Western Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 3rd)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Sunday morning, Monday morning in the South West, Tuesday morning in the South West across the magnets, Wednesday morning in the South West

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large, close-range SW swell building today (peaking late), easing tomorrow
• Large, inconsistent W/SW groundswell building later today, more so tomorrow, peaking into the PM
• Moderate S/SE-SE tending strong S/SW winds Sat (SE to the north in the AM)
• Reinforcing, large SW groundswell Sun, easing into Mon
• Moderate to fresh S/SE winds Sun ahead of sea breezes
• Easing swell Mon and Tue with light-mod S/SE winds ahead of sea breezes Mon, E/SE to the north
• Moderate sized, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell building late Tue, peaking Wed AM
• E/SE-SE winds Tue AM, best Wed with E-E/NE winds ahead of weak sea breezes

Recap

A tiny northerly windswell kicked up through the day yesterday but not to any real surfable size, fading into today with a shift in the winds.

The South West started tiny this morning but we’ve seen a rapid increase in size linked to a very intense low that formed off our region yesterday.

More on this below.

Swell J-curve in the South West this morning

This weekend and next week (Apr 4 - 10)

The tight, strong low that’s expected to generate a large pulse of SW swell this afternoon has come in quite impressive on the satellite imagery, with storm-force barbs spinning around the core of the system.

This will likely see the swell pulse to a larger 8-10ft across the South West this afternoon but with onshore winds, 3ft across Mandurah later and 2ft+ in Perth.

The swell will ease into tomorrow morning, but our less consistent, large, long-period W/SW groundswell is due to fill in, generated by a strong frontal progression firing up under South Africa last weekend, pushing east this week.

We’re probably seeing 6-8ft surf tomorrow morning in the South West, pulsing back to 10ft through the afternoon with 2-3ft waves all day across Mandurah, 2ft+ in Perth.

Local winds look to improve, tending S/SE-SE through the morning across the South West ahead of strong sea breezes, E/SE-SE to the north in the morning.

Easing surf is due on Sunday back from 6-8ft across the South West and 2ft+ across Mandurah, 2ft in Perth, though this trend will be slowed by a reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell arriving through the day.

This has been generated by a strong low firing up to the east of Heard Island region yesterday, and should maintain 6-8ft sets across the South West into the afternoon before easing Monday, further Tuesday.

Looking at the local winds Sunday and a moderate to fresh S/SE-SE breeze is due in the South West during the morning, moderate to the north, with weaker S/SE winds Monday morning, E/SE to the north.

Winds should finally tend more E/SE into Tuesday morning but the swell will be on the small side of the coin by then, with Wednesday being a better pick thanks to the arrival of a new mid-period W/SW swell later Tuesday.

The source is a board but relatively weak low firing up to the south-east of South Africa, generated a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW-SW winds, breaking down slowly through today.

This should produce some good sized swell to 4-6ft across the South West with tiny 1-1.5ft waves to the north Wednesday morning under E-E/NE breezes.

The swell will then fade into the end of the week as winds go a little funky, but we’ll have a closer look at this and the longer term outlook on Monday. Have a great weekend!