South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 6th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun blend of S-S/SE swells this weekend with offshore winds most of the day (may tend to NW devil winds and light N-NE breezes in the a’noon)
• Easing surf Mon
• Next week now looks active as low moves out into Tasman Tues
• Small surf Tues- late kick in S swell a minor possibility on MNC
• Solid S swell Wed with fresh SW winds
• Better quality S-S/SE swell Thurs favouring NENSW for size with offshore winds
• Slow easing in size from Fri into the weekend
• Low confidence medium term due to competing model guidance- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Large and raggedy S swells yesterday offered up sizey 4-6ft surf across S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD under fresh S/SW-S winds with smaller, cleaner options at more sheltered spots. Conditions have improved across the board today with offshore W’ly tending light SE winds and S-S/SE swells to 3-5ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD offering up wide array of fun waves.

Still some size across NENSW from the S-S/SE

This weekend (June 7-8)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure currently up over NENSW vacates the stage, leaving the SE of the continent to be swept by gusty synoptic W’ly winds which will veer NW-W/NW at times as a complex trough, front and low system approach from the west. 

So, winds basically offshore all weekend with some devil wind tendencies depending on beach orientation. Anything south facing should hold up well.

Surf-wise, we’ll see S swell trains hold in the 3-4ft range tomorrow, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, easing through the day. Longer period S/SE swell from the fetch under the South Island offers up better quality surf to similar size on Sun - 3-4ft in NENSW, with 3ft sets in SEQLD.

Next week (Jun 9 onwards)

The story of next week is still a stalled low in the Tasman- although swell potential gets a major upgrade as the low gets moving Tues and gets into a swell generating position. By Monday morning the low should be stalled just south-east of Cape Howe on the NSW/Vic border, driving W-W/NW winds across NSW and up into the sub-tropics and aiming strong winds to gales at Tasmania from its southern flank.

Easing swells under stiff offshores for Mon with a few small leftovers from the S/SE to 2-3ft, dropping back through the day. 

From Tues we should now see the low move NE with W’ly winds increasing to strong, possibly low end gale force and then shifting W/SW or even SW as winds on the western flank of the low ramp up along the southern coast of NSW.

Depending on the timing of this movement we may see a late kick in new S swell across Southern NSW up to the Hunter curve from the fetch of proximate SW winds along the coast. There’s a minor chance we may see some of that across the MNC late in the day. 

Wed looks a more certain bet as the low moves eastwards and swell generating winds along the west and SW flank do their work. Fresh W winds shift W/SW through SW and then tend S/SW during the day with a mix of S swell trains in the 4-5ft range across NENSW (bigger at S facing riverbars) and grading smaller 1-2ft building to 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. 

By Thurs surf quality and size will be on the improve as better quality S-S/SE swell fills in from a more favourably angled fetch operant as the low moves eastwards. Pressure gradients ease along the coast with morning W-SW breezes shifting to light SW-S winds during the day. Size in the 6ft+ range across NENSW, 3-4ft across SEQLD S exposed breaks should offer plenty of options as winds ease. 

Surf should slowly tail off through the end of next week and into the weekend as the low hangs in the eastern Tasman (see below) , aiming up a slowly, weakening fetch of S/SE-SE winds back at the east coast. We’ll see how models look Mon but at this stage we should still see some 4ft surf Fri, tailing off to 2-3ft into the weekend with offshore winds as high pressure drifts across the island continent.

Lots of model divergence medium/long term with GFS suggesting another trough/moist infeed located off the NENSW/SEQLD region (hopefully not!) while EC suggests a more wintery pattern with settled high pressure and fronts to the south.

We’ll see how all that is shaping up on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!