with China appear to have a choice.

Countries like El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Chile, Brazil, blah blah blah had no choice when dealing with the U.S./CIA.

When/if China begins to flex it's muscles to this extent I'll be more concerned.

Once again Blowin and BB, really good intelligent tete a tete from opposing perspectives. Strange times in a troubled world of rapid change. As the Buddha stated, the future is impenetrable, but we can sure as shit get into the dialectic.

Are you seriously suggesting that the Chinese leadership have not been responsible for their economic growth? That is beyond absurd.

The extremes of US capitalism led to the utilisation of China as a dirt cheap manufacturing hub in order to maximise profit margins , which was then immediately followed by the rest of the world’s manufacturing base .

If not for this relocation of capital into China , the Chinese would still be rice farmers.

https://www.quora.com/How-is-it-all-of-a-sudden-that-the-Chinese-became-...

Thank the US for saving China.....again.

Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion from the link Blowin. Reality is that the US has never accounted for the majority of China's exports, I think it maxed at about 25%, so they would have done pretty well anyway without the US.